Horse Racing,  Tipping

Pinjarra 06/01/2021

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 22 degrees, showers developing

Race 1 – Hygain Maiden – 1000m – 11:48pm

Wise Cracker hasn’t raced since July and does come into this race without a trial, though she has placed first up before (1:0-1-0). All of her runs have also come at this track and on a soft track (4:0-2-2) so should the rain have affected Pinjarra by now, it’s going to benefit her. She is up in class and is yet to race at 1000m, but she does have a good barrier. She should only improve off this run. Tallinn went close to winning last start after coming from last to finish second. He drops back in distance, which is interesting to see, given that he hasn’t raced over 1000m. He’s yet to win in ten starts though (10:0-2-1), but maybe the shorter distance can help change this. He has drawn wide, however, that turn of foot should help him overcome it. Look for him to go one better. Centenary Road made up a bit of ground midfield and managed to hold his position to finish third at his first race last start. With one race under his belt, his racing manners should improve here. If he jumps well from barrier one, he also should get a lovely position. He’s placed at this track/distance before (1:0-0-1), which was last start. There’s no reason why he should run a bad race. Superlove certainly doesn’t have the strongest form, but she is yet to finish outside of the top three in her career (3:0-1-2). The wide barrier does look to pose a few problems, but she has placed third from barrier nine before (at Narrogin). Her trial leading into this race was quiet, but she has placed first up before (2:0-0-2) and at this track (1:0-0-1). She’s untried at this distance and on a soft track, but she can get her maiden win here.
6 – Wise Cracker
1 – Tallinn
4 – Centenary Road
10 – Superlove

Race 2 – TABtouch – Better Your Club Handicap – 2000m – 12:23pm

Cousin Ivan has been improving with each run this preparation, finishing second last start at Ascot. He jumps up in distance here, which is certainly going to suit him seeing that he’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0) and that run was at listed level. He’s got a good barrier and Pike retains the ride. The biggest concern is that he has to carry 61.5kg, which over a long distance like this, may take its toll. If he can overcome this though, he can win. Our Idyll was blocked in the straight for ages last start, so perhaps would have gone closer if she had gotten a clear run. She steps up in distance here and is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). She really does love Pinjarra too (4:3-0-1). A few red flags for me are that she has drawn extremely wide, and while she is versatile in where she can sit in the run, this could cause a few problems. That barrier combined with the 60kg she has to carry make this race a tough ask. However, she has ability, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her winning here. Winifer has improved out of sight at her last two starts, recording a second and a first. Those two runs were over 2200m, so we know she’ll handle the distance. However, I do think she prefers 2200m to the 2000m here (1:0-0-0). She has a good turn of foot, which should help from barrier seven, plus she only has to carry 56kg with Kristy’s claim (1.5kg more than last start). If she continues on this path, she can surprise. Ouqba Ted finished sixth to Winifer last start, but then beat her the start before that, so this definitely looks like good form to follow. He had a few excuses last start, though if he misses the start again from barrier nine, it could be game over. He drops down in distance, though has been performing well at 2200m. I question whether he’s not a Pinjarra horse (4:0-0-0), but at least he only has to carry 59.5kg with Laqdar’s claim, which certainly puts him back in the race. Not without his chances.
2 – Cousin Ivan
3 – Our Idyll
7 – Winifer
1 – Ouqba Ted

Race 3 – BNL Contracting Handicap – 1400m –1:02pm

Uncle Dick is yet to place outside of the top three in his career (4:2-1-1). He’s had just the one trial leading into this race but is unbeaten first up (1:1-0-0) and at this distance (1:1-0-0), plus he likes Pinjarra (2:1-1-0). He placed third in the listed Aquanita, so is really quite well weighted. I just hope he doesn’t get stuck on the rail from barrier one. Connections would be disappointed if he didn’t place in the first few. Hip Wiggle was a touch under par first up but did go into that race without a trial and the stewards’ report said that the rider thought she felt uncomfortable during the run. She’s placed second up before (4:0-1-2), though never at this distance (3:0-0-0) or track/distance (1:0-0-0). However, she’s placed multiple times before over 1300m, so you’d think the 1400m shouldn’t cause too much trouble. She’s won from barrier eleven before and drops 3kg off last start. No reason why she can’t win here but she’ll only improve next over more distance. Great value tip! What About Moses has been winning/placing quite consistently this preparation. He has had 4 weeks off since his last run, so slight question mark over why that is the case. However, he does do his best work when he’s fresh. He’s placed at this distance before (4:0-0-2), though never this track/distance (1:0-0-0). He should get a lovely position from barrier five and I liked the form he brings from last start. His lack of a turn of foot might just leave him vulnerable against my top two tips. Wakan Tanka has been disappointing at his last two starts, with nothing written up in the stewards’ report. Given that he has quite a good distance record (7:1-2-1) and track record (2:0-1-1), I think he could run a cheeky race. His biggest advantage is going to be if the rain comes, as all of his wins have come on a soft track (7:2-1-2). If the rain does come, he could surprise.
6 – Uncle Dick
9 – Hip Wiggle
7 – What About Moses
10 – Wakan Tanka

Race 4 – Pearce Racing Yearling Parade 21st Feb Handicap – 1400m – 1:42pm

Giant Leap has just found one better at each of his two starts this preparation and I’m hoping that won’t be the case here. He can be his own worst enemy, as we saw last start. Pike jumps off in favour of Heels A Plenty, though I suspect that Mr Peters may have been wanting to use Laqdar’s claim, as it means this horse only has to carry 56kg, making him very competitive. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and the rain is only going to improve his chances (4:2-2-0). The wide barrier is the only chink in his armour. Heels A Plenty steps up in class but is coming off two wins. She steps up to 1400m for the first time but has won previously over 1300m and at this track (2:1-0-0). As I mentioned before, Pike has also elected to ride her over Giant Leap, which would help your confidence if you’re on this horse. Really not much to complain about, which makes her $12 opening price very attractive. Class is the only thing that will get in her way. Beat The Bro had a bit of a hiccup last start, as he got held up the entire length of the straight. Plus, he pulled up lame too. That was his first time out of the top two this preparation, so look for him to bounce back here. He’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0) but has placed at 1400m before (6:0-3-1) and won at this track (4:2-0-1). He’s another horse that will benefit from the rain coming too (3:1-2-0). He’s drawn extremely wide which is a concern, but he has previously shown that he does have a turn of foot. He’s another winning chance. Beret did well to finish as close as she did last start given the number of excuses in the stewards’ report. She’s drawn a much worse barrier here though, so if she misses the jump again, it’s going to make it a difficult task for her. What I really love about her is her distance record (6:2-1-3). She’ll be spot on fitness wise too. She rounds out a very even race!
2 – Giant Leap
14 – Heels A Plenty
4 – Beat The Bro
6 – Beret

Race 5 – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1300m – 2:22pm

Ginger Flyer looks to be in for a good preparation after recording a win and third. She likes to lead so barrier ten could be a blessing in disguise, as it will allow her to go forward. The addition of the blinkers again may also help her to settle. She races below 1400m for the first time, but this should only give them less time to catch her. She’s placed at this track before too (3:0-1-2). She should run a good race. Double Spice is coming off a first up win over 1400m. He has won at this distance before (2:1-0-0) and placed at Pinjarra (1:0-0-1) but never faced the conditions together. He does drop 2kg on last start due to the class increase, plus he’s got a good barrier. He’s yet to place second up (1:0-0-0) but given that all of his wins have been for Shaun McGruddy (2:2-0-0), this could change here. Luke’s Choice had a few excuses last start, though perhaps still should have performed a little better. Stepping up in distance looks to suit, though he’s never placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-0). He does, however, like Pinjarra (6:2-2-0) and will only have to carry 56kg with Carleen’s claim. He may just become one of many horses that fall victim to a wide barrier at this meeting. Oxbridge is coming off two wins leading into this race and has been pretty consistent this preparation. Those races were in the country and, therefore, a lower class, so slight question mark over whether he can match these horses. Despite only winning over this distance once (2:1-0-0), based on his other performances, it looks to suit. He doesn’t seem to have a turn of foot, so a concern would be that he gets too far back from that barrier. Good place bet in this even race!
3 – Ginger Flyer
4 – Double Spice
1 – Luke’s Choice
7 – Oxbridge

Race 6 – Thoroughbred Breeders WA Pearl Classic – 1300m – 2:59pm

Indigo Blue certainly didn’t disgrace herself when she finished second in the group 3 Champion Fillies last preparation. This race was on a heavy track, suggesting that she’ll handle the soft conditions should the rain come. She doesn’t increase in the weights at all, despite that result, and has a much better barrier this time. She’s won a trial leading into this race and placed first up before (1:0-1-0), though has never placed at this distance (1:0-0-0) or faced Pinjarra. She’s potentially looking for a touch more distance, but she should make her mark here. Bee Quick caught me a bit by surprise last start with her win, beating Giant Leap in the process, which is very good form. She races at 1300m for the first time, but has previously won over 1200m and 1400m, so this distance shouldn’t be an issue. She’s up in class and does rise 0.5kg off last start’s win, which is partly due to Carleen’s 3kg claim. She’s won at this track before (3:1-0-1) and should easily find the front from barrier one. No reason why she can’t win and is great value in this open race. Fa’lion Maschine has finished third at both starts this preparation, showing a good turn of foot in the process. She’s going to be needing this turn of foot to help overcome barrier fifteen. She’s actually unbeaten over this distance (2:2-0-0) but isn’t the biggest Pinjarra fan (3:0-0-1). She only has to carry 55kg with Madi’s claim and is another great value tip. Dani Bella is in career best form coming into this race, where she is looking to make it four wins in a row. Those wins have been in a significantly lower class, but she deserves a crack at this. She also likes to lead, so from barrier thirteen, I suspect she’ll settle just outside of Bee Quick. She races at 1300m for the first time, but again, it doesn’t look to be a problem. She also has a good track record (3:2-0-1) and carries a very competitive 54.5kg due to Laqdar’s claim. The wide barrier and class may just get her, but she rounds out a race where you can make a case for nearly every horse!
10 – Indigo Blue
2 – Bee Quick
3 – Fa’lion Maschine
4 – Dani Bella

Race 7 – Ducimus Crown – 1200m – 3:35pm

Weaponson showed a really good turn of foot last start, which is something we’re not used to seeing from him. He’s just flying this preparation (without winning all the time) and he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). Finally, we’ve got a better barrier and he only has to carry a very competitive 53kg with Kristy’s claim. You all know I rarely/never put my own horses on top and while I haven’t heard from David yet, Weaponson always runs an honest race. Captain Kink won at his first up race. He steps up in distance here, which he has won over before (5:2-1-0). He’s a very consistent horse, and with not a lot of speed in the race, he should easily get to the front from barrier eight, even if he has to use a bit of energy earlier on. He’s yet to win second up (1:0-0-1), but I’m clutching at straws trying to find complaints about him. He can easily win this. Resortman has had a maintenance trial between runs, which he won. He has been a bit hit and miss lately, though, with his distance record (4:3-0-1), he could very well hit the mark here. His usual rider Kyra does jump off in favour of Diablerie, but Chris is riding extremely well at the moment. He’ll probably have to use a bit of energy to get a forward position from the wide barrier, but he should run a good race. Tommy Blue was probably her own worst enemy last start, with not even Pike being able to save her. Pike sticks with her here though, which suggests that he does like she has some ability. She has a good track/distance record (2:1-1-0) and is third up, so should be spot on fitness wise. As long as she jumps well from barrier one, she should be able to settle just off the speed. Look for her to bounce back here.
9 – Weaponson
4 – Captain Kink
11 – Resortman
13 – Tommy Blue

Race 8 – Magic Millions WA 2YO Classic – 1200m – 4:12pm

Sniparoochy is unbeaten in her two career starts (2:2-0-0). She had the one “quiet” maintenance trial between runs in which she absolutely smashed them, winning by 9.8L. She’s drawn lovely in barrier 3, so she should easily find the front, with Heavenly Waters looking like the only horse that might challenge her, though she has drawn out wide. This horse is unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0) and really doesn’t have to give the other horse much, if any, weight even given her results. Anything can happen in a two-year-old race, but you’d be disappointed if she didn’t finish in the first couple. Michelada is also unbeaten in her career, though she’s only had the one start (1:1-0-0). That race was also over 1000m, so she steps up in distance. There is the possibility that she could get back from that barrier, which is a position she’s untested in. However, having Pike ride in a feature race is always a positive. There’s no reason why she can’t win. Ex Sport Man has finished second to Sniparoochy at both of his starts, though at least this is pretty good form to follow. He too has had a trial between runs, with him finishing second by the shortest margin. Despite losing to Sniparoochy, he doesn’t get any weight on her as a result. He’s also drawn slightly worse than her here. Only time will tell as to whether he can turn the tables. Sneaky Chance is exactly that, a sneaky chance here. She ran the quickest 600m when she finished third to Michelada, which is good form going into this race. From barrier five she might be able to settle further forward in the run and stepping up in distance could be what she’s asking for, as this will only give her more time to catch them. She rounds out a competitive edition of this year’s two-year-old Magic Millions.
5 – Sniparoochy
7 – Michelada
1 – Ex Sport Man
8 – Sneaky Chance

Race 9 – Magic Millions WA 3YO Trophy – 1200m – 4:47pm

Island Charm marked herself as a real contender last start, winning by nearly two lengths. She perhaps is slightly more comfortable over 1000m, but she has won over 1200m before (2:1-0-0). She’s yet to finish outside the top four in her careers, has drawn a good barrier and isn’t penalised in the weights for her win. Fingers crossed for a repeat of last start’s performance. Iseered Iseered finished second to Island Charm in one of the key lead up races. He gets 1kg on her here, but I don’t think that alone is enough to turn the tables, especially when he’s drawn wider than she has. He’s got great career statistics (2:1-1-0) and is not without his fair share of ability. If the rain comes by now it’s really going to be in his favour (1:1-0-0). Winning chance. Outback Jack brings slightly different and weaker form lines to this race, but his career statistics are still impressive nevertheless (4:2-1-1). He’s won a trial leading into this race and has placed first up before (1:0-1-0). One thing we know for sure is that he’s probably looking for more distance, having won over 1400m and 1700m. The barrier may cause him a few problems too. At $11, I wouldn’t rule him out. Gemma’s Son won the two-year-old edition of this race last year, but then kind of failed when stepping up to group 2 and 1 level. He finished third to Island Charm last start and while he has had a long preparation, his races have been spaced, which is good as he does his best work fresh. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), has a good barrier and isn’t penalised in the weights at all given that he finished fourth in a group 2. He can bounce back to winning ways here.
10 – Island Charm
7 – Iseered Iseered
6 – Outback Jack
1 – Gemma’s Son

Race 10 – TABtouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1600m – 5:27pm

Montelena ended last preparation on fire and she looks to back for another good preparation after winning a trial leading into this race. She’s won first up before (3:1-0-1) and at this distance (3:2-0-0), though surprisingly, she’s never raced at Pinjarra. Her barrier and weight are in her favour, plus if the rain comes, it will only help her chances. She will only improve next start over a bit more distance. Last Of The Line is going to give Montelena a run for her money. Unlike her though, he steps up to 1600m for the first time. He’s yet to place outside of the top three though (7:5-0-2), so does have a bit more ability on his side. He’s up in class, so drops 2.5kg on last start and from barrier one, should be able to sit just behind the leaders. He’s on the one-week backup but is a huge threat to my top tip. She’s Alight showed that good turn of foot last start to cause a bit of an upset. She steps up ever so slightly in distance but has won over 1600m before (3:1-1-1). She rises 2kg on last start but given that she won and placed second in listed races this preparation, she is still well weight. If she brings that turn of foot, she can surprise again. Tollman placed second to Last Of The Line last start but only gets 1.5kg on him here. Given that this horse had an ideal run in that race, I don’t think it’s enough to turn the tables on its own. Rising in distance should help his chances, plus he’s placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). His last two starts at this distance he has won, but the form surrounding those races isn’t as strong. I think he’ll find one better, but he does round out an even race.
7 – Montelena
12 – Last Of The Line
6 – She’s Alight
8 – Tollman


Best Bet

Race 10 – Montelena

Confidence rating

I think I’ve hit rock bottom when it comes to my confidence levels! If I had to pick races that I’m particularly worried about, it would be races 1, 4, 5, 8, 9 and 10, while race 6 can only be described as an absolute nightmare! The only reason Montelena is my best bet is I think she’ll at least place and she’s good value. Hoping for a winning day all-round!

Last Week’s Results

R3- boxed first four
Winners in top 4- 6/8
Top picks: -, 3rd, 3rd, 1st, -, -, -, –
Best bet: 1st
Profit: -9.02

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