Horse Racing,  Tipping

Melbourne Cup 2021

Melbourne Cup Tips

1 – Twilight Payment

58kg, T: Joseph O’Brien, J: Jye McNeil, Barrier: 2

He won the Melbourne Cup last year, so we know that he’ll handle conditions here. He’s up in the weights and only 5 horses in history have won multiple Melbourne Cups. He’s followed a similar preparation to last year and recorded nearly the same results. The only problem is that he’s not going to be given the lead as easier this time and the extra weight will make leading that little bit harder. He fought really hard to the line last start and I think he can make history here as the oldest horse to win the Cup.

2 – Incentivise

57kg, T: Peter Moody, J: Brett Prebble, Barrier: 16

He’s won 9 races in a row, including the Caulfield Cup last start. Due to that win, he does have to give some of these horses weight. I loved how he powered home given that he was wide the entire way too. He’s unbeaten at Flemington (2:2-0-0), but he does step up in distance for the first time. If he can handle that from barrier 16 and doesn’t get too far back. It’s not hard to see why he’s the favourite, though odds as short as his do make me nervous.

3 – Spanish Mission

57kg, T: Andrew Balding, J: Craig Williams, Barrier: 14

He’s an international horse having his first run in Australia. He’s yet to place over 3200m (3:0-0-0), but his other runs don’t point to any reason on why he shouldn’t handle it. He does well when his runs are spaced, so he should run a good race here.

4 – Verry Elleegant

57kg, T: Chris Waller, J: James McDonald, Barrier: 19

She finished 7th in the Cup last year. She’s always in the finish and fights hard in every race. She would have preferred the cut out of the ground and she had drawn wide. She can improve here though at good odds.

5 – Explosive Jack

54kg, T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustance, J: John Allen, Barrier: 4

His performances this preparation just really haven’t been up to his standards. I’m not really sure what’s gone wrong, other than the fact that he’s not handle the class. He is a derby winner, so if he can bounce back to last preparation’s form, he could surprise here.

6 – The Chosen One

54kg, T: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman, J: Damian Lane, Barrier: 5

He was just no match for Incentivise last start. His races before that suggest that he’s a better horse than that. He finished 4th in the Cup last year and 17th the year before that, so history suggests that he’ll improve here.

7 – Delphi

53.5kg, T: Anthony & Sam Freedman, J: Damien Oliver, Barrier 3

He had to go forward last start from the wide barrier in the Caulfield Cup. Leading all of the way and then having to go early certainly seemed to take a toll on him. He’s up a 1kg off that run but he does have a better barrier here. He also won the start before that in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes and returning to a good track will suit him. One thing to note is that he presented with mild-lameness on today and he’ll need to pass a vet inspection tomorrow. He’s good value.

8 – Ocean Billy

53.5kg, T: Chris Waller, J: Damien Thornton, Barrier: 13

He raced wide in the Caulfield Cup and he doesn’t like a soft track, so that was basically a waste of a run. That was also his first start in Australia (he normally races in New Zealand), so he should improve off it. His previous form isn’t that good, but surprisingly he’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0).

9 – Selino

53.5kg, T: Chris Waller, J: Ron Stewart, Barrier: 24

He won the Sydney Cup back in April and thanks to that run, he’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0). His other performances have been poor though and barrier 24 looks to cause all sorts of problems. Returning to a good track and the gear chances may lead to an improvement, but I’d be surprised to see him win.

10 – Johnny Get Angry

53kg, T: Denis Pagan, J: Lachlan King, Barrier: 22

He won the Victoria Derby last year, but really hadn’t shown anything this preparation. It’s hard to get excited about him.

11 – Knights Order

53kg, T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott, J: Daniel Stackhouse, Barrier: 9

He won the Winter Cup in Sydney and Brisbane Cup in Brisbane last preparation, so he should handle the distance here. While he normally takes a few runs to get going, he hasn’t showed this preparation. He also raced on Saturday, so is on the incredibly quick backup. He’s a roughie for a reason.

12 – Persan

53kg, T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustance, J: Luke Currie, Barrier: 11

He ran nicely in the Caulfield Cup and gets weight on Incentivise here. He came fifth in the Cup last year and probably has better results leading into that race. He’s consistent though and can go better this year.

13 – Carif

52.5kg, T: Peter & Paul Snowden, J: Blaike McDougall, Barrier: 8

He’s a hit and miss horse that struggled in listed company last start. He does have a good distance record (2:1-1-0), but he looks to be outclassed here.

14 – Master Of Wine

52.5kg, T: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes, J: Fred Kersley, Barrier: 6

He missed the start in the Caulfield Cup and then it was basically game over from there. He managed to run on two starts ago where he missed the jump as well. He has a good barrier but if he gets back, in such a large field it could be hard to make up group. He’s up in class as well, but with some luck, he could surprise. He’s just not consistent enough for me.

15 – Pondus

52.5kg, T: Robert Hickmott, J: Rachel King, Barrier: 1

An international horse that has raced in Australia prior to the Cup. He hasn’t finished that far off the winners in those two runs. He’ll be fit being third up and hopefully, he doesn’t get stuck on the rail from barrier 1. Never rule out the internationals who carry a low weight.

16 – Grand Promenade

52kg, T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustance, J: Kerrin McEvoy, Barrier: 21

He won The Bart Cummings to get into the Cup. He did have an ideal run in that race though. Question mark over whether he’ll handle the 3200m, seeing as he was tiring late, but he has previously handled 2600m. He’s been ultra consistent this preparation and loves Flemington (5:3-1-0). I’d be more confident on a soft track but he’s good value.

17 – Miami Bound

52kg, T: Danny O’Brien, J: Patrick Moloney, Barrier: 17

She finished 14th in the Cup last year. Her form leading into last year’s Cup wasn’t good and it’s the same story this year. She’s hard to have.

18 – Port Guillaume

52kg, T: Ben & JD Hayes, J: Harry Coffey, Barrier: 23

He’s an international that really hasn’t shown much in his four races in Australia. He had 50 weeks between racing overseas and in Australia, so maybe he needed those runs to gain some fitness. Returning to a good track will help but he’s at long odds for a reason.

19 – She’s Ideel

52kg, T: Bjorn Baker, J: Craig Newitt, Barrier: 20

She finished fourth in the Sydney Cup back in April, so this suggests that she should see out the distance here. She had every chance in the Caulfield Cup, but ultimately she was no match for Incentivise. Her mixed form combined with barrier 20 may just be too much for her.

20 – Future Score (scratched)

51.5kg, T: Matt Cumani, J: Dean Yendall, Barrier: 15

He hasn’t really shown much this preparation and was definitely going better this time last year. I question why he had 44 weeks between preparation. He probably would have needed the runs for fitness and returning to Flemington will help given his track record (3:1-0-1). He steps up to 3200m for the first time and he drops 4.5kg off last start’s run. He’ll need to improve here if he’s going to win though.

21 – Tralee Rose

51kg, T: Symon Wilde, J: Dean Holland, Barrier: 12

She won the Geelong Cup coming into the Cup and while it might sound silly, my grandparents always think that the Geelong Cup is good form to follow. I really liked how she handled the pressure applied by Dr Drill in that run too, which should hold her in good stead here. She had an ideal run in the Geelong Cup and The Bart Cummings, but from barrier 12, she should get an ok position. She’s up in class but she did finish fourth over this distance in March, even though she was coming to the end of her preparation. At her odds, I had to put her in my top 4.

22 – Floating Artist

50kg, T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustance, J: Teo Nugent, Barrier: 10

He was three wide, no cover in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but he eventually got an ideal spot. He nearly won the race and his jockey didn’t move on him too late. He’s up in distance but is unbeaten at Flemington (1:1-0-0). It’s hard to fault him.

23 – Great House

50kg, T: Chris Waller, J: Michael Dee, Barrier: 7

He won the Hotham Handicap on Saturday to get into the Cup and as result, he has a good track record (2:1-0-1). His form, weight and barrier are all ticks. I’m just always nervous about horses backing up that quickly. It’s hard to knock winning form though.

24 – Sir Lucan

50kg, T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott, J: Glen Boss, Barrier: 18

He is a full brother to Sir Dragonet who won the Cox Plate last year, so genetics suggest that she should stay. He’s yet to race in Australia and his international results are mixed. Glen Boss knows how to ride the family and group 1 winners and with just 50kg on his back, he can surprise.

Amy’s Top 4

21 – Tralee Rose
2 – Incentivise
16 – Grand Promenade
4 – Verry Elleegant

Roughie: 22 – Floating Artist

Don’t forget about

1 – Twilight Payment
12 – Persan

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