Melbourne Cup 2020
Melbourne Cup Tips
1 – Anthony Van Dyck
He had his ears pricked really nicely during his Prix win in the UK, but then also flattened them on the line, fighting hard. It was a similar situation in the Caulfield Cup where he finished second behind Verry Elleegant who he gets 0.5kg on. The weight is the only concern for me. It pained me not to include him in my top four.
2 – Avilius
He’s a bit hit and miss lately. He seems to prefer Sydney, which resulted in him not making my top 15 (number of horses that made it through the first stage of elimination).
3 – Vow And Declare
He won this race last year but we really haven’t seen the same horse since. Given the history of going back to back in Cups and his form I couldn’t have him.
4 – Master Of Reality
He finished fourth in the Cup last year. Arguably he’s in better horse with better form this year. He does has the synthetic hoof filler for the first time which is a bit of a concern.
5 – Sir Dragonet
He won the Cox Plate leading into this race and really isn’t penalised too badly. Glen Boss retains the ride. His second up record is good (3:1-1-0), though connections would have been praying for rain. He’s on the ten day back up and steps up in distance but should go well.
6 – Twilight Payment
He finished eleventh in the Cup last year. He’s definitely in better form this year and there’s no query on the distance at all (4:1-1-1). Good value bet.
7 – Verry Elleegant
She is a very consistent mare. She won the Caulfield Cup leading into this racing, showing a good turn of foot in the process. The distance is the only concern.
8 – Mustajeer’s
His form leading into this race just wasn’t good enough for me. He finished 23rd in last year’s Cup and it’s hard to see things changing here.
9 – Stratum Albion
He did place second in the UK about ten weeks ago. His form prior to that wasn’t the best, but maybe he didn’t handle the soft track. Age is definitely not on his side either. Outsider that’s for sure.
10 – Dashing Willoughby
He’s a bit of a hit and miss horse. He lead all the way to win three starts ago in the UK, beating Cross Counter in the process who won the Cup a few years ago. Given his Caulfield Cup run it was hard to get excited about him.
11 – Finche
He finished seventh in the Cup last year and fourth in 2018 He had a few excuses last start where he finished fifth in the Caulfield Cup. His form prior to that was good, with two thirds. He’ll appreciate a good track and can bounce back here.
12 – Prince Of Arran
He finished fourth in the Caulfield Cup after not having an ideal position in running (near last). He finished second in the Cup last year and third in 2018 (can it be third time lucky?). He has good international form and Jamie Kah is on fire. Not exactly what draw me towards him but I think he’ll go well.
13 – Surprise Baby
He has only had two runs since finishing fifth in the Cup last year. He had a few excuses last start after getting held up in the straight. His barrier, weight and jockey are all in his favour and he is proven over 3200m (2:1-0-0). In with a chance here.
14 – King Of Leogrance (scratched)
He won the Adelaide Cup early this year over 3200m, resulting in him being unbeaten over this distance (1:1-0-0). He’s won third up before (3:2-0-0) and placed third in the Geelong Cup which is considered to be a key lead up race. Just the form surrounding his good races is a concern.
15 – Russian Camelot
He’s a very good horse and has a bright future. He’s got a good jockey in Damien Oliver, who he just loves to run for (7:3-3-1) and is low in the weights. He’ll appreciate the good track, with the step up in distance being the only question mark for me.
16 – Steel Prince
He won the Geelong Cup leading into this race. He was disappointing between August 2019 to August this year. He did beat Surprise Baby in May last year before finishing ninth in the Cup later that year. The form surrounding his races isn’t the best.
17 – The Chosen One
He placed second in the Sydney Cup, which is over 3200m too, with his other good performance being his third in the Caulfield Cup. Other than that he’s a hit and miss horse with an outside chance.
18 – Ashrun
He has been in very good form, since arriving from overseas. He booked his spot in the race after winning on Saturday. This will be his third run in just under two weeks and this is a bit of a turn off for me. Form wise he could surprise.
19 – Warning
He won the Derby this time last year but really hasn’t put in any good runs since, besides two thirds in Adelaide in a lower grade. Not for me.
20 – Etah James
She’s proven at this distance after winning the Sydney Cup in April. She hasn’t really sparked since and certainly would have preferred a soft track. Looks to be outclassed here.
21 – Tiger Moth
He was the first horse through to my top four. I said to my friend that a light weight international would be the way to go and this horse ticks a lot of my boxes. He steps up in distance but is proven over 2414m. He’s lightly raced but has great career statistics (4:2-1-1) and goes well fresh (3:2-0-1). He’s low in the weights and both his trainer and jockey have won the Melbourne Cup before. The extremely wide barrier is the major concern.
22 – Oceanex
She did run well last start, finishing third in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. The soft track may have benefited her there though, which is something she certainly won’t get here. She was one of the first horses I crossed out because I just think she’ll struggle in the class when combined with a good track.
23 – Miami Bound
She put in a really good performance when winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. This time last year she was in career-best form. Danny O’Brien won the Cup last year and she has an incredibly low weight. Whether the good/firm ground will get the better of her is a question.
24 – Persan
He’s yet to place outside the top three this preparation. He has been racing since April though, so question mark on whether he’s had enough. He has a very good track record (5:4-1-0), winning in October to get into this race. The very quick back up and wide barrier are a concern. He’s a great value tip though.
Amy’s Top 4
21 – Tiger Moth
12 – Prince Of Arran
24 – Persan
15 – Russian Camelot
Don’t forget about
1 – Anthony Van Dyck
5 – Sir Dragonet
