Horse Racing,  Tipping

Kalgoorlie 03/10/2020

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 16 degrees, possible shower

Race 1 – Yarradale Stud Tom Sayers Memorial Handicap – 1760m – 12:13pm

Cuban Twist ended last preparation really strongly, recording 3 wins after heading to Kalgoorlie after coming out of the Belmont Oaks. She’s unbeaten at this distance (4:4-0-0) and track/distance (2:2-0-0), which certainly made me lean more towards her (hence she’s my top tip). She’s yet to win first up (2:0-1-0), but her winning trialling leading into this race suggests that this can change here. She should be right in the finish. Magic Will Reign is the definition of consistent, recording five seconds and two wins from seven starts since June. He’s actually been racing since March, so has been up for a long time, but when they’re racing this well why stop. He does have a great turn of foot, which we saw two and four starts ago, where he came from near the back to win both. This suggests that he does do his best racing from the rear of the field and with such a small field here, he’s not going to get too far back, making his turn of foot deadly. The only reason he’s further down my list is that the form surrounding his races isn’t as strong as my top tip and he’s yet to win at this track/distance (2:0-2-0). No reason why he can’t win here though. Staaden won very convincingly two start ago (because he raced on Thursday) at this track/distance, all while carrying 60.5kg. He drops down to 58.5kg due to the rise in class, but this doesn’t look too difficult for him, especially given his city form around Sugar Cain three starts ago. He’s drawn a lovely barrier and 1600-1760m definitely looks to be his ideal distance. Due to last start and Thursday’s win, he is unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). He should put in another good performance. Street Fair comes to Kalgoorlie for the first time, which does raise a few questions, as some horses don’t handle this track very well. His form is probably some of the best in this race, though his results have varied. He’s placed at this distance before (2:0-0-1) but is yet to win on a good track (11:0-2-1), which he’s definitely going to get here. He can run on to some extent too, so with the drop in class but no weight penalty, he should find this race a little easier.
2 – Cuban Twist
3 – Magic Will Reign
4 – Staaden
7 – Street Fair

Race 2 – MCE Handicap – 2100m – 12:52pm

Frosty Heart comes into this race having won his last two races. His results before that certainly weren’t the best, so things must have just clicked for him. The distance is a bit of a concern (3:0-0-0) but he won over 2100m two starts ago, so I don’t think it’s as bad as it looks. He can run on from mid-field, so the small field here will benefit, plus he should get into a lovely position from that barrier. I’m hoping he can continue his winning streak here. Bollinger Boy seems to get a bit too far back in his races, putting him at a disadvantage without a turn of foot. From the inside barrier, he should be able to take up a more forward position, as long as not too many horses cross him. Again though, the small field should mean that he won’t get too far back. He had over a year off prior to this preparation and I’m just not sure he’s returned to his old self, though there have been a few excuses in the stewards’ reports. He’s placed at this distance before (2:0-0-1) and can hopefully bounce back to his Geraldton December 2018 form in this weaker field. Pink And Purple was disappointing last start, but looked to have gotten way too far back and perhaps even stuck in traffic (without having watched the replay), so put a line through that run. Before that she had been racing well. Kyra was riding her then, so it’s good to see them team up again. All of her wins have come at this track and she’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). She did show a good turn of foot two starts ago, so this will hopefully offset the wide barrier. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see which version of her turns up. So Schmick is having his first start in WA after coming over from Victoria. His results are a bit hit and miss, but definitely nothing terrible. He has had two fail to finishes so it sounds like he could be his own worst enemy. He comes into this race without a trial and his first up record is ok (4:0-2-0). One thing definitely going in his favour is the distance (5:2-2-0). Interesting to see how he’ll perform in WA company.
3 – Frosty Heart
4 – Pink And Purple
1 – Bollinger Boy
2 – So Schmick

Race 3 – Suez Maiden – 1100m – 1:32pm

Brave Dream just got too far back first up and got held up in the straight according to the stewards’ report. Her last 600m times are some of the best in this race. This could be very valuable here, especially as she shouldn’t get too far back from that barrier. She’s yet to race at this track or distance but seems to have ability and should appreciate the weaker class. Iseered Iseered has only had the one trial which he won. That was back in May though, so there’s a question mark over what has happened between now and then. However, I think connections are making a smart move building up his confidence in the country. He’s got a good barrier and Kyra is riding very well at the moment. He should only improve off this run. Bosnipp was disappointing last time she was in Kalgoorlie, but she certainly wasn’t on her best behaviour and was then sent for a spell. She comes into this race without a trial but has placed first up before (1:0-0-1). Both of her career places (3:0-0-2) have come at Belmont, which is good form, but that track is significantly softer than Kalgoorlie (from what I’ve heard in the past). She finally gets a good barrier and if she can bring her city form, she can surprise. Tallinn has hopefully come back bigger and stronger, after winning a trial leading into this race. He’s had five months off since last preparation which should have given him time to mature. His races last preparation wasn’t all of a disaster but connections would have been disappointed. From barrier one, he’ll hopefully settle into a forward position as it doesn’t look like he has the speed to match my top tip. Mitchell takes the ride for the first time, which is good because he knows Kalgoorlie like the back of his hand. This horse may just find one or two better here.
7 – Brave Dream
8 – Iseered Iseered
6 – Bosnipp
1 – Tallinn

Race 4 – LD Total Handicap – 1100m – 2:12pm

Some Sort was on fire this time last year, but really didn’t perform well at Ascot in February, though there were a few excuses in the stewards’ report. His winning trial leading into this race suggests that he’s back to his former self and he has won first up before (3:1-0-0). His form is some of the best, but he may have to take a seat behind the leaders, with a few horses looking to go forward (hopefully they don’t go too fast for him though). With a good barrier and weight, look for him to bounce back here. Mervyn was racing quite well in the city, so it’s a surprise to see him here. He finished third in a listed race in July, which does mean he was lumped 62kg here. Thanks to Laqdar’s claim though, he does just have to carry 59kg, which puts in back in the race. Between that listed races and his fifth in the group 3 Northam Stakes, the form surrounding his races is amazing. He’s had nearly two months off since his last race, but he does go well fresh (8:1-4-1). Combined with his great track/distance record (9:2-5-0) he should be right in the finish. Sherpa Lass is in a bit of a similar spot to Some Sort, hitting a rough patch at her last three starts. Prior to that she was unbeaten (7:4-0-0), so I’m not sure exactly what happened between March and April this year. Connections probably would have been hoping to build her confidence up again here, but this race has plenty of city class about it. What will benefit her is that she’s unbeaten first up (2:2-0-0) and at this distance (1:1-0-0). It’s a bit hard to tell where she’s at fitness wise without a trial, but she can easily win this. Night Voyage was a bit hit and miss in the city but nothing major to complain about. The large weights may have been taking their toll, so it’s good to see him drop 3.5kg off last start’s run. His last 600m times have been good, but they’ve obviously been going just that bit too quick for him in the city. He has won at this distance before (4:1-0-1) and this track (2:1-0-0) but there’s just a few horses who are early on in their career compared to him.
8 – Some Sort
1 – Mervyn
7 – Sherpa Lass
2 – Night Voyage

Race 5 – Neo Metals Handicap – 1300m – 2:52pm

Indigo Blue is a surprise to see her after she had been racing so well at Belmont. She’s been improving with each run which is good to see and has good form surrounding her races. She’s yet to race at this distance, but the extra 100m doesn’t look to be a problem. The wide barrier is a concern, as she wouldn’t want to get too far back. Ability should see her winning this. Carabinier looks to be in for a good preparation after winning first up. His races last preparation was also quite good, besides his last one, where he obviously had just had enough. He’s yet to even place second up (3:0-0-0) or at this distance (1:0-0-0). However, his last two starts at 1200m he’s won, so the 1300m really shouldn’t be a problem. He may be another victim to the wide barrier, but he should run a good race. Beethoven showed a really nice turn of foot last start, where he came from last to win at Kalgoorlie. That was with 60.5kg on his back too, which makes it even more impressive. He drops 4kg off that run due to the rise in class. That start was his only win at this track (4:1-0-0) and his performance prior to that (last preparation) weren’t very good, but maybe he’s turned over a new leaf. His second up record is good (3:1-1-0) but my top two tips seem to just have that edge over him. Mr Genoa returns to where he does his best work. This time last year he was on fire at Kalgoorlie and is actually unbeaten at this track (3:3-0-0). He then failed to fire in the city, which could have been a combination of being slightly outclassed and getting too far back. He’s drawn wide here, so might get a bit further back than than I would have liked, though he can run on to some extent. His first up record is great (6:3-0-1) and it would be nice to see him bounce back to his former self.
9 – Indigo Blue
4 – Carabinier
5 – Beethoven
7 – Unbreakable

Race 6 – City Of Kalgoorlie Boulder Handicap – 1600m – 3:30pm

Bogart brings great form from the listed J C Roberts and Melvista which he competed in earlier this year. There was certainly nothing to complain about with those runs, he just found one better on the day. He looks to be continuing this good form, winning a trial before placing forth second up. He’s yet to place second up (2:0-0-0) or at this distance (2:0-0-0). However, with the scratchings and his ability, this looks to be a very suitable race. Recapitulate has won his last two starts at Kalgoorlie. Leading all the way looked to suit him at those starts, plus perhaps he just loves to run for Madi. He’s drawn wide here, but that should enable him to go forward, especially with no one else looking for the lead. The form surrounding those wins could be stronger, but he brings confidence from those wins and has a great track/distance record (3:2-1-0). He’ll only have to carry 51kg with Madi’s claim and should be right in the finish. Sluice Box simply got too far back at his previous two runs, so just put a line through them. Prior to that he was racing really well, with form behind Magic Will Reign and Cuban Twist, who I have a high opinion of in the first race. He’ll appreciate the small field as he won’t get too far back. Combined with his good track/distance record (3:1-1-0) he could surprise. Stratocreed put in a nice performance at his previous two starts, where he finished third. He doesn’t settle too far back in his runs but stepping up in distance should only give him more time to run them down, despite having never placed at this distance (1:0-0-0). His track record is ok (6:0-1-2) and another placing is possible here.
3 – Bogart
7 – Recapitulate
9 – Sluice Box
10 – Stratocreed

Race 7 – Access Hire Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1400m – 4:10pm

Fiery Water has only placed outside of the top three once in his career, where he finished fourth (4:2-0-1). It looks like he should get the lead easily and be able to set the pace he wants. He drops 1.5kg due to the rise in class, but this race certainly doesn’t look to be any harder than what he’s faced before. He’s a horse on the way up and as long as he can handle the track he should go well. Staralign is a huge threat to my top tip! He’s been racing very consistently, winning three of his previous five starts. He’s yet to finish outside the top three at this track (5:3-1-1) and has a fantastic track/distance record (3:2-0-1). The only reason he’s further down my list, is that he doesn’t have city form like my top tip. He can absolutely win this! Native Chimes wasn’t at her best last start, though nothing revealed itself in the stewards’ report. Prior to that she had won her previous two starts. She has won at this track before (2:1-0-0), but it’s her distance record that really shines (6:1-2-1). I’m assuming that nothing was drastically wrong after last start, seeing as she’s running here, so as long as everything is ok, she should run a good race. Leading Man did put in a good performance last start where he finished second. He has won at this distance before (5:1–0-0) but that was literally years ago. He has changed trainers, which is interesting to note, so perhaps the change in environment will do him good. His only wins have come on a good track, but this race looks very competitive.
3 – Fiery Water
1 – Staralign
4 – Native Chimes
10 – Leading Man

Race 8 – Iron Jack Kalgoorlie Cup – 2200m – 4:45pm

Divine Shadow finished second to Friar Fox last start, which looks like good form to follow. He does get weight on her and the barrier draw has been reserved, with this now being in his favour. He has a turn of foot to match hers and was racing quite well in the city before coming to Kalgoorlie. With his consistency and having placed at this track (2:0-1-1) and distance (1:0-1-0), he can win this. Friar Fox has really found her stride since coming to Kalgoorlie. She won the key lead up race, which does mean that she has to carry 2kg more, giving weight to some of the other horses in this race. She’s also drawn slightly wider, though the turn of foot we saw first up should help her overcome that. She’s yet to win third up (5:0-1-0), but that can change here. Ihtsahymn is known as a bit of a country cup king. He missed the jump last start which probably put him at a disadvantage from the beginning. The 60kg over 2100m may have taken its toll too. He doesn’t get any weight relief here, which is a bit of a concern, though he has won with 61.5kg in August. His distance record is good (5:1-1-1) and he should go close. Come Play With Me looked to have bounced back from his eastern state trip with great trials, but then certainly wasn’t his best first up. His second up record isn’t much better (5:0-0-1) but at least he loves this distance (6:4-1-0). If he can handle carrying 62kg and brings his Eastern states form, he’s in with a chance.
6 – Divine Shadow
4 – Friar Fox
2 – Ihtsahymn
1 – Come Play With Me

Race 9 – Coastal Midwest Transport Handicap – 1200m – 5:25pm

Manhattan Money is on fire at the moment, having not placed outside of the top three this preparation (eight starts). She has a great track/distance record (4:2-1-1) and can run on from mid-field. The only concern is the wide barrier and whether she’ll get a bit too far back. I’d be super surprised if she doesn’t at least place though. Tajmali was a bit off first up but she was running really well last preparation. Her second up record is good (3:0-1-1), while her track/distance record is nearly faultless (3:2-1-0). Returning to a good track will certainly benefit and her city form is good. The only reason she’s not on top is that she’s not as consistent. Special Choice did run a great last 600m time last start, where she finished third behind Eeyore Wayz, however, I am surprised to see her as the favourite (at the time of writing this). Yes, she has a good barrier and has won at this distance before (3:1-1-0), but I think a few people are blinded by the cerise and white. She should improve second up and will probably make a fool of me now, but I wouldn’t be taking those short odds. Concrete Madame doesn’t look like an obvious top four horse, but she has some great statistics going in her favour. In particular, I like her track/distance record (5:1-2-1) and that she’ll only carry 53kg with Madi’s claim. This time last year she was doing some of her best work and she can surprise here at great odds.
1 – Manhattan Money
2 – Tajmali
3 – Special Choice
7 – Concrete Madame


Best Bet

Race 9 – Manhattan Money

Confidence rating

My confidence isn’t the best this week, which is mostly due to the fact that I’m not as familiar with the Kalgoorlie form or how the track plays. Races 3, 5, 6 and 9 are probably where I’m the most confident. I even considered putting Indigo Blue as my best bet, but not knowing how she’ll handle the track made me lean towards Manhattan Money.

Last Week’s Results

R1-quinella
Winners in top 4 – 6/9
Top picks: 2nd, -, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 3rd, -, -, –
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: -7.5

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