Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 31/08/2019

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Soft 6
Forecast – Max 20, showers 6-8 mm, mostly likely in the morning

Race 1 – Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1400m – 11:58pm

Osipova has trialled nicely which was on a soft track. She was obviously outclassed in the Natasha Stakes but her other runs have been good. Fair Glory seems to be a good horse and should be fit third up here. I’m going to forgive Universal Fury’s last start because it was his first time at the races, but his trial performances have been hit and miss which is a concern. Indian Chant races have been ok, but I would be looking to see her improve here with Pike jumping on board.
8 – Osipova
3 – Fair Glory
4 – Universal Fury
1 – Indian Chant

Race 2 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Plate – 1300m – 12:37pm

Superstorm has trialled very well but you never know with maidens and he could be needing the race day experience. Platinum Bullet gets a 2kg swing on Rocky Path and it looks like he could find the front. Apache Pass also gets 2kg on Rocky Path and I think he could surprise here. Rocky Path’s last race looks like the form to follow and I could be underestimating him here.
4 – Superstorm
5 – Platinum Bullet
1 – Apache Pass
2 – Rocky Path

Race 3 – Ascot Racing Carnival Handicap – 1000m – 1:17pm

Bel My Pago has had over a month between races, but she won last start and on a soft track. Exercise Free had nice trials and is a horse with very good form (7:3-2-0). Citichant seems to really be a 1000m horse (all 4 wins have been at this distance) and she is performing well. I’m impressed at the weights Night Voyage is carrying and still winning/placing. He does get a 1.5kg swing on Citichant who he beat last start, so I’m not sure how that handicapping works.
9 – Bel My Pago
5 – Exercise Free
4 – Citichant
1 – Night Voyage

Race 4 – Go Father’s Eve Racing For Free with Old Mates Handicap – 1000m – 1:57pm

Stageman has no Free Trade to verse this time and he does love a soft track (3:2-1-0). Don’t Fuss is very very consistent horse and he would be on top if it wasn’t for an excellent horse in Stageman, however, he could potentially cause an upset. Floyd had nice runs the previous two starts and has placed at all soft track starts (4:0-3-1). It was either Saracino or Just Act Natural and I’m going with Saracino because I think he’s got form behind some better horses.
6 – Stageman
3 – Don’t Fuss
5 – Floyd
2 – Saracino

Race 5 – Idyllic Prince Stakes – 1300m – 2:37pm

Gatting has many positives for him in this race, with a very nice trial, loving the wet (soft track 5:2-1-2 and heavy 1:1-0-0) plus no Galaxy Star. The stable will also want to see him do well here with the Melbourne trip coming up. I think Great Again is meeting a better horse in Gatting here, but with Pike on board and a fantastic soft track record (7:5-2-0), he could certainly give Gatting a run for his money. Variation trialled nice and has a good first up record (5:1-1-2) as well as a good track record (5:2-1-1). Multiverse could run a cheeky race.
1 – Gatting
5 – Great Again
4 – Variation
6 – Multiverse

Race 6 – Elijah Nathan 60th Birthday Handicap – 1200m – 3:18pm

Why Choose Her showed she was good enough last start, winning plus she is obviously a wet track horse, with her wins and place only coming from them (3:2-0-1). Wanna Be Good is a good sit and sprint horse and does get in well with the weight claim. Final Hearing should improve on last run. FalseStatement was very disappointing last start however he did have a reason and he was performing very well before that.
7 – Why Choose Her
1 – Wanna Be Good
4 – Final Hearing
2 – False Statement

Race 7 – The Carbine Club of WA-Apprentices’ Cup – 2200m – 3:55pm

You can’t knock Zaratite’s winning form and it is a positive that Kirby has ridden him before (and won) in a race where many of these apprentices haven’t ridden on their horse before. Paddy’s Shadow gets a massive weight relief on Noir De Rue and with them racing on closely, this could be the difference. Noir De Rue is racing well but the weight is a worry. Black Russian was racing well before last start and Graham is a good appreciate, looking to prove himself before he moves to Perth.
2 – Zaratite
4 – Paddy’s Shadow
1 – Noir De Rue
7 – Black Russian

Race 8 – Magic Millions Handicap – 1600m – 4:35pm

Kelly’s Secret up in class but does seem to possess some turn of foot and is another horse who only likes a soft track (6:2-1-2). Blue Horse’s only win and seconds in his career have come in his past three runs so maybe something has clicked. She could just be ok to keep your eye on. Jester Noir is a horse who I think is better than last start where he was first up. Sonnen was racing and trialling well so he’s maybe one to watch.
6 – Kelly’s Secret
11 – Blue Horse
8 – Jester Noir
1 – Sonnen

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 5:15pm

Go Crying showed a very nice turn of foot last start and also showed that if he gets back that won’t be a problem. Tamasa should improve on his first run in WA. Neurological has an interesting jockey choice but he is a good horse and does get a good weight claim because of the jockey. Festival Miss is a horse I just don’t know what to do with, but I’m giving her another chance as 1000m could have been too short.
16 – Go Crying
3 – Tamasa
1 – Neurological
12 – Festival Miss


Best Bet

Race 7 – Zaratite

Confidence rating

With the tipping partner away and no points this weekend for our tipping competition, I’ve definitely stuck with my gut (trusted myself a bit more) and picked some not so obvious winners; whether they win or not is another question. Race 1 and 9 are my biggest concern.

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