Belmont 31/07/2021

Conditions

Rail – 14m
Track – Heavy 9
Forecast – Max 16 degrees, showers, possible morning storm

Race 1 – Fuller Fitness Handicap – 2100m – 12:18pm

3 – Zaratite
5 – Treasured Crown
2 – True Attraction
1 – Bella’s Idol

Comment: Zaratite didn’t have an ideal run last start and was narrowly defeated by stablemate Treasured Crown. They drop down in distance here and he gets 2.5kg on him here. He’s knocking on the door for a win and is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). With a small field, he shouldn’t suffer from any bad luck here. Treasured Crown has been racing well over these extended distances. He’s on the one-week backup, as is Zaratite. He’s unbeaten on a heavy track (1:1-0-0) but is yet to race over 2000m (before they changed the distance due to the rain). He’s hard to fault. True Attraction brings different form to this race but is still in very good form. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), but I do think he may be more a 1600m horse. In saying that, he showed a great turn of foot two starts ago over 2200m and he only has to carry 56.5kg with Laqdar’s claim. Definitely not without his chances. Bella’s Idol makes the top 4 because he’s the only other option. In saying that, he has placed on a heavy track before (2:0-1-0).

Suggested bet: Zaratite, Treasured Crown and True Attraction – boxed trifecta

Race 2 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1200m – 12:57pm

1 – Ohbeeh
2 – Bedouin Belle
6 – Mind Tricks
5 – Kakadu

Comment: Ohbeeh has narrowly tasted defeat at his last two starts. He handles both a soft and heavy track, so it won’t bother him what the going is like. He finally draws a better barrier, so that should help him get to the front easily, which is where he does his best work. He only has to carry 58.5kg due to Keshaw’s claim too. Bedouin Belle was just beaten by a better horse last start. She steps back up to 1200m and she has placed at this track/distance before (3:0-2-0). She’s drawn a touch wide in barrier 8, so hopefully, she doesn’t get too far back. She’s yet to win on a soft or heavy track but should go well. Mind Tricks is up in class after being her own worst enemy last start. She’s up in distance which looks to suit (2:1-1-0) plus she’s unbeaten at Belmont (1:1-0-0), though as never faced these conditions together. She’s a sneaky chance. Kakadu managed to run on to some extent on a heavy track last start, where he finished fourth. That was his only time racing on a heavy track (1:0-0-0), but he has won at this track/distance before. Plus he only has to carry 53.5kg due to Laqdar’s claim.

Suggested bet: Ohbeeh – each way, Bedouin Belle and Mind Tricks – place

Race 3 – The Barn Martial Arts And Fitness Plate – 1300m – 1:37pm

4 – Searchin’ Roc’s
9 – Fine Romance
2 – Forever Autumn
1 – Toppa The Mountain

Comment: Searchin’ Roc’s is looking to make it three wins in a row. She’s technically never raced over 1300m, but those two wins have been over 1200m and 1400m, so there’s no reason why she shouldn’t handle 1300m here. She’s should get a lovely spot from barrier 4 and is hard to fault. Fine Romance is having her first start here. Her trial form suggests that she will handle a soft track, but if the track gets downgraded to a heavy 8, there is a question mark over that. No matter what the result, she’ll improve off this run and could be a cerise and white horse to watch. Forever Autumn finally got a win on the board last start. Whether the heavy track suited her, we may find out here. She rises 2kg off that run so does have to give a couple of these horses some weight. She’s also drawn wide but did show first up that she can run on to some extent. There’s no reason why she can’t win again here. Toppa The Mountain was beaten by Forever Autumn last start and Searchin’ Roc’s two starts ago, where this horse finished fourth. Given the margin in both of those runs, it does make turning the tables a little bit harder. He could surprise though.

Suggested bet: Searchin’ Roc’s, Fine Romance, Forever Autumn and Toppa The Mountain – each way

Race 4 – Waja Handicap – 1650m – 2:17pm

3 – The Spruiker
1 – Fuhrer
2 – Kelly’s Callisto
5 – Picture Perfect

Comment: The Spruiker is unbeaten this preparation and looking to make it five wins in a row. He’s up in distance so that could leave him a touch vulnerable. He’s unbeaten at this track (4:4-0-0) and on a soft and heavy track, so it won’t matter how much rain we get between now and the race. He should go well. Fuhrer did quite well last start, finishing second to True Attraction which looks like good form to follow. It definitely looks like the rain has contributed to his improved performances, so hopefully, the rain comes for this horse (which it has). He rises 5kg off that run, but he has previously won with 61.5kg. As he’s won at this track/distance (3:1-1-0), it makes him a huge threat to my top tip. Kelly’s Callisto narrowly finished second to The Spruiker last start. He gets 1kg on him here, as he only has to carry 56kg due to Victoria’s claim. He’s yet to face these conditions together, but he has won at Belmont (8:2-3-1) and distance (8:2-2-0). If The Spruiker doesn’t handle the distance, this horse can turn the table. Picture Perfect looks to be in for a better preparation this time. He finished fourth behind The Spruiker last start. This horse is second up now (3:1-1-0) and has placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). From barrier 2, hopefully, he settles a bit further forward.

Suggested bet: The Spruiker, Fuhrer, Kelly’s Callisto and Picture Perfect – each way

Race 5 – Jockey Celebration Day Sprint – 1000m – 2:55pm

6 – Jericho Missile
4 – Charleton Eddie
5 – Don’t Fuss
2 – Floyd

Comment: Jericho Missile missed the start last start, though I don’t think he would have won anyway, given the margin. He’s up in class and as a result, drops 4kg off last start’s run. He’s placed at this track/distance (4:0-2-1) and the same field will definitely benefit him. Charleton Eddie hasn’t raced since May and hasn’t had a trial leading into this race. He’s only raced at Belmont once and he won, so he’s unbeaten at this track (1:1-0-0). There looks to be speed in this race, so they may opt to take a sit one back on him. He may surprise, but he’ll definitely improve next start with one run under his belt and stepping up to 1200m. Don’t Fuss was a touch disappointing last start, with nothing written in the stewards’ report. He’s no stranger to this track/distance (11:3-2-2) and Pike jumping on board in a feature race is always a positive. I just worry he might find one better here. Floyd was disappointing last preparation where he ran 8th twice. He comes into this race without a trial but has won first up before (9:2-4-1). He’s also no stranger to this track/distance (7:2-4-1). With the scratching of Indian Pacific, this has become a very open race.

Suggested bet: Jericho Missile, Charleton Eddie, Don’t Fuss and Floyd – each way

Race 6 – Toni’s 50th Birthday Handicap – 1000m – 3:30pm

6 – Strathmore Rose
1 – Express Time
2 – First Law
7 – To Rise Again

Comment: Strathmore Rose is slightly up in class after recording two wins at Albany. She comes into this race without a trial but has won first up before (2:1-1-0). She also loves a wet track and has placed at this track/distance. Her form could be stronger, but every horse must make their way through the grades. Express Time is coming off a win at this track/distance and on a heavy going, which puts her in good stead here. She only has to carry 58.5kg due to Laqdar’s claim which puts her back in the race too. As long as she doesn’t get too far back from barrier 7, she’ll run a good race. First Law had a disaster run two starts ago but looked to have bounced back last start. He drops down in distance here and has previously won at this track/distance (2:1-0-0). The wet track won’t bother him and he does have a good turn of foot. I’m interested to see how he goes. To Rise Again is up in class and has never actually won at this class (7:0-0-0) or at this track (4:0-0-0). However, he looks to be a better horse this preparation and has handled the heavy track nicely (2:0-1-1). From barrier 1, he should easily find the front and he could run a cheeky race at great odds.

Suggested bet: Strathmore Rose, Express Time, First Law and To Rise Again – each way

Race 7 – Techworks Handicap – 1200m – 4:00pm

7 – Miss Vasari
2 – Downforce
5 – Reign Of Fire
4 – London Miss

Comment: Miss Vasari is dramatically up in class, but she looks to be a filly with a tonne of potential. She’s yet to have placed outside the top two in her career (4:2-2-0). She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and on a heavy track (1:1-0-0). Her short odds make me a bit nervous, but she deserves a crack at this race. Downforce narrowly won at trials, but the first two did put a small gap on the rest of the field. That trial was on a heavy track, which gives me some confidence, given that he’s never officially raced on a heavy track and has never placed on a soft track (2:0-0-0). He’ll improve next start when he steps up to 1400m, but he has won first up before (5:1-0-2). Reign Of Fire is consistently in the first three or four and is on the one-week backup here. The small field will benefit him, as it will mean that he won’t get too far back. He was less than a length off the winner last start, but I think he’ll just find one better here. London Miss jockey’s saddle slip first up, so just put a line through that run. She improved second up, so she should only improve even further here being third up. She should get a lovely position from barrier 4 and has placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-0).

Suggested bet: Miss Vasari, Downforce, Reign Of Fire and London Miss – each way

Race 8 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 4:35pm

6 – Sketta
7 – Choice Bid
4 – Jedi Mind
5 – Gunmetal Grey

Comment: Sketta finished second behind All Day Session last start. She showed a really good turn of foot on that heavy track there. So, with a better barrier here, that turn of foot could be deadly. There’s no reason for her to run a bad race. Choice Bid comes out of the same race as Sketta where he finished fourth. He was up in class though, so may have just needed the class experience, especially as he was racing well before that. With not a lot of speed in the race, he should easily find the front and he’s won at this track/distance before (5:1-1-1). Jedi Mind is consistently in the first four. He probably got a touch too far back last start, but from barrier 1 here, he should be able to settle more on the speed here. Dropping back to 1200m definitely looks to suit. I’m just not sure he’ll handle the wet track. Gunmetal Gray is up in class here, but deserves a crack given her career statistics (7:2-1-3). Thanks to last start, she’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1) and on a heavy track (1:0-0-1). The wide barrier is a concern and I think they may elect to go forward. Always back a grey on a wet track they say!

Suggested bet: Sketta, Choice Bid, Jedi Mind and Gunmetal Gray – each way

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 5:10pm

1 – Ginger Baker
5 – Little Flirt
7 – Irritable Rodnee
2 – Miss Maranta

Comment: Ginger Baker is on the one-week backup after narrowly tasting defeat last start. He drops back to a distance that he’s unbeaten over at Belmont (1:1-0-0) and he’s unbeaten on a heavy track (1:1-0-0). I imagine the ground will be quite choppy by now, but this horse should run a good race. Little Flirt definitely got way too far back last start and blocked in the straight. From barrier 12, I do worry that she’s going to get back again. She’s also never raced on a heavy track but is proven on a soft one (9:3-2-1). She loves this track/distance (5:2-1-1), which will help her chances here. Irritable Rodnee is up in class here but is in some of his career best form. I love his heavy track record (3:2-1-0) and that he’s placed at this track/distance (2:0-2-0). He’s definitely a horse with a sneaky chance. Miss Maranta has been a bit hit and miss lately but she does always run the risk of getting into trouble when she likes to race that far back in the field. From barrier 8 I’m sure she’ll go back again but at least she only has to carry 56kg with Kristy’s claim. She’s also won at this track/distance (4:2-0-1) and placed on a heavy track (2:0-1-0). Whether horses will be making up ground this late in the day is yet to be seen, but she’s great value.

Suggested bet: Ginger Baker, Little Flirt and Irritable Rodnee – each way

Best Bet

Race 3 – Searchin’ Roc’s

Confidence rating

My confidence is really weird this week as I’m confident that most of my top tips should place but in which order they’ll finish in, I’m not too sure about. Having lots of favourites on top always makes me nervous too, especially as there tends to be more upsets on a heavy track compared to a good track. I’m mostly concerned about races 5, 6 and 8.

Last Week’s Results

R4-boxed trifecta
R6-boxed first 4
Winners in top 4: 7/9
Top picks: 3rd, 2nd, -, 2nd, -, 3rd, 3rd, -, –
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: -10.8 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)