Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 29/06/2019

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – max 17 degrees, chance of a shower

Race 1 – Free Entry to Belmont Park – 1000m – 12:33pm

Money Matters goes on top in the first. He performed strongly in his first start and has trialled on a soft track before. Miss Tycoon was no disgrace last start and can hold herself here. Laverrod has won his two trials and I’ll be interested to see how he goes at his first start. Wicklow Princess has form behind Money Matters and Amelia’s on Fire. She’s consistent but has yet to bring her winning trial form to the races.
1 – Money Matters
3 – Miss Tycoon
7 – Laverrod
9 – Wicklow Princess

Race 2 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1600m – 1:13pm

I made the mistake of not having Deimos on top last start. He should go well again here in what seems to be a weaker race. Celtic Court is a consistent horse and Pike jumps on board. He’s also placed on a soft track before (1:0-0-1). Bold Victory seems to run from the back. He’s also won and placed on a soft track (5:2-0-1). Make Mine Champers was performing well before last start.
1 – Deimos
4 – Celtic Court
8 – Bold Victory
3 – Make Mine Champers

Race 3 – Nola Schlam 90th Birthday Handicap – 1200m – 1:53pm

Showmanship looks to be a good horse coming from the Peters yard. He was impressive last start and would definitely be one to follow in the Spring/Summer whatever the outcome is here. Samizdat is all class and can win here. He can run from the back, but his weight is a concern (62kg). Fred Dag got well back last start and should improve. Watch out for him next start too. Essential Spice is a consistent horse, running second to Samizdat last start. Just comes up against some better horses here.
7 – Showmanship
1 – Samizdat
2 – Fred Dag
6 – Essential Spice

Race 4 – D’Orsogna – Strickland Stakes – 2000m – 2:28pm

I’m taking a chance with Gatting here. No reason he can’t go back to back. Galaxy Star could ruin Gatting’s streak and can turn the tables back. She’s a classy horse, but could get back from that barrier. Great Shot always runs well and has faced the top picks before, but I can’t see him turning the tables this time. Mizlecki has won at this distance before, but the top horses look too good.
2 – Gatting
4 – Galaxy Star
1 – Great Shot
5 – Mizlecki

Race 5 – Ken Dyson 80th Birthday Handicap – 1300m – 3:03pm

City Circle is consistent but could drift out in betting if track gets downgraded to a heavy. She has only placed twice outside top 3 in whole career where she got 4th and she did get boxed in last start. Glasgow Girl has a very good soft track record (4:1-3-0) and could win here. Distant Trilogy was a surprise last start and could surprise here again. He’s versatile as he can sit at the front or back. MistyLad was performing well prior to spell but his first up record is not the best (4:0-0-1).
12 – City Circle
4 – Glasgow Girl
2 – Distant Trilogy
3 – Misty Lad

Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1600m – 3:38pm

Lordhelpmerun seems to be improving with each run. He did face The Velvet King last prep and lost, but he could turn the tables here with his heavy track form (1:1-0-0). The Velvet King has the form, but with the tough conditions last start, it is hoped that he has recovered. Battle Torque is down in grade and Pike back on board. It was between Mrs Brown’s Boy and Double Digit, for the last spot and I’ve gone with Mrs Brown’s Boy due to his form behind Money Maher, Rebel Knight and Battle Torque and because he goes ok on a soft track (10:3-0-4).
6 – Lordhelpmerun
3 – The Velvet King
1 – Battle Torque
2 – Mrs Brown’s Boy

Race 7 – Doug Gardener Memorial Handicap – 1400m – 4:13pm

Moschard was simply beaten by a better horse last start and can bounce back here. Maschino Miss is very consistent and can run from the back. She’s won on soft (1:1-0-0) and heavy track (1:1-0-0), so it would be no surprise if she won here. Nelson’s Flight loves a soft track (2:2-0-0) and his second up record is ok (3:0-1-0), with the wide barrier being a concern. Resistance goes ok and seems to get too far back during runs. She’s to watch if the track gets downgraded.
7 – Moschard
14 – Maschino Miss
3 – Nelson’s Flight
12 – Resistance

Race 8 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1200m – 4:50pm

Free Trade is just a great horse and definitely has ability. He’s also won on a soft track (1:1-0-0). Stageman got back too far last start so I’ll forgive that run. He was going well prior to that and performs well on a soft track (2:1-1-0). It would be no surprise if he won. Pym’s Royale is consistent and handles the soft (2:1-0-1), however his first up record could be better (4:1-0-1). There was hype around Nikitas last start and I would want to see him improve here.
16 – Free Trade
11 – Stageman
8 – Pym’s Royale
1 – Nikitas

 

Best Bet

Race 2 – Deimos

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