Belmont 29/05/2021

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 21 degrees, showers and storms, possible heavy falls.

Race 1 – Mrs Mac’s Plate – 1200m – 12:02pm

1 – Ain’t No Other Man
2 – Rommel’s Command
5 – Rommel’s Jeuney
3 – Written Exceed

Comment: Ain’t No Other Man is coming off a win and probably has some of the strongest form. He drops down in distance but has won over 1100m before, so 1200m shouldn’t be too short for him. He only has to carry 56kg due to Laqdar’s claim too. Rommel’s Command finished third behind Ain’t No Other Man last start and gets 1kg on him here. This horse probably showed his inexperience last start, but the gear changes could see an improved performance here. Rommel’s Jeuney won a trial leading into this race and should only improve off this run as it’s his maiden start. Written Exceed won first up but then didn’t handle the step up in class. He’s got the wide barrier to contend with, but Pike jumps back on board.

Suggested bet: Ain’t No Other Man, Rommel’s Command, Rommel’s Jeuney and Written Exceed – each way

Race 2 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Handicap – 1200m – 12:42pm

6 – Graceful Girl
5 – Timely Outburst
1 – Hot Zed
4 – Divine Pair

Comment: Graceful Girl finished second behind Hot Zed last start but doesn’t get any weight on him due to Kristy’s claim. She had a few excuses last start so looking to bounce back here, as she’s unbeaten over this distance (2:2-0-0). Timely Outburst tasted defeated for the first time last start (4:3-1-0). She’s on the one-week backup, but conditions look to suit. Hot Zed is really on fire this preparation. He loves this distance (6:4-2-0) though is yet to race at Belmont. He only has to carry 59kg due to Kristy’s claim which certainly puts him back in the race. Divine Pair can be a bit hit and miss. However, he’s placed at this track before (2:0-1-1) and will love it if the rain comes.

Suggested bet: Graceful Girl, Timely Outburst and Hot Zed – each way

Race 3 – Tabtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1200m – 1:22pm

2 – Ohbeeh
7 – Queen Of Soul
9 – Petite La Femme
6 – Snippy Miss

Comment: Ohbeed loves Belmont, so I think last preparation was a forgive one. He’s won a trial leading into this race, has won first up (3:1-0-1) and placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-1). With Laqdar’s claim, he also only has to carry 56.5kg. Queen Of Soul ran on really nicely last start. She’s up in class here but should run well. Petite La Femme is consistently finishing third or fourth. She only has to carry a competitive 52kg with Madi’s claim and has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-0-1). Snippy Miss was a bit average last preparation but looks to have improved this time in, recording a second first up. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and has a good barrier. She rounds out an even race.

Suggested bet: Ohbeeh, Queen Of Soul, Petite La Femme and Snippy Miss – each way

Race 4 – Amelia Park Lodge Handicap – 1000m – 2:02pm

8 – How’s The Serenity
6 – Devoted Star
2 – Comes A Time
3 – Mystical View

Comment: How’s The Serenity tackles everything they throw at her. She probably could have won last start if she had a bit more luck. Devoted Star had just the quiet trial leading into this race, though I would have liked to have seen a little bit more. She was hit and miss last preparation but is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). She does like to get back in her runs and this will surely happen from barrier 10. I’m interested to see how she goes. Comes A Time raced wide throughout last start but still didn’t finish that far off the winners. His race two starts ago was good and he’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). Mystical View was her own worst enemy last start. She gets a senior jockey on this time and is actually unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). If she can bring her best she’s a great value chance.

Suggested bet: How’s The Serenity, Devoted Star, Comes A Time and Mystical View – each way

Race 5 – Schweppes Handicap – 2100m – 2:45pm

6 – Born To Try
3 – Secret Pearl
2 – Black Shadow
11 – Blackwater Bay

Comment: Born To Try is flying this preparation. He did place second three starts ago over 2000m, but otherwise has been racing at 1400-1600m. This combined with the fact Pike jumps off in favour of Sentimental Queen (now scratched so he’s riding Secret Pearl), are my only concerns. Secret Pearl loves these longer distances and has been racing well at her past three starts. She’s never placed at Belmont before (4:0-0-0), but this can change here. Black Shadow has also been racing consistently since getting to 1800m and beyond this preparation. He gets 1.5kg on Secret Pearl here too. His only downside is if he ends up too far back. Blackwater Bay is coming off a win at Albany. His form this preparation suggests that he’ll definitely handle the rain if it comes, though he does step up to 2100m for the first time. If he can handle the distance, he can run a good race.

Suggested bet: Born To Try, Secret Pearl Black Shadow and Blackwater Bay – each way

Race 6 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1300m – 3:20pm

2 – Son Son
9 – Billy Ray
11 – What About Moi
5 – Mini Winnie

Comment: Son Son is yet to place outside of the top three in his career (7:4-2-1). He’s yet to race at this track or distance but is proven over 1200m and 1400m. He only has to carry 59kg due to Laqdar’s claim, which certainly puts him back in the race. Billy Ray is a cerise and white horse that’s hard to fault. He finished third behind Son Son last start but doesn’t get any weight relief. No reason why he can’t win. What About Moi does have weaker form lines but is unbeaten over this distance (1:1-0-0). He can run on to some extent too. Mini Winnie got stuck in traffic last start, so that was a bit of a forgive run. Before that, he was racing well and could bounce back here.

Suggested bet: Son Son and Billy Ray – each way

Race 7 – Morley Growers Market Handicap – 1400m – 3:50pm

2 – Leading Girl
4 – Moschard
6 – Naughty By Nature
9 – Bruce Almighty

Comment: Leading Girl likes a bit more ground which I think was evident in her 950m trials. She’s won first up before (3:1-2-0) and at the track/distance (2:1-1-0). The wide barrier would be a concern but she has won from out wide before. Moschard couldn’t get a clear run last start, so put a line through that. He was racing well before that and has a good track/distance record (6:2-1-0). He does have a turn of foot but should get a lovely position from barrier 4. Naughty By Nature probably needed the run first up. She placed at group 3 level last preparation, so looks to be well suited here. Bruce Almighty does have the occasional hiccup which we saw last start. Other than that he rarely runs a bad race. The only concern is his track/distance record (2:0-0-0).

Suggested bet: Leading Girl – each way

Race 8 – Iron Jack – Belmont Sprint – 1400m – 4:20pm

13 – Dance Music
3 – Elite Street
6 – The Velvet King
9 – Massimo

Comment: Dance Music put in a great run in the Roma Cup, finishing third after getting boxed in till about the 200m mark. She’ll definitely improve second up (4:2-1-1) and is proven at this distance (3:1-0-1) and track (4:1-0-1), though not together. Great value chance. Elite Street probably should have won last start if he didn’t get so far back. There’s a concern that could happen again from barrier 12 here. He also races beyond 1200m for the first time. Class and ability are on his side and he won’t mind it if the rain comes. The Velvet King is back and I’m super excited! Things just didn’t go his way in Melbourne so forget all of those runs. His first up record is great (6:2-3-0) and he loves this track/distance (3:2-1-0). I just think he’ll need the run. Massimo really hasn’t had a lot of luck in his runs! He’s had a trial between runs which he won by a gold margin (3.32L). His track/distance record (4:2-2-0) confirms that he can shake things up here.

Suggested bet: Dance Music, Elite Street, The Velvet King and Massimo – each way

Race 9 – Seacorp Handicap – 1000m – 4:50pm

5 – Battle Storm
2 – Nerodio
4 – We’ve Got Dreams
13 – Boomtastic

Comment: Battle Storm returns to Belmont where he is unbeaten at this track/distance (5:5-0-0). He failed to fire at Ascot back in November, but his latest trial suggests he’s ready to win here. Nerodio has been racing really well and there’s nothing to complain about. The key thing to note is that’s he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0), which makes him a huge threat to my top tip. We’re Got Dreams has shown so much at trials but failed to bring that to the races last start. Returning to Belmont could see her bounce back. Boomtastic won a trial leading into this race in a really nice fashion. She also has a good first up record (4:2-1-0), track/distance record (4:2-0-1) and will handle the soft track (3:1-1-0). Not without her chances.

Suggested bet: Battle Storm, Nerodio, We’ve Got Dream and Boomtastic – each way

Best Bet

Race 7 – Leading Girl

Confidence rating

My confidence is really a bit hit and miss today. If I had to narrow it down to my least confident races, I’d say races 1, 2, 3 (for sure), 6 and 9. I suspect the amount of rain excepted might throw a few curveballs too. Fingers crossed it’s a winning day all round, as I’m super excited to have The Velvet King back at the races!

Last Week’s Results

R7-boxed first 4
Winners in top 4: 7/9
Top picks: 1st, 1st, 1st, -, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, -, 3rd
Best bet: 1st
Profit: +0.04 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)