Belmont 28/09/2019

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 25, Sunny

Race 1 – Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1200m – 12:18pm

Validation had a nice run a month ago and did seem to get too far back. She trialled well before that and has had another trial leading into this race, plus she’s placed in the top 3 in all starts on a good track (3:0-1-2). Zip Zam Zoom won her trial and does seem to possess an electric turn of foot, so she’s definitely one to watch going forward. Bee Quick trialled second behind Zip Zam Zoom and does have 3 trials under her belt going into this race. Guess So’s trials have been ok and this is her first time at the races.
4 – Validation
1 – Zip Zam Zoom
3 – Bee Quick
8 – Guess So

Race 2 – Stan Lockwood 90th Birthday Maiden – 1400m – 12:53pm

Sentimental Gift is a horse you must respect with the Pike, Williams and Peters combination, plus she has trialled well. Snow Bamboo wasn’t so good last start but her previous 3 starts were good, plus she has a good turn of foot and the drop back in distance should help. Sublime Image is also a horse coming off good trials. While Pike does jump off, Jade is no negative. Son of the Sun is racing ok and the wide barrier is a concern but he’s alway goes close.
10 – Sentimental Gift
9 – Snow Bamboo
11 – Sublime Image
2 – Son of the Sun

Race 3 – Denis Butko 80th Birthday Plate – 1200m – 1:30pm

I had Some Sort on top last start and he gets the same position here. He’s on the one week back up and is up in the weights, but I think he has the class to get through this. This is definitely a tougher assignment though. Rio Del Mar ran second to Some Sort last start, 3 weeks ago. He gets a weight swing here and Pike jumps on board, so he can definitely turn the tables and is one of my biggest concerns today. Red Can Man won last start and has never placed outside of the top 3 (4:1-1-2), though he is up in class. Power of St George is down in my list but can definitely still win this race, as he seems to be a horse with ability and should only be fitter third up here.
1 – Some Sort
3 – Rio Del Mar
6 – Red Can Man
8 – Power of St George

Race 4 – Value Bruce Buggins Handicap – 2100m – 2:10pm

Bunker Buster did beat Too Close The Sun last start and has won his previous two starts. With the scratching of Too Close The Sun, he goes on top. Uncle Lino also won last start, though that was at Northam. He should be leading here and giving them something to run down. At the Ready has been racing well and is down in class here. Mosserati has always been up there but yet not quite. I wouldn’t want him getting too far back in the race though.
2 – Bunker Buster
4 – Uncle Lino
1 – At the Ready
10 – Mosserati

Race 5 – Western Racepix Belmont Horse of the Year Handicap – 1600m – 2:50pm

You can make a case for so many horses here, so I definitely wouldn’t be betting here. Cockney Crew is a horse with talent in this very talented filled race. He won last start very impressively and has group 2 form. Heavenly Affair won her previous 4 starts and can win again here. She has a lot going for her, including a decrease in weight due to the increase in class, which is a concern. Friar Fox won last start and she was good enough that connections talked about taking her east, so she must have some ability. Western Temple has shown his has ability in trials and last start but I’m just waiting to see him take the next step at the races, however, he can win here though.
4 – Cockney Crew
9 – Heavenly Affair
5 – Friar Fox
7 – Western Temple

Race 6 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1600m – 3:30pm

Deception Game had a nice run last start and is going well, except for one race where he got too far back. Beaucount’s performances over this distance have been good. Here Comes Lenni has faced some very good horses recently. He has had a month off but did trial well, however, he could perhaps need more distance. Blue Horse has always been there yet can’t quite get the chocolates. She is a versatile horse (can lead or run on) which is good.
1 – Deception Game
4 – Beaucount
3 – Here Comes Lenni
11 – Blue Horse

Race 7 –Michelle Princi 60th Birthday Handicap – 1000m – 4:10pm

Why Choose Her is up in class and she would have preferred a soft track, but you can’t deny she has class. King’s Authority had a nice run last start, coming second to Stageman. More Aces also comes out of the Stageman race where he came third. Tamasa hasn’t really hit her stride since getting to WA but should be fitter third up here.
11 – Why Choose Her
8 – King’s Authority
6 – More Aces
2 – Tamasa

Race 8 – Birthday Stakes – 1200m – 4:45pm

Stageman is going very well and with the lightweight he can be winning here. Samizdat has an impressive win record (5:4-0-1) and he has the potential to cause an upset here. Lady Cosmology won over in Melbourne in a group 3, so she has ability. She has also trialled second behind Special Reward who is racing in Melbourne this weekend. Man Booker won in Brisbane last start over 3 months ago. His track work was apparently good this week, but he does come into this race without a trial, so fitness is a question.
9 – Stageman
4 – Samizdat
8 – Lady Cosmology
2 – Man Booker

Race 9 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1200m – 5:22pm

Bel My Pago has been racing consistently and has good form. She ran second to Colourful Chloe last start but gets a 1.5kg swing here. If she can settle further forward, she can turn the tables. ColourfulChloe won last start in a nice fashion and is one of my biggest worries today. Heart of Coeur won his last trial and with 3 trials under his belt, he should be race fit. Unibro had a good run last start and is third up here.
6 – Bel My Pago
8 – Colourful Chloe
5 – Heart of Coeur
7 – Unibro

Best Bet

Race 1 – Validation

Confidence rating

Very very low! There are so many chances in each race. I’ve gone with my gut which I’m hoping pays off, but one thing I am tipping is a few upsets!