Belmont 28/08/2021

Conditions

Rail – 6m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Handicap – 2200m – 11:18pm

4 – Zaratite
2 – Montelena
3 – Bella’s Idol
5 – Purist

Comment: Zaratite finally got a win on the board after knocking on the door all preparation. He rises 2kg off that run, but 56.5kg isn’t anything ridiculous. I was thinking the track might be soft with the amount of rain forecast (but it’s not) and he has a great soft track record (8:4-4-0). He’s yet to win at this track/distance (2:0-2-0), but everything suggests that he’ll handle conditions here. Montelena narrowly went down to True Attraction last start, which is good form to follow. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and has won on a soft track (9:3-2-1). She carries 60kg here, which is 0.5kg more than last start. Whether the extra weight tips her over the edge, we’ll find out here. Bella’s Idol finished second to Zaratite last start and gets 1.5kg on him here, which is mostly due to Beaux’s claim. In the small field and from barrier 4, he’ll easily get to the front and give them something to run down. Purist is the last horse left in this field of four now. He only has to carry 52kg due to Kristy’s claim and there won’t be any hard luck stories in this race. I just think he’ll definitely find my top two tips too good.

Suggested bet: Zaratite and Montelena – each way

Race 2 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1600m – 11:57pm

5 – Giant Leap
7 – Nobel Laurence
2 – Bad Wolf
1 – Cockney Crew

Comment: Giant Leap got blocked for a run in the straight last start, so he may have finished close or won if this hasn’t happened. He’s up in distance and yet to place over it (1:0-0-0), but that attempt was at the end of last preparation, so he may have just had enough. He’s yet to finish outside of the top three on a soft track (6:3-2-1), so hopefully, the rain does come. He’s up in class but should run a good race. Nobel Laurence is also up in distance, but his runs suggest that he’s looking for the extra 200m. He can get back in his runs, but from barrier 3, he may be able to settle slightly further forward. Pike does jump off in favour of Giant Leap, but Lucy did ride this horse to a win two starts ago. With his form and a low weight, he can win this. Bad Wolf is coming off a nice win at this track/distance. He can be hit and miss but he seems to be hitting his stride here. There’s not much to complain about, so he should run a good race. Cockney Crew is first up (4:1-1-0) and comes into this race without a trial. His track/distance record is good (3:1-1-1) and he’s proven on a soft track (5:1-1-1). Due to Kristy’s claim, he does just have to carry 60.5kg, but this does seem like a big ask first up. He could surprise though.

Suggested bet: Giant Leap, Nobel Laurence, Bad Wolf and Cockney Crew – each way

Race 3 – Vale Neil Cayley Plate – 1000m – 12:37pm

5 – Prince Ragnar
2 – Policiere
3 – Michelada
7 – Story Book

Comment: Prince Ragnar really improved at his only trial this preparation and then came out to finish second at his first race. That race was at over the same track and distance, so he should handle the conditions here. From barrier 1, he should be able to get to the front easily too. With one run under his belt, he can improve here. Policiere has really good form surrounding her races last preparation and she finished second in the G3 Gimcrack. Given that result, she actually isn’t penalised too heavily in the weights. Her one trial suggests she’s ready to go here, even though she’s yet to place first up (2:0-0-0). Michelada has also won a trial leading into this race. She won at her maiden race but then connections may have aimed a little bit too high. Dropping back in class here should help and she’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0) and first up (1:1-0-0). She’s one to watch. Story Book improved last start where she raced on a good track and settled in the first two in running. She’s placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-0), but I’ll be interested to see where she settles given that a few horses, including her, will be wanting to go forward. She rounds out an even race.

Suggested bet: Prince Ragnar, Policiere, Michelada and Story Book – each way

Race 4 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1200m – 1:17pm

2 – Apple Schnapps
1 – Ohbeeh
3 – Gunmetal Grey
4 – Snippy Miss

Comment: Apple Schnapps is looking to make it three wins in a row, though his wins have been in weaker company. He’s won at Belmont (3:1-0-1) and at this distance (4:1-1-0), but he hasn’t faced these conditions together. If he can handle this and the step up in class, he should go close. Ohbeeh is no stranger to this track/distance and has a great record to go with it (7:2-3-1). He’s also proven on a soft track (8:3-2-1) and only has to carry 59kg due to Keshaw’s claim, which puts him back in the race. He’ll be given them something to run down. Gunmetal Grey didn’t exactly have an ideal run last start but still only finished one length off the winner. That was her first time outside of the top three at this track/distance (3:0-1-1), so with a better run, she could win. Snippy Miss has been disappointing at her past two starts, with nothing written in the stewards’ report. She does have a good track/distance record (4:2-1-0) and definitely prefers a soft track (6:1-2-1), so she’s another horse that will be hoping that the rain comes. Whether she’s come to the end of her preparation, we’re about to find out, but she could run a cheeky race.

Suggested bet: Apple Schnapps, Ohbeeh, Gunmetal Grey and Snippy Miss – each way

Race 5 – Seacorp Handicap – 1000m – 1:57pm

1 – Blazing Billy
7 – The Invisible Man
2 – Jag The Joker
4 – Requisition

Comment: Blazing Billy has really improved this preparation. He won a trial and then first up as well. Conditions look to suit him here, as he’s unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), plus Pike keeps the ride. The only concern is that he has to carry 60kg in a quality field, though he did win last preparation at Pinjarra carrying 60.5kg. The Invisible Man has never finished outside the top two in his career (3:1-2-0). He’s up in class here but has won at this track/distance (2:1-1-) and placed on a soft track (1:0-1-0). Brad picks Jag The Joker over this horse, but if he can handle the step up in class, he’s good value. Jag The Joker raced wide throughout last start, which certainly didn’t help her chances. She still didn’t finish that far off the winner though. She’s a consistent horse that has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-0-1). She’s on the one-week backup, but she should run a good race. Requisition hasn’t been racing at his best yet, though it does typically take him a few runs to be hitting his stride. His form back in January to April at Ascot is really good, but I’m thinking that perhaps he just doesn’t like Belmont. His track/distance record kind of confirms this (7:0-1-0).

Suggested bet: Blazing Billy, The Invisible Man and Jag The Joker – each way

Race 6 – Peninsula Dining Room Handicap – 2000m – 2:33pm

2 – Al Mahalo
1 – Salon Du Cheval
3 – Porphyrio
8 – Miss Zedel

Comment: Al Mahalo got a bit further back than he normally would last start, but he still finished home strongly. He steps up in distance here and while he’s never raced over 2000m, he did place third over 2200m four starts ago, so he should handle the distance here. He finished third Porphyrio last start and gets 2kg on him here. I’m just worried that he might get a bit far back again from barrier 11. Salon Du Cheval comes out of the same race as Al Mahalo and Porphyrio, where this horse finished second. He rises 0.5kg off that run to carry 61kg here. He has won at this track/distance before (2:1-0-1), but 61kg over an extra 400m may just take its toll. Porphyrio beat my first two tips last start, as I previously mentioned. She showed a great turn of foot in that run, coming from last to win. From barrier 13, I suspect that she’ll get back again. She’s also up in distance but has placed over 2000m before (1:0-0-1). Last start was a much improved run, so I’m curious to see whether she can repeat that performance here. Miss Zedel was disappointing last start, with nothing written in the stewards’ report. She won two starts ago, so I’m not sure exactly what happened last start. She’s drawn wide again which is a slight concern and she’s never placed at this distance (1:0-0-0). If she can bounce back though, she’s a cheeky chance at great odds.

Suggested bet: Al Mahalo, Salon Du Cheval and Porphyrio – each way

Race 7 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1600m – 3:15pm

4 – Brave Dream
2 – Mr Delegator
1 – Red Hot Tip
6 – Little Flirt

Comment: Brave Dream finally got a win on the board last start. She beat Mr Delegator in the process and has to give him 0.5kg here. Due to the margin though, I don’t think this is enough to turn the tables on its own. This horse showed a good turn of foot and Pike jumps back on board. She has won at this track/distance before (2:1-0-0) and she won’t mind if it’s a good or soft track. I’m not surprised to see her start favourite. Mr Delegator comes out of the same race as Brave Dream as I previously mentioned. He only has to carry 56.5kg due to Kate’s claim, which means he doesn’t have to give Brave Dream any weight. While he’s yet to win at this track/distance, he does have a good record at these conditions (2:0-1-1). From barrier 2 he should easily get to the front and he’ll give Brave Dream something to run down. Red Hot Tip looked to be his own worst enemy last start.  He’s probably looking for further, so I’m surprised to see him start over 1600m again here. He has placed second up before (3:0-0-2) and should take improvement off that run. The 60kg may just take its toll. Little Flirt didn’t finish that far off the winner last start, after coming from the back to finish third. That turn of foot should prove valuable here, especially as she’s drawn barrier 10. She’s up in distance and is yet to place over 1600m (1:0-0-0), but given her racing pattern this preparation, the extra distance could give her more time to catch them. She would probably like the rain to come and if it does, she’s great value.

Suggested bet: Brave Dream and Mr Delegator – each way

Race 8 – Idyllic Prince Stakes – 1300m – 3:50pm

4 – Samizdat
6 – Tellem We’re Comin
2 – Too Close The Sun
1 – Neufbosc

Comment: Samizdat won the lead up race to this race, beating a few of these horses in the process. Due to the conditions of this race, he actually gets weight on them here, which is only going to help his chances. He’s yet to place at this distance (1:0-0-0) but is proven over 1200-1500m, so this race is within his range. He would have liked a wet track but has drawn beautifully in barrier 4. There’s no reason why he can’t go back to back. Tellem We’re Comin finished second to Samizdat but has to give him 2.5kg here. This horse does have a good track/distance record though (2:1-0-1), which does give him a slight edge over Samizdat. He also has a good second up record (7:3-2-0). It’s pretty hard to fault him. Too Close The Sun brings different form lines to this race. He drops 3kg off his first up run, which will help here. Pike also jumps on board. He’s yet to race over 1300m and I wonder whether it’s a touch too short for him. He is a big fan of Belmont though (5:3-1-1) and has drawn nicely in barrier 6. He’s another horse that will have connections praying for the rain, but I think he’ll return to his best now that he’s back in Perth. Neufbosc won the Perth Cup but then failed to fire in Melbourne. His two trials leading into this race weren’t anything flashy and his first up record could be better (5:0-0-1). There’s no doubt that he’s looking for further, but if he brings his Perth Cup form, he could surprise.

Suggested bet: Samizdat, Tellem We’re Comin and Too Close The Sun – each

Race 9 – Irisndt Handicap – 1200m – 4:25pm

5 – Kaptain Kaos
2 – Cliffs Of Comfort
9 – Reign Of Fire
6 – Miss Marietta

Kaptain Kaos was extra impressive last start. 1200m is definitely his ideal distance and he’s versatile in where he can sit in the run, which will be valuable from barrier 8. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and won’t mind if it’s a good or soft track. There’s no reason why he should run a bad race. Cliffs Of Comfort hasn’t been seen at the races since November and didn’t make it to the races in April even after two trials, so there’s a question mark over that. He only had one trial leading into this preparation, so he probably needed the first up run. He’s unbeaten second up (2:2-0-0) and has won at this track/distance (3:1-1-0). 60kg from barrier 13 will test his class though. Reign Of Fire is yet to finish outside the top four this preparation and she’s just very consistent. He drops down in class so is up in the weights slightly. He’s proven at this track/distance (5:2-0-1), including winning at these conditions two starts ago. Miss Marietta comes into this race without a trial, but she has won first up before (5:1-0-2) and placed at this track/distance (2:0-0-1). She’s definitely will be looking for more distance, but she’s great value!

Best Bet

Race 9 – Kaptain Kaos

Quaddie

R6: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8
R7: 1, 2, 4,
R8: 2, 4, 6
R9: 1, 2, 5, 6, 9

Confidence rating

There are quite a few races today that look to be a battle between two or three horses. Some of the more open races are races 3, 4, 6, 7 and 9. When originally doing my tips, I did think that we would have had a bit more rain by now and maybe even racing on a soft track. Hopefully, I’m still on the money though!

Last Week’s Results

R1-boxed trifecta
R2-boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4: 7/9
Top picks: 2nd, 1st, -, -, -, -, -, 1st, 1st
Best bet: 1st
Quaddie: yes
Profit: -2.5 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)