Belmont 27/07/2019

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Soft 7
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – Go Racing for Free Before the Footy Plate – 1000m – 12:48pm

Mia Dolce is performing so well lately and she does have experience over the other horses here. Excellent Dream has trialled very well and would only need to repeat that performance. Special Choice has trialled better this preparation than last and the Pike, Williams team and Mr Peters combination must be respected. It was a tough decision for fourth, but Excelestial ran well last start and should only improve here.
2 – Mia Dolce
5 – Excellent Dream
11 – Special Choice
7 – Excelestial

Race 2 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1000m – 1:28pm

I had Metro Boy on top last start, and he was so close. His second up record is also ok (2:1-0-0). Ascot Gold is up in class but has been consistent this preparation. My Lady Fair is going ok and has been knocking on the door the past two starts. Apollo got too far back last start and it was a fast run race. My only concern is that there does look to be speed in this race too.
1 – Metro Boy
3 – Ascot Gold
9 – My Lady Fair
4 – Apollo

Race 3 – Peter Griffin Birthday Handicap – 1000m – 2:08pm

Salcity looks to be a quality horse and has placed at all starts (2:1-1-0). He is up in class but is a good roughie if you’re looking for value. Essential Spice just keeps ticking along and has a good soft track record (5:1-3-0). She is my biggest concern and can definitely win. Daishio is on the one-week backup, but it’s hard to ignore winning form. Cheval De Vaga seems to have come back really well this preparation and won last start.
9 – Salcity
4 – Essential Spice
1 – Daishio
5 – Cheval De Vaga

Race 4 – Vale Michael Dragun Handicap – 2100m – 2:43pm

I’ve always been a supporter of Eye Art. She had a bad run two starts ago but she had an apprentice on from a different state so I’m willing to forgive that run. Noir De Rue has been showing a good turn of foot over these distances. Spiritual Warrior has beat quite a few of these horses here two starts ago, but the question is can he do it again. Mr Alby seems to be running well for Troy Turner and should find the front easily.
7 – Eye Art
4 – Noir De Rue
6 – Spiritual Warrior
8 – Mr Alby

Race 5 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 3:20pm

Free Trade is a horse that just has class and form (6:3-3-0). With no Stageman in the race, he should go well. I’m not sure what happened to Festival Miss last start but that was her first time out of the first 3. Pike jumps back on board which is a positive. Moschard showed an incredible turn of foot last start. He also gets in well with the weight claim. Beat the Devil ran third to Battle Storm last start and his second up record is ok (2:1-0-0).
5 – Free Trade
7 – Festival Miss
2 – Moschard
3 – Beat the Devil

Race 6 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1600m – 3:55pm

I just love Lordhelpmerun and he’s going from strength to strength. Missile Launch trialled well and his second up record is good (4:2-0-1). Battle Torque got too far back last start with a bad barrier and also faced very good horses before that. He could potentially bounce back here. Double Digit is going ok but just not well enough for my liking.
2 – Lordhelpmerun
3 – Missile Launch
4 – Battle Torque
7 – Double Digit

Race 7 – D’Orsongna Handicap – 1600m – 4:30pm

Fred Dag won last start with a great turn of foot. He’s up in distance but that should only give him further to catch up if he does get back. Deception Game last two starts were very good, though he is up in class. Playing Marika couldn’t beat Lordhelpmerun last start but she has shown good form prior to that and I can’t see the wide barrier being a problem. My question is whether the 1300-1400 is more her ideal distance, while her soft track record is good (2:1-0-1). Skinnen Tins comes from the Lordhelpmerun race too, where he didn’t disgrace himself.
4 – Fred Dag
6 – Deception Game
14 – Playing Marika
5 – Skinnen Tins

Race 8 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 5:05pm

Distant Trilogy had really good runs in his last three lasts, even getting back in two of them. As long as the weight isn’t too much and he doesn’t get boxed in he should go well. The Fugazi has a great track record (2:1-1-0) and soft track record (2:1-1-0), so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he won here. Zephyr Queen has won two for two this preparation, with it looking like something has just clicked. I have a personal connection to Harry Thomas, as my horse Ace’s Wish ran a dead heat to this horse on a Wednesday over two years ago. He’s been placing third consistently and his second up record is good (4:1-1-0).
1 – Distant Trilogy
10 – The Fugazi
14 – Zephyr Queen
2 – Harry Thomas

Best Bet

Race 6 – Lordhelpmerun

Confidence Rating

It’s not too bad, I think my top picks should at least place (probably just jinxed myself there). My biggest concerns are races 1, 3 and 8.