Belmont 26/06/2021

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Plate – 1200m – 11:58pm

8 – Forever Dreaming
3 – Ground Braker
2 – Toppa The Mountain
1 – Guard The Safe

Comment: Forever Dreaming is also coming off a win at her second start. She was disappointing first up but her trials suggest that she has a lot of ability. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and there’s no reason why that statistic could change here. Ground Braker is coming off a win where he beat Astrape who came out and won on Wednesday. He’s won at this track/distance (2:1-0-1) and has been improving with each run this preparation. Just a question whether he prefers a soft track. Toppa The Mountain is hit and miss. He seems to do his best work from the first two and he should easily get that position from barrier 1. He’s had the two trials leading into this race but should improve next start. Guard The Safe is coming off a win at his third start. He should be spot on fitness wise here, but the wide barrier may get the better of him.

Suggested bet: Forever Dreaming and Ground Braker – each way

Race 2 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1200m – 12:37pm

1 – Speedy Miss
8 – Snippy Miss
2 – Express Time
5 – Vital Blast

Comment: Speedy Miss is on the one-week backup trying to avoid I’m Pretty, I’m guessing. She drops back in distance here but has won over 1200m before (5:1-0-1), just not at Belmont. She only has to carry 57.5kg due to Holly’s claim too. If she can handle the back up she should go well. Snippy Miss has placed second at all three starts this preparation. She’s won at this track/distance before (2:1-1-0). She’ll drawn wide and her only win has been on a heavy track, but otherwise she should go well. Express Time is coming off a win where she beat Snippy Miss. She has to give her 1kg as a result, but she has drawn better. She looks to get the ideal run from barrier 3, though is yet to place over this distance (1:0-0-0). That can change here. Vital Blast finished third behind Express Time and Snippy Miss first up. It was a good run that he probably needed fitness wise. I’m not sure Belmont is his favourite track (4:0-0-1) but at least he only has to carry 55.5kg due to Kate’s claim.

Suggested bet: Speedy Miss, Snippy Miss and Express Time – each way

Race 3 – Jane Carr 50th Birthday Handicap – 1600m – 1:17pm

8 – Truly Inspired
9 – Crescent City
6 – Cape Reign
2 – Beat The Bro

Comment: Truly Inspired is significantly up in class here, coming off a win at Northam. Pike jumps off in favour of Crescent City, but I’m backing this horse’s turn of foot and distance record (2:1-1-0). Crescent City is yet to place outside of the tope three in his career (4:1-0-3). He’s placed third over 1675m but hasn’t raced at Belmont before. Pike sticks with him over Truly Inspired, but honestly, it’s hard to split them. Cape Reign is coming off two winning trials and then a winning race. He was a bit disappointing towards the end of last preparation but does seem to go well fresh. He’s won second up before (2:1-1-0) and at this distance (3:1-1-0). The step up in class looks to be his only weakness but that does mean he’s incredible value. Beat The Bro probably has some of best form in this race. He’s drawn a bit wide but did place second from barrier 11 first up. Not much to comment on other than the rain would have really helped his chances.

Suggested bet: Truly Inspired and Crescent City – each way

Race 4 – Vale Paul Stillitano Handicap – 1000m – 1:53pm

3 – Vane Tempest
7 – Secret Plan
2 – Acromantula
5 – Reign Of Fire

Comment: Vane Tempest narrowly tasted defeat last start. She drops back in distance here and to one that she’s unbeaten over (1:1-0-0). She only has to carry 56kg due to Victoria’s claim, which is 3kg less than last start. There’s no reason she should run a bad race. Secret Plan won a trial leading into this race. He went well last preparation and I like his form behind Hot Zed. He’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), which makes him a huge threat to my top tip. Acromantula was his own worst enemy last start, after being fractious in the barriers. He’s had quite the break since that run but does go well fresh and should get his ideal run from barrier 2. He’ll be given them something to run down. Reign Of Fire comes out of the same race as Vane Tempest, finishing fourth to her second. With two runs under his belt, he should be nearly spot on fitness wise and has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-0-1). Just the question of whether he’ll find one better again.

Suggested bet: Vane Tempest, Secret Plan and Acromantula – each way

Race 5 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1000m – 2:43pm

4 – Miss Conteki
5 – Panzdown
1 – Gemma’s Son
3 – Ambiente

Comment: Miss Conteki has had just under two months between runs, so slight question mark over why that is the case. She goes extremely well fresh though (unbeaten first up 3:3-0-0), is unbeaten over this distance (5:5-0-0) and has drawn beautifully in barrier 6. The only smallest concern is that she’s yet to race at Belmont. Panzdown tasted defeat for the first time this preparation last start after finishing second. The margin was very narrow, so nothing to take away from the horse. He’s drawn just outside of Miss Conteki, so they could be battling with each other early on. His track/distance record does give him an advantage over her (3:1-2-0) but only time will tell on whether that is enough. Gemma’s Son finished third behind Miss Conteki last start. He absolutely adores this distance (8:4-0-4) and is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He also only has to carry 57kg due to Beaux’s claim. He can surprise here. Ambiente has won two trials leading into this race, so combined with his first up record (6:3-1-0), he looks ready to go here. Connections probably would have been a bit more confident if the rain had come, but at least he has won at this track/distance before (5:2-1-0).

Suggested bet: Miss Conteki, Panzdown and Gemma’s Son – each way

Race 6 – Peninsula Dining Room Handicap – 1300m – 3:20pm

15 – Secret Statue
16 – Time Scale
9 – Double Spice
7 – The Great One

Comments: Secret Statue has placed in the top three at all of his races this preparation but is yet to get a win on the board. I think this track/distance does leave him a bit vulnerable (1:0-0-0) and Pike jumps off in favour of Devoted Star. However, this horse does have a turn of foot and has finally drawn an inside barrier. I’m interested to see what he can do. Time Scale is in a similar position to Secret Statue, though probably brings stronger form lines to this race. She’s up in distance but has placed at Belmont before (3:0-0-1). The wide barrier is the biggest concern. Double Spice comes into this race without a trial. He does have a great first up record though (3:2-0-1) and has won at this track/distance (2:1-0-0). He races really well as long as he doesn’t get too far back. However, as he has drawn wide, that is a concern. The Great One races in WA for the first time. His trial suggests that he’s ready to go and he has won first up before (2:1-0-0). He should only improve next start with one run under his belt.

Suggested bet: Secret Statue, Time Scale, Double Spice and The Great One – each way

Race 7 – Crown Perth Handicap – 2200m – 3:55pm

10 – Born To Try
1 – Adornment
5 – Black Shadow
8 – Blackwater Bay

Comment: Born To Try finished third behind Black Shadow last start. Like her name she always tries her hardest and the 51kg due to Keshaw’s claim makes her very competitive. Hopefully, this will help to offset the wide barrier, though she did show a good turn of foot last start. Adornment is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). Pike does jump off in favour of True Attraction, but this mare is looking to make it two wins in a row. The 60kg is a big ask over this distance, especially with the wide barrier. Class may get her through. Black Shadow has been racing really well over these extended distances. He’s unbeaten over this track/distance (1:1-0-0), which was last start. He’s up in class which does mean he carries 2kg less than last start. He’s hard to fault. Blackwater Bay is a hit and miss horse, but maybe didn’t appreciate the wide barrier last start. He’s drawn better here and drops 5kg off that run. He did win two starts ago over 2100m, so I don’t think 2200m is too far for him. Just have to wait and see which horse turns up.

Suggested bet: Born To Try, Adornment, Black Shadow and Blackwater Bay – each way

Race 8 – Breast Cancer Research Centre Of Wa-Strickland Stakes – 2000m – 4:25pm

9 – Leading Girl
2 – The Velvet King
8 – Dance Music
10 – Naughty By Nature

Comment: Leading Girl did well last start on what was a leader bias track. She didn’t finish that far off the winner after drawing wide. She has a better barrier here and the step up in distance is only going to benefit her, especially as she’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). It’s always hard to go against the Pike/Peters/Williams combination in a feature race. The Velvet King suffered from a tonne of bad luck last start. He actually ran the second quickest 600m (behind Leading Girl) and may have been the fastest if he didn’t have any interference in the straight. I would have been more confident if the rain had come, but he has placed at this track/distance before (this race last year – 1:0-0-1). I’m honestly just hoping that he jumps cleanly. Dance Music was pipped at the post last start. She’s been racing really consistently this preparation and will be at the peak of her powers in this race. She steps up to 2000m for the first time but has previously won a G3 over 1800m. Either way, she’ll be giving them something to run down. Naughty By Nature is up in class but did finish second to Leading Girl two starts ago. She also races at 2000m for the first time and there is the question mark over whether she’ll handle it and the level of class in this race. She also would have loved the rain but could run a cheeky race here.

Suggested bet: Leading Girl and The Velvet King – each way

Race 9 – Furphy Handicap – 1400m – 4:55pm

10 – Bright Diamond
8 – The Spruiker
7 – No Surrender
6 – Lonsdale Lady

Comment: Bright Diamond lay inwards in the straight last start, but still did well to finish third. She’s won at the track/distance before (2:1-0-1) and is yet to place outside of the top 3 in her career (6:3-2-1). She’s hard to fault. The Spruiker is up in class but is looking to make it three wins in a row. His form beating Timely Outburst first up looks like good form to follow and he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). Just a question mark over the wide barrier. No Surrender was disappointing to say the least in the listed Raconteur, where he finished last. He drops back in grade here and should easily find the front from barrier 3. Look for him to bounce back here. Lonsdale Lady is first up after a quiet trial. She has won first up before (3:1-0-0) and is actually unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). We didn’t see much from her last preparation, but that was in a higher grade. I think she’ll just find one better here.

Suggested bet: Bright Diamond and The Spruiker – each way

Best Bet

Race 9 – Bright Diamond

Confidence rating

There look to be quite a few head on battles this week. Splitting Forever Dreaming and Ground Braker was hard! In terms of confidence though, races 4, 6 and 7 look to be particularly nasty. For my best bet, Bright Diamond isn’t exactly good value, but he does have good statistics. I’m hope the saying “Pike in the last” is correct. For The Velvet King, I think if he jumps well, he’ll be competitive, but Leading Girl shouldn’t be underestimated. I’m hoping for a successful day all round!

Last Week’s Results

R2-exacta
R3-exacta
R7-boxed first 4
R9-quinella
Winners in top 4: 6/9
Top picks: -, 1st, 1st, -, -, 3rd, 1st, -, 2nd
Best bet: 1st
Profit: -0.9 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)