Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 25/09/2021

Conditions

Rail – 9m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 27 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Plate – 1000m – 10:34pm

4 – Ruthless Tycoon
5 – Metallon
3 – Policiere
2 – Spin The Knife

Comment: Ruthless Tycoon is unbeaten at his trials and his one start. He’s first up here but his trial suggests that he’s ready to go. He drops back in distance but 1000m shouldn’t be a problem. From barrier 3, he should easily get to the front too. He’s a horse on the way up. Metallon won by a good margin at his first start. That was on a soft track, but his trials suggest that he’ll run just as well on a good track. It’s hard to fault him. Policiere was disappointing last start but she had a whole heap of excuses in the stewards’ report. Her form is probably some of the strongest in this race and she has won at this track/distance before (2:1-0-0). Look for her to bounce back here. Spin The Knife won first up last start and showed that he would be in for a good preparation. He drops in class here so, he does rise 4.5kg off that run. Thanks to last start he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He rounds out an even race.

Suggested bet: Ruthless Tycoon, Metallon, Policiere and Spin The Knife – each way

Race 2 – Amelia Park Plate – 1400m – 11:09pm

1 – Red Fifty Three
2 – Probity
6 – Let’sdeal
5 – Black Fantasy

Comment: Red Fifty Three is still unbeaten in his career (2:2-0-0). Both runs have been on a soft track, but he has won a trial on a soft track. He rises 2kg off last start’s run and is up in distance here. Whether that extra distance will give the others more time to catch him, as I assume he’ll be in the first two, we’ll find out. Ability can see him winning here. Probity is also coming off a win first up. He’s yet to finish outside the top 3 (3:1-1-1). His form is probably slightly stronger than Red Fifty Three and he does drop 2.5kg off last start’s win. He’s also up in distance but can win without surprising. Let’sdeal won his first race at Northam last start, meaning he is unbeaten in his career (1:1-0-0). The form surrounding the races could be slightly stronger, but he did win by a convincing margin and there were 6.9 lengths to third place. He’ll keep improving with each run and deserves a crack in the city. Black Fantasy also won at Northam last start at his second career run. His margin wasn’t as big but the race was over 1400m, which means he’s one of the few horses proven at this distance. Don’t rule him out in this even race!

Suggested bet: Red Fifty Three, Probity, Let’sdeal and Black Fantasy – each way

Race 3 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1300m – 11:44pm

2 – Ginger Flyer
5 – Pepper Assault
1 – Bedouin Belle
3 – Jaguar Grey

Comment: Ginger Flyer looks to be in for a good preparation after recording a win last start. Connections would have been more confident if she was racing on a soft track but she has won on a good track before (10:2-2-3). From barrier 11 she’s going to have to use some energy early on to get to the front. She also rises 2kg off last start’s run. She should run a good race though. Pepper Assault is having her maiden preparation at aged 4, but patience seems to have paid off as she’s yet to finish outside of the top 3 (3:2-0-1). Those two wins have been on a soft track and in weaker company, but last start’s third suggests that she should handle conditions here. She’s up in distance and class, but Pike retains the ride. She’s one to watch. Bedouin Belle is an ultra-consistent horse. She has good form surrounding her runs, though I’m not sure that Belmont is her favourite track or whether it’s just not lucky for her (12:0-4-5). She only has to carry 58kg due to Laqdar’s claim and from barrier 5 she should get an ideal run. She can make it two wins in a row here. Jaguar Grey seemed to have appreciated the step up in distance last start, where she recorded a win. She rises 3kg off that win but this race looks to be just as even on paper. She’s yet to place at this distance (2:0-0-0), but I think that can change here.

Suggested bet: Ginger Flyer, Pepper Assault, Bedouin Belle and Jaguar Grey – each way

Race 4 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1650m – 12:19pm

2 – Giant Leap
3 – Call Again
1 – Temptacion
7 – Glamour Packed

Comment: Giant Leap has just found one or two better as his past three starts. He’s placed at this track/distance (3:0-2-1), but he’s actually yet to win on a good track (8:0-3-2). He only has to carry 58.5kg due to Laqdar’s claim, which puts him back in the race. From barrier 3, he should get an ideal run. He’s hard to fault. Call Again is looking to make it three wins in a row here. Those two wins have been in slightly weaker company, but he did win by 3L last start. He’s won at Belmont (4:1-1-0) and has this distance (4:1-1-0) but hasn’t faced these conditions together. If he can handle the class, he can surprise. Temptacion steps up in distance but given that he placed second in the WATC Derby in April, there’s no doubt that he’s looking for even further. Returning to a good track this preparation will definitely suit him (7:3-1-2) and he’s unbeaten third up (1:1-0-0). I just worry about how he’ll go with 61.5kg. Glamour Packed actually beat Giant Leap last start by 0.3L, but she probably had more of an ideal run. She’s a bit hit and miss but has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). Connections would probably be a bit more confident if she was racing on a soft track, but she can run on to some extent. We’ll just have to see which version of herself turns up.

Suggested bet: Giant Leap, Call Again and Temptacion – each way

Race 5 – Seacorp Handicap – 1200m – 12:54pm

2 – Kissonallforcheeks
5 – Crystal Spirit
3 – Puli
8 – All Day Session

Comment: Kissonallforcheeks has some of the best form in this race. She hasn’t had a trial leading into this race, but she does go well fresh (3:1-1-0). She’s won at this distance before too (2:1-1-0) but hasn’t raced at Belmont. Conditions look to suit and as long as she handles Belmont, with her class, she should be going close. Crystal Spirit showed a really good turn of foot last week, narrowly going down to Iseered Iseered, which looks like good form to follow. He’s drawn wide here, so I suspect he’ll go back again. He’s proven at this track/distance (8:4-2-1) and has won on a good track (11:1-4-0), but he probably does go slightly better on a soft track. There’s no reason why he should run a bad race. Puli went into his first up run without a trial and that freshness looks to have gotten the better of him. He loves this track/distance (7:4-2-0) and has won on a good track (8:2-2-0). With one run under his belt, he should improve and will be giving them something to run down. All Day Session won last start. He steps up in distance here though, which I’m not entirely sure if that was a good idea given his track/distance record (4:0-0-1). The good track won’t be in his favour either (12:0-1-2). At least Pike jumps on board, which is always a positive.

Suggested bet: Kissonallforcheeks, Crystal Spirit and Puli – each way

Race 6 – Morley Growers Market Handicap – 1200m – 1:31pm

6 – Come Magic
5 – Bragwell
10 – Smashing
12 – Saturday Sun

Comment: Come Magic lead all the way last start to record a win. She’s yet to place at this distance (1:0-0-) but that attempt was in the G2 Karrakatta. Prior to that race, she placed third in the G3 Gimcrack, so she definitely has ability and she’s won at Belmont (2:1-1-0). From barrier 2, she should easily get to the front and give them something to run down. Bragwell won a trial leading into this race. He has a good first up record (3:1-1-0) and loves this track/distance (2:1-1-0). There’s no doubt that he would have preferred a soft track, but he should go well here. Smashing missed the jump slightly last start which probably hurt her chances. She’s up in class here but does drop back down in distance. While she would have preferred a soft track, she has won at this track/distance (3:1-0-0). She’s at the peak of her powers. Saturday Sun is on the one-week backup after narrowly going down to Reliable Star last start. He loves this track/distance (4:2-1-0) and doesn’t have to carry any weight. From barrier 5, he should get an ideal run too. He’s not without his chances.

Suggested bet: Come Magic, Bragwell, Smashing and Saturday Sun – each way

Race 7 – Black Heart Bart Stakes – 1200m – 2:11pm

2 – Laverrod
3 – Massimo
4 – Watch Me Dance
9 – Mystical View

Comment: Laverrod has put in two winning trials leading into this race. Considering that he won two races in Melbourne last preparation, he’s quite well weighted here. He’s won first up before too (5:1-1-2) and is no stranger to this distance (9:4-3-2). He’s only placed at Belmont though (4:0-2-2) and hasn’t raced over this distance at Belmont. From barrier 4, he should get a lovely ride and Pike stays on board. Massimo wasn’t his best last preparation, but he has won a trial leading into this race. He’s won first up before (3:1-0-0), but what I love the most is his track/distance record (3:1-2-0). With a new trainer, we could see a new and improved horse. Watch Me Dance hasn’t been seen at the races since May, but her form last preparation was really good. Her trial leading into this race does look disappointing on paper, but she did finish only 2.6L off the winner. She’s won first up before (4:1-0-2) and placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1). My only concern is the wide barrier and how far back she’ll get. Mystical View has improved this preparation and showed a great turn of foot last start. Thanks to that win, she’s unbeaten at track/distance (1:1-0-0). She’s also proven on a good track (5:1-1-1). With the incredibly low weight that she has to carry, she could surprise.

Suggested bet: Laverrod, Massimo, Watch Me Dance and Mystical View – each way

Race 8 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 2100m – 2:54pm

1 – Born To Try
2 – Sowar
11 – Sugar Cain
9 – Vintage Stock

Comment: Born To Try is just ultra-consistent. She’s placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0) and I really like the turn of foot she showed two starts ago over 2200m. From barrier 9, she should go back and seeing as she has to carry 60kg, this does make me a little bit nervous. Hopefully, her consistency continues here. Sowar is on the one-week backup and is coming off a win. As he’s up in class, he only rises 0.5kg in the weights. He can run on to some extent and he’s placed at this track/distance (3:0-1-1). He should run a good race. Sugar Cain has improved at her past 2 starts and rarely runs a bad race for Pike. She does seem to do her best work from the back of the field, and she’ll appreciate returning to a good track. Seeing as she’s won at this track/distance (7:2-0-1), she should go well. Vintage Stock finished second to Sowar last start and gets 1.5kg on him here. She seems to have turned a good this preparation, so I’m willing to forgive her track/distance record (2:0-0-0). Whether those improved performances can be put down to a soft track, we’ll find out here.

Suggested bet: Born To Try, Sowar, Sugar Cain and Vintage Stock

Race 9 – Iron Jack Handicap – 1400m – 3:30pm

1 – Ohbeeh
5 – Karijini Aurora
4 – Em Tee Aye
3 – Rebel Knight

Comment: Ohbeeh finally got a much-deserved win on the board last start. He loves this track/distance (3:1-2-0) and only has to carry 57kg due to Victoria’s claim, which puts him back in the race. The biggest concern is barrier 12, but seeing as he does like to lead, this could be a blessing in disguise. I just have a funny feeling about him. Karijini Aurora has really improved at her past 2 starts, though I’m not exactly sure why. She’s proven at this track/distance (4:1-0-2) and has drawn perfectly in barrier 2, considering that she likes to settle in the first few. It’s hard to fault her. Em Tee Aye maybe could have won last start had he not raced wide throughout. He probably needed the run for fitness too, seeing as he was first up. He’s up in distance to one that is probably his favourite (5:2-1-1) and he’s won second up before (2:1-0-0). From barrier 10 he may have no choice but to go back like last start or use energy earlier on to go forward like he did last preparation. We should see an improvement here. Rebel Knight seems to have found his good form this preparation. I particularly like his form surrounding Kaptain Kaos, finishing second to him last start. He drops in class here, so does rise 2kg off that run. At least he’s placed at this track/distance though, thanks to last start (2:0-1-0).

Suggested bet: Ohbeeh, Karijini Aurora and Em Tee Aye – each way


Best Bet

Race 4 – Giant Leap

Quaddie

R6: 5, 6, 10, 12
R7: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9
R8: 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 11
R9: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Confidence rating

My confidence is like a roller coaster this week. I think races 1, 4, 5, 6 and 7 are my most confident, as my top tip should at least place (hopefully!).

Last Week’s Results

R4-boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4: 6/9
Top picks: -, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, -, 1st, 1st, 3rd, –
Best bet: 3rd
Quaddie: yes
Profit: +7.58 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)

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