Belmont 25/07/2020

Conditions

Rail – 12m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 22 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – Agent Fresh Plate – 1200m – 12:11pm

Our Boy Dylan started his career off in a nice fashion and then was probably his own undoing before going for a spell. The trial leading into this race was extra impressive. He’s drawn nicely and looks to have ability. Queen Brown will be glad that the track has dried out, as she certainly goes better on a good track and from the middle of the pack. Her regular rider Chris did jump off in favour of Clairvoyance (who has now been scratched), but this horse looks to be going places too, which her last 600m times some of the best in this race. The Verdict is a bit of an unknown, having her first race start today. However, she’s been improving with each trial, which is good to see. Her last trial which she won was also over 1000m, so this distance doesn’t look to be too short for her. Her trial form is good, and she’s got a good barrier. She should only improve from this experience. Mischievous Diva finished third behind Clairvoyance last start and maybe I’m biased, but this looks like good form to follow. She may have gotten a bit too far back in the race, so from that inside barrier, she should be able to settle into a better position. A bit of rain would have made connections a little bit more confident, but the step up in distance should benefit.

1 – Our Boy Dylan
7 – Queen Brown
11 – The Verdict
9 – Mischievous Diva

Race 2 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1000m – 12:51pm

Classy Lassy has had two nice trials leading into this race, both over 1000m. She certainly goes better fresh up and she has a good first up record (3:2-0-0). She’s not as experienced as Sir Mambo but should find the front easily from that barrier and has hopefully matured from last preparation. Sir Mambo is the classy horse in this race, which could see him easily winning it without surprising. He only has to carry 58.5kg due to Madi’s claim, which puts him right back in the race. The form surrounding his races is extra impressive and dropping back to 1000m should definitely benefit him. He’s a serious threat. Semigel looked to have gotten too far back last start, plus he went into that race without a trial. He’s drawn wide, so may get too far back again, but he should have fitness on his side second up, plus his second up record is good (2:0-1-0). The distance looks to suit, and Pike is always a positive. Tinto Belle was a bit of a hit and miss horse last preparation. Her trial was behind Red Can Man, so the numbers probably aren’t a true indicator of her ability. There does seem to be a turn of foot somewhere in her, as long as she can get out. Great value place bet.
5 – Classy Lassy
1 – Sir Mambo
3 – Semigel
7 – Tinto Belle

Race 3 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Handicap – 1000m – 1:31pm

Indian Pacific really should be winning this race and deserves to be the short-priced favourite he is. He’s beaten fantastic horses this preparation including Windstorm and Levitate, before being run down to finish third last start. If he can jump well, he shouldn’t need to use too much energy to get to the front. He is up in class but won’t know himself with just 55.5kg on his back. His race to lose really. Cryptic Love just loves to run from the back and with her turn of foot isn’t normally a problem, unless she gets stuck in traffic. She was slightly disappointing last start, with no real explanation for the poor performance. Her last start over this distance was amazing (two starts ago), so if she can bring that here, she’s a threat. Tranquilla Sunrise comes out of the listed Beaufine where he failed to fire. He’s had an incredible 85 starts, so maybe he’s lost that passion, but his runs at the end of last preparation don’t suggest that. Leading with only 52.5kg due to Beaux’s claim isn’t too much to ask over this distance. He’s second up so hopefully can bounce back from last start. Fire And Rain just really hasn’t returned to his former winning self yet. We saw a glimpse of his ability two starts ago where he finished second behind Cryptic Love, but then only finished mid-field in the Beaufine. He gets 2kg on Cryptic Love here and a better barrier but turning the tables will be a challenging task.
5 – Indian Pacific
3 – Cryptic Love
6 – Tranquilla Sunrise
2 – Fire And Rain

Race 4 – Peninsula Dining Room Handicap – 1000m – 2:08pm

Bedouin Belle was racing pretty consistently last preparation and followed that up with a third first up, without a trial. She has a good second up record (3:1-0-1), so should improve off that run. She drops 3kg off that run due to the rise in class and has drawn slightly wider but in a race where there’s no clear superstar, she should go well. Sea Waif rises significantly in class after an ok performance first up where she finished sixth. Her career statistics suggest that she’s better than that (7:1-3-0) and her second up record is good (1:0-1-0). Her barrier and weight are all in her favour and she could run a cheeky race. Pearls And Prawns has had a long time between preparations, having not raced since December 2018, before coming back last month. She’s had three starts since then and she has been improving with each run which is great to see. She was absolutely on fire in the autumn carnival in 2018, so it would be great to see her bounce back to that form. She’s drawn wide but this does look to be a suitable race. He’s A Gunslinger definitely does his best work when he’s leading, so some energy may be needed early on to get to that position from the wide barrier. He comes into this race without a trial and his first up record is ok (3:0-0-1). With such an even field anything can happen.
3 – Bedouin Belle
9 – Sea Waif
2 – Pearls And Prawns
5 – He’s A Gunslinger

Race 5 – Don Martin 70-Plus Birthday Handicap – 2200m – 2:40pm

Roman Flirt is a horse to be reckoned with this preparation, with finishing in the top three at her last five starts. 2000m may be her ideal distance, but with her ability the extra 200m shouldn’t be a problem. She’s drawn extremely well compared to her last two starts and will only carry 56.5kg with Chris’ claim. Truly Great just has a fantastic turn of foot, though was beaten by a better horse last start. He’s on the one-week backup and is yet to race beyond 1600m, so those have a few question marks over it. He would have preferred a soft track and hasn’t drawn as favourable as my top tip. However, Pike chooses this horse over Roman Flirt and you should never rule out a Pike/Peters/Williams horse. Watch out for my top two tips to be battling it out! Moderator was disappointing last start, where he looked to get too far back. From that insider barrier, he should be able to settle into a more preferred position. Connections would have been praying for rain but at least he’s raced over 2000m before (finishing fourth), so the distance isn’t too much of a query. British Bessy was in career best form this time last year, yet doesn’t seem to have the same zest this preparation. Her run four starts ago behind Picture Picture, where she finished third, was good and she loves this distance (6:3-1-2). Fingers crossed for connections that she can find her old self again.
3 – Roman Flirt
5 – Truly Great
8 – Moderator
1 – British Bessy

Race 6 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1300m – 3:20pm

Giant Leap is probably a bit of an outsider and I definitely would have preferred for him to be racing on a soft track, but given how even the field is, I think he’s worth the chance. He’s placed in the top three at all four career starts (4:1-1-2) and has been improving with each run. He has form behind Cliffs Of Comfort and beat Bolshoi Gal last start, who came out and won on Thursday. He’s drawn lovely and gets a good weight with the rise in class. I may be blinded slightly here by the cerise and white, but he can run a good race. Levitate is a horse with plenty of ability. He does have to carry 59.5kg but has previously won carry 60.5kg. so that shouldn’t be a problem. The form surrounding his races is second to none and honestly, he’s a horse you’d love to own. Pike looks to have had his choice of rides here, but I wouldn’t read too much into that, given his loyalty to Mr Peters. Track, distance and barriers are all in his favour. Absolutely no reason he can’t win. Seminole Brave finished second to Levitate and gets 1.5kg on him here. This horse has been making his ways through the grades nicely and looks to have his fair share of ability. His career statistics are amazing (3:2-1-0) and he also gets a good barrier. He’s a horse with some versatility in where he can sit in the race and this may prove to be valuable. Boomtastic is on the one-week backup, while coming off a win. The form surrounding her races isn’t as good as Levitate and 1000m may be her ideal distance, but you just can’t knock a horse that is running as well as she is. The only reason she’s further down my list is the wide barrier and quick backup, but she can win without surprising at all and rounds out a race I certainly wouldn’t be betting in.
8 – Giant Leap
1 – Levitate
6 – Seminole Brave
2 – Boomtastic

Race 7 – H.G. Bolton Sprint – 1200m – 3:55pm

Red Can Man absolutely took off in his one trial leading into this race, winning by 5.9L! He was undefeated last preparation, winning all three starts, while beating some great horses in the process. His first up record is fantastic (4:2-1-1) and I’m glad there’s not the unknown of a soft track. Peter Knuckey replaces his usual rider of Shaun McGruddy who is suspended, but this horse just makes his own luck. Cup Night is the clear threat in this race. His trials too have been good leading into this race, which does suggest that he’s gotten over his little virus from earlier in the year. He did beat Valour Road in February, but if we look back to October, he beat The Velvet King, who is now in Melbourne, so this horse must have ability. The wide barrier is my only concern, but this horse can run on. Samizat was disappointing first up, but he looked to have just gotten too far back and perhaps even boxed in. We know he’s better than that, as he beat Regal Power in November, which is fabulous form. He’s drawn wide which is a concern but look for him to bounce back here. Abdicator was racing in tough company early this preparation, yet he didn’t embarrass himself at all! Last start wasn’t his best but it looks to have perhaps gone too hard too early. Connections would have preferred a softer track, but he has an amazing distance record in his favour (4:1-2-0). Great place value bet.
7 – Red Can Man
3 – Cup Night
5 – Samizat
4 – Abdicator

Race 8 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1400m – 4:30pm

Inspirational Girl is just flying and while this race looks to be a touch harder, it’s certainly still winnable. She’s only tasted defeat once in her career where she finished second (6:5-1-0) so she has a tonne of ability. She’s drawn nicely and has a fantastic turn of foot. She also has beaten a few of these horses in the past and there’s no reason she can’t beat them again. Serenity Bay would be winning this hands down if it wasn’t for Inspirational Girl. This horse has finished in the top three at all of her starts (9:4-3-2) and faced some good horses in the process. Stepping back down in distance should benefit her, especially as she doesn’t have that turn of foot that some of these other horses have. She’ll give my top tip a run for her money. Massimo has really only run one bad race in his past five starts, where he looked to have gotten too far back and it was maybe a touch too short distance wise too. Despite winning last start he does drop down in class, but luckily isn’t penalised too much due to Madi’s claim. The form surrounding his races is fantastic and he should run another great race. Turbo Power finished second behind Inspirational Girl last start but actually gives her 0.5kg despite the results. He too has been racing well this preparation and there’s really not much to complain about with him. The wide barrier and class of horses he’s facing are the only concern. Great value tip.
8 – Inspirational Girl
13 – Serenity Bay
1 – Massimo
14 – Turbo Power

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 5:05pm

Aberdeen Queen has drawn an absolutely shocking barrier but I’m hoping that her ability can help her overcome this. She did also finish second from out wide last start, so if they use a similar tactic that would be good. Her only bad run in five starts was behind some pretty good horses, so it’s probably not as bad as it looks. This is a tougher race but fingers crossed she can bring home the chocolates. Position Of Power is looking to make it three wins in a row, which is certainly a possibility here. He’s drawn significantly better than my top tip and will only carry 58kg with Chris’ claim. He can run on which is good and may be valuable here. Connections would be more confident if the rain had come, but he’s racing at his best at the moment. Double The Pro has a deadly turn of foot that may be the difference between winning and not, as long as he can get out. The 60kg has a question mark over it, but he did finish third last start carrying the same weight. He’s been racing consistently well and should be in the finish once again. Put A Spell On You has a bit in her favour in the challenge to beat my three top tips. She will appreciate stepping up to 1400m and will only have 53kg on back. Her results lately haven’t been her best but she can bounce back here.
3 – Aberdeen Queen
1 – Position Of Power
2 – Double The Pro
11 – Put A Spell On You

Best Bet

Race 8 – Inspirational Girl

Confidence rating

My confidence actually isn’t too bad this week. Everything just seemed to flow, and I feel I have a good mix of favourites and a bit of value in my top fours. I’m mostly concerned about races 2, 5 and 7 and I wouldn’t touch race 6 with a bar of soap! In terms of best bets, it would have been Indian Pacific but he’s just a bit too short for me odd wise, hence I went with Inspirational Girl.

Last Week’s Results

R3 – boxed first four
R6 – exacta
Winners in top 4 – 10/10
Top picks: 3rd, 3rd(no pay), 1st, -, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, -, 1st
Best bet: 3rd
Profit: -3.22