Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 24/08/2019

Conditions

Rail – 10m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 17, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Go Racing For Free Before The Footy Maiden – 1200m – 11:53pm

Knot Known trialled well behind Paty’s Forecast who was heavily tipped at his last start. Winnie’s Wine raced well last start and Pike jumps on board, however, it’s a concern if she gets too far back and stuck in traffic. Kristella has been racing ok and did show a nice turn of foot two starts ago on a soft track. Mosheammy was disappointing last start, but she trialled ok prior and could bounce back, but she’s obviously not a 51/1 for no reason.
5 – Knot Known
6 – Winnie’s Wine
8 – Kristella
10 Mosheammy

Race 2 – Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1200m – 12:29pm

Sir Mambo is up in class and always seems to be the bridesmaid but it wouldn’t be surprising if he got the win here. Lookout is on the one-week backup, but he has been racing consistently and has a good soft track record (8:1-3-3). I tossed up between my top two picks for ages and I think either horse can win. Fairtrusive has a 2kg swing on Lookout and should improve on previous runs. Playing Marika is down in distance and has shown an impressive turn of foot, with a good record on soft track (3:1-0-1) too.
4 – Sir Mambo
6 – Lookout
7 – Fairtrusive
3 – Playing Marika

Race 3 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1000m – 1:09pm

Massimo won his trial and first race, so he’s definitely a horse to follow. Amarillo Rose was 3rd behind Massimo last start and gets a 2kg swing here. Specialism trialled ok but was very impressive last preparation. Excelestial has been racing well and does seem to have some ability.
2 – Massimo
3 – Amarillo Rose
1 – Specialism
7 – Excelestial

Race 4 – Vale Jack Cohen Handicap – 1000m – 1:49pm

Dawn Mission has trialled very well and showed a great turn of foot last preparation, including beating Don’t Fuss. She’s up in class though and she is one of my least confident tips today. Glassgow Girl was scratched last week but back here. She’s been racing well with a great soft track record (5:1-3-1) but the weight is a concern for me. Olga Louisa is up in class but has won her trial and last race, plus it’s not a concern if the rain has started pouring by now too as she’s won on a heavy track (1:1-0-0). Citichant has a good track/distance record (5:1-2-1).
8 – Dawn Mission
3 – Glassgow Girl
6 – Olga Louisa
5 – Citichant

Race 5 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1200m – 2:29pm

Little Fish has shown he’s come back just as good this preparation, winning last start. Shinju has had very nice runs since coming to WA, plus he loves a soft track too (2:1-1-0). Wanna Be Good has shown a good turn of foot in all starts, so he could surprise here. Truly Belong was very disappointing last start but had good form before that, I’ll give her one more chance.
1 – Little Fish
6 – Shinju
3 – Wanna Be Good
5 – Truly Belong

Race 6 – Ian Riley 60th Birthday Handicap – 1400m – 3:09pm

Uni Time is just a great horse, having placed in the top 3 at every start. Kia Ora Star showed a very nice turn of foot last start. Express Flirt was 3rd to Uni Time’s 2nd last start but I don’t think he’ll turn the tables this start (worse soft track record (4:0-0-2). Lickety Split has been racing well this preparation.
2 – Uni Time
7 – Kia Ora Star
3 – Express Flirt
5 – Lickety Split

Race 7 – Amelia Park Handicap – 2100m – 3:45pm

Paddy’s Shadow has had nice runs in his previous two starts. Noir De Rue has been racing well. Spiritual Warrior won last start, and this does look like the race to follow horses out of (with Paddy’s Shadow coming 2nd and Noir De Rue 3rd) but he’s a bit inconsistent for me. Mr Alby won two starts ago and should be leading here, but he’s a very hit and miss horse.
10 – Paddy’s Shadow
9 – Noir De Rue
13 – Spiritual Warrior
7 – Mr Alby

Race 8 – Peninsula Mile – 1650m – 4:25pm

Free Trade is on top once again, but this is definitely a stronger race and he’s on the one-week backup. Abdicator has placed at all soft track starts (6:2-3-1). Snowchino is a winner of her last three starts, so can’t knock that winning form. Taxagano has placed in the top three all starts this preparation and has form behind some good horses including Free Trade last start.
9 – Free Trade
2 – Abdicator
13 – Snowchino
6 – Taxagano

Race 9 – Jesse & Sarah’s Mongol Derby Recognition Handicap – 1650m – 5:05pm

Early Explorer is up in class, but it does seem like he could be a horse with skill. Misty Lad should hopefully have fitness under his belt after running 4th the last three starts. Bold Success had a very nice turn of foot last start, but his form isn’t the best. Blackwood River certainly surprised me last starts with his win, but I would like to see a repeat performance here if I’m to put him on top in the future.
10 – Early Explorer
7 – Misty Lad
3 – Bold Success
8 – Blackwood River


Best Bet

Race 6 – Uni Time

Confidence rating

Never seen so many evenly matched races and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a few upsets, which is definitely not helping my confidence!

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