Belmont 24/07/2021

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Soft 6
Forecast – Max 18 degrees, shower or two

Race 1 – Allan Guelfi Plate – 1000m – 12:13pm

7 – State Of Power
6 – Simple Logic
8 – The Front Bar
4 – City Regal

Comment: State Of Power finally got a win on the board. That win was on a heavy track, so that gives me some confidence here. She’s drawn wide, so may have to use some energy early on to get to the front. Conditions look to be similar here, so she should go well. Simple Logic is coming off a trial win on a heavy track. He’s having his first race here, so should only improve off this run. The Front Bar overcame a wide barrier to finish second last start. That was on a heavy track, which just adds more credibility to the run. She’s drawn better here, and Pike jumps on board. There’s no reason for her to run a bad race. City Regal has been improving with each trial, winning his latest one. There’s just a question mark over whether he’ll handle the heavy going and wide barrier.

Suggested bet: State Of Power, Simple Logic, The Front Bar and City Regal – each way

Race 2 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1400m – 12:49pm

1 – Ohbeeh
3 – Snippy Miss
2 – Mr Mt Walker
7 – Black Lightning

Comment: Ohbeeh placed third last start on a heavy track. He’s placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0) and only has to carry 58kg due to Holly’s claim. He’s drawn wide but did win from barrier 10 two starts ago. Snippy Miss placed outside of the top three for the first time this preparation last start, finishing fourth. She’s won on a heavy track before though (2:1-0-1) and Pike jumps on board. She’s also drawn wide but she should easily get the front with Ohbeeh or settle one back. Look for her to return to the top two here. Mr Mt Walker finished fourth behind Snippy Miss last start (two starts ago for her) and gets 2kg on her here. While he too should easily find the front from barrier 3, which is important seeing as he doesn’t have a turn of foot, his form isn’t as strong as Snippy Miss. The heavy track is also an unknown for him. Black Lightning is coming off a win at this distance. Her form could be stronger though and I’m just not sure if she likes a wet track.

Suggested bet: Ohbeeh and Snippy Miss – each way

Race 3 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Handicap – 1300m – 1:29pm

4 – Special View
3 – Reign Of Fire
7 – Speed Dream
5 – Jedi Mind

Comment: Special View is coming off a win first up. As a result of that win, he’s unbeaten on a heavy track (1:1-0-0). He’s never officially raced over 1300m but has won over 1200 and 1600m, so the extra 100m shouldn’t prove to be a problem. There’s just a question mark on whether he’ll handle the step up in class. Reign Of Fire just always seems to find a few better. If he can settle further forward from barrier 5, that could improve his chances. He’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and has very good form surrounding his races. He’s yet to place on a soft or heavy track, but otherwise, he should go well. Speed Dream maybe could have won last start if he had gotten a clear run earlier in the straight. He’s been improving with each run and it’s hard to fault him. He’s just never been tested on a heavy track. Jedi Mind has been racing well and handling the step up in class. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) but isn’t known for being a wet tracker. He’s drawn a bit wide but has shown he can run on.

Suggested bet: Special View, Reign Of Fire, Speed Dream and Jedi Mind – each way

Race 4 – Morley Growers Market Handicap – 2200m – 2:08pm

2 – Zaratite
4 – Treasured Crown
9 – Melarab
3 – Secret Pearl

Comment: Zaratite is literally knocking on the door for a win. He’s placed second at both starts this preparation and hasn’t finished that far off the winner. He’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and a heavy track (2:0-1-0). Hopefully, he can go one better here. Treasured Crown turned a corner last start, coming out and winning. Whether this can be put down to the heavy track, which he’s unbeaten over (1:1-0-0), or the step up in distance, I guess we’ll find out here. Pike does jump off in favour of Zaratite, but I think this horse can go close. Melarab led all the way to win last start over 2100m on a heavy track, which holds him in good stead here. He definitely does his best work when leading, so hopefully, he doesn’t have to use too much energy from barrier 8 to get that position. His form isn’t as strong, but the conditions look to suit. Secret Pearl has been racing consistently over these longer distances. She gets her fifth jockey in six starts, but Jason does know how to ride her (5:3-0-1). She may just find one better here in terms of a win but is certainly in with a chance at placing.

Suggested bet: Zaratite and Treasured Crown – each way

Race 5 – Perth Racing Club Membership Handicap – 1300m – 2:40pm

4 – Little Flirt
6 – Dunbar
10 – Rocky Path
9 – Hot Mix

Comment: Little Flirt is yet to place outside of the top two this preparation. She showed a really good turn of foot last start on a soft track at Northam. She’s yet to race on a heavy track but has been going well on a soft track. Despite being up in class, she can make it 3 wins in a row here. Dunbar did have excuses last start and may have won if he didn’t get blocked in the straight. He’s third up, so should be spot on fitness wise. A few things just seem to trip him up every time and I do worry that from barrier 9, he’ll get back again and we’ll see a repeat performance of last start. Rocky Path usually has a great turn of foot, but the heavy track probably just took that spark away. He still managed to finish third though. He rises 2kg off that run without Kristy’s claim here but still has a nice barrier. He’s placed at this track/distance before (3:0-2-0) and I think he could surprise here at great odds. Hot Mix probably just got a touch too far back last start. She was first up though, so should improve off that run, plus she’s unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0). She faces some more experienced horses but can run a cheeky race.

Suggested bet: Little Flirt, Dunbar, Rocky Path and Hot Mix – each way

Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1600m – 3:20pm

1 – Sentimental Queen
10 – Brave Dream
5 – Vital Flirt
4 – Ginger Baker

Comment: Sentimental Queen placed second last start on a heavy track. She has to carry 60kg with no claiming apprentice, but she did win first up carrying 60kg. She has only won at this distance once, but that was two starts ago (4:1-0-0) and has never placed at this track/distance (2:0-0-0). However, I think she’s a better horse this preparation. It’s just a question of whether the weight, distance and heavy going get too much for her. Brave Dream just keeps getting back in all of her races. For this reason, stepping up to 1600m for the first time may benefit her. If she had gotten a bit more luck last start, she probably would have finished closer. She’s knocking on the door for a win, but she’ll need to get some luck here. Vital Flirt is looking to make it four wins in five starts, finishing second at the fifth. She’s unbeaten on a heavy track (1:1-0-0) and placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). The wide barrier may just cause a few problems. Ginger Baker is in a similar boat to Vital Flirt. He’s also unbeaten on a heavy track (1:1-0-0) but has drawn a better barrier. I just think Vital Flirt has slightly better form surrounding her races and she has won more convincingly. No reason why this horse can’t win here though.

Suggested bet: Sentimental Queen, Brave Dream, Vital Flirt and Ginger Baker – each way

Race 7 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 3:50pm

2 – Notorious One
5 – Speedy Miss
12 – Giant Leap
8 – Vital Blast

Comment: Notorious One showed a good turn of foot on the heavy track last start. He rises 5kg off that run but 59kg doesn’t seem too bad seeing as he’s won with 60kg before. He’s unbeaten second up (2:2-0-0), at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and on a heavy track (1:1-0-0), so conditions definitely look to suit! Speedy Miss just seems to find one or two better. She’s on the one-week backup after placing third on a heavy track. She loves this track/distance (7:2-3-1) and only has to carry 54kg due to Holly’s claim. Besides the one-week backup, I’m concerned about the wide barrier. Otherwise, she should run a good race. Giant Leap had just a quiet trial leading into this race. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and placed first up before (4:0-2-2). He hasn’t raced since February and never on a heavy track, so he’ll take improvement from this run. Vital Blast can be hit and miss but is coming off a win on a heavy track. He’s also won at Belmont (6:1-0-1) and this distance (4:1-0-1) but never together. The form surrounding that win is good, but he might just find one better here.

Suggested bet: Notorious One, Speedy Miss and Giant Leap – each way

Race 8 – H.G. Bolton Sprint – 1200m – 4:20pm

3 – Nerodio
7 – Amasenus
8 – Montelena
5 – Last Of The Line

Comment: Nerodio is looking to make it four wins in a row after winning the key lead up race to this one. He loves this track/distance (7:4-2-0) and should get an ideal run from barrier 3. No excuses for him to run a bad race. Amasenus finished third to Nerodio but only gets 0.5kg on him here. She did have a few excuses in the stewards’ report, but I don’t think it was enough given the margin. Stepping up in distance will suit, seeing as she’s won at this track/distance (2:1-1-0). She’s drawn just outside Nerodio so they could be tracking each other, which will make for an interesting race! Montelena trialled nicely leading into this race, finishing second. She’s won first up before (4:1-0-1) and at this track (7:5-0-1). Her 1100m trial suggests that 1200m won’t be too short for her, but she will only improve as she steps up in distance. Last Of The Line comes out of the same trial as Montelena where he finished sixth. He goes well fresh (3:2-0-1) but does race below 1400m for the first time plus he’s unknown on a heavy track. If he can handle these conditions, he could surprise.

Suggested bet: Nerodio and Amasenus – each way

Race 9 – Heineken 3 Handicap – 1000m – 5:00pm

14 – Olga Louisa
12 – Dia De La Raza
4 – Agent Jay
7 – Eeyore Wayz

Comment: Olga Louisa is up in class but that does mean she drops 3kg on last start’s win. Her form could be stronger, but her biggest drawcard is that she’s unbeaten on a heavy track (2:2-0-0). She’s also won at this track/distance (7:2-0-1) and has drawn nicely in barrier 3, which should easily enable her to get to the front. If she can handle the class, she’s great value! Dia De La Raza surprised everyone last start. Beating Comes A Time looks like good form to follow and he loves a heavy track (3:2-0-0). He’s drawn just inside Olga Louisa, so he could track her into the race or lead with her. He’s also up in class but can run a good race. Agent Jay lead all the way to win on a heavy track. He only has to carry 54.5kg due to Holly’s claim, which is 4kg less than last start. He does drop down in distance though and is yet to place at this track/distance (2:0-0-0). That can easily change here though. Eeyore Wayz also drops back to 1000m which should definitely suit seeing as he likes this track/distance (5:3-0-1). The form surrounding his races is quite good too. He’s yet to race on a heavy track but has won on a soft track (6:2-0-2). If he handles that he should go well in this very even race.

Suggested bet: Olga Louisa, Dia De La Raza, Agent Jay and Eeyore Wayz – each way

Best Bet

Race 4 – Zaratite

Confidence rating

My confidence wasn’t too bad but then the track got upgraded to a soft track and I had based a few of my tips on a heavy track. Race 9 is definitely the hardest race of the day and one I’d avoid betting in. I’m hoping to bounce back after last week’s results.

Last Week’s Results

R6-quinella
Winners in top 4: 5/9
Top picks: -, -, -, -, -, 2nd, -, -, 1st
Best bet: –
Profit: -13.7 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)