Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 23/05/2020

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 27 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1600m – 11:58pm

I Hope You Dance has been racing consistently but is yet to get a win on the board in 15 starts (15:0-7-2). She’s finished second at her previous two starts behind some good horses and gets Pike in the saddle again. She gets every chance here once again. Hip Wiggle doesn’t have the form like I Hope You Dance but has been racing well this preparation. She steps up to the 1600m which has a slight question mark over it. However, given with where she likes to sit in the race, her barrier and weight, this extra distance could see her get a win on the board. Kazkazi is very versatile on where he can sit in a race and I think this could be an advantage from that wide barrier. He’s finished second three times in his past four starts and looks like one that will appreciate stepping up to 1600m. Float Our Boat is yet to place in three starts but has consistently finished fourth at those starts. He comes out of the same race at I Hope You Dance but meets him the same at the weights. He’ll be fit third up and should go well.
8 – I Hope You Dance
11 – Hip Wiggle
2 – Kazkazi
3 – Float Our Boat

Race 2 – Laverrod Western Racepix Ascot Horse Of The Year Plate – 1300m – 12:37pm

Charleton Eddie is looking to make it four wins in a row. The 60.5kg and stepping up in distance has questions marks over it, but the fact that his past two wins have been very convincing, he should be fine here. He has experience over most of these runners and should get to the front easily if he jumps well. Do note that he has had four weeks between runs with no trial in between. Miss Ivy League got a win on the board last start, after improving with each run. That was on a soft track, but she should bring confidence from that run. She may have to settle further back from that barrier or use a bit of petrol to get to the front, but with Kyra on fire at the moment, she’ll give my top tip a run for his money. Crown of Flowers looked to have some ability based on her most recent trial but then faced some very good horses first up, where she finished fourth. This race doesn’t look any easier, but I expect her to improve with one race under her belt now. Dad’s Bigheaded finished second to a horse that Crown of Flowers finished fourth to (different races though). He also finished fourth behind Charleton Eddie at his first start. He’s drawn well and if he can settle into a good position he can surprise.
1 – Charleton Eddie
2 – Miss Ivy League
7 – Crown of Flowers
4 – Dad’s Bigheaded

Race 3 – Heineken 3 Handicap – 1400m – 1:17pm

Resortman is facing his toughest race to date, with quite a few possible winners. However, he’s two for two, has a good turn of foot and has won from a wide barrier before. Whether he’s suited better over 1400m than his previous starts at 1200m remains to be seen. Either way, he’ll be right in it. Baby Blues is the second most experienced horse in this race. She comes off a win last start and is yet to finish outside of the top three in her past five starts. She’s drawn a bit wide but has a good turn of foot to help overcome this. Connections also make good use of Kristy’s claim, meaning she only has to carry 58kg. Fuhrer is another horse that probably wasn’t up to the listed races and their distances in late summer/early spring. After two months off he came out and won in a nice fashion. He carried 60.5kg then so that shouldn’t be a problem here. He probably would have been higher up my list if we were racing on a soft track but expect him to be right in the finish. Irritable Rodnee has some great career statistics (3:1-2-0) and the race he won does have some good form surrounding it. He rises in class here but I think he could be worth a cheeky each way bet.
3 – Resortman
1 – Baby Blues
2 – Fuhrer
8 – Irritable Rodnee

Race 4 – Perth Racing At Home Handicap – 2200m – 1:57pm

Utgard Loki is a horse I tip time and time again, with this race being no different. He held them off well last start, which looks like a good form to follow. Considering he’s won over 1400m this preparation, I do hope that performance over 2100m wasn’t all luck. He’s drawn better here and may get some cover if a few of these other horses go forward. Freez’emoff proved that her Geraldton form was good, finishing third to Utgard Loki last start. She gets 2kg on him here, though she’s drawn wider. Her fantastic turn of foot could prove to be the winning difference. Noir De Rue also comes out of Utgard Loki’s race where he finished second. However, his performances before that weren’t very good and he seemed to have a lot of luck in that race. He’s drawn the same barrier and only rises 1kg off that run, but unless my top two tips aren’t at their best it’s hard to see him turning the tables. Red Army won two starts ago at this distance and with Pike in the saddle. Last start he was disappointing, with no excuses mentioned in the stewards’ report. The 61kg looks like a big ask but this is his ideal distance.
5 – Utgard Loki
6 – Freez’emoff
4 – Noir De Rue
1 – Red Army

Race 5 – Gourmet Takeaway Handicap – 2100m – 2:34pm

Petticoat Junction certainly doesn’t have the form like some of these other horses, but she has won her previous two starts over 2200m. She also possesses a great turn of foot, which could be deadly if she can settle into a nice position from that inside barrier. Definitely don’t rule her out. Defiantly is another horse that had Geraldton form but backed that up with a second at Ascot. She likes to settle back and can then run on, so the wide barrier isn’t a concern. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see her winning. Picture Perfect has had nearly a month off since his last race. He finished third in that race after racing wide and then getting blocked in the straight, so it was a good result considering that. Hopefully, Pike can settle him into a nice position and keep him out of trouble.  Divine Shadow steps up to the 2100m for the first time. He’s been racing well though and only has to carry 59kg with Beaux’s claim. The form surrounding his races is also good, but I do worry about the wide barrier, seeing as he’ll want to be no worst than mid-field in the race.
16 – Petticoat Junction
6 – Defiantly
3 – Picture Perfect
1 – Divine Shadow

Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 3:10pm

Showmanship looks to be another talented horse for Mr Peters, winning at his first start before having excuses at his second start where he finished fourth. It’s been nearly a year since that run, which should have given him heaps of time to mature. He’s had just the one quiet trial leading into the race but should go well. Platinum Bullet has been racing well this preparation, recording a win and two thirds. Some good horses were in these races, including Resortman last start, so it looks like good form to follow. She drops 3.5kg off last start which should definitely help and looks to be well suited over this distance. Despite the wide barrier, she’s right in this. Sir Mambo meets Altani 1.5kg better in the weights here but has drawn significantly wider. He won last start with 60kg and only has to carry that here with Kristy’s claim. However, that weight combined with the barrier is a concern. The Belmont track may benefit and watch out for him on a soft track. Altani won last start after coming from the back of the field. She is a bit of a hit and miss horse, plus Pike jumps off in favour of Showmanship. Her career statistics are good (9:4-0-2) and she’s great value if that’s what you like.
13 – Showmanship
10 – Platinum Bullet
1 – Sir Mambo
8 – Altani

Race 7 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 3:40pm

Massimo probably didn’t do himself any favours last start where he over raced with 61kg. However, he did still manage to finish second. He’s drawn wide, however, drops 2.5kg off that run, steps up to 1400m and will be fit third up, all which should benefit him. The only thing that would have made me more confident is if it was a soft track. Black Ducati comes out of the same race as Massimo, where she finished third. She gives him 1kg but has drawn better. She has great career statistics (8:4-2-1) and won at 1400m last time she raced at this distance. She’s a huge threat. Pinsson proved his Geraldton form was just as good as the city, winning at Ascot last start. He’s hasn’t finished outside the top three in his past five starts, recording three wins, a second and a third. The wide barrier may make this record hard to keep given that he likes to race near the front, but his ability can see him winning. Great value tip. Luke’s Gold got held up in the straight last start, so put a line through that race. Prior to that he had been racing well. 1400m seems to be his ideal distance so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him winning.
5 – Massimo
11 – Black Ducati
4 – Pinsson
12 – Luke’s Gold

Race 8 – Skyracing.TV – Provincial Championship Series Final – 1400m – 4:15pm

Power of St George has had a great preparation so far, with two wins and a third. His career statistics are also amazing, only finishing out the top three once (6:3-1-1). He went into this preparation without a trial, so he should be rock fit now. The barrier is a concern, but he has won from out wide before. Hot Style is making me sound like a broken record, but the Geraldton races look like good form to follow. He was racing well in Geraldton and then backed this up with a win at Ascot. Given that 1400m is his ideal distance, this looked like a winning race, had he not drawn out so wide. Pastry last four starts in Kalgoorlie have been good. Pike jumping on board is a clear positive and she gets in quite well at the weights compared to some of these other horses. The only question is whether she’s better over 1200m instead of 1400m. Bee Quick finished second to Power Of St George last start but doesn’t get any weight on him here. She has drawn better and her previous form in the city was also good. Nothing really to complain about and should go well.
7 – Power of St George
4 – Hot Style
16 – Pastry
10 – Bee Quick

Race 9 – Iron Jack Handicap – 1600m – 4:50pm

British Bessy simply got too far back last start. However, prior to that her second behind Utgard Loki was good. Barriers seem to be claiming a lot of victims today, though step back to 1600m should benefit. Son Of Bacchus is probably better suited over the 1600m than the 1100-1200m of his last two starts. He’s third up here so he should also be fit, plus he finished second from a wide barrier last preparation, meaning that shouldn’t be an issue here. Sentimental Friend won’t know himself with just 55kg on his back. He showed a good turn of three starts ago and given his low barrier, this may prove valuable. However, he is up in class and faces horses with better form. Dawn Armada has been racing well since coming to the city, which may be contributed to the lower weights. She looks to be one of the leaders, which should be easy to get if she jumps well. The only question is whether the long Belmont straight gives them too much time to catch her.
2 – British Bessy
5 – Son Of Bacchus
12 – Sentimental Friend
10 – Dawn Armada


Best Bet

Race 4 – Utgard Loki

Confidence rating

It’s great to see so many evenly matched races from a racing fans point of view, but boy does it make it hard to tip winners confidently. Resortman probably would have been my best bet, but I think his odds are too short for a competitive field. We look to end the day on a tough note, with races 7, 8 and 9 being my biggest concerns.

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