Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 22/08/2020

Conditions

Rail – 12m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 21 degrees, late shower or two, mostly likely late afternoon and evening

Race 1 – Go Racing For Free Before The Footy Maiden – 1200m – 11:51pm

Enduring Moment seems to have put things together, recording career best results this preparation, with a third and then a second. It’s nice to see that improvement plus he’s third up now so fitness won’t be an issue. He’s yet to place at this distance (2:0-0-0) but he has placed at this track (2:0-1-1) and on a soft track (1:0-0-1), which gives me confidence. He’s finally drawn a good barrier so should be in the finish once again. Fiery Water looks to have a bit of ability. His maiden run was good where he finished third and was just gunned down late. He looks to have come back in a nice fashion, just narrowly missing a win in a trial. That trial was over 1100m, so the 1200m has no question marks over it first up, plus his only race was over 1200m. He looks to be the leader with Miss Brighton and with the rail out that far, this could be an advantage. He handles the soft (1:0-0-1) and looks to be a threat. Traded Crown has also been improving with each run. As he’s only had the three runs, which have all been on a soft track (3:0-0-1), it’s hard to tell whether a soft track isn’t his favourite or he was still learning his craft. His last 600m times just haven’t been as good as Enduring Moment and he’s drawn wide so I’m hoping that’s the winning difference. Promission doesn’t have the form that my top three tips do, but she has been ticking along nicely in the country. She’s yet to race on a soft track but does go well fresh and first up (1:0-0-1). Her versatile racing pattern is also a positive, but I just think she’ll be slightly outclassed here. However, you must respect it when Peter Fernie brings a horse to the city and Mitchell is riding.
2 – Enduring Moment
5 – Fiery Water
3 – Traded Crown
9 – Promission

Race 2 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1400m – 12:31pm

Comfort Me has been racing consistently well, though be it at a lower class, recording two seconds and a third. His career statistics are good too (5:1-2-1), only placing outside the top three once where he finished fourth. The jump in class does mean that he carries 3.5kg less than his last start and he’s drawn nicely in barrier 2. He steps up to 1400m for the first time which has a question mark over it, given that he’s been racing well at 1000m (though last start’s second was over 1300m). He handles a soft track (3:0-2-0) and should run a good race. Bedouin Belle is basically the definition of consistent, rarely placing outside the top five in her runs. She lost by the narrowest of margins last start so connections will be hoping to go one better here. She only has to carry 56kg with Madi’s claim, which should help to offset the wide barrier. She’s also a horse that steps up to 1400m for the first time, but her racing pattern suggests that this might benefit her. Her track record is good (3:0-1-2) as is her soft track record (4:0-1-2). No reason she can’t win. Playing Marika showed a great turn of foot second up, where she came from last to finish third. She ran the second fastest 600m in that race too, so if she can bring that performance here, she’s a threat. Beside that her other two races this preparation has been average. However, this is certainly her pet distance, with nearly half of her races being run over this distance with good results (11:2-2-3). With a good barrier and if she brings that past performance, she could definitely win. Deception Game ran on nicely last, where he got back in the field, though was extremely disappointing the start before that. Dropping back to 1400m looks to be a smart move by connections, as he has previously performed well over this distance (6:2-2-0). A soft track is by far is not his favourite (13:0-3-1) and the wide barrier just makes things that little bit more difficult.
4 – Comfort Me
2 – Bedouin Belle
3 – Playing Marika
1 – Deception Game

 Race 3 – All Flags Signs & Banners Handicap – 2000m – 1:11pm

Montelena is on the one-week backup, coming off a breathe taking win. I was actually at the track for that race and I thought there was no way she could win from the position that she was in, but she did! She’s looking to make it three wins in a row but does step up to 2000m for the first time. This brings with it some uncertainty, though if last start is anything to go by, she should handle it. Things just seemed to have clicked in her head this preparation. She loves Belmont (5:3-0-1) and a soft track (4:2-0-1) plus gets another great barrier. $1.75 is a touch too short for me odd wise, especially as we don’t know if she can handle the distance. If she can though she’ll be winning! Black Shadow should really appreciate the step up in distance, given that he won in April over 2100m. He’s been getting quite far back in his runs, which puts him at a disadvantage without a deadly turn of foot. I’m hoping that from the inside barrier he’ll be able to settle further forward and then run on from there. The soft track isn’t in his favour (4:1-0-0) but if he brings that Inspirational Girl form, who he finished fourth to first up, he should go well. Noir De Rue certainly hasn’t had a lot of luck lately. He’s in an awkward spot with his high rating but doesn’t have the ability for group races. His win five starts ago was very good, then he was outclassed in the group 3 Strickland Stakes, but then put in a brave performance behind Material Man. If either of those two Noir De Rue’s turn up here he’ll run a good race, combined with the fact that he only has to carry 57.5kg with Madi’s claim and that he likes this distance (8:2-1-1). Juicing Carrots surprised is all a bit last start, finishing second behind Fuhrer who looks to be a good horse. Craig is a great jockey, but this horse may have appreciated having a fresh perspective with Kyra riding. The soft track is a bit of a concern for me (15:2-0-3) but he drops 1.5kg and has a good barrier. He could surprise once again.
7 – Montelena
5 – Black Shadow
1 – Noir De Rue
6 – Juicing Carrots

Race 4 – Peninsula Dining Room Plate – 1000m – 1:51pm

Starfield Impact did finish a distant third to Clairvoyance but given what she then did at the start after, this is by no means a bad reflection on this horse. She perhaps didn’t handle the hot tempo too and while there are a few horses looking to go forward here, it shouldn’t nearly be as hot as Clairvoyance’s race. This time she also only has to carry 57kg with Laqdar’s claim, which also makes this race more suitable. She’s a group 3 winning filly which people seem to have forgotten about. Her second up record is great (2:1-1-0) and she’ll handle the soft track (1:0-0-1). This looks like a very suitable race. Madam Torio steps up in class but can certainly hold her own. She’s recorded two wins from three starts this preparation, leading all the way. Depending on how the track’s playing by this time of the day, leading could very well be the place you want to be. Her soft track record could be better (2:1-0-0) but she should cope with it. She has had nearly a month since her last start, so perhaps she’s had a few setbacks. Besides the above comments, her distance record (4:2-1-0) also suggests that she’ll be right in this! Sunnysilk is yet to race on a soft track but did record a win during a trial that was on a soft track, which suggestions that she should handle those conditions here. The form surrounding her races isn’t as strong as some of these other horses, but her careers statistics are impressive (6:1-2-2). Dropping back from 1100m to 1000m isn’t a concern at all, in fact it may suit her better if they choose to lead. She’s yet to win second up (1:0-0-0) but that could very well change here. Dark Assault comes into this race without a trial, so that also makes it hard to tell where he’s at fitness wise. His first up record also isn’t the best (2:0-0-1) so that doesn’t fill me with confidence. However, he has incredible strong form, finishing second to Gemma’s Son in the listed Perth Stakes and third in the group 2 Karrakatta. Watch out for him to improve next start over more distance, but if he can handle the 1000m and soft track he’ll run a good race. He rounds out a very competitive top four.
1 – Starfield Impact
5 – Madam Torio
4 – Sunnysilk
3 – Dark Assault

Race 5 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1400m – 2:28pm

Leading Girl is a horse to watch, not only this preparation but in the upcoming spring/summer feature races. Her turn of foot first up was extremely good and if she wasn’t so far back, she may have even won (instead of finishing second). With that turn of foot and the fact that she’s unbeaten second up (2:2-0-0) plus she’s won at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), this looks like her race to lose. The only thing that concerns me slightly is that she has yet to race on a soft track, but her ability should see her overcoming that. Lonsdale Lady actually beat Leading Girl in the trial which kickstarted both of their preparations, but unlike Leading Girl, we haven’t seen this mare since. The form surrounding her listed 1000 Guineas is very strong, though she then failed to fire in the listed Natasha. While the Guineas was over 1800m, 1400m looks to be right up her alley, especially if statistics are anything to go by (3:1-0-1). She’s yet to win first up (1:0-0-0) but that can change here, especially as she’s won on a soft track before (1:1-0-0). Put A Spell On You comes out of the same race as Leading Girl but only gets 0.5kg on her, which isn’t enough to make a huge difference in my opinion. However, she has drawn a barrier that is way better here and stepping up to 1400m should benefit as well. Once again, she only carries 52.5kg with Madi’s claim, which makes her the lightest horse in the race. She’s only raced on a soft track once, where she finished fifth, so it’s a bit hard to tell off just run whether she’ll like the conditions. She’s not without a chance. Regal Counsel makes the Leading Girl form look attractive, as he also comes out of that race, finishing fourth behind her second. He also only gets 0.5kg on her but at least he only has to carry the 58.5kg again with Chris’ claim which puts him back in the race. Standout statistics for me are his track/distance record (1:1-0-0) and soft track record (7:2-0-3). He’s finished off last preparation in a strong way and with him finishing fourth first up, he can certainly continue those consistent results.
3 – Leading Girl
4 – Lonsdale Lady
5 – Put A Spell On You
1 – Regal Counsel

Race 6 – Devil’s Lair Handicap – 1650m – 3:10pm

Sentimental Queen will be looking to make it back to back wins for Mr Peters. This mare probably isn’t as talented as Leading Girl, but her win first up was good. Second up she was disappointing, but looked to have just gotten too far back in the run, so put a line through that race. That race was on a soft track, so that does make me nervous here, as does the fact that she’s yet to win at Belmont (2:0-0-0) and she steps up to 1650m for the first time. I may be blinded by the cerise and white but hoping she can bounce back here. Aconite is a clear threat and can win this without surprising at all! She’s been racing really well behind Montelena and will be glad to see that she’s not in this race. She’s only improved with the step up in distance, with this track/distance looking to suit incredibly well (5:1-1-2). She’ll only have to carry 58kg due to Laqdar’s claim, which is a smart move by connections. With the good barrier and soft track record (11:2-2-2), she’ll definitely be in the finish. Aragain brings confidence into this race after winning two in a row. The form surrounding these wins certainly isn’t the strongest, but a win is a win. She’s arguably in career best form, plus all of her wins have been over this distance (4:3-0-0). Hopefully from the insider barrier, she won’t get too far back, as she seems to do her best work when running in the first few. Her soft track record is good (5:2-0-0) and she deserves a crack at this. Overthought has been so hit and miss this preparation, finishing third last, winning and then second last. The first time she seems to have gotten too far back, so I’ll forgive that run, but last start there wasn’t really any excuses besides running wide throughout. Half of her wins have come over this distance (4:2-0-0) and she’s won on a soft track before (3:2-0-0). She looks to be outclassed here though.
11 – Sentimental Queen
1 – Aconite
6 – Aragain
5 – Overthought

Race 7 – Amelia Park – Blue Spec Stakes – 1650m – 3:50pm

Massimo has been a bit of a punters worst nightmare alternating between finishing first and second at his last four starts. The two races where he did finish second were behind two very good cerise and white horses, so it’s not like he disgraced himself. He steps up 1650m for the first time so that brings up a few questions, as does the 60kg and wide barrier. However, he’s no stranger to this track (9:3-5-0) and loves a soft track (4:2-2-0), so fingers crossed the winning Massimo turns up. Lordhelpmerun races well when third up (4:1-1-1) and will now have fitness on his side. A soft track isn’t his favourite (5:0-2-0) but the track/distance combo certainly is (4:1-2-0). He looked to be just beaten by a better horse in Jeraft last start, though only gets 0.5kg him here. The barriers have been reserved here, which should enable Lordhelpmerun to settle in a nice position. He’ll be in the finish once again. Wrinkly is a horse you’d love to own. He doesn’t always win but he does try his hardest. Two starts ago, he beat Jeraft over this distance, while carrying 62kg, so I’m hoping that form holds up here. The conditions are actually almost exactly the same here, in terms of barrier, weight and the going so he’ll definitely handle the race. I always worry about the 62kg, but he proves me wrong a lot of the time. Track/distance record is great (2:1-1-0) so I think he’s worth a cheeky win bet at those odds. Jeraft has some pretty good form surrounding his races. His races three and two starts ago were probably some of the best of his career, with the win certainly surprising a few people, including me. He’s a horse that flies a bit under my radar, but I do question whether those two outstanding performances were just races where everything fell into place. His track/distance record is ok (6:1-1-0) and he’s drawn wide, but he can surprise once again. He rounds out a very even race.
3 – Massimo
4 – Lordhelpmerun
2 – Wrinkly
10 – Jeraft

Race 8 – Iron Jack Handicap – 1000m – 4:30pm

Money Matters will definitely appreciate the scratching of We’re Got Dreams, as she looked to be the main threat. He’s a horse with a tonne of ability, winning the listed Lex Piper in February. He should only improve as he covers more ground, so it’s interesting that connections have chosen to keep him at 1000m. He’s yet to win second up (2:0-0-1) but this can definitely change here with his track/distance record (3:1-1-0), good barrier and weight. Crystal Spirit is a bit of an outsider, but I think he can cause an upset. Yes, he was very disappointing last start, but he was carrying 60kg from a wide barrier. He drops back in distance which looks to suit, and he loves this track (5:3-0-1). His third up record is quite good too (3:1-2-0). The wide barrier may get the better of him again but he’s great value if that’s what you’re looking for. Guns Of Navarone has had two months off the scene and comes into this race without a trial. However, if you look back at his previous five races, which were spaced out quite a bit, he was racing very well. He isn’t punished in terms of weight at all here, which is surprising considering his results. His first up record is good (6:1-2-0) and as long as he’s fit with no issues, he could win at great odds. Jericho Missile looked to have a turn of foot two starts ago, but then didn’t bring that last start or maybe he got boxed in (without having watched the replay). He doesn’t seem to appreciate the soft goings (3:0-1-0), so hopefully the track isn’t too dug up by this time of the day. Dropping back to 1000m looks to be a good move and I’d just be looking for him to put in a solid run.
8 – Money Matters
9 – Crystal Spirit
5 – Guns Of Navarone
6 – Jericho Missile

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1200m – 5:10pm

This is an absolute nightmare race to end the day on and there’s no Pike in the last to save us. Lucky Linda Lulu was a winner last start, so I’m surprised to see how long her odds are. There are a lot of statistics that I like about this horse, including her track/distance record (3:1-1-1), soft track record (7:2-3-1) and second up record (6:1-2-2). Yes, she’s drawn the car park and this field looks to be more competitive, but I’m willing to take the risk. Sir Mambo keeps showing us glimpses of ability but then doesn’t bring that same ability at his next start. The biggest thing in his favour in by far his soft track record (5:2-3-0) and this really could be the winning difference. He only has to carry 60kg with Chloe’s claim, but his previous form suggests he should be able to handle that. His distance record is also good (9:2-2-0), so he could surprise and even win. Lil’ Red Bikini can run on, though wouldn’t want to get any further back than midfield, which was evident last start. Her win two starts ago was good as was the start before, where she recorded a second behind Dark Mission. The 55kg makes her very competitive in the race and from that barrier she should get the ideal position. Her soft track record certainly isn’t the best, but she should go well. Apollo finished sixth behind Lucky Linda Lulu and gets 2kg on as a result. His previous three runs before last start where he finished second in everyone were particularly good. He’s yet to win at Belmont (13:0-3-4) and he may be another victim to a wide barrier. His distance record is good (9:1-2-2) and in a race this even with the unknown of how the track will be holding up by this time, anything can happen.
4 – Lucky Linda Lulu
1 – Sir Mambo
14 – Lil’ Red Bikini
5 – Apollo


Best Bet

Race 5 – Leading Girl

Confidence rating

My previews just seem to be getting longer and longer! Whether that’s a good thing, I’ll guess we’ll find out. I think that all of my top tips should go close except for race 9 which is an extremely tough race to end on and one I would avoid betting in. Besides that race, I’m mostly concerned about races 1, 2, 4 and 6, with the scratching of We’ve Got Dreams improving my confidence in race 8.

Last Week’s Results

R1-boxed trifecta
R2-boxed first four
Winners in top 4 – 5/9
Top picks: 3rd, 1st, 3rd(no pay), 2nd, 1st, -, -, 1st, –
Best bet:-
Profit: -8.5

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