Belmont 22/05/2021

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 22 degrees, showers developing, heavy at times.

Race 1 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Handicap – 2200m – 12:02pm

1 – Marocchino
3 – Mackenzie Brooke
2 – Bella’s Idol
4 – Saucy Jack

Comment: Marocchino is looking for five wins in a row. He’s up in the weights but Pike, the distance and small field look to suit. Mackenzie Brooke just got too far back last start, so that was a forgive run. Literally no chance of that happening here, so her turn of foot may give her the winning each. Bella’s Idol won a trial leading into this race but is yet to win first up (7:0-1-2). I think it’s a big ask racing over 2200m first up, so he’ll take great improvement from this run. Saucy Jack is literally the only other horse left. Surprised five starts ago but hard to see that happening here.

Suggested bet: Marocchino – win

Race 2 – Vale Jimmy Gallagher Plate – 1000m – 12:42pm

1 – Flying Missile
3 – Bopping Blue
10 – Forever Dreaming
6 – Queen’s Gift

Comment: Flying Missile has the most experience and best form in this race (7:3-2-1). She isn’t penalised too much in the weights and likes this distance. She should run a good race. Bopping Blue has had just the one trial, which he won in a nice fashion. Pike is always a positive and he’ll only improve off this run. Forever Dreaming won two trials before having a spell and then has won another trial leading into this race. She looks to be a quality horse. The wide barrier is the only concern for me. Queen’s Gift is knocking on the door for a win (3:0-3-0). She narrowly missed out on the win two starts ago and if she can overcome the wide barrier, she has every chance of getting her maiden win here.

Suggested bet: Flying Missile, Bopping Blue, Forever Dreaming and Queen’s Gift – each way

Race 3 – Tabtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1600m – 1:22pm

3 – Born To Try
5 – Lord Lonsdale
4 – New Amsterdam
1 – Friar’s Fantasia

Comment: Born To Try seems to have really turned a corner at her past four starts. She’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0) and having Pike in the saddle plus her turn of foot makes her an attractive top pick. I just would have liked to have seen a slightly better second up record (3:1-0-0) to be a bit more confident. Lord Lonsdale is consistently in the top four. He’s versatile in where he can sit in his runs and the distance will suit (2:1-0-1). New Amsterdam has won two races in a row leading into this race. He’ll be spot on fitness wise being third up and has won at this track/distance (3:1-0-1). I’m just not completely convinced by his form lines. Friar’s Fantasia had excuses last start, so just put a line through that run. Prior to that she was racing well, though her distance record could be better (6:0-1-1). She only has to carry 58kg due to Laqdar’s claim, which puts her back in the race. Sneaky chance.

Suggested bet: Born To Try, Lord Lonsdale and New Amsterdam – each way

Race 4 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1600m – 2:02pm

10 – The Verdict
13 – Tri For Us
6 – Said No One Ever
7 – Sluice Box

Comment: The Verdict has won three races in a row leading into this race, though be it in a lower class. She’s unbeaten at this distance (2:2-0-0) and should easily find the front from barrier four and give them something to run down. Great value too! Tri For Us is yet to place outside of the top two (4:2-2-0). She has a good barrier and could end up sitting outside or behind The Verdict. Quality animal with a bright future. It’s not hard to see why she’s the favourite. Said No One Ever has bounced back to his good form this preparation. He’s coming off a win and likes this distance (2:1-1-0). Barrier 12 is just a bit concerning. Sluice Box has had excuses after excuses in the stewards’ report and probably would have gone closer last start, had he not missed the jump. He’s no stranger to this distance (10:2-3-3) and should run a good race.

Suggested bet: The Verdict and Tri For Us – each way

Race 5 – CTS Low Loaders Handicap – 1200m – 2:45pm

5 – Bright Diamond
3 – Universal Pleasure
1 – Puli
2 – Home In Five

Comment: Bright Diamond looked to have needed her first trial, having not raced since June, but then won her second trial. She’s unbeaten first up (1:1-0-0), has won at this track/distance (2:1-1-0) and has a good barrier. When Pike and Peters combine on a quality horse, it’s hard to ignore! Universal Pleasure is really unfortunate here as she runs into Bright Diamond. This mare is looking for her fifth win in a row, though hasn’t raced since March. Slight question mark over why that’s the case (because she hasn’t trialled either). However, she’s yet to place outside of the top three in her career (10:4-3-3), has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0), has a good barrier and only carries 56.5kg with Laqdar’s claim. Threat to my top tip. Puli performed really well last preparation, except for the last two runs where he was probably ready for a spell. He placed third first up without a trial, so should only improve off that run. He also loves this track/distance (3:2-1-0). Hard to fault. Home In Five perhaps didn’t handle the soft track first up, though there weren’t any excuses in the stewards’ report. He ended last preparation strongly and has won at this distance before (4:2-0-0). He has quite a few gear changes in this race, which could see him bounce back.

Suggested bet: Bright Diamond, Universal Pleasure and Puli – each way

Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1300m – 3:20pm

8 – Timely Outburst
6 – Allmamoney
1 – No Surrender
11 – Real Grace

Comment: Timely Outburst is unbeaten in her career (3:3-0-0). She steps up in distance and class, but she could win on pure ability. Allmamoney is also a classy horse, having never placed outside of the top two (5:2-3-0). She’s never officially raced at 1300m but is proven over 1200m and 1400m. Absolutely no reason why she can’t win here. No Surrender was really consistent last preparation. He had the one trial leading into this race, with the quick speed getting the better of him. He’s yet to win first up (2:0-0-0) but he has won with 60kg before so 60.5kg here isn’t too much of a concern. Real Grace was disappointing towards the end of last preparation, but perhaps wasn’t ready for that level. Her trials suggest she’s ready to bounce back here.

Suggested bet: Timely Outburst, Allmamoney, No Surrender and Real Grace – each way

Race 7 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1600m – 3:55pm

9 – Billy Ain’t Silly
6 – Staralign
5 – Creator
2 – Not To Be Mist

Comment: Billy Ain’t Silly was narrow in defeat last start. He races beyond 1500m for the first time and I do wonder whether he’s more a 1400m horse. However, he’s got the ability to win this. Staralign proved that his Kalgoorlie form could match it in the city, winning at Ascot last start. I would say he’s come back better this preparation but I just a small question mark over his track record (4:0-1-0). Creator had a bit of a hiccup last start which could be put down to the soft track. Before that he was racing well over 1200m and 1400m, so he can bounce back here. Not To Be Mist was his own worst enemy last start, laying inwards in the straight. He did win the start before that though and has placed at this track/distance before (2:0-0-1).

Suggested bet: Billy Ain’t Silly – each way

Race 8 – Skyracing.Tv-Provincial Championship Series Final – 1400m – 4:25pm

10 – Loki
6 – Kendel’s Mee Dad
1 – Sir Mambo
3 – Zackariah Beau

Comment: Loki has been racing well in the country. He steps up to 1400m here for the first time but is great value. Kendal’s Mee Dad finished off last preparation strongly, also with Albany form. He comes into this race without a trial but does have a good first up record (6:2-0-1) and can run on from midfield. Sir Mambo probably has some of the best form, finishing third at Ascot two starts ago. He only has to carry 58.5kg thanks to Kristy’s claim which certainly puts him back in the race. The wide barrier is a concern though. Zachariah Beau beat Sir Mambo last start and seems to have improved this preparation. Again, he might fall victim to the wide barrier though.

Suggested bet: Avoid! Loki, Kendel’s Mee Dad, Sir Mambo and Zackariah Beau – each way

Race 9 – Heineken 3 Handicap – 1300m – 4:55pm

11 – Angelic Miss
15 – Beau Zoom
14 – Albukhturi
4 – Aberdeen Queen

Comment: Angelic Miss showed a really good turn of foot last start. She does rise 2kg off that win and surprisingly she’s never raced at this distance or Belmont before. The wide barrier is a concern but ability should see her go close. Beau Zoom has been racing consistently in a mixed level of classes. He’ll get his ideal run from barrier 1 and has placed at this track/distance before (3:0-2-1). He also gets 2kg on Angelic Miss, finishing second to her last start, so we could potentially see him turn the tables. Albukhturi is significantly up in class and as a result drops 7kg off last start’s second. Last start was his first run in WA so he should only improve off that. Great value! Aberdeen Queen appreciated the drop in class last start, coming out and winning. I think she’s better suited to 1300m compared to the 1600/1800m distances we saw her over last preparation. She may just fall victim to the wide barrier.

Suggested bet: Angelic Miss, Beau Zoom, Albukhturi and Aberdeen Queen –- each way

Best Bet

Race 7 – Billy Ain’t Silly

Confidence rating

My confidence definitely decreases as the day goes on. Races 8 and 9 were absolute nightmares to tip and the rain by that time of the day isn’t going to help. I thought The Verdict was good value for my best bet, but Billy Ain’t Silly was a bit safer. I think with a fresh track, every horse is going to get its chance, which will make for an interesting day!

Last Week’s Results

R2-boxed first 4
R5-quinella
Winners in top 4- 7/9
Top picks: 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, -,-, 2nd, –
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: -4.3 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)