Belmont 21/09/2019

Conditions

Rail – 7m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 20 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – Free Entry to Belmont Park Maiden – 1300m – 12:08pm

Secait is third up after having quite a bit of time off and she should appreciate the step up in distance. Prized Nemesis comes out of the same race as Dragonflies and he does seem to possess some turn of foot. Dragonflies had a good run last start. Sea Maher’s trial and first up run were nice. He should improve from there, despite being up in class.
6 – Secait
1 – Prized Nemesis
2 – Dragonflies
5 – Sea Maher

Race 2 – Engine Room Espresso Plate – 1000m – 12:43pm

For such a small field there are some very smart horses, with many winning opportunities (you could make a case for every horse) and lots of speed in the race. I wouldn’t be betting in this race. Miss West Coast’s trial was very nice and she’s never placed outside the top 3 in all starts (6:2-1-3), with Jade McNaught in the saddle and Miss West Coast’s class, it could be a winning combination. Drinkwhatyoulike won impressively last start with a nice trial coming into that race. She also did run second to Miss West Coast last preparation. She’s my biggest worry of the day. Joyrize is very consistent (second in all trials and races). She trialled nicely and does have the ability to cause an upset here, having run second to Mia Dolce last preparation. You can’t knock Mia Dolce’s two wins last start and she really could win here.
2 – Miss West Coast
5 – Drinkwhatyoulike
6 – Joyrize
1 – Mia Dolce

Race 3 – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1600m – 1:19pm

Black Ducati seems to be the horse with the most ability here, placing in the top 2 at all starts (3:2-1-0). Blue Horse is down in class and does have a good turn of foot. Fair Glory does seem to have a good turn of foot but has never raced on a good track, so there is an unknown element there. Beat the Bell actual beat Black Ducati last start but her track and distance records aren’t as good.
5 – Black Ducati
8 – Blue Horse
6 – Fair Glory
3 – Beat the Bell

Race 4 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1600m – 1:59pm

Regal Counsel has won 4 in a row and he can definitely add to that here. Jedaffair ran second to Regal Counsel last start. She probably needed that run and will appreciate the step up in distance while also getting a 2kg swing on Regal Counsel. Astronomite has placed second in his past 2 starts and would hopefully improve here. Defiantly is hit and miss horse but when she’s on she’s very good.
2 – Regal Counsel
6 – Jedaffair
3 – Astronomite
7 – Defiantly

Race 5 – Glenn Money 80th Birthday Handicap – 1400m – 2:39pm

Velago is a half-brother to my boy, The Velvet King, and does seem to have a touch of his ability. He had a nice run last start, with the 60kg not seeming like a problem. Next Stop the Moon is performing consistently. He should find the front and could win, however, he is on the one week back up. ZeroDemerits has won his previous two starts. Express Flirt is going ok but is down in class.
1 – Velago
5 – Next Stop the Moon
8 – Zero Demerits
3 – Express Flirt

Race 6 – Brian Wheeler 90th Birthday Handicap – 2000m – 3:19pm

Too Close the Sun was so close yet so far last start. He’s got a wider barrier to content with this start but I think he’ll be able to overcome it, however, he is on the one week backup. Beaucount has been racing well but could find 2000m too long if he’s at the front. Sugar Cain had a nice run last start and can handle the distance. If I picked horses based just on numbers I’d be betting on him (horse 6 race 6). Proxy‘s last two runs have been good, and you could get a bit of value for this horse. He hasn’t performed well at this class though but those races were at 1600m.
4 – Too Close the Sun
3 – Beaucount
6 – Sugar Cain
14 – Proxy

Race 7 – D’Orsogna Handicap – 1000m – 3:55pm

Some Sort won last start and has been racing very consistently. Cryptic Love has been racing well behind some very good horses. Why Choose Her won her past two starts but would have definitely liked a softer track. The weight doesn’t bother Night Voyage so he could run a cheeky race.
11 – Some Sort
8 – Cryptic Love
7 – Why Choose Her
1 – Night Voyage

Race 8 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 4:25pm

Cup Night showed he has ability last preparation and he should be fitter second up here. Spillinova has had nice runs so far this preparation and should also be fitter third up, while the wide barrier shouldn’t bother him either. In Love With Paris has been racing well including a second to Regal Counsel last start. Dawn Armada will need to settle close to the front if he’s going to win.
4 – Cup Night
6 – Spillinova
3 – In Love With Paris
10 – Dawn Armada

Race 9 – Prive Fashion Platform Handicap – 1200m – 5:00pm

Little Fish was unlucky last start and is a horse with lots of ability. He also gets a weight swing on Dutch Spy too. Dutch Spy could easily win again but I feel like Little Fish has slightly more class about him. Forceful has a very nice trial against Angelic Ruler who is set for a Melbourne campaign. I know quite a few other tipsters have him on top, but his first up and good track record deters me a bit. Floyd has faced some very good horses in the past.
3 – Little Fish
2 – Dutch Spy
5 – Forceful
4 – Floyd

Best Bet

Race 4 – Regal Counsel Multi – Black Ducati into Regal Counsel into Velago (place) into Little Fish (place)

Confidence rating

Race 2 is a betting nightmare plus Drinkwhatyoulike and Forceful are a concern, but other than that I feel pretty good. I probably have just shot myself in the foot saying that, but I’m looking forward to some good races!