Belmont 21/08/2021

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Soft 7
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, showers

Race 1 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Plate – 1200m – 11:52pm

1 – Trix Of The Trade
2 – The Front Bar
3 – He’s A Sizzler
5 – State Of Power

Comment: Trix Of The Trade is two for two in his career. Both of these runs were on a heavy track, so he should handle conditions here. Those runs were also at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). He’s up in class but should go well. The Front Bar is looking to make it three wins in a row. She’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and has won on a soft track (3:2-0-0). She’s very versatile on where she can sit in the run and Pike riding is also a positive. There’s no reason why she can’t win here. He’s A Sizzler is knocking on the door for a win. He drops down in distance, but he has shown a good turn of foot over 1000m and 1400m. I may be biased, but his form looks like a good one to follow (he placed second behind Goldfrapp) and he has placed on a soft track (2:0-2-0). He should go well. State Of Power has finished third and fourth behind The Front Bar at her past two starts. She sat back two starts ago and then led last start, so I’ll be interested to see where she sits in the runs from barrier 3. Her soft track record could be better (3:0-0-1), but she’s never finished that far off the winner. I suspect that will be the case here. This is a quality field and one to watch going forward form wise.

Suggested bet: Trix Of The Trade, The Front Bar, He’s A Sizzler and State Of Power – each way

Race 2 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1000m – 12:32pm

1 – Wilchino
2 – Bedouin Belle
7 – Come Magic
6 – Dark City

Comment: Wilchino is on fire this preparation. She’s looking to make it three wins in a row here and is unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). From barrier 8, she may have to use some energy early on to get to the front, but she has won on a soft track before (3:1-0-1). The 60kg is the only concern for me. Bedouin Belle narrowly tasted defeat last start. She seems to be hitting her peak here and she only has to carry 56kg due to Laqdar’s claim, which makes her competitive. She’s placed at this track/distance (6:0-2-2) and on a soft track (9:0-3-3). She should place but may find my top tip too good. City Circle finished second to Wilchino last start and gets 1.5kg on her here. She’s probably racing in career best form but her soft track is a concern (12:0-2-0). Come Magic hasn’t been seen at the races since April 2020. She’s just had the one trial leading into this race, but it was a good run. Pike jumps on board but she should take good fitness from this run.

Suggested bet: Wilchino – each way, Bedouin Belle – place

Race 3 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 1:12pm

2 – I’m Pretty
9 – Devoted Star
7 – Irritable Rodnee
1 – Temptacion

Comment: I’m Pretty was a bit disappointing last start, but seems to have bounced back at trials. Pike jumps off, but with Victoria riding, she only has to carry 58kg, which puts her back in the race. She’s won at this track/distance (4:3-0-0) and on a soft track (7:1-2-1). She might prefer a good track, but she should run a good race. Devoted Star can be a bit hit and miss, but her last two starts have been good. She does like to run on from the back, so hopefully, she doesn’t get stuck on the rail from barrier 1. She may be more a 1000-1200m horse, but she has placed at this track/distance (2:0-0-1). Irritable Rodnee was disappointing last start, and this could be put down due to the heavy 10 track. Hopefully, it doesn’t get that heavy here. From barrier 3 he should easily find the front and he has placed at this track/distance (3:0-2-0). He could surprise. Temptacion has trialed nicely leading into this race. She has amazing career statistics (8:3-1-3), but sometimes needs the first up run to get going (2:0-0-1). She’s placed at this distance (1:0-0-1) and on a soft track (1:0-0-1), but has never raced at Belmont. She’ll definitely be looking for further and the 61.5kg is a big ask, but class can pull her through.

Suggested bet: I’m Pretty, Devoted Star, Irritable Rodnee and Temptacion – each way

Race 4 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 2200m – 1:52pm

2 – Sluice Box
3 – Sowar
4 – Aragain
1 – Allez Allez

Comment: Sluice Box showed a really good turn of foot last start on a soft track. He’s up in distance but has been handling 2000-2100m. Hopefully, he still has that turn of foot, even though he has to carry 3.5kg more here. From the wide barrier, it looks like he’ll get back. At least he has a good soft track record (8:1-3-2). Sowar is in a similar boat to Sluice Box in terms of distances he’s raced over. He also finished second to Sluice Box last start and gets 3kg on him here. Combined with his turn of foot too, the tables could very well turn. From barrier 1 and due to his racing pattern, he’s likely to get back in the field, but at least he’s won on a soft track (8:1-3-2). Aragain got stuck in traffic last start, where she finished seventh behind Sluice Box. She is previously proven over these longer distances though. She’s no stranger to a soft track (11:2-2-1) and this should help her chances. Look for her to bounce back here. Allez Allez brings slightly different form lines to this race. He’s placed in the four at all of his starts this preparation but does dramatically step up in distance here. He has previously won carrying 59.5kg, so 60kg shouldn’t be too bad for him, though it may take its toll over 2200m. With his soft track record (5:3-1-1), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him win.

Suggested bet: Sluice Box, Sowar, Aragain and Allez Allez – each way

Race 5 – Iron Jack Handicap – 1600m – 2:28pm

9 – Miss Zedel
4 – Al Mahalo
2 – Nelson’s Flight
8 – What About Moi

Comment: Miss Zedel has had a few hiccups this preparation but has been racing well overall. She’s has a great distance record (4:2-2-0) but has never been tested over this distance at this track. She’s also previously won on a soft track (4:2-1-0). My only concern is barrier 11. Al Mahalo is up in class but has been racing well this preparation. He’s proven on a soft track (9:1-3-1) and placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-1). Class may be his undoing, but he deserves a crack at this. Nelson’s Flight had his fair share of excuses last start, so I would just put a line through that run. All of the conditions look to suit him here and Pike jumps on board. The 60kg looks to be a big ask, but he did place second with 60kg two starts ago. The wide barrier would also normally cause a problem, but this should enable him to get to the front easily. He’ll need to bring his best here, but he’s not without his chances. What About Moi just loves to get back in his runs and that probably makes things a little bit difficult for him. Despite drawing barrier 2, I do think he’ll get back again, so keep an eye on how the track is playing by this time of day. He only has to carry 54kg with Laqdar’s claim, but his soft track record isn’t the best (3:0-0-1). He may just find one better and connections might be thinking the same, as he has been nominated for a race on Wednesday.

Suggested bet: Miss Zedel, Al Mahalo and Nelson’s Flight – each way

Race 6 – Amelia Park – Blue Spec Stakes – 1600m – 3:10pm

5 – Kelly’s Callisto
4 – True Attraction
3 – Montelena
8 – Lonsdale Lady

Comment: Kelly’s Callisto lead all the way to win last start. Clint jumps back on board, but that’s probably because they don’t need a claiming apprentice this start. From barrier 5, he should easily get to the front and all the conditions look to suit. He’s up in class but he’ll give them something to run down. True Attraction is like a yoyo with his distances at the moment. 1600m at Belmont looks to suit him though (5:2-2-0). He was disappointing last start, especially as we know that he has a turn of foot and that he can handle a soft track (6:3-1-0). Everything points to him bouncing back here. Montelena was always going to be looking for further off last start. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0), which is a huge positive here. Plus, she’s also won on a soft track (8:3-1-1). She does have to carry a bit of weight, but she should be hitting her stride right about now. Lonsdale Lady is coming off a nice win, with her and Zaratite putting a good gap on the rest of the field. That form looks like good form to follow here and she’s unbeaten on a soft track (2:2-0-0). With the small field, it shouldn’t matter if she gets too far back from barrier 8 and the low weight should help. She rounds out an even race.

Suggested bet: Kelly’s Callisto, True Attraction, Montelena and Lonsdale Lady – each way

Race 7 – Cool Ridge Handicap – 1200m – 3:50pm

6 – Miss Vasari
1 – Zephyr Queen
9 – Rocky Path
5 – Dunbar

Comment: Miss Vasari placed outside of the top three for the first time last start (she finished fourth) and that could be put down to her getting back in the run or not handling the heavy 10 track. She has drawn barrier 8 here, so I do worry that she’ll get back again. She’s also yet to race on a soft track, so there is the question mark on whether she’ll handle the conditions. At least she’s won at this track/distance before (2:1-0-0). Zephyr Queen is just ultra-consistent. With Keshaw’s claim, she only has to carry 58.5kg, which puts her back in the race. From barrier 1, she should easily get to the front too, which is where she does her best work. Her track/distance is in her favour (3:2-0-1) and she’s won on a soft track (13:3-0-5). If it’s a leader bias day, she’s in with a real chance. Rocky Path looked to have got stuck in traffic last start, so he does have a few excuses there. He does get back in his runs, but we saw two starts ago that he does have a good turn of foot on a soft track. He’s won at this track/distance (6:2-0-1) and on a soft track (10:2-2-0). Whether he’s coming to the end of his preparation, we’re about to find out. Either way, he’s great value! Dunbar got blocked for 200m last start, so perhaps he would have finished closer otherwise. His track/distance record doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence (2:0-0-0), but he’s always in the finish on a soft track (4:1-0-1). I’m surprised to see him that short, but he could surprise.

Suggested bet: Miss Vasari, Zephyr Queen, Rocky Path and Dunbar – each way

Race 8 – Peninsula Dining Room Handicap – 1000m – 4:25pm

6 – Iseered Iseered
2 – Weaponson
4 – Express Time
7 – All Day Session

Comment: Iseered Iseered is coming into this race without a trial, but he does go well fresh (2:1-1-0). He’s also placed at this distance before (2:0-2-0) though has never raced at Belmont. He has won on a soft track (2:1-0-0). From barrier 8, he’ll have to use a bit of energy to get to the front early, but otherwise, he should run a good race. Weaponson has had two quiet trials leading into this race. He goes well first up (4:1-1-1) and has good form surrounding his races last preparation. He’s placed at this track/distance (5:0-4-0) and on a soft track (5:0-3-0). He’ll improve off this run. Express Time has been racing well this preparation. The thing I like most about her is her soft track record (6:2-0-3) and her track/distance record (7:2-1-1). She’ll be giving them something to run down. All Day Session has really improved at his last two runs. Whether that can be put down to the heavy track, we’ll find out here. While he would have preferred a heavy track, he has won on a soft track (4:2-0-0) and at this track/distance (5:2-1-0). He rounds out a very even race!

Suggested bet: Iseered Iseered, Weaponson, Express Time and All Day Session – each way

Race 9 – Horsepower – A Night At The Races Handicap – 1400m – 5:00pm

3 – Notorious One
9 – Vital Blast
6 – La Farola
5 – Downforce

Comment: Notorious One is on fire this preparation and maybe that’s because of the soft tracks. He’s shown a great turn of foot at all three runs and seeing as there isn’t a lot of speed in the race, this could prove to be lethal here. Belmont is definitely his favourite track and he’s won at this track/distance (2:1-0-1) and on a soft track (4:2-0-1). There’s no reason for him to run a bad race. Vital Blast finished second to Notorious One last start and gets 1kg on him here. This horse probably had his ideal run during that start though, so I don’t think the weight alone is enough to turn the tables. Barrier 10 would normally be a concern, but last start he did jump from barrier 9. He’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and has won on a soft track (8:1-2-1). Even at $10, I wouldn’t rule him out. La Farola improved with each trial which was good to see. She has won first up before (3:1-1-0) and is actually unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0). She’s placed at Belmont before too (2:0-1-0) but has never raced on a wet track, so there are just a few questions marks over whether she’ll handle the conditions. Downforce was scratched last week in favour of this race. Perhaps it took him a touch longer to recover from the heavy track. Connections will be hoping it doesn’t rain too much, as he’s yet to place on a soft track (2:0-0-0). He’s actually never placed at this track/distance either (1:0-0-0) but has won second up before (4:1-0-1). I just think he has a cheeky chance.

Suggested bet: Notorious One, Vital Blast, La Farola and Downforce – each way

Best Bet

Race 2 – Wilchino

Quaddie

R6: 3, 4, 5, 8
R7: 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9
R8: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7
R9: 3, 5, 6, 9

Confidence rating

My confidence has its ups and downs this week. I felt like the tips flowed when I was writing them but there are some really even races. I’m mostly concerned about races 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 8. It’s going to be good seeing Weaponson back at the races and he is a consistent horse in what is an even field.

Last Week’s Results

R1-trifecta
R3-boxed first 4
Winners in top 4: 8/9
Top picks: 1st, 1st, 2nd, -, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, –
Best bet: –
Profit: -0.8 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)