Belmont 20/07/2019

Conditions

Rail – 7m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 17, very high chance of showers, windy

Race 1 – Go Racing for Free Before the Footy Plate – 1300m – 12:43pm

Cryptic Wonder had an impressive win last start and there’s no reason he can’t win again. I liked how he pricked his ears on the line last start too. No Apology has come back bigger and better this preparation and is no stranger to a soft and heavy track. He also has a 2kg swing on Cryptic Wonder. Kelvin is ticking along very nicely this preparation and should be right up there. Rocky Path has placed inside top 4 in all her 5 starts. She’s previously faced good competition in Mia Dolce and Kelvin.
3 – Cryptic Wonder
2 – No Apology
1 – Kelvin
7 – Rocky Path

Race 2 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1200m – 1:23pm

Battle Storm is 5 wins for 5 starts so you definitely can’t ignore him here. He is up in class but that shouldn’t be a problem. Abdicator has trialled very well. His first up record is ok (5:1-3-0) and he’s placed on all soft track starts too (5:2-2-1). If anyone is going to give Battle Storm a run for his money it’s Abdicator. Belter was in listed company last start, so he’s down in grade while having also trialled behind Nikitas who has been doing well. His first up record is good (4:1-3-0). Multiverse should only improve with each run, plus all wins have come at this distance and his third up record is good (3:1-1-0).
4 – Battle Storm
2 – Abdicator
1 – Belter
5 – Multiverse

Race 3 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1000m – 2:03pm

Danny George had a great turn of foot last start. Despite beating Night Voyage and Don’t Fuss last start, he gets a 1kg swing here on them. Night Voyage has the positive of Pike jumping on board and he’s only unplaced once on a soft track (9:3-2-3). Don’t Fuss is a very consistent horse and it’s going to be fun seeing my top 3 picks battle it out again (hopefully placing in the same order). Illustrious Tycoon was a good horse 12 months ago, but I’ll have to see how he goes here.
7 – Danny George
2 – Night Voyage
3 – Don’t Fuss
8 – Illustrious Tycoon

Race 4 – Belmont Classic – 2200m – 2:39pm

Mystery Miss has the class and form, so she should be winning here. She’s also placed on all soft track starts (4:2-0-2). Rivalry Galore was second to True Attraction last start. He has a good soft track record (3:0-2-1), but still being a maiden horse is a concern. Cockatiel goes ok. She was second to Mystery Miss last start, but I can’t see her turning the tables here. Pagen Image comes from the Aquanita Stakes too where he came. His track record is good (8:2-1-2) as well as his performances on a soft track (6:1-1-1), but he’s never raced at this distance before.
4 – Mystery Miss
3 – Rivalry Galore
5 – Cockatiel
1 – Pagen Image

Race 5 – Quayclean Handicap – 2000m – 3:15pm

Zaratite possesses a very good turn of foot. He’s placed in the top 4 in all of his starts, with a good soft track record as well (2:1-1-0). Sugar Cain is no stranger to this distance this preparation. She has also shown a great turn of foot. Celtic Court has a massive step up in distance which is a concern, however, he’s in fine form with all places in his career has come in his last 4 starts (6:2-1-1). Media Baron is always there but hasn’t quite made it yet. He ran second to Sugar Cain last start and has a 0.5kg swing on her here.
13 – Zaratite
12 – Sugar Cain
7 – Celtic Court
2 – Media Baron

Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 3:50pm

I found this race very hard to tip, but Moet De Vega goes on top. He’s has trialled very well, with his first up record being good (2:1-1-0) and has won on a soft track before (1:1-0-0). Mankind is two for two on a soft track and was going well before last start. Father Knick has form behind Festival Miss and Spirit and Fire, who are both horses I respect. Citichant is up in grade but has been performing quite well.
7 – Moet De Vega
6 – Mankind
2 – Father Knick
9 – Citichant

Race 7 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 4:25pm

Neurological ran a very strong race last start. His second up record is ok (4:1-1-0) and Pike jumps back on board. Taxagano was third behind some very good horses last start and should only improve on that. He’s also won three times at this distance (6:3-0-0) and his second up record is ok (5:1-0-1). Miracle Man had a good run last start with a good record at this track (6:2-1-1) and on a soft track (4:1-0-1), while his second up record is ok (3:1-0-0). He’s A Parker was good at the country tracks, but can he bring that to the city? He beat Come Play with Me two starts ago who came out and won last Saturday. The big weight, no trial and being down in distance is a concern.
4 – Neurological
7 – Taxagano
6 – Miracle Man
1 – He’s A Parker

Race 8 – Back Pike Drink What You Like Handicap – 1400m – 5:00pm

Spirit and Fire got a win on the board last start and should go well again here. He’s also two for two at this track. Snowchino is performing well and all wins have come from a soft track (6:3-1-1). Nelson’s Flight had nice two runs back from a spell and his soft track record is good (3:2-0-1). Upward Others has big step down in distance but is performing consistently. He has also shown a good turn of foot over the longer distances. Major concerns are that he’s never won at this distance (3 starts), track (7 starts) or first up (3 starts).
1 – Spirit and Fire
15 – Snowchino
6 – Nelson’s Flight
10 – Upward Others

Best Bet

Race 5 – Zaratite (Battle Storm and Mystery Miss are too short for my liking)

Multi Bet

Battle Storm into Mystery Miss into Zaratite

Confidence rating

It starts off quite strong, but it gets significantly worse as the day goes on. I really struggled tipping race 6 and 7.