Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 20/06/2020

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 20 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1400m – 11:53pm

Western Rhythm comes out of the Seminole Brave race which looks like good form to follow. She probably would have won had she not missed the start, finishing second by 0.1L. She also ran the fastest 600m, so fingers crossed with that ability she gets a bit more luck this time. Jono has been improving with each run this preparation, which is good to see. He seems to be able to run, though might not possess that sharp turn of foot. He should only improve over more distance and with race day experience. Hoolahops doesn’t have great career statistics (6:0-1-0), but looks to be in for a good preparation, winning one trial and placing second leading into this race. The form surrounding her races doesn’t look to be the best but she did show a nice turn of foot last start. Redwood Ransom has been placing consistently in the country. He only had a two month break after being in work for seven months which I find to be quite a long time. He’s placed third at Kalgoorlie leading into this race but I think he’ll be outclassed by my top tip.
9 – Western Rhythm
3 – Jono
8 – Hoolahoops
1 – Redwood Ransom

Race 2 – Amelia Park Plate – 1300m – 12:32pm

Reign Of Fire looks to be a very talented colt, winning by a considerable margin at his first start, coming from the rear of the field. This race does look to be a little tricker plus he’s drawn wider and carries 1kg more than last start. His ability should see him winning this though. Seven Kingdoms was slightly disappointing after coming off a nice trial. However, he did run the second fastest 600m in that race and should only improve with one race under his belt. The step up in distance should also benefit him. One to watch going forward. Kallaroo got held up in the straight last start and still managed to finish second. He does like to sit near the rear of the field, which from that barrier looks to be the case again here. My top two picks look to be hard to beat, but if Chris can keep this guy out of trouble he’ll run a good race. Miss Ivy League finished fourth behind Reign Of Fire last start. Despite getting 2kg on him here, I’m not sure that she can turn the tables. One thing going in her favour is that her only win has come on a soft track. Given the weather forecast though, I expect the track to dry out, which is the opposite of what she would have liked. Good form surrounding her races, but I’d be waiting to see her back on a soft track.
1 – Reign Of Fire
7 – Seven Kingdoms
5 – Kallaroo
2 – Miss Ivy League

Race 3 – Perth Racing At Home Handicap – 1400m – 1:12pm

Showmanship has won two races this preparation after having 12 months off. He’s drawn well again, and I love who he can run on or take up a forward position. Looks hard to beat. Fred Dag is not without his own fair share of ability. He’s been facing some very good horses this preparation, though I wouldn’t say he’s been at his best. This time last year he was flying, so maybe he’s a Belmont horse. Hoping to see him bounce back here. Luke’s Gold is a bit of a hit and miss horse, though he wins at the most surprising times. 1400m looks to be his ideal distance, so I’m glad to see him stepping up from 1200m. He’s drawn nicely and gets in well in the weights. If he brings that turn of foot, he showed us five starts ago than he can definitely surprise again here. Dark Prospect was no match for Showmanship last start, but he did run a very good race, coming from last to finish second. He meets him evenly in the weights, though has drawn better. If he doesn’t get stuck in traffic, I think he’s a cheeky place bet.
6 – Showmanship
3 – Fred Dag
4 – Luke’s Gold
7 – Dark Prospect

Race 4 – WAROA – Belmont Guineas – 1600m – 1:48pm

Kay Cee made my heart skip a beat last start, where it looked like Laverrod was going to win. Given the conditions of the race, she actually gets 2.5kg on him, despite beating him. We know she’ll only improve over more ground and if the track is still soft by now that won’t be an issue. Her race to lose. Laverrod is just a fantastic horse, having never finished outside of the top three in his career (11:4-5-2). He would be a clear on top horse if it wasn’t for Kay Cee and the fact that he hasn’t raced beyond 1400m before. Other than that, there’s really no reason why he can’t win. Watch for my top two picks to be battling it out down the straight. Cambist comes out of the feature autumn races where she did exceptionally well. She’s had just under two months off with no trial leading into this race, so it’s hard to tell when she’s at fitness wise. You’d think 1600m would be a touch short too, but she did win her maiden race over 1200m. With her amazing turn of foot, I think she adds an interesting element to what would be a Kay Cee vs Laverrod race. Karinjin Aurora finished third behind Kay Cee and Laverrod. This was a big jump in grade for her, so she did well to hold her own. She’s drawn wide here but would have benefited from the city experience last start. Combined with Pike in the saddle, she should go close again.  
5 – Kay Cee
1 – Laverrod
6 – Cambist
7 – Karinjin Aurora

Race 5 – The Turf Club Handicap – 1200m – 2:28pm

Bright Diamond is a winner of two in a row, with last start being extra impressive. She seems to be another future champion for Mr Peters. She’s drawn well here and beat She’s Enchanted at her first start but still gets 1kg on her here. Winning chance. She’s Enchanted is on the one-week backup, after winning nicely last weekend. She seems to have her own fair share of ability but may be facing one better in Bright Diamond. However, she is versatile on where she can sit in running and she may appreciate the 1200m even more than 1000m. She can win without causing a massive upset. La Vina is a horse that connections have a high opinion of, jumping her from a maiden win to a listed race, where she finished fourth. That was behind Angelic Ruler (RIP) and a good form race to follow. She then had about six weeks off before finishing third over 1000m. She’s definitely a horse that will appreciate stepping up to 1200m. Mood Swings is yet to finish outside the top three in his career (3:1-1-1). The race he did win didn’t really have any superstars come out of it yet, but his other two races have good form. I think the fillies might have a greater advantage over him in terms of ability, but he should go well.
7 – Bright Diamond
5 – She’s Enchanted
8 – La Vina
6 – Mood Swings

Race 6 – All Flags Signs & Banner Handicap – 1200m – 3:05pm

Pearls And Prawns only bad runs have come in her two listed races, where she was perhaps just simply outclassed. Her trials leading into this race were good and she’s unbeaten first up (2:2-0-0). The biggest tick in my books is that Pike has chosen her over Son Of A God. Son Of A God had a few excuses last start where he tasted defeat for only the second time in his career (6:4-0-0). There’s a worry that he might upset himself again before the race, though his second up record is faultless (1:1-0-0) as is his soft track record (2:2-0-0), though the track has now been upgraded to a good 4. With Chloe’s claim, he only has to carry 59kg, but he’s won with 60kg before so this shouldn’t be a problem. Wanna Be Good loves to get back in his runs, but luckily has the turn of foot so this isn’t too much of a problem. Obviously, there’s always the chance he’ll get stuck in traffic but 1200m should give him enough time to get out. He’s drawn well so he could take a more forward position if he wanted, but don’t panic if he doesn’t. Sir Mambo did lose a bit of momentum at the 800m mark last start and combined with his rear position in the run, it may be why he didn’t place as well. Prior to that he had been racing well, including winning three starts ago. He’s drawn wide, so may get back again or use energy early on to get to the front. At least he only has to carry 58.5kg with Kristy’s claim.
3 – Pearls And Prawns
2 – Son Of A God
6 – Wanna Be Good
1 – Sir Mambo

Race 7 – Mumm Champagne Handicap – 1600m – 3:40pm

King Blitz looks to have found a very suitable race here after having two months off, with no clear threats. He’s a winner of two in a row, so brings confidence from that. I’m surprised that connections have opted to put an apprentice in Laqdar on board, but it does mean that he only has to carry 53kg. The wide barrier may prove to be a slight speed bump, but he should go well. Wrinkly has faced some good horses this preparation and won a listed race in March. This win would have bumped up his rating points, which makes it hard to find suitable races, hence why he carries 62kg here. I expect him to be leading, which shouldn’t be too hard to get with the inside barrier, as long as he jumps well. Question mark on whether leading and the weight will take its toll though. Touch Of Silver may appreciate stepping back to 1600m, while getting Pike in the saddle is also a huge positive. There’s nothing really to complain about his runs, he looked to be simply outclassed. This looks to be an easier race, so look for him to bounce back. Son Of Bacchus was a touch disappointing last start, especially as he was coming off a win. There was nothing in the stewards’ report, so not sure exactly what happen. Before that he had been racing well over this distance. With a good barrier and weight, he can return to his placing ways.
6 – King Blitz
1 – Wrinkly
4 – Touch Of Silver
12 – Son Of Bacchus

Race 8 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1600m – 4:10pm

Western Pride doesn’t know what it’s like to lose, winning all four of her starts. This might be a slightly tougher race, but as I say, all good horses must make their way through the grades. She doesn’t have an amazing turn of foot, which is a trademark of Mr Peters’ great horses, but from that barrier Pike should be able to put her in a nice position. Gates Of Babylon went down fighting with Festival Miss last start, beating the horse that finished third by nearly four lengths. This horse just seems to run for Mitchell, which is good when he has to carry that sort of weight. He did win over 1200m with 60.5kg thee starts ago, but is that extra 400m going to be too much? Guess we’ll find out! Tradensia has an absolutely terrible barrier and probably isn’t an obvious top three horse. However, she has good career statistics (7:3-1-1) and at those two finishes outside the top three she finished fourth. With the low weight and wide barrier, I can see her going forward and either applying pressure to Gates Of Babylon for the lead or just sitting outside him. She may be slightly outclassed but deserves a crack at this. Fuhrer comes off a nice win at Northam over this distance. He probably wasn’t ready for the listed races in the early autumn but has bounced back well this preparation. Kyra takes over from Mitchell due to weigh I’m guessing, but she’s riding very well at the moment. Again, the wide barrier could be an issue but if he gets a good position in the race, he should be fine.
8 – Western Pride
1 – Gates Of Babylon
16 – Tradensia
10 – Fuhrer

Race 9 – Byron Bay Premium Lager Handicap – 1000m – 4:45pm

We’ve Got Dreams has continued her winning ways this preparation. Hopefully, the track as well and truly dried out by now as that would suit her better, though she has won a trial on a soft track this preparation. The wide barrier could get in her way, but she has the ability to overcome this. Massimo is the biggest threat I’ve had all day. He’s an ultra-consistent horse that is always in the finish. He’s also finished second at his three previous runs behind some great horses, so is due for a win. Stepping back in distance should also benefit him. No reason he can’t win! Prim And Proper won’t know herself with just 51.5kg on her back due to Beaux’s claim. I question whether she’s been facing some physical issues, as she’s only had three races (including the two this preparation) since her second in the group 3 Gimcrack in March last year. However, she hasn’t run a bad race and if she brings her group 3 form, she can definitely win this. Cryptic Love has just been getting too far back in her runs. She can run on, but the potential to get boxed in is greater from the back. She’s had over a month since her last start, so perhaps that run took a bit out of her. I would love to see her settle slightly further forward and then run on from there.
10 – We’ve Got Dreams
3 – Massimo
12 – Prim And Proper
7 – Cryptic Love


Best Bet

Race 8 – Western Pride

Confidence rating

I’ve tipped a heap of short priced favourites on top and that always makes me nervous, though I’m mostly confident about races 1-4 (they would have been my best bets if they weren’t at such short odds). What also makes me nervous is that I’ve tipped Pike to win over half of the card. He’s a fantastic rider, but as we saw last week, he doesn’t seem to do as well when he’s riding so many favourites. Hopefully, he bucks the trend and I can bounce back this week with a profit.

Last Week’s Results

R7 – exacta
Winners in top 4 – 7/9
Top picks: -, -, 3rd, -, 1st , -, 1st, -, 2nd
Best bet: 1st
Profit: -9.1 (Outlay $20 – $1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)

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