Belmont 19/09/2020

Conditions

Rail – 8m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, showers most likely in the morning and afternoon

Race 1 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Maiden – 1300m – 12:04pm

Trade Fair Express has been racing really well this preparation, besides from his first up run which he obviously just needed fitness wise. Dropping back to 1300m looks to benefit him, though the wide barrier is a concern, he should be able to settle on pace, which is where he does his best work. His last 600m times aren’t the best, but he does have some of the strongest form and the most experience in this race. It must be frustrating for connections as he’s yet to win from thirteen starts (13:0-4-5) but he should go close once again. My Hidden Journey showed a really nice turn of foot when first up with no trial. We saw that last preparation as well, with him recording career best results towards the end. The track/distance look to suit him (2:0-1-1) and he’s placed second up before (2:0-1-0), with a soft track being the only thing that would really have improved my confidence of him. He’s drawn wide, but I’m not too concerned as I think his turn of foot can help him overcome this. He should run another good race. Brave Dream was incredibly short for my liking when the market opened on Thursday morning ($1.95 for the win), especially given her trial results. However, after watching her latest trial replay Clint literally didn’t move a muscle on her and she still finished off really strongly. Her only race was this time last year, where she finished fifth behind some great horses after miss striding at the 150m mark and perhaps losing momentum. With one race under her belt and the year off, I expected her to have matured. She too has drawn wide so it will be interesting to see where she settles in the race as her racing pattern is a bit unknown. She looks to have ability though and must be respected. Zingano actually beat Brave Dream in a trial leading into this race, though she was pushed more than her, which I think is the difference between the two. Her only race wasn’t as strong as Brave Dream too and she finished sixth with no obvious excuses (perhaps pulled up sore after though). However, she definitely looks to have improved this preparation and is the only one of my top four tips to actually draw a decent barrier. She should only improve off this run.
1 – Trade Fair Express
2 – My Hidden Journey
10 – Brave Dream
11 – Zingano

Race 2 – Amelia Park Plate – 1200m – 12:44pm

Dom To Shoot is a very classy horse, finishing second in the group 3 WA Sires last preparation. He looks to have come back just as good this preparation, coming from last to finish second first up. He’s unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). He’s drawn wide but ability alone should help him overcome this. Indigo Blue improved with each trial, coming second and then winning a trial leading into this race. Her first up race was good, where she finished second. Clint takes over from Mitchell (most likely due to the 54kg), who can hopefully settle her into a nice position despite drawing a wide barrier. Either way, she should improve here with one run under her belt. Sweet Demand is two for two in her trials, so looks to have ability. One trial was over 1100m, which is good to see, so the 1200m shouldn’t be too short for her. She’s got a good barrier and is competitively weight due to the conditions of the race. Great place value bet! Life For A Life also won a trial leading into this race. Interestingly to note, Chris Graham looked to have his pick between this horse and Sweet Demand, having ridden both at their trials. Whether he picked this horse because he thinks he’s better is yet to be seen. My only concern is that he might get stuck on the rail from barrier one and then not be able to get out. However, he only has to carry 54kg with Chris’ claim and should run a good race.
1 – Dom To Shoot
5 – Indigo Blue
8 – Sweet Demand
2 – Life For A Life

Race 3 – Tabtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1200m – 1:19pm

Tajmali was racing extremely well in Kalgoorlie at her last two preparations, which would have really helped boost her confidence. She comes into this race without a trial but does have a fantastic first up record (3:2-0-1) and her distance record is pretty good too (5:2-1-0). She’s only had one run at Belmont which was at the end of her preparation, so I don’t think we can say for sure that this track isn’t her favourite. She only has to carry 58kg with Chris’ claim, which certainly puts her back in the race. From the inside barrier, she should be able to obtain a forward position easily too. I can see why she’s the favourite here. Carabinier was really in career best form towards the end of last preparation, with some good horses coming out of those races too. She looks to be continuing that form here, with a solid trial, finishing second behind Red Can Man. Her first up record is good (3:1-0-0) and both of her wins have been over this distance (3:2-0-0). It looks like things have clicked for her. Gillespie managed to lead all the way when first up, but then was disappointing second up, getting run down to finish sixth. Statistically, he loves this track/distance (6:1-3-1) and with no other runners looking to go forward, he will be able to set the pace he likes. If he misses the jump, then getting to the lead might be difficult and/or require a lot of energy earlier on. However, otherwise, he should be able to cross them easily. With fitness on his side, he’ll be giving them all something to run down. Abby Lane showed a really good turn of foot when first and second up this preparation. His second up performance was particularly impressive, finishing third to Inspirational Girl. Third up he had a lot of bad luck, so just put a line through that race. However, last start the stewards’ report said he raced in a flat matter, which does raise a few red flags for me. Obviously, he pulled up ok though, because he’s racing here. Connections will be praying that the rain comes early for him, but with that turn of foot he can surprise.
2 – Tajmali
6 – Carabinier
3 – Gillespie
7 – Abby Lane

Race 4 – Schweppes Handicap – 1000m – 1:59pm

River Beau is probably the classiest horse in this race, with incredible form surrounding his races last preparation. This class does mean that he has to carry 60kg, but he won with that weight last preparation, so it isn’t too much of a concern. However, the weight plus the wide barrier will make for an interesting race. His distance record is good (6:2-1-1) and so was his trial leading into this race, where he finished second behind Stageman. The only thing that would make me more confident is if he was second up, so look out for him next start. Eeyore Wayz was a touch disappointing last start but could have gotten stuck in traffic (without having watched the replay). However, as long as he can get out and going, then he’s a huge threat, as we saw two starts ago where he beat Weaponson. He does give him 5kg because of that result (and a claiming apprentice) but he has drawn significantly better here. He can win without surprising. Weaponson has simply been beaten by a better horse, finishing second at every start this preparation (which yes, has been very frustrating for the owners!). He’s drawn wide again, but that should enable him to take up a forward position, which is where he does his best racing. He only has to carry 55kg due to Kristy’s claim, which does mean he gets 5kg on Eeyore Wayz since they last met. He has a great distance record (5:1-4-0) and probably does his best racing on a good track, so I’ll be hoping the rain hasn’t set in too much by now (for his sake and mine). No doubt that he’ll be in the finish once again! Special Choice may be a Mr Peters’ horse, but she was a touch disappointing last preparation. However, she has a great first up record (3:1-2-0) and had a nice trial leading into this race. This distance looks to suit (1:0-1-0) and her form this time last year was fantastic. If she can bounce back to her old self, then this is going to be an incredibly even top four!
1 – River Beau
2 – Eeyore Wayz
4 – Weaponson
5 – Special Choice

Race 5 – Morley Growers Market Handicap – 1400m – 2:39pm

Last Of The Line looks to be a horse with a lot of ability. He didn’t place outside the top three in his first preparation (3:2-0-1) and it’s hard to see that changing here. His trial leading into this race wasn’t as snappy as last preparation which does make me a bit nervous. However, he’s unbeaten at this distance (2:2-0-0) and first up (1:1-0-0). Just hoping he improves off that trial. Enduring Moment is a serious threat to my top tip. He has a few more runs under his belt and is versatile in where he can sit in the race, which could give him an advantage here. He loves this track (4:1-2-1) and is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He has drawn wide and is still making his way through the grades, but no reason why he can’t win. Native Chimes is two for two this preparation and looks to be in for a great preparation. Those wins were in a lower grade and only against other fillies/mares but a win is a win. Her track/distance record is good (3:1-1-0) as is her third up record (3:0-2-1). The only reason she’s further down my list is I don’t think she has the x-factor like my top two tips. Approach is career best form this preparation, recording a second and two wins from three starts. They have been at a lower class, but with his turn of foot, he definitely deserves a crack at this. The form surrounding his last start win looks particularly strong, with Annihilator coming out and winning on Wednesday. He’s unbeaten at this track (2:2-0-0) but has yet to place at his distance (2:0-0-0). With his turn of foot he can win this.
2 – Last Of The Line
8 – Enduring Moment
6 – Native Chimes
3 – Approach

Race 6 – Byron Bay Premium Lager Handicap – 1400m – 3:20pm

Inspirational Girl is a superstar in the making and one to watch this coming spring carnival. Her career statistics are amazing (7:6-1-0) and she’s unbeaten over this track/distance (2:2-0-0). She has had nearly two months off since her last start, but her first up record is great (3:2-1-0), so she’ll have no trouble racing fresh. The small field means she won’t get too far back, though she can run on to some extent. Her race to lose. Western Pride faced defeat for the first time last start, which was three months ago. We know she’s better than that and even though she only came third in her trial leading into this race, I suspect that they weren’t out to break any records. She’s unbeaten first up (2:2-0-0) and at this distance (2:2-0-0). She can absolutely bounce back to her winning ways here. Red Hot Tip is better than his latest trial and is clearly looking for more distance. He did show a good turn of foot over 2400 in the group 2 WATC Derby, finishing second behind Tuscan Queen, which is incredible form. His first up record isn’t the best (2:0-0-0) and neither is his distance record (2:0-0-0). He may be looking for further but he’s a great place bet! Zero Demerits is on the one-week backup. He did win last start though, so he must have pulled up well. He’s been racing very consistently this preparation, with the last two races being some of his best. He does have a good turn of foot and combined with his track/distance record (5:3-0-1) he should run another great race. I just think that he might find my top two tips that little bit too good for him. 
1 – Inspirational Girl
7 – Western Pride
4 – Red Hot Tip
5 – Zero Demerits

Race 7 – Nicopolis Stakes – 1200m – 3:55pm

Celebrity Queen finished off last preparation really strongly and looks to have come back just as good. Her biggest weakness looks to be if she gets stuck in traffic and this is a concern again here, as a few horses could cross her if she doesn’t jump well. She does have a good turn of foot though, which should help to keep her out of trouble to some extent. Her first up record (2:2–0-0) and track/distance record (1:1-0-0) are both faultless, which adds another feather to her cap. This field is certainly no walk in the park though and that’s my biggest concern. Money Matters proved that he’s a horse to be reckoned with, placing second and winning two races this preparation, beating some good horses in the process. It looked like 1000m would be his ideal distance, but he did win a listed race over 1600m last preparation, so the 1200m should be right up his alley. Plus, he has won over this distance before (3:2-0-0). It looks like he prefers a hot tempo and I’m not sure the race maps to get that, but he’ll make his own luck. Despite rising in the weights by 2kg, he can win this hands down. Cliff Of Comfort probably hasn’t been as good as last preparation (where he was unbeaten in three starts). However, he did have an excuse last start (raced wide throughout) so I’m willing to forgive that run. He steps back up to 1200m which is certainly going to benefit him (3:3-0-0) and he’s finally drawn a good barrier. The form surrounding his races isn’t as strong as many top two tips, but you can’t knock his career statistics (6:4-0-1). He’s another live winning chance. Multiverse is a bit unlucky because he finds himself in another very competitive race. It’s been about three weeks since his last start, so that does make me question whether that run did take a bit out of him. However, he does seem to like his races spaced out, so it isn’t too much of a concern. The form surrounding his races is some of the best and he’s been racing consistently, but he may just find one better here once again.
7 – Celebrity Queen
2 – Money Matters
8 – Cliff Of Comfort
4 – Multiverse

Race 8 – Peoplestart Handicap – 1200m – 4:35pm

Ocean’s Fifteen didn’t finish off last preparation very strongly, but I think he perhaps didn’t like settling so close to the speed. In this case, the wide barrier may actually be a blessing, as he will be able to sit back. His trial might have not looked that flashy, finishing second behind Brooklyn Pier, who won by 5.9 lengths. However, Brooklyn Pier than came out and won, so this looks like good form to follow. His first up record is good (2:1-1-0) and he’s yet to finish outside the top two at this distance (4:2-2-0). He’s at very short odds, but this doesn’t look like an overall strong field. He should run a good race. More Aces always seems to slip under the radar for me. He comes out of a mid-week race where he finished third, but he puts in a good performance when he’s leading and, in a race, where it looks like only Sharpbob will go forward, this can definitely be an advantage. He drops in weight due to the rise in class and does get a good barrier. Not really much to complain or rave about with this horse. He should run another good race. Danny George looked to have perhaps got into a spot of trouble last start, preventing him from running on. His first up run, where he finished a close third to Long Beach, suggests that he does have a turn of foot which should help him overcome the wide barrier too. I would have preferred him over 1000m, but if he can bring that turn of foot here, he has solid claims. Reaction rises significantly in class and is on the one-week backup, which seems like a big ask for a horse with mixed form. What is in his favour is that he drops 6.5kg off last start and he has a pretty decent barrier. He looks to be slightly outclassed here though.
7 – Ocean’s Fifteen
4 – More Aces
2 – Danny George
9 – Reaction

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 2100m – 5:15pm

Bonneville Black has won two in a row leading into this race, so definitely brings confidence from those runs. Switching up his racing pattern to racing on speed looks to have made the world of difference, as half of his career wins have come in his last two starts. Perhaps he just loves to run for Madi too. With her claim, he only had to carry 53kg and he’s got another decent barrier. He should be in the finish once again. Gunnago finished second to Bonneville Black last start but only gets 1.5kg on him as I result, which problem isn’t enough on its own to help turn the tables. He’s really been appreciating these longer distances, though is technically yet to place over 2100m (2:0-0-0). He does have a turn of foot which may prove deadly if he doesn’t get too far back and doesn’t get boxed in. He’s going to give my top tip a run for his money. Double Digit also comes out of the same race as Bonneville Black, where he finished third (so I’m hoping they place in the same order here). He’s been racing very consistently in his last three starts over 2000-2200m. He only gets 2kg on Bonneville Black and 0.5kg on Gunnago. Despite this, I think it’s going to be a bit hard to turn the tables, simply because they did beat him so convincingly. Aconite brings different form lines to the race which could help her to mix things up. She’s been racing really well over 1600m, but I think the step up in distance could actually benefit for. She has great form surrounding her races and only has to carry 56.5kg with Chris’ claim. The extra 500m is the only thing that has a question mark over it.
6 – Bonneville Black
3 – Gunnago
2 – Double Digit
4 – Aconite

Best Bet

Race 6 – Inspirational Girl

Confidence rating

You’d think with some many favourites on top my confidence would be better but no, just like my own horses, I hate tipping/owning favourites. I’m mostly concerned about race 1, where I tossed up for ages on whether I should put Brave Dream on top but sticking with my gut. Races 4 and 5 also look very competitive, while race 7 is just one I’d avoid completely! It’s going to be hard to get a profit with some many favourites but I’m hoping I can get one.

Last Week’s Results

R4-boxed first 4
R8-trifecta
Winners in top 4 – 7/9
Top picks: 1st, -, 1st, 1st, 3rd (no pay), 2nd, 1st, 1st, –
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: +5.68