Belmont 19/05/2021

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Crown Perth Plate – 1000m – 11:53pm

1 – Bopping Blue
5 – Star Soprano
11 – Thomas Magnum
8 – Saintly City

Bopping Blue won in a nice fashion at his second start. He’s drawn wide here but this should allow him to get to the front easily and give them something to run down. Star Soprano is first up here and having his second start. He’s won two trials leading into this race, including one on a soft track. He’s drawn just inside Bopping Blue and also likes to lead, so I expect to see these two in the first couple. He’ll improve with one run under his belt. Thomas Magnum is having his first start. He’s had just the two trials but won the latest one by a good margin. He’s drawn a touch wide but might get the box seat behind my two top tops. Interested to see what he can do here. Saintly City has finished second in all three of his trials. He’s never finished far off the winner though and is a great value tip.

Suggested bet: Bopping Blue, Star Soprano, Thomas Magnum and Saintly City – each way

Race 2 – Tabtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1400m – 12:32pm

1 – I’m Pretty
2 – Speedy Miss
4 – Lord Lonsdale
3 – Brother Paddy

Comment: I’m Pretty is coming off a win and does have to give a couple of these horses 1kg as a result. Her second up record could be better (4:0-1-0) but she has won at this track/distance before (3:2-0-0). Speedy Miss finished second to I’m Pretty last start and the weight difference could be enough to turn the tables, as she only has to carry 57kg due to Kristy’s claim. She benefited from settling in the first two last start and has won at this track/distance (5:2-2-0). Lord Lonsdale was his own worst enemy last start and apparently didn’t appreciate the quick back up. His races have been more spaced here and he’s unbeaten over this distance (1:1-0-0). Brother Paddy is coming off a win, though be it in a lower class. He only has to carry 56.5kg due to Laqdar’s claim. His soft track record is a concern if the track doesn’t dry out by Saturday (6:0-0-1).

Suggested bet: I’m Pretty and Speedy Miss – each way

Race 3 – Morley Growers Market Handicap – 1200m – 1:12pm

5 – Timely Outburst
1 – Vane Tempest
2 – First Law
3 – Reign Of Fire

Comment: Timely Outburst tasted defeat for the first time at her past two races (5:3-2-0). She drops down in class here which looks to benefit. She’s also drawn nicely and has placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). I think this race will determine whether she’s just a 1000m horse. Vane Tempest is looking to make it three wins in a row. Those wins have been in weaker company and she’s up in class, but you can’t knock winning form. She comes to Belmont for the first time but has a good distance record (5:2-1-1). No reason why she can’t win. First Law is coming off a win. He’s up in class so drops 2kg off that run. He’s drawn a bit wide but does have a turn of foot to overcome it plus he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). Reign Of Fire was thought to be good enough to contest the group 2 Guineas last year. He’s had quite the gap between runs, so did quite well first up to finish third. Stepping up in distance will definitely benefit him, as he’s unbeaten over this track/distance (1:1-0-0). With one run under his belt this preparation, we could see an improved performance this start, especially in such an even race.

Suggested bet: Timely Outburst, Vane Tempest, First Law and Reign Of Fire – each way

Race 4 – Happy 50th Birthday To Grant Mclearie Handicap – 1000m – 1:48pm

3 – Drinkwhatyoulike
2 – Sunnysilk
6 – Dunbar
1 – Agent Jay

Comment: Drinkwhatyoulike finished second last start by a small margin. She’s yet to place outside of the top three this preparation and has placed at this track/distance before (2:0-1-0). She’s had quite the gap between runs (not sure why) but she does go well fresh. Pike jumps off in favour of Dunbar, but this mare will give them something to run down. Sunnysilk beat Drinkwhatyoulike two starts ago and has to give her 1kg here. This horse was a touch disappointing last start with nothing in the stewards’ report. She’s drawn nicely and this race doesn’t look to be as tough on paper as last start, so look for her to bounce back here. Dunbar was not his usual self-last preparation. He looks to be ready to bounce back here after winning a trial. Pike has ridden him to all of his wins too. Interested to see how he goes. Agent Jay narrowly tasted defeat last start. He only has to carry 59.5kg due to Keshaw’s claim, which is 1kg more than last start. He’s also on the one-week backup.

Suggested bet: Drinkwhatyoulike, Sunnysilk and Dunbar – each way

Race 5 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Handicap – 1600m – 2:28pm

1 – True Attraction
5 – Sowar
2 – Tinsnip
9 – Treasured Crown

Comment: True Attraction showed a good turn of foot last start. He jumps up to a Saturday race here but loves this track/distance (3:1-2-0). He also only has to carry 58.5kg due to Keshaw’s claim. Sowar is also coming off a win, though be it in weaker company at Northam. He does have a turn of foot and has placed at this track/distance (2:0-0-2). He’ll bring confidence from that run. Tinsnip didn’t have the ideal run last start. He was racing well before that though. I’m just not convinced that he likes Belmont (6:0-0-0). Treasured Crown got held up last start so had excuses there. It’s been a while since we’ve seen him at his best, so I’m surprised to see him as the favourite. He has won at Belmont before (2:1-0-0) but hasn’t placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-0).

Suggested bet: True Attraction – each way

Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 3:05pm

2 – Excellent Dream
8 – Brooklyn Pier
3 – Friaresque
4 – Reflectivity

Comment: Excellent Dream just got way too far back last start, plus he was first up, so forgive that run. Pike jumps on board here and this horse has a great second up record (3:2-1-0). He’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0) but does love this distance (5:3-1-0), so look for him to bounce back here. Brooklyn Pier is coming off a win first up. He’s yet to win second up (2:0-1-0) but is a horse full of ability. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him winning here. Friaresque has been racing well lately. He drops down in distance which should benefit given that he’s placed at this track/distance before (3:0-1-1). Reflectivity is having his first start in WA. His trial was good and he has placed first up before (9:0-3-1), but I think he’ll improve next start.

Suggested bet: Excellent Dream and Brooklyn Pier – each way

Race 7 – Heineken 3 Handicap – 1200m – 3:40pm

3 – Amasenus
5 – Comes A Time
2 – Eeyore Wayz
4 – Special Choice

Comment: Amasenus is looking to make it five wins in a row. She’s coming off a first up win where she showed a really good turn of foot. She does rise 2kg off that win and this track/distance does leave her a bit vulnerable (1:0-1-0) but she should run a good race. Comes A Time finished second to Amasenus (with this race looking like good form to follow) and gets 1.5kg on her here. He’s yet to place at this track/distance (2:0-0-0) but should easily find the front from barrier 6 and give them something to run down. Eeyore Wayz probably got a little bit too far back last start. He finished fourth behind Amasenus. I do think he may be a better 1000m horse, but he has won over 1200m before (3:1-0-1) and placed at this track/distance (2:0-0-1). Special Choice brings different form lines to this race. She got too far back last start but from barrier 7 here, she should be able to get a better position. She’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0), but that can change here.

Suggested bet: Amasenus, Comes A Time, Eeyore Wayz and Special Choice – each way

Race 8 – WAROA-Belmont Guineas – 1600m – 4:15pm

2 – Billy Ain’t Silly
10 – Tri For Us
11 – The Verdict
12 – Allmamoney

Comment: Billy Ain’t Silly is your definition of consistent! He just got beaten by a better horse last start (one of Mr Peters’) so don’t take anything away from that run. He’s drawn slightly wide but should easily find the front from there. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and goes well on a soft track (4:1-1-2). It’s not a surprise to see him as the favourite. Tri For Us is up in class but yet to finish outside of the top two (6:3-3-0). She’s drawn beautifully in barrier five and is proven over this track/distance (2:1-1-0). She can win without surprising. The Verdict finished fifth behind Tri For Us two starts ago. She then dropped down in class to record a win. She’s significantly up in class here but is proven at this distance (3:2-0-0) and on a soft track (1:1-0-0). Class might just get the better of her but she’s great value!! Allmamoney was disappointing behind Billy Ain’t Silly last start, with nothing written in the stewards’ report. She’s unbeaten over this distance though (1:1-0-0) and I think if she can settle in the first few, she could surprise, as last start was her first time outside of the top three.

Suggested bet: Billy Ain’t Silly and Tri For Us – each way

Race 9 – Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap – 1400m – 4:45pm

6 – Hot Zed
7 – Comfort Me
2 – Moschard
3 – Serenity Bay

Comment: Hot Zed is just so consistent and has some really good form surrounding his races. From barrier 1, he should easily find the front and give them something to run down. The only thing that leaves him a bit vulnerable is the distance, but he has placed at this distance before (1:0-0-1). Comfort Me is up in class but coming off a narrow win. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0), which is his biggest draw card, and he won’t mind it if the track is a little choppy by now. He’s drawn lovely in barrier 6 and is third up so should nearly be spot on fitness wise. Moschard has a good turn of foot as long as he can get out. It looks like he’ll get back from barrier 9, but at least he’s no stranger to this track/distance (7:2-1-1). Serenity Bay was first up last start without a trial and that freshness was shown in the run. She has a good second up record (4:1-1-1) and looks to be in for a better preparation than last time. The wide barrier may just get her here.

Suggested bet: Hot Zed, Comfort Me, Moschard and Serenity Bay – each way

Best Bet

Race 7 – Amasenus

Confidence rating

It’s an incredibly tough tipping day! True Attraction is my biggest worry in race 5 and I tossed up for ages between Hot Zed and Comfort Me in race 9. It was really hard to decide on a best bet but I went with Amasenus just because he’s on a roll at the moment.

Last Week’s Results

R6-quinella
R7-boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4: 8/9
Top picks: -, 1st, -, -, -, 2nd, 2nd, -, 3rd
Best bet: –
Profit: -10.6 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)