Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 18/09/2021

Conditions

Rail – 6m
Track – Soft 6
Forecast – Max 20 degrees, shower or two developing

Race 1 – Amelia Park Plate – 1600m – 12:43pm

1 – Celevacci
4 – Henchard
5 – River Rubicon
7 – Feuding

Comment: Celevacci is unbeaten in his career and his first preparation (2:2-0-0). He had a trial since his last run, so there is a slight question mark over why this is the case. He ran well in that trial though, so there are no concerns there. He’s yet to official race on a soft track, but his trial performances suggest that he should handle it. There’s no reason for him to run a bad race. Henchard has great career statistics (2:1-1-0), getting the win on the board last start. Thanks to that run, he’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0). Again, he’s yet to official race on a soft track, but he has won two trials on a soft track. He can win without surprising. River Rubicon won at his first start on a soft track. That race was at Northam, so he will face Belmont for the first time. He’s also up in distance, but his trials suggest that he could be looking for further. With one run under his belt, he should only improve. Feuding was a touch disappointing last start, with no real excuses. He drops back in distance which should benefit, and he’s drawn an inside barrier, so hopefully, he can settle in the first few. My biggest concern is what the track is going to be like with the amount of rain we’re having because he’s not exactly known for liking a soft track. I think his odds are a good reflection of his chances.

Suggested bet: Celevacci, Henchard and River Rubicon – each way

Race 2 – Schweppes Handicap – 1400m – 1:19pm

2 – Kaptain Kaos
1 – Zephyr Queen
4 – Rebel Knight
5 – Miss Marietta

Comment: Kaptain Kaos has shown an incredible turn of foot at his past two starts. he steps up to 1400m, but he has placed at this distance before (1:0-0-1). He’s unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0) and being third up, he should be nearly spot on fitness wise. I’m not surprised to see his odds that short. Zephyr Queen has been pretty consistent at her past 3 runs and she definitely seemed to have benefited from leading. She’s up in class here and due to Keshaw’s claim as well, she only has to carry 56kg, which makes her competitive. She’s placed at this track/distance (5:0-0-2) and is no stranger to a soft track (14:4-0-5). The small field will give her every chance too.  Rebel Knight can bit hit and miss, but he didn’t finish that far off Kaptain Kaos last start and gets 2kg on him here. Given that he won over 1300m two starts ago, stepping up to 1400m from 1200m should suit him. Pike jumps back on board and this horse is proven on a soft track (6:1-2-0). He could surprise. Miss Marietta was her own worst enemy last start. She’s yet to place at this track/distance (2:0-0-0) but stepping up in distance should help her chances. She’s also second up (5:1-1-1) and likes a soft track (5:2-0-1). Look for her to bounce back here.

Suggested bet: Kaptain Kaos, Zephyr Queen and Rebel Knight – each way

Race 3 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1000m – 1:59pm

1 – Apple Schnapps
4 – Famous Jurney
2 – Pink ‘N’ Gray
7 – Petite La Femme

Comment: Apple Schnapps has recorded 3 wins in her past 4 starts. She rises 2kg off last start and while 61kg does seem like a lot of weight to carry, she has previously won with 60.5kg and 60kg. She likes this track/distance (4:2-0-1) and is proven on a soft track (6:2-1-1). As long as she can handle the weight, she’ll run a good race. Famous Journey is going off a win first up, though be it in weaker company. She has drawn wide but does like to race in the first few, so that could be a blessing in disguise. She hasn’t placed at this distance (1:0-0-0) and is probably looking for further. At least she has won on a soft track though (2:1-1-0). She’s good value. Pink ‘N’ Gray looked to have had enough at the end of last preparation. He comes into this race without a trial, but he does go well first up (7:1-1-1). He’s placed at this track/distance (3:0-1-1) and on a soft track (8:0-3-3). I do worry that he’ll get a bit too far back from barrier 8, but at least he only has to carry 56kg with Kristy’s claim. He’s good value. Petite La Femme hasn’t been at the races for about 3 months and does come into this race without a trial After 23 starts, she’s still yet to record a win (23:0-3-6). The form surrounding her races is probably some of the strongest though and she has placed on a soft track (7:0-1-3). She could surprise.

Suggested bet: Apple Schnapps, Famous Jurney and Pink ‘N’ Gray – each way

Race 4 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Handicap – 1200m – 2:38pm

4 – Buzzoom
1 – War Gem
2 – Probity
3 – Born To Talk

Comment: Buzzoom looks to be continuing her good form this preparation. She looked to have been beaten by a better horse first up, but she’ll take improvement from that run. She’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0) but does face a soft track for the first time, so there is a slight question mark over that. If she can handle that combined with the wide barrier, she’ll run a good race. War Gem is on the one-week backup but brings great form behind Red Fifty Three. Thanks to last start, he’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and on a soft track (1:0-1-0). My only concern is that 60kg does seem like a lot of weight to carry in this quality field. Probity is yet to place outside of the top three in his career (2:0-1-1). He’s first up here (1:0-0-1) and has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). He rises 3.5kg off last preparation’s run but his trial looks like he’s ready to go. He’s one to watch going forward. Born To Talk has simple career statistics to Probity (2:0-1-1), but this horse is third up. He definitely likes to race at the front, so hopefully, as long as he jumps well from barrier 1, he should get this position. He rises 3kg off last start’s third and he’s never raced on a soft track. He’s great value though in this open race!

Suggested bet: Buzzoom, War Gem, Probity and Born To Talk – each way

Race 5 – Happy 70th Birthday Rosie Handicap – 1600m – 3:20pm

4 – No Apology
5 – Fangio
6 – La Farola
3 – Bad Wolf

Comment: No Apology was just beaten by a better horse last start in Fangio. He gets 1.5kg on him here though and they step up in distance, which I’m hoping will help this horse to turn the tables. He loves this track/distance (2:1-0-1) and a soft track (6:2-2-1). I just hope that not too many horses try and cross him, seeing as he’s drawn barrier 1. He’ll run a good race though. Fangio beat No Apology last start as I previously mentioned, and he didn’t have an ideal run either. From barrier 8, I suspect that he’ll get back again, though hopefully, for connections, he’ll have a bit more luck this start. He has a good distance record (6:3-1-0) but is yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0). Pike retains the ride, and this horse has won on a soft track (5:2-2-0). There’s no reason why he can’t win. La Farola comes out of the same race as No Apology and Fangio, where she finished fourth. She actually didn’t finish that far off the winner though. She’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0) but hasn’t raced over it at Belmont. Her soft track record could be better (2:0-1-0), but class could see her winning here. Bad Wolf is looking to make it 3 wins in a row. For an older horse, he’s recording some of his best results. He also loves this track/distance (4:2-0-1) and he’s no stranger to a soft track (20:4-1-1). He rounds out an even race.

Suggested bet: No Apology, Fangio, La Farola and Bad Wolf – each way

Race 6 – Byron Bay Premium Lager Handicap – 1300m – 3:55pm

8 – Reliable Star
2 – Image Keeper
3 – Marlize
1 – Campese

Comment: Reliable Star is definitely looking for further, which her previous form and recent trial definitely suggests. She has placed at this distance before though (1:0-0-1) and first up (1:0-0-1). The thing I love most is that she’s unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0). She’s amazing value. Image Keeper won three in a row last preparation and looks ready to continue that form here after winning a trial leading into this race. While he’s yet to place at this distance (1:0-0-0) that was at his first ever start and there’s no doubt that he’s improved since then. He would have preferred a good track, but he has won on a soft track before (3:1-0-0). He’s a much safer bet! Marlize showed a good turn of foot last start on a soft track. She’s placed at Belmont (4:0-1-1) and over 1300m (3:0-1-0), but she hasn’t faced these conditions together. From barrier 10, I suspect that she’ll go back again. At least she only has to carry 57kg thanks to Laqdar’s claim. I also like her soft track record (6:2-1-1) and her form behind Ohbeed last start. She’s another value bet. Campese just had a lot of bad luck last start, so basically put a line through that run. His form prior to that run was good and he is proven on a soft track (5:1-2-0). Look for him to bounce back here.

Suggested bet: Reliable Star, Image Keeper, Marlize and Campese – each way

Race 7 – Nicopolis Stakes – 1200m – 4:35pm

8 – Iseered Iseered
7 – Charleton Eddie
3 – Don’t Fuss
9 – Crystal Spirit

Comment: Iseered Iseered is just going from strength to strength this preparation and is looking to make it 3 wins in a row. He’s unbeaten at Belmont thanks to his past two runs and he’s proven on a soft track (4:3-0-0). What does make me nervous is that he’s yet to place over 1200m (2:0-0-0). If he can handle that, then he should be winning here. Charleton Eddie finished second to Iseered Iseered last start and gets 1.5kg here. This horse is second up now though (4:2-2-0), he loves a soft track (2:1-1-0) and he’s won at this distance (5:2-1-1). His distance statistic could be the winning difference. Don’t Fuss is the most experienced horse in this race if that counts for anything. He also finished third to Iseered Iseered, which looks like the form to follow coming into this race. Pike retains the ride, which is always a positive in a feature race. This horse has also won at this track/distance (5:1-1-0) and on a soft track (13:4-1-3). The only concern is that he’ll possibly get back from barrier 10 and I’m just not sure how good his turn of foot is. Crystal Spirit brings slightly different form lines to this race, but he also brings an amazing turn of foot, which will prove valuable from barrier 9. His track/distance record is also in his favour (7:4-1-1). He’s a value chance.

Suggested bet: Iseered Iseered, Charleton Eddie, Don’t Fuss and Crystal Spirit – each way

Race 8 – Crown Perth Handicap – 2000m – 5:10pm

1 – Red Hot Tip
2 – Sowar
7 – Overthought
6 – Seminole Brave

Comment: Red Hot Tip has been improving with each run this preparation. He steps up in distance here and while he’s yet to race over 2000m, given how he’s raced over 2200m-3100m, he should handle it. A few red flags are that he has to carry 60.5kg from barrier 11, though he did carry 60kg to finish second last start. He could have had a slightly better soft track record too (5:0-1-1). If he can handle the conditions, he’ll go close. Sowar can be hit and miss but he did narrowly finish second last start. I also really like the turn of foot he showed three starts ago on a soft 5 track. He’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and is proven on a soft track (10:1-4-2). He should run a good race. Overthought has also been improving with each run this preparation and looks to be finally hitting her stride after winning last start. That was in a weaker race though. She does her best work when she’s in the first few, so from barrier 14, I suspect she’ll go forward. Hopefully, she doesn’t get stuck out wide though. She rounds out a very even race. Seminole Brave steps up to 2000m for the first time. His results suggest that he may be looking for that touch further. His last two races have been good and he’s proven on a soft track (4:1-0-2).

Suggested bet: Red Hot Tip, Sowar, Overthought and Seminole Brave – each way

Race 9 – Ascot Racing Carnival Handicap – 1000m – 5:40pm

9 – Strathmore Rose
2 – Sunnysilk
3 – Mood Swings
5 – All Day Session

Comment: Strathmore Rose was a touch disappointing last start with nothing written in the stewards’ report, though she didn’t finish that far off the winner. She’s got a few gear changes this time, so hopefully, that will see her improve. She also has a good track/distance record (5:1-2-0) and loves a soft track (7:4-1-0). Look for her to bounce back here. Sunnysilk comes into this race without having a trial. She does go quite well first up though (3:1-2-0). Conditions look to really suit her, including her barrier and her track/distance record (4:2-1-0). She’s also placed on a soft track (2:0-1-0). She’s one to watch. Mood Swings finished third first up and should take improvement from that run. His second up isn’t as good though (2:0-1-0) and while he’s only placed at this track/distance (3:0-0-1), he does love this distance (9:2-4-1). His soft track record (3:0-0-2) might have something to do with Belmont not being his favourite. As he’ll be giving the field something to run down, if it’s a leader bias day by this time of the day, certainly don’t rule him out. All Day Session looked to have just gotten a touch too far back last start. He then had a few excuses in the straight. He should return to his former self here as he has won at this track/distance (7:2-2-0) and on a soft track (6:2-1-0). This is such an even race to finish the day on!

Suggested bet: Strathmore Rose, Sunnysilk, Mood Swings and All Day Session – each way


Best Bet

Race 3 – Apple Schnapps

Quaddie

R6: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8
R7: 3, 7, 8, 9
R8: 1, 2, 6, 7
R9: 2, 3, 5, 6, 9

Confidence rating

My confidence definitely decreases as the day goes on, so that makes for an interesting quaddie. Overall, it is an even day though and I guess it’s a glimpse into the carnival we have ahead of us. Races 2 and 3 are my most confident races but tipping horses who have very short odds is always a risk, especially on a soft track. Race 6 I’ve also gone for a bit of value, which makes me nervous.

Last Week’s Results

R5-boxed trifecta
R7-boxed first 4
Winners in top 4: 8/9
Top picks: 1st, 3rd, -, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, -, –
Best bet: 3rd
Quaddie: no
Profit: -2.76 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)

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