Belmont 17/07/2021

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Heavy 8
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, shower or two

Race 1 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Plate – 1200m – 12:07pm

1 – Storm Commander
7 – Knot Secret
5 – Forever Autumn
2 – Guard The Safe

Comment: Storm Commander is coming off a good win, with good form surrounding that race. That win was on a soft track, so hopefully, he’ll handle conditions here. He’s up in the weights but should go well. Knot Secret has had just the one trial which he won. The first two horses in that trial put a good distance on the rest of that field. There is a question mark on whether he’ll handle the soft/heavy track. Forever Autumn has shown a lot of ability in his trials. He probably got too far back last start, but from barrier 2, he should be able to settle in a more forward position. Guard The Safe also got too far back at his last two starts. He’s drawn barrier 1 here and has won on a soft track (2:1-0-0), so we could see an improved performance here.

Suggested bet: Storm Commander, Knot Secret, Forever Autumn and Guard The Safe – each way

Race 2 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1000m – 12:47pm

3 – Snippy Miss
5 – Dark City
1 – Express Time
2 – Bedouin Belle

Comment: Snippy Miss finally got a win on the board last start after knocking on the door for a while. She does rise 2kg off that run and drops down in distance. However, she has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0) and goes well on both a heavy (1:1-0-0) and soft track (5:1-2-1). There’s no reason for her to run a bad race. Dark City has been racing well in the country. What I like most about him is that he has shown a good turn of foot and he’s placed on a heavy track (1:0-0-1). If he can handle the class, he’s good value. Express Time beat Snippy Miss three starts ago, but then finished seventh to her two starts ago. She’s a horse that needs things to go her way. However, at least she only has to carry 58kg with Laqdar’s claim and she’s won at this track/distance (4:1-1-0). Bedouin Belle probably would like to settle a bit further forward in her runs and this should be achievable from barrier 1. The blinkers go on again and she’s placed on a heavy track (1:0-1-0). We’ll just have to see which horse turns up.

Suggested bet: Snippy Miss, Dark City. Express Time and Bedouin Belle – each way

Race 3 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1000m – 1:23pm

6 – Material Witness
4 – Comes A Time
5 – Silkinize
7 – Our Danni

Comment: Material Witness is yet to have placed outside of the top 3. He does rise in class here, but as a result, drops 4.5kg off last start’s third. He’s drawn beautifully in barrier 5 and has won on a soft track (2:1-1-0). Comes A Time drops down in distance but does love this track/distance (3:2-1-0). His form is probably some of the strongest in this race and he has placed on a heavy track before (2:0-0-1). He’s a huge threat to my top tip. Silkinize has been hit and miss this preparation. He has a good track/distance record (7:1-3-1) and has won on a soft track (6:1-2-1). The only concerns are that he’s yet to face a heavy track and last time he jumped from barrier 8, he didn’t have the best run. Our Danni hasn’t had a trial leading into this race but does go well first up (3:1-1-1). She does her best work when she’s in the first few and she should get that spot from barrier 1. She’s only ever raced on a good track, so I’ll be interested to see how she handles those conditions here.

Suggested bet: Material Witness and Comes A Time – each way

Race 4 – Amelia Park Handicap – 2100m – 2:03pm

1 – Blackwater Bay
4 – Sluice Box
2 – Kallaroo
7 – San Crispino

Comment: Blackwater Bay seemed to go a bit backwards last start, though there nothing was written in the stewards’ report. He drops down to a distance that he’s unbeaten over at Belmont (1:1-0-0) and he’s placed on a heavy track before (1:0-0-1). That plus the fact that he only has to carry 58kg due to Laqdar’s claim should see an improved performance. I just would have liked to have seen him drawn more of an inside barrier to be more confident. Sluice Box steps up to 2100m for the first time. He’s been racing well over 1600m and shown a good turn of foot in the process. He’s down in class so does rise 3.5kg off last start, but he has placed on a soft track before (7:0-3-2). Kallaroo seems to be more a 1400m horse but did handle the step up to 1600m. He doesn’t have the best turn of foot, so maybe the step up to 2100m will really suit him. He’s down in class as well and has won on a soft track (3:1-0-1), but is yet to race on a heavy track. San Crispino is consistently in the first four, though be it in a lower class. He’s yet to place at this track/distance (2:0-0-0), but her heavy track record makes her a great value bet (2:1-0-1).

Suggested bet: Blackwater Bay – each way

Race 5 – Drummond Golf Belmont Classic – 2200m – 2:38pm

2 – Tena Koutou
5 – Chili Is Hot
6 – Baronova
4 – Truly Reliable

Comment: Tena Koutou is looking to make it four wins in a row. He showed a good turn of foot winning a key lead up race in the listed Aquanita, so I can’t see the extra 200m being an issue. I love that he’s unbeaten on a soft track (3:3-0-0) and from barrier 2 with a small field, he shouldn’t get too far back. No reason why he should run a bad race. Chili Is Hot won the Belmont Oaks, which was the key lead up race for the fillies, so again, she should handle the distance here. She did put in a poor performance two starts ago, but that can be put down to her getting too far back and with the small field that shouldn’t happen here. She’s won on a soft track (3:2-1-0) and should go well. Baronova just didn’t quite handle the step up in class last start, but she did have a few excuses in the stewards’ report. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and Pike jumps on board which is always a positive in a feature race. Every horse should get their chance and her proven record at these longer distances could see her win. Truly Reliable finished third in the Aquanita. From barrier 1 he may have to take the lead and that always makes me nervous over these long distances. There isn’t anything to complain about with him and he rounds out an even race.

Suggested bet: Tena Koutou, Chili Is Hot, Baronova and Truly Reliable – each way

Race 6 – Perth Racing Club Membership Handicap – 1600m – 3:15pm

6 – Fuhrer
5 – True Attraction
7 – Playing Marika
3 – Friaresque

Fuhrer showed a huge improvement at his latest trial, which could be put down to the heavy track. If that is the case, he should relish the conditions here. He’s won at this track/distance before (2:1-0-0). He has had nearly a year between runs but hopefully, his trial form holds up. True Attraction showed an impressive turn of foot last start, which he needed from the wide barrier. It’s a slightly smaller field here, so that turn of foot makes him a huge threat. He also loves this track/distance (4:2-1-0) and has won on a soft track (5:3-1-0). He’s yet to race on a heavy track but he has the ability to overcome this. Playing Marika is coming off a win and looks to be hitting her stride. Her form isn’t as strong as True Attraction, but she has won at this track/distance before (6:2-0-0). Friaresque is kind of the best of the rest. He’s no stranger to this track/distance (11:1-2-2) and a soft track (11:1-3-3), but his heavy track record doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence (3:0-0-0). At least he only has to carry 55.5kg due to Laqdar’s claim, which does make him competitive.

Suggested bet: Fuhrer, True Attraction and Playing Marika – each way

Race 7 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1000m – 3:50pm

5 – Choice Bid
1 – Brooklyn Pier
9 – Sketta
6 – Janaura

Comment: Choice Bid is coming off a win, after improving with each run this preparation. He drops down in distance but has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). His soft track record is the biggest thing in his favour (4:1-2-1) and he should easily find the front from barrier 1. Brooklyn Pier has some of the strongest form in this race. He’s also won at this track/distance before (4:2-1-0) and only has to carry 58.5kg due to Laqdar’s claim, which puts him back in the race. He has ability but I worry that the heavy track will leave him vulnerable. Sketta is looking to make it 3 wins in a row. She drops down to 1000m but is unbeaten on a soft track (2:2-0-0). Pike also picks up the ride. There is just a small question on whether she’ll handle the step up in class, but you can’t knock winning form. Janaura has won a race leading into this one. Her form probably isn’t the strongest, but I love that she’s unbeaten on a heavy track (1:1-0-0). She’s won at this track/distance before (5:2-1-0) and should go well.

Suggested bet: Choice Bid, Brooklyn Pier, Sketta and Janaura – each way

Race 8 – Seacorp Handicap – 1200m – 4:20pm

9 – Real Grace
6 – Jag The Joker
7 – Wakan Tanka
8 – Devoted Star

Comment: Real Grace just hasn’t had a lot of luck in her runs! She perhaps could have won last start if she hadn’t had gotten boxed in. Pike jumps back on board, and she has won at this track and distance but not together. She’ll need some luck from barrier 8, but hopefully, she can bounce back here. Jag The Joker showed a nice turn of foot last start, finishing half a length off Wakan Tanka. She gets 1.5k on him here as a result. Last start was the first time we saw that turn of foot, as previously she’s raced in the first few. This versatility could prove valuable from the wide barrier. She’s won at this track/distance before (4:1-1-0) and on a soft track (7:1-2-1), so hopefully, she’ll handle the heavy going here. She’s good value. Wakan Tanka beat Jag The Joker last start as previously mentioned. He’s drawn wider here though and just isn’t as consistent as her, hence why I think the table will turn. Devoted Star looks to have gotten too far back last start. She had a good barrier at that start, so I’m not sure exactly why she got so far back. The wet track will be in her favour here, as she has previously won on a soft track (6:1-1-1). The fact she’s yet to place at this track/distance (3:0-0-0) does make me nervous though.

Suggested bet: Real Grace, Jag The Joker, Wakan Tanka and Devoted Star – each way

Race 9 – Salinger Handicap – 1400m – 5:00pm

2 – The Spruiker
7 – Speedy Miss
8 – Tiff Has Spoken
4 – Aberdeen Queen

Comment: The Spruiker is looking to make it four wins in a row. He should get a lovely run from barrier 5, is unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0) and on a soft track (2:2-0-0). He’s up in class but certainly deserves a crack at this. Speedy Miss has just been finding one or two better. She drops 5kg off last start’s run, due to Kristy’s claim and being up in class. She loves this track/distance (6:2-3-0) and should run a good race. Tiff Has Spoken was a bit disappointing last start, with nothing written in the stewards’ report. He’s drawn a better barrier here though and has placed at this track/distance (3:0-0-3). Looking for him to bounce back here. Aberdeen Queen never finishes that far off the winners. Dropping back in distance looks to suit, especially as she’s placed at this track/distance previously (1:0-0-1). She’s drawn a touch wide but does have a good turn of foot.

Suggested bet: The Spruiker, Speedy Miss, Tiff Has Spoken and Aberdeen Queen

Best Bet

Race 4 – Blackwater Bay

Confidence rating

The smaller fields do help my confidence this week, though there are still some very even races. Race 8 looks to be particularly nasty, and I’ve gone for value in race 7. The feature race in race 5 also looks to be evenly matched. My biggest concern is what sort of curveballs the heavy track is going to throw.

Last Week’s Results

R2-boxed trifecta
R8-boxed first 4
R9-boxed first 4
Winners in top 4: 9/11
Top picks: 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, -, -, 2nd, 1st, 2nd
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: +4.7 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)