Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 15/08/2020

Conditions

Rail – 10m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 21 degrees, showers, possible late storm, 15-20mm of rain

Race 1 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1400m – 11:47pm

Trade Fair Express is always in the finish but can’t quite get the chocolates (11:0-3-4). This looks to be a very suitable race with no obvious winner. He’s third up so will be fit going into this race plus he’ll also appreciate the soft track (5:0-2-1) and distance (2:0-2-0). He’s drawn lovely so should run a good race. Just hoping he’s not becoming the next Tom Melbourne and knows how to find the line. Fire Goddess looked to be progressing well before being slightly disappointing last start. That was on a soft track so I’m wondering whether she didn’t handle the conditions. This is a concern, given that the track will definitely be soft today. She’s drawn well and should be able to settle into a nice position given the small field. She has ability but may not be suited to the soft track, just have to wait and see. Miami City is the only maiden horse in this race but did win a trial over 1100m on a soft track so he should handle those conditions here. He also improved with each trial which is always good to see. The lack of experience might just be his downfall but no matter what the result he’ll improve off this run. Brave Call probably ran one of his career best races last start, where he finished second. He came off a winning trial leading into that race so perhaps the penny has finally dropped for him. He’s never placed second up (2:0-0-0) and the form surrounding his races isn’t the best, but he does like this track/distance (3:0-1-1) and will handle the soft track (4:0-1-1). He may just find one or two better in this race though.
1 – Trade Fair Express
6 – Fire Goddess
5 – Miami City
2 – Brave Call

Race 2 – Long Leaf At Rangeview Stud Plate – 1200m – 12:27pm

Not tipping my horses to win is one of my superstitious, but the statistics are hard to ignore with Clairvoyance! The biggest thing that swayed my decision was that her 1000m races were run nearly 4 seconds quicker than Watch Me Dance’s latest trial and 2 seconds quicker than what What Me Dance ran at her first start over 1016m. Clairvoyance also beat Starfield Impact last start (quite convincingly really!) and he beat Watch Me Dance in the group 3 Gimcrack in March this year, so I’m hoping this form holds up. The step up to 1200m would be the only concern and perhaps that gives them more time to catch her. She’s a $1.40 favourite for a reason but I’m just hoping I haven’t jinxed her by putting her on top! Watch Me Dance is a classy filly and can win this without surprising at all! She’s yet to finish outside the top three in her career (6:3-2-1) and arguably should have won a few of those other races. She’s won first up before (1:1-0-0) and has placed at this distance (2:0-1-1). People seemed to have forgotten that she’s placed in group 2 and 3 races which are more than what Clairvoyance has done. I think her turn of foot is what could be her deadly weapon if she can handle the hot tempo and racing on a soft track for the first time. It’s a small field and her trial leading into this race was good. She makes this a very interesting two horse race! Keep Your Feet probably deserves more credit because his statistics are amazing, only finishing outside of the top three once (5:1-1-2) but he looks to have found himself in a very competitive field! Any other race and he’d probably be winning, as he loves this Belmont (3:1-1-1) and a soft track (2:1-0-1). He too has a good turn of foot, but again his 1000m race first up where he finished third, was two seconds slower than Clairvoyance. Great value place bet at $3 (though I assume they’re only going to pay out a place on first and second given the five horse field). Agent Kensington has been racing well with a good seconds behind Empire Reign and Madam Torio. She’s really is only in my top four though because Champagne Diva got scratched and she’s the only option left!
2 – Clairvoyance
1 – Watch Me Dance
3 – Keep Your Feet
5 – Agent Kensington

 Race 3 – Amelia Park Lodge Handicap – 1400m – 1:07pm

Serenity Bay is a force to be reckoned with! She’s yet to finish outside of the top three in her career (11:5-3-3) and it’s hard to see that changing her. She’s proven on a soft track (3:2-1-0) and loves this track/distance (3:2-0-1). With Pike in Melbourne, Jarrad takes the ride, but this horse should make her own luck. She has a good turn of foot and hopefully, she won’t get too far back and stuck on the rail from that barrier. Position Of Power finished second to Serenity Bay last start but actually has to give her 1.5kg despite that result. Like her, he also loves the soft (5:2-2-1) and track/distance (3:2-1-0), which is going to make for an interesting race. The only real difference between my top two tips is that this horse has drawn wider and might be at a disadvantage if he gets too far back. He’s a serious threat though! Not To Be Mist is a punter’s worst nightmare. He seems to have so much ability but can’t find the finish line. He was disappointing last start but there were a few excuses in the stewards’ report. Dropping back to 1400m should benefit, especially as he likes like distance (6:4-1-0). He also drops down in class but only increases 1.5kg on last start. It’s a classy race but he can win without surprising. Snowchino looked to have found the 1000m too short last start, so stepping up in distance should help. She only has to carry 59kg with Chloe’s claim and looks to be the leader in this race. The soft conditions will suit her (9:4-2-1) and she won a listed race last preparation in December. Her second up record certainly isn’t the best (4:0-0-1) but she should run a good race.
6 – Serenity Bay
5 – Position Of Power
2 – Not To Be Mist
1 – Snowchino

Race 4 – Crown Perth Handicap – 2000m – 1:47pm

Burning Pride won in a nice fashion last start. She seemed to really appreciate these longer distances and perhaps even the soft track. Jarrad takes over from Pike but did ride this horse two starts ago when she finished second. Her only bad run this preparation was when she was first up and looked to have gotten too far back, so just put a line through that run. This does look to be a more competitive race on paper, but she should be in the finish once again. Noir De Rue is also no stranger to this distance. He’s a horse that just keeps plodding along, though did record a win at this track and distance four starts ago. He looks to be the leader with Saxon Saxoff, which does make me nervous over these distances. He’s only bad run this preparation was in the group 3 Strickland Stakes where he was probably just outclassed. There are a few very good horses in this race but if he brings that form behind Material Man he could be a sneaky chance. The Big Show is a horse we haven’t seen since April, besides that one trial leading into this race. That trial wasn’t anything spectacular and it probably was too short for him. It’s interesting that connections are jumping straight up to 2000m for his first race, but perhaps there wasn’t anything else suitable. The 60kg from that barrier over this distance looks to be a tough ask but he did win from out wide with 60kg over 1800m last preparation. His first up record is good (4:1-0-1) and he has placed on a soft track before (1:0-0-1). He should only improve off this run. Prince Turbo has finally drawn a better barrier, which should help him extremely here. His track record (8:0-0-1) and soft track record (2:0-0-0) are red flags for me, but he’s coming off a very good summer, compared to last year when he had had 18 months away from the track. Stepping up in distance should benefit as it will only give him more time to catch them, plus he drops 3.5kg off last start. Hopefully the 2019 summer Prince Turbo turns up here.
4 – Burning Pride
2 – Noir De Rue
1 – The Big Show
5 – Double Digit

Race 5 – Mrs Mac’s Handicap – 1650m – 2:23pm

Montelena seems to be in for a good preparation! She tackled the listed races earlier this year but perhaps just weren’t ready for them yet. Considering that she went into this preparation without a trial, she should be fit now being fourth up. She jumps up in class and hence doesn’t receive any extra weight for last start’s win. The distance and barrier should suit and she handles the soft track (3:1-0-1). This is another winnable race for her. Aconite finished second to Montelena last start but is actually 1kg worst off. There’s really not much to complain or rave about with his runs; he just always puts in a good performance. He likes this track/distance (4:1-1-1), which is evident from his previous two runs. The only reason he’s not on top is I just think that Montelena is a slightly better horse than him. Stormy Ruler has drawn an absolutely shocking barrier which is certainly not going to help him here. He can run on, but there’s always the chance that you’ll get stuck in traffic. Chris Parnham looks to have chosen my top tip over this horse, which is always a good indicating, though Kyra has been riding extremely well lately, so don’t take anything away from her. 1400m looks to be his ideal distance, though I don’t think 1600m is completely out of his reach. The biggest thing in his favour is his soft track record (7:2-2-1). Wee Ripper is one horse who probably would have liked to have drawn slightly wider than barrier one, just so he had a few more options. There’s not much speed in the race, but a few may cross him, which could result in him getting stuck back on the fence if he doesn’t jump well. He’ll absolutely handle the distance but may be outclassed.
4 – Montelena
2 – Aconite
3 – Stormy Ruler
11 – Wee Ripper

Race 6 – Happy 60th Birthday Ron Gajewski Handicap – 1000m – 3:05pm

Mini Winnie is an absolute outside but I’m willing to take a chance. We haven’t seen him at the track in nine months, but prior to that his career statistics were very good (5:1-2-1). He hasn’t had a trial leading into this race, so it’s really hard to tell where he’s at fitness wise. He did have a good turn of foot though and did handle the soft track (2:1-0-1) prior to his break. If he performs at that sort of level here, he could surprise. Weaponson has been racing above my expectations this preparation and handled the soft track very well. He’s drawn a stick barrier, but he does have a senior jockey in Joey to guide him. He loves this distance (3:2-1-0) and will no doubt be in the finish. I’ll be looking to make it back to back wins as an owner! Super Ex put in a really nice run at his first up performance in WA. He should only improve off that run, plus his second up record is good (3:1-0-1). Combined with his soft track record (4:2-0-2) and the fact that he’ll only carry 57kg with Madi’s claim, it’s not a surprise to see him starting as favourite. He can win without surprising. Abby Lane is a bit more of an outside, but I really liked his previous two runs. He showed a great turn of foot, finishing third to Inspirational Girl. Given that he can run on, he should be able to overcome that wide barrier, though dropping back to 1000m is an interesting choice given how well he’s been racing at 1200/1400m. As the old wives take goes, back a grey on a wet track. He rounds out a very competitive race!
11 – Mini Winnie
4 – Weaponson
2 – Super Ex
10 – Abby Lane

Race 7 – Heineken – Belmont Newmarket – 1200m – 3:45pm

Free Trade has just come back in a fabulous fashion and boy he’s a horse you’d love to own! He’s yet to finish outside of the top three in his career and this doesn’t look like it’s going to change here, winning two trials leading into this race. He has a great first up record (3:1-2-0) and he’ll handle the soft track without any issues (5:3-1-1). If I’m being extra picky the weight is my only concern but really, it’s his race to lose. Essential Spice has been racing very consistently herself, recording a win, second and third this preparation. She finished third to Floyd last start and gets 2kg on him as a result. She’s drawn a bit wide, but she does handle a soft track (9:3-4-1). If this race was over 1000m I think it would be a different story, but she seems vulnerable over 1200m. Multiverse brings different form lines to this race compared to my top three tips. He’s been racing consistently with form behind Red Can Man and Windstorm. He’s no stranger to this track/distance (13:7-1-3) and again likes the rain (7:3-0-3). As long as he can settle into a forward position, he should run a place. Pym’s Royale was disappointing first up but went into that race without a trial, so I except him to improve here. If we look back to this time last year, he actually finished second to Essential Spice, where he carried 4.5kg more than her, compared to here where he carries 3kg less. His second up record is good (5:2-1-0) and he’s placed on a soft track before (4:1-0-2). He does face some very good horses here though!
1 – Free Trade
3 – Essential Spice
7 – Multiverse
8 – Pym’s Royale

Race 8 – Vale Marjorie Charleson Handicap – 1200m – 4:25pm

Cliffs Of Comfort finished third to Silknize last start (who he gets 1kg on here) but I do worry that perhaps he doesn’t perform at his best on a soft track, especially as the rain would have well and truly set in by now. I’m hoping that he just had to use a bit too much early on last start to get to the front but that he’s drawn better here, so that hopefully won’t be a problem. Stepping up in distance should definitely help and he’s yet to taste defeat second up (1:1-0-0). Looking for him to bounce back here. Silknize is a huge threat to my top tip and can win easily. He just swims through these soft conditions and won’t be worried at all if the track is a little worse for wear by now. His turn of foot two starts ago behind Long Beach was fantastic, plus that is pretty good form. The only very small question marks are that Joey picked my top tip over him and that this horse may be better suited over 1000m. Great win value! Jericho Missile is bypassing the feature race, but this race certainly isn’t any easier! He only has to carry 57kg with Laqdar’s claim which puts him back in the race. He came from last to finish second last on a soft track, but then didn’t handle the conditions the start before that. At least he has a good barrier, so he won’t get too far back. Bel My Pago is what you call a wet track specialised, with a fantastic soft track record (4:1-3-0). He’s track/distance record (2:1-1-0) and third up (4:1-2-0) are also in his favour. Combined with the good turn of foot this preparation and getting a senior jockey on board for the first time this preparation should all benefit. Great value if you ask me!
12 – Cliffs Of Comfort
10 – Silknize
2 – Jericho Missile
11 – Bel My Pago

Race 9 – Go Racing For Free Before The Footy Handicap – 1300m – 5:05pm

Ohbeed steps up in class but looks to be a good value tip. It would have been nice to see a bit of weight relief with the step up in class, but he does just carry 56.5kg with Chloe’s claim. There looks to be a few horses wanting to go forward, so I’m hoping that he just one back one off ideally. He’s yet to finish outside the top three this preparation and handles the soft track (3:1-1-1). Last time he was at this track and distance he won so I’m hoping that’s the case again here. Devoted Star is a horse that puzzles me. She won in an incredible fashion first up, with a great turn of foot, but then failed to fire last start. There were a few excuses in the stewards’ report, but I still would have liked her to have performed better. She’s had nearly a month since her last race, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as she does race better when she’s fresh. She’s drawn wide but if the winning version of her turns up, she’ll be right in this. Inflation does have a jockey change, with Chris choosing Devoted Star over this horse. He’s been racing consistently, and I think keeping him at this distance was a smart move by Darren as this is when his best work (6:2-1-2). The form surrounding his last two races is particularly strong, especially as he led all the way. I except that to be the same case here, which shouldn’t be too hard from that barrier. It’s been a long time between drinks but no reason he shouldn’t run a good race. Double The Pro certainly wasn’t at his best last start, but I’m willing to forgive that run given how he’d been racing prior to that. He particularly showed a good turn of foot two starts ago, which may prove deadly here as long as he can get out. With his soft track record (4:2-0-1) he seems to be flying a bit under the radar. Great value!
6 – Ohbeed
10 – Devoted Star
5 – Inflation
3 – Double The Pro


Best Bet

Race 7 – Free Trade

Confidence rating

My confidence isn’t actually too bad, as I feel like my top tips should at least place. This weather does have a habit of throwing surprises though! My confidence definitely decreases as the day goes on, as I’m mostly concerned about races 3, 6, 8 and 9. I’ve gone for value in race 6 too, so I’m hoping that pays off! Either way, I hope it’s a winning day as an owner and tipster!

Last Week’s Results

R6-boxed first four
R7-exacta
Winners in top 4 – 5/9
Top picks:-, 3rd, -, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, –
Best bet: 3rd
Profit: -3.4

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