Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 14/08/2021

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 20 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – Amelia Park Lodge Plate – 1400m – 11:42pm

3 – Secret Deploy
2 – Success Play
7 – Flower In The Wind
5 – Born To Be Lucky

Comment: Secret Deploy has had three trials this preparation. The trial two trials ago was disappointing, but this could be put down to jockey error. Clint jumps back on board here and he’s drawn nicely in barrier 3. He’ll only improve off this run. Success Play was thought to be good enough by connections to race in the 2-year-old Magic Millions race earlier in the year, however, it wasn’t his day. He tried nicely leading into his first up race, where the heavy track may have just gotten the better of him. There is good form surrounding that race though. He’s up ever so slightly in distance, but there is a question over whether he’ll handle the track. Flower In The Wind showed a good turn of foot last start on a soft track. That was her first start, so she should improve here. Conditions look to be pretty similar here and the extra 100m should benefit her. There’s no reason why she can’t win here. Born To Be Lucky does like to get back in her runs. From barrier 5, she might be able to settle slightly further forward and this could lead to a better run. All of her runs have been on a soft or heavy track, so she should handle that here. It’s just a question of class.

Suggested bet: Secret Deploy, Success Play, Flower In The Wind and Born To Be Lucky – each way

Race 2 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Handicap – 2100m – 12:22pm

5 – Zaratite
4 – Treasured Crown
2 – Bella’s Idol
1 – Come Play With Me

Comment: Zaratite is still knocking on the door for that win. He finally gets some weight on Treasured Crown and I’m hoping that will be the winning difference, considering that they’ll both get an ideal run. He’s won at this track/distance (2:1-1-) and a soft track (7:3-4-0). Hopefully, the track does say in the soft range too, because Treasured Crown is better suited to a heavy track compared to this horse. It could be another two-horse race. Treasured Crown has beaten Zaratite at his past two starts but has to give him 2.5kg here. This horse is unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0) and as I mentioned, if the rain comes, then this horse will be a huge threat! Bella’s Idol came last in a four-horse race last start. He gets 3.5kg on Treasured Crown here as a result though. He’s drawn wide, with not a lot of speed in the race, he should easily get to the front. He’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0) but has placed on a soft track (7:0-2-1). It’s hard to see him turn the tables though. Come Play With Me returned to trials twice after being disappointing at his last two runs. Those trials were good, but we have seen that in the past where he trials well but fails to fire race day. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and does love a soft track though (9:3-2-0).

Suggested bet: Zaratite and Treasured Crown – quinella

Race 3 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1400m – 1:02pm

2 – Blazing Away
1 – Speedy Miss
4 – Looks Like Magic
3 – Beat The Bell

Comment: Blazing Away is looking to make it three wins in a row here. He’s up in class and probably had an ideal run at those starts, especially given those runs were on a heavy track. From barrier 7, I think they’ll elect to go forward. His soft track record does make me nervous (2:0-0-0), but he can handle a wet track, as shown with his heavy track record (3:2-0-1). There is just a question mark over the class. Speedy Miss has always been in the finish this preparation, except for last start where she raced wide the whole time. Kristy jumps back on board, which means she only has to carry 58kg. She loves this track/distance (8:2-3-1) and has won on a soft track (11:2-2-1). She’s a winning chance, especially if my top tip doesn’t handle the class. Looks Like Magic is coming off a win over 1200m. The form surrounding that race is good and she did come from last (6th) on a heavy 10 track. She’s up in distance but has placed at this track/distance before (3:0-0-1). Her soft track record is quite good too (9:1-1-2), plus she’s third up, so should be hitting her peak fitness wise. I’m curious to see how she goes.  Beat The Bell just got way too far back last start, so put a line through that run. She‘s first up here, which doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence (5:1-0-0), especially as she hasn’t had a trial leading into this run. However, her track/distance record is good (5:1-1-1). She could surprise.

Suggested bet: Blazing Away, Speedy Miss and Looks Like Magic – each way

Race 4 – Silk Veneer Panels Handicap – 1400m – 1:42pm

3 – Nobel Laurence
2 – No Apology
4 – Miss Maranta
1 – Ouqba Ted

Comment: Nobel Laurence has shown a good turn of foot at all two starts this preparation. He came into this preparation without a trial, so would have taken great fitness from those runs. He’s yet to race at this track/distance but has previously won at Belmont (2:1-1-0) and 1400m (4:2-0-0). The biggest thing in his favour is the Pike jumps on and he’s unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0). I think he’s a touch vulnerable at $1.95, but I’m not surprised to see him that short. No Apology’s trial leading into this race wasn’t that flashy, but he has won first up before (5:1-0-1). He’s yet to place at this distance (3:0-0-0) and is probably looking for a touch further, but at least he has won on a soft track (4:1-1-1) and has drawn perfectly in barrier 4. Watch out for him next start. Miss Maranta just found a couple better last start and may not have liked racing on the speed or the heavy 10 track. From barrier 1, she may be in the first half, with a few horses looking like they want to cross her. She’s won at this track/distance (5:2-0-1) and on a soft track (9:2-1-2). She’s great value! Ouqba Ted put in a nice trial behind Indian Pacific leading into this race. He does only have to carry 57kg with Laqdar’s claim, but all of his statistics aren’t exactly in his favour. He could surprise but look for him next start over more distance.

Suggested bet: Nobel Laurence, No Apology and Miss Maranta – each way

Race 5 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1000m – 2:22pm

5 – Strathmore Rose
1 – First Law
2 – Olga Lousia
6 – Bedouin Belle

Comment: Strathmore Rose finished a narrow second to Blazing Billy last start and gets 3kg on him here, which is partly due to Madi’s claim. She’s yet to place second up (2:0-0-0), but her form suggests that can change here. She loves a soft track (5:3-1-0) and has placed at this track/distance (3:0-2-0). I think the weight and barrier are hopefully going to help her turn the tables. First Law finished third to Blazing Billy last start, with this race looking like a good one to follow form wise, and he gets 1.5kg on him here. His track/distance record (3:1-0-1) and soft track record are all in his favour (3:1-0-1). He’s hard to fault. Olga Louisa can be hit and miss, but it’s safe to say that 1000m is her pet distance. There’s no doubt that she will be leading too. She has won at this track/distance (8:2-0-1) and would have preferred a heavy track over a soft track by a long way. If it’s a leader bias day, watch out for her. Bedouin Belle has just found one or two better at her last two starts. Pike jumps off in favour of Blazing Billy (who has now been scratched) but with Laqdar riding, she only has to carry 55kg. She’s placed at this track/distance before (5:0-1-2) and on a soft track (8:0-2-3), so she should handle conditions here. I just think my top tip may be too good for her.

Suggested bet: Strathmore Rose and First Law – each way

Race 6 – Devil’s Lair Handicap – 1600m – 3:05pm

4 – Born To Try
6 – Vital Flirt
7 – Mr Mt Walker
1 – Kelly’s Callisto

Comment: Born To Try showed such an impressive turn of foot last start, winning in the process. She’s had two months since that run but does go well fresh (4:0-2-1). She didn’t place outside of the top three last preparation and it’s hard to see things changing here, as she’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and has a good soft track record (8:1-4-1). She will only improve over further, but she should run a good race here. Vital Flirt tasted defeat for the first time in four starts last start. There were a few excuses in the stewards’ report though. She’s won at this track/distance (3:1-1-0) and on a soft track (9:1-1-2). The only concern is that she’s on the one-week back-up but look for her to bounce back here. Mr Mt Walker comes out of the same race as Vital Flirt, where he finished second. He got an ideal run, so he was just beaten by a better horse on the day. He’s got good form surrounding his races this preparation, he’s placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-0) and is definitely a wet tracker (8:3-2-0). He may have to use some energy from barrier 7 to get a forward position, but he’s a cheeky chance. Kelly’s Callisto finished second to The Spruiker at his last two starts, which is good form to follow in my opinion. His track/distance record (1:0-1-0) and soft track record (3:1-0-1) are in his favour. He also only has to carry 57kg due to Victoria’s claim, which puts him back in the race. If things go his way, you can’t rule him out.

Suggested bet: Born To Try, Vital Flirt, Mr Mt Walker and Kelly’s Callisto – each way

Race 7 – Privé Fashion Platform Handicap – 1200m – 3:40pm

7 – Reign Of Fire
8 – Silkinize
1 – Don’t Fuss
4 – Cliffs Of Comfort

Comment: Reign Of Fire is coming off a nice win where he put a good gap on the rest of the field. He’s yet to place outside of the top 3 this preparation and seems to be really hitting his stride here. He’s won at this track/distance (4:2-0-0) and while he would have preferred a heavy track, he has placed on a soft track before (2:0-0-1). Silkinize had a few excuses last start, but probably was still no match for the winner. He does like to get back in his runs, which can lead to him being a hit and miss horse. From barrier 7, I suspect he’ll get back again. His soft track record is probably the biggest thing in his favour (8:1-3-1), but he has placed at this track/distance before (2:0-0-1). Don’t Fuss was narrowly defeated last start, in what was probably one of his best runs this preparation. His track/distance record could be better (4:1-0-0), but he does have a great soft track record (11:4-0-2). He also only has to carry 58.5kg due to Kristy’s claim, which puts him back in the race. Cliffs Of Comfort is another horse to have trial form lines behind Indian Pacific. All of his statistics say that he should handle everything here, including his track/distance (2:1-1-0), first up (2:1-0-1) and soft track record (3:1-1-1). The only concern is that he has drawn wide, otherwise, he should run a great race.

Suggested bet: Reign Of Fire, Silkinize, Don’t Fuss and Cliffs Of Comfort – each way

Race 8 – Heineken-Belmont Newmarket – 1200m – 4:15pm

1 – Indian Pacific
11 – Son Of A God
4 – Samizdat
5 – Western Temple

Comment: Indian Pacific’s trainer was worried about him being the favourite, given the weight he has to carry, plus the soft track. However, this horse has shown he’s ready to go here, after two good trials. He’s also unbeaten first up (3:3-0-0) and on a soft track (2:2-0-0). Combined with the fact that he’s won at this track/distance (2:1-0-1), if he can handle the weight, he’ll run a cracking race. Son Of A God finished third in a trial behind Indian Pacific. His performances last preparation and the form surrounding those runs should hold him in good stead here. He’s also won first up (3:2-0-0) and on a soft track (3:2-0-0). It’s his track/distance record (2:1-0-1) and his light weight, given his form, that makes him very competitive here. Samizdat finished 4th behind Indian Pacific by 1.1 lengths in a trial leading into this race. I thought he was going to need a touch further to see his full ability, but he did win a listed race in January over 1200m. He’s also won first up before (6:3-0-0) and at this track/distance (4:2-0-0). However, it’s the soft track that will be the biggest thing in his favour (5:3-0-1). He can win without surprising. Western Temple put in a good performance first up, seeing as he went into that race without a trial. His second up record is significantly better (9:2-4-2) and he’s proven on a soft track (6:1-1-1). My only concern is how far back he’s going to get from barrier 11 and how hard it is going to be to run on by this time of the day. He’s good value though.

Suggested bet: Indian Pacific, Son Of A God, Samizdat and Western Temple – each way

Race 9 – Happy 60th Birthday Mark Walker Handicap – 1600m – 4:55pm

2 – Red Hot Tip
10 – Brave Dream
9 – Hip Wiggle
6 – Cape Reign

Comment: Red Hot Tip has had two really nice trials leading into this race. They were over 1450m and 1100m, which suggests that this distance won’t be too short for him. He is yet to win on a soft track (4:0-1-1) and the 60kg looks to be a big ask, but he should run a cheeky race. Brave Dream does like to get back in his runs, but she can run on to some extent. I’m not sure Belmont is her favourite track (5:0-0-1), but she is proven on a soft track (5:1-0-2). Pike jumps off in favour of Aberdeen Queen and this horse is going to get back from barrier 9, but I wouldn’t rule her out. Hip Wiggle can be hit and miss, but I do like her form four starts ago where she beat Speedy Miss. From barrier 8, she’ll need to use a bit of energy early to get to the front. She has won at this track/distance (4:2-0-0) and she has a great soft track record (7:1-3-1). She’s great value! Cape Reign appreciated the drop in class last start, coming out and winning. I think he prefers to race from the back as well. He’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0), but he has won at this distance (4:1-1-0). He also only has to carry 55kg due to Laqdar’s claim, which is 4kg less than last start. He rounds out a very even race!

Suggested bet: Red Hot Tip, Brave Dream, Hip Wiggle and Cape Reign – each way


Best Bet

Race 4 – Nobel Laurence

Confidence rating

My confidence is up and down this week. Races 3, 5 and 7 I’m nervous about, while races 6 and 9 look to be a nightmare to tip and I’ve gone for a bit of value. Lastly, I’m worried about race 8 and Indian Pacific, just because Neville Parnham wasn’t confident. There’s no doubt about the horse’s ability though. Fingers crossed for a profit!

Last Week’s Results

R6-boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4: 6/9
Top picks: -, 1st, 1st, -, -, 3rd, 1st, -, 3rd
Best bet: 1st
Profit: +3.8 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)

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