Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 13/07/2019

Conditions

Rail – 5m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – max 19 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Glory Glory Plate – 1000m – 12:34pm

Hooroo Lads won first up and I’m excited to see what he can do here. Mia Dolce has been going very well and I can’t see any reason she won’t win again. Laverrod was scratched last time when I had him in my top 3 and still deserves that spot. He should definitely have fitness on his side. Significant Hero trialled well, and it would be no surprise if he won. No matter what happens here he could be one to follow in the future.
2 – Hooroo Lads
1 – Mia Dolce
4 – Laverrod
6 – Significant Hero

Race 2 – Vale Bruno Tognini Handicap – 1000m – 1:14pm

This is not an overly strong race and it was hard to pick a top 4. Metro Boy trialled well, and first up record is ok (2:0-0-2). Glasgow Girl has been performing ok but does step down in distance here. She’s never won at this distance but has placed at all starts at this distance (3:0-2-1). Shinju is first up in WA and I’ll be looking to see if he can handle running in the opposite direction. Apollo was second to Spirit and Fire two starts ago who came out and won last Saturday. If he doesn’t get too far back, he should do ok.
4 – Metro Boy
3 – Glasgow Girl
10 – Shinju
5 – Apollo

Race 3 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1200m – 1:54pm

Festival Miss is just a very strong filly with good form. The only negative is that Kirby (an apprentice) replaces Pike. I liked how Lipstick Flickers attacked the line last start. She has a spotless track and distance record (2:2-0-0), so it would be no surprise if she won here. Flower of War was going well before last start but she’s back to a shorter distance, so I’ll forgive that run. Another spotless distance (2:2-0-0) and good track (4:4-0-0) record. Any of my top 3 picks could win. Essential Spice doesn’t face a great horse in Samizdat here like her past 2 starts so should go well here.
2 – Festival Miss
6 – Lipstick Flickers
3 – Flower of War
5 – Essential Spice

Race 4 – Swan River Vase – 2200m – 2:34pm

Class alone should see Gatting winning, especially with no Galaxy Star in the race. Come Play with Me is a real threat. He’s just flying lately and can’t see why he can’t win again here. I’m not sure what happened to Eye Art last start, however, I’m willing to forgive given that he loves distance. Mr Alby seems to go better over this distance. The question is whether he can lead and hold on.
1 – Gatting
2 – Come Play with Me
7 – Eye Art
5 – Mr Alby

Race 5 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 3:10pm

This was the hard race of the day to tip. Fred Dag was impressive two starts ago coming from the back on a heavy track. He has the class coming second in the Lex Piper and is two for two third up. Coming Around is a very consistent horse, only placing outside the top 4 once. He also has form behind Flirtini and Mystery Miss. Something has seemed to just clicked in Mankind, but I would have liked it if the track was soft or heavy for him. Distant Trilogy had a very good turn of foot against Fred Dag two starts ago, however there is a 2kg swing here though and he also goes better on a soft and heavy track.
4 – Fred Dag
7 – Coming Around
9 – Mankind
3 – Distant Trilogy

Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 3:45pm

Free Trade is a very good horse and has a 1.5kg swing on Stageman. There is a change of jockey but Yuill has won on him before. Stageman got too far back two starts ago, so I’ll forgive that run. My question is whether he can carry the 60kg. I would love to see what Pym’s Royale can do if he settles a bit further forward in the field. He has a good track and distance record though (3:1-0-2). Chix Pic just hasn’t come back as good this preparation and I’ll be looking for improvement.
10 – Free Trade
1 – Stageman
4 – Pym’s Royale
2 – Chix Pic

Race 7 – Chanelle Galante 30th Birthday Handicap – 1600m – 4:20pm

Going against all my superstitions and putting The Velvet King on top. He has the form and class here. My biggest concern is the wide draw. I’ve underestimated Nikitas before and not willing to do it again. I did originally have him on top, but he’s never placed at this distance in his 3 tries. Double Digit ran third to The Velvet King last start and I can’t see him turning the tables. Touch of Silver should appreciate the extra 200m compared to last start.
3 – The Velvet King
2 – Nikitas
8 – Double Digit
1 – Touch of Silver

Race 8 – Gareth Hall Farewell Handicap – 1600m – 4:55pm

I’ve always been a supporter of Lordhelpmerun. He was unlucky not to win last start (haha says the owner of The Velvet King) and should go well here. An interesting thing to note was that he was also nominated for the race that The Velvet King is in but elected to go this way instead. Playing Marika is a consistent horse who showed an impressive turn of foot last start. Her track record is also good (3:1-1-1). I had Defiantly in my top 4 last start. I should have backed myself more, which I’m going to do here. She’s going well this preparation but is sometimes hit and miss. Deimos was my best bet last start but didn’t get there. I’m willing to give him another shot.
1 – Lordhelpmerun
16 – Playing Marika
10 – Defiantly
7 – Deimos



Best Bet

Race 8 – Lordhelpmerun

Confidence rating

There are some very evenly matched races today and I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a few upsets. For this reason, my confidence is low.

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