Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 13/06/2020

Conditions

Rail – 8m
Track – Soft 6
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, shower or two

Race 1 – Mrs Mac’s Plate – 1000m – 11:27pm

Bumper Humper won at her only start last preparation after winning all of her trials leading into that race. She looks to have come back just as good, winning a 400m trial on a soft track. She clearly has ability and should handle a soft track based on her trials. Nuhad had been improving with each trial before coming out and winning first up. That win was on a soft track, so that shouldn’t be a problem here. She’s drawn wide but with Pike in the saddle she should only improve with one run under her belt. Born To Rule trialled really well, winning two over 400m, before finishing third behind Dunbar on a soft 7 track. This looks like pretty good form to follow, especially given that Dunbar didn’t beat her by too much. She’s another horse that will appreciate having the race day experience. Convention finished seventh to Bumper Humper at their only start. She gets 2kg on her here and may not have suited leading at that start. From the wide barrier she may have to settle further back, so I’d be interested to see how she finishes from there, especially given her nice trial on Monday.
1 – Bumper Humper
6 – Nuhad
7 – Born To Rule
8 – Convention

Race 2 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1200m – 12:07pm

Tajmali had been racing really well in Kalgoorlie and then backed that up with a win at Belmont. She’s arguably in career best form and while this looks to be her toughest race to date, she’s drawn well and gets Pike in the saddle. Nerodio has pretty good career statistics (10:4-0-4) and added to that tally with a win first up last start. He seems to possess a good turn of foot and goes well second up (2:1-0-1). The only thing going against him in the 60kg and wide barrier, though he did finish third with 61kg from the same barrier last preparation. Captain Kink was disappointing last start after missing the start and not getting to lead. If he jumps well he should be able to get to the front easily from that barrier, especially with only 54kg on his back due to Jade’s claim. If things go his way then he’s definitely in this. Bruce Almighty has form behind some good horses. He’s always in the finish and he should be there once again. His soft track record isn’t the best (3:0-0-1) but he should appreciate stepping back to 1200m.
4 – Tajmali
1 – Nerodio
6 – Captain Kink
2 – Bruce Almighty

Race 3 – Perth Racing At Home Handicap – 1000m – 12:47pm

Miss Frost is a very consistent horse with a tonne of ability. She’s drawn the best she has for a while and doesn’t increase too badly in the weights. She has a good turn of foot and her soft track record is alright (2:0-1-1). She’s Enchanted could very well give my top tip a run for her money. She finished a close second behind Bright Diamond who looks to be a very good horse. She then won at her second start. The biggest positive is her versatility with where she can sit in the race. No matter what the result is here, keep an eye out for her in the future. Downforce should be able to hold his own here, despite having never raced on a soft track. He was slightly disappointing last start and without having watched the replay, he may have got stuck in traffic. His second up record is good (2:1-0-1) so look for him to bounce back here. Missing Pro is a bit of a hit and miss horse but has been racing well this preparation. However, she does step up in class and may find my top two picks hard to run down.
5 – Miss Frost
12 – She’s Enchanted
3 – Downforce
6 – Missing Pro

Race 4 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1300m – 1:27pm

This is probably the evenest top four I’ve ever seen and highly recommend not betting in this race, unless you’re doing a boxed first four. Aberdeen Queen has won her previous three races, including beating Levitate last start. She does have to give him 1kg because of that result and she’s also drawn the widest of my top four picks. However, she has a great turn of foot and is unbeaten on a soft track (2:2-0-0). Indian Pacific has fantastic career statistics (4:3-0-1) and can win this hand down. He beat Windstorm last start, who looks to be a horse with ability. From that barrier, he should be able to get to the front easily and give them all something to run down. Resortman was no match for Showmanship last start and did a few things wrong in that race. I imagine he’ll be wanting to lead with Indian Pacific and may settle just outside of him. At least we know he’ll handle the 1300m having won at 1400m, compared to some of these horses who have only won at 1200m. Levitate may be fourth on my list but still can easily win this. He’s arguably faced better horses earlier in his career but still has only placed outside the top three once (6:2-2-1). He also drops 3.5kg off last starts run, gets Pike in the saddle and has drawn well.
4 – Aberdeen Queen
1 – Indian Pacific
2 – Resortman
3 – Levitate

Race 5 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1300m – 2:07pm

Windstorm looks to be very well placed in this race. He ran the fastest 600m last start finishing second while carrying 60.5kg. He drops 5.5kg off that run, which should help combat the wide barrier. He has a good soft track record (2:1-1-0) and should appreciate that extra 100m. Double Bubble probably would be winning this if it wasn’t for Windstorm. Her soft track record is nearly faultless (7:5-0-1) so that definitely won’t be an issue here. She does like to run near the front of the field, which may be slightly difficult from that barrier. I expect her to go well though. Kelvin suffered a bit from that wide barrier last start and doesn’t get any luck with that again here. He’ll be wanting to lead, so will need to use a bit of energy early on to get there. I find it interesting that connections have chosen to step him down in distance, though maybe this will give the other horses less time to catch him. Fire Maker loves to get back in his runs, which makes it hard to keep him out of trouble. At least from that barrier he may be able to settle slightly further forward. He’s been racing well at Pinjarra but then wasn’t so good at Ascot. Looking for him to show us that he still has that great turn of foot.
10 – Windstorm
4 – Double Bubble
3 – Kelvin
8 – Fire Maker

Race 6 – Vale Bonnie Purton Handicap – 2000m – 2:45pm

Picture Perfect won last start over 2200m on a soft 7 track, so brings confidence into this race. Like my tips in this race, he’s drawn extremely wide. However, as long as he doesn’t get any further back than mid-field he should be fine. Given that he’s won over 1800m this preparation too dropping back to 2000m shouldn’t be a problem. Divine Shadow finished second to Picture Perfect last start and third to him second the race before that but surprisingly has to give him 1.5kg here. Having drawn outside him, I expect them to be close together in running. He’s been racing very consistently and hasn’t finished outside the top three in his previous five starts. Winning chance. Noir De Rue brings slightly different form, coming out of Freezem’off’s race. She has a pretty good soft track record (9:1-2-3) and dropping back to 2000m should also benefit. However, I’m worried that 60kg from that barrier may take its toll. British Bessy was outclassed in the Perth Cup earlier this year but has since bounced back. She’s drawn nicely in barrier 2 and won’t be too concerned if a few horses cross her as she does like to race from the back. This does leave the door open to get stuck in traffic but if she can get out and use that turn of foot she could surprise.
4 – Picture Perfect
3 – Divine Shadow
2 – Noir De Rue
8 – British Bessy

Race 7 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1400m – 3:25pm

Serenity Bay is yet to finish outside the top three in her career (7:3-3-1). She also has a good first up record (2:1-1-0) which should continue as she’s won a trial leading into this race and she finished third to Flower of War last preparation. There’re a few good chances in this race but Pike looks to be in for a good day. Costa Del Santo is a great each way bet. He’s in career best form and just seems to run for Mitchell. He may be another victim of a wide barrier but he has the turn of foot to overcome this. He comes off a nice win last start and 1400-1600m seems to be his ideal distance. Sublime Image may be looking for a touch further given that she’s won over 1600m multiple times last preparation. She also has good career statistics (6:3-1-1) and has won from a wide barrier before. My only concern is that she hasn’t shown much in her two trials. Proconsent has really only had the one bad run this preparation, where he looked to be inconvenienced in the straight. He bounced back from that to win two in a row. Combined with his good soft track record (3:2-0-0) and track/distance record (1:1-0-0), he could run a cheeky race if the 61kg doesn’t become too much.
13 – Serenity Bay
2 – Costa Del Santo
7 – Sublime Image
1 – Proconsent

Race 8 – Seacorp – Hyperion Stakes – 1600m – 4:05pm

Angelic Ruler looked to be the winner last start but then hit an invisible brick wall. She’s probably better over 1400m but has stretched out to the mile before. Universal Ruler horses are known to appreciate the soft tracks and her Melbourne class can see her winning this. Gatting will only get better as he steps up in distance. As much as it pains me to say, I think he’s better suited to this race than The Velvet King. He loves a soft track (7:2-1-2) and it won’t bother him if the track is a bit choppy by now. He won the Makybe Diva Stakes over this distance, which is class TVK just doesn’t have. He was finishing off the Belmont Sprint nicely and getting Kyra on board is a huge positive. The Velvet King loves a soft track too (5:3-1-0) but I feel he’s a bit more vulnerable over 1600m, compared to his pet distance of 1400m. I’m hoping with maturity he’ll find stretching out to the mile a bit easier but if he misses the start it’s going to be hard. However, Darren’s got a few tricks up his sleeve to make sure he jumps well. He can win but things need to go his way. Mississippi Delta is another horse that will appreciate stepping up in distance. She’s drawn much better this time so should be able to settle into a more forward position. She ran the fastest 600m in the Belmont Sprint and this may prove to be deadly. Never rule out a Pike/Peters/Williams horse in a big feature race.
12 – Angelic Ruler
3 – Gatting
7 – The Velvet King
11 – Mississippi Delta

Race 9 – Seppelt Wines Handicap – 1200m – 4:42pm

Not To Be Mist improved with each trial over 1100m which is good to see. He’s yet to race on a soft track, so that does have a question mark over it. However, his first up record (3:2-0-1) and class should see him winning this. Looking for Pike to end the day on a winning note. Forceful was super disappointing first up, especially after finishing third in a listed race last preparation. He was then sent back to trials where he passed with flying colours. This distance may be a touch too short for him, but he’s unbeaten on a soft track (2:2-0-0). Super Maxi is an interesting horse, as his races are usually well spaced, only having the one run last preparation. However, this spacing does suggest that maybe he’s been facing physical problems. He was good first up on a soft track carrying 61kg, so those conditions don’t look to be a problem here. His soft and heavy track record is also good. Multiverse has had nearly nine months off from racing, so I do question how fit he is, given that he’s just had the one trial. However, that trial was good, and he finished third in two listed races last preparation over 1200m and 1300m. He has a soft track record in his favour (6:3-0-2) but terrible first up record (5:1-0-0). He may be a watch and see horse.
12 – Not To Be Mist
6 – Forceful
5 – Super Maxi
8 – Multiverse


Best Bet

Race 5 – Windstorm

Confidence rating

There quite a few swimmers racing today so that makes for an interesting day. Races 1, 2 and 3 looks to be a battle between my top two picks, while I would avoid race 4 completely and maybe race 6. I’m also hoping that I’m wrong in race 8 and that The Velvet King does win, however, I think he’s been watching too many of Tom Melbourne’s replays!

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