Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 12/09/2020

Conditions

Rail – 6m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Tabtouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1000m – 12:03pm

Mystic Love is one of two maidens in this race. She’s four and only now just having her first start, but hopefully that means she’s fully matured and nothing will phase her here. Her two trials have been good, though both were on a soft track. Besides that, I’m not really sure what drew me towards her, especially as she’s drawn wide as well, but I’m going to stick with my gut. The field is pretty even so I’m happy to take the chance. Petite La Femme has been racing consistently, though has had a few hiccups along the way. Her track/distance record is good (4:0-2-0) and she’s placed behind some good horses. Question mark over whether she’d be better over 1200m and whether she’ll have to use too much energy to get a forward position. Looking to get her maiden win (6:0-3-1). At War put in some nice performances last preparation. He might not get the lead as easily this time around, with Can’t Help Myself looking to go forward too. From barrier 1 he should be able to at least get a forward position if he jumps well. His trial was a bit disappointing, especially compared to his previous preparation. Looking for him to have matured and improved off that trial, especially with a good first up record (2:0-1-1). Harissa beat Mystic Love in the trial leading into this race. Her races last preparation wasn’t that great, but she did finish second at her first race so obviously goes well fresh. That second place was also over this distance, so at least this won’t be too short for her. Hopefully she has matured over the break.
8 – Mystic Love
3 – Petite La Femme
1 – At War
5 – Hariasa

Race 2 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Plate – 1600m – 12:43pm

It’s A Lance finished off the race quite strongly at his first start after getting back a bit worse than mid-field. He jumps up significantly in distance (1200m to 1600m) but given last start, this does look to benefit him. He’s drawn wide, but with the small field he won’t get back any further than last start. Looking for him to improve with one race under his belt. Under The Radar looked to be outclassed in her maiden race in the group 3 Gimcrack, so put a line through that race. This preparation she’s coming off some nice trials and had been racing well in Kalgoorlie and Northam, recording a second and a third. This should all help to improve her confidence. Her barrier and weight also make her extra competitive. She can easily get her first win on the board here. Regal Dividend has been improving with each run, recording a win last start, which is always great to see for connections. She only has to carry 52.5kg with Laqdar’s claim and has a nice barrier too. With those factors she should be able to get to the front easily, with Snip’n’tuck just sitting outside of her. She’s yet to race in the city but certainly won’t be out of place! Surveillance has been a hit and miss this preparation, he’s shown us glimpses of ability but then fails to bring that to his next start. The form surrounding his races is probably some of the best compared to others in this race and being ridden from the back of the field seemed to have benefited him last start. Interestingly too, he’s got a new gear piece with the tongue control bit going on. This combined with the step up in distance may just give him the winning edge.
3 – It’s A Lance
8 – Under The Radar
6 – Regal Dividend
1 – Surveillance

Race 3 – Old Mate’s Sports Bar And Eatery Handicap – 1600m – 1:19pm

Leading Girl looks to be very well suited here. All her runs this preparation have been good, with her running on from the back quite well. Statistically, she has a lot in her favour too, with a great track/distance record (2:1-0-1) and has only placed outside the top three once in her career (9:3-3-2). She drops 3.5kg from last start due to the increase in class, but those lower class races were filled with fantastic horses. She’s drawn slightly sticky in barrier seven, but she’s proven that she can overcome this. She deserves to be the short-priced favourite she is. Juicing Carrots was a bit disappointing last start but did have a few excuses in the stewards’ report. He’s on the one-week backup so must have pulled up alright. He also gets a better barrier and gets Kyra back on board, who he just seems to run for. He does step back up in class, which is the reason for the weight drop. However, last time he raced at this distance and class he finished second. He may just find my top tip has the ability edge over him. Noir De Rue is also on the one-week backup but does come out of a different race to Juicing Carrots. He was brave in defeat last start, finishing third behind Montelena after leading all the way with 60kg. He gets 60.5kg here but dropping down in distance should make the task a little bit easier. Having a good track here should also help, plus he has a good distance record (9:3-1-1). He should be in the finish once again. Mrs Brown’s Boy was first up last start without a trial and raced well, finishing third behind Massimo, which is pretty good form. His second up record certainly isn’t the best (7:1-1-0), but based off that one run, he could be in for a good preparation. With a small field, he shouldn’t get too far back despite drawing wide. He also carries 3kg more than last start due to the drop in class. He has good form surrounding his races but might just find one or two better here.
6 – Leading Girl
5 – Juicing Carrots
1 – Noir De Rue
2 – Mrs Brown’s Boy

Race 4 – Hahn Superdry-Farnley Stakes – 1400m – 1:59pm

Massimo finally managed to put two wins in a row for punters after a frustrating time of alternating firsts and seconds. This looks to be a great opportunity to get three wins in a row. He rises to listed level, which means he actually drops 4kg off last start’s win. This track/distance is probably one of his favourite combinations (3:1-2-0) and his barrier makes getting to the front quite easy as long as he jumps well. I would have been foolishly confident if he was racing on a soft track, but his good track record is nothing to laugh at (12:4-5-0). His race to lose. Harry Thomas placed in a listed races last preparation, finishing second behind Wrinkly in the Grandstand. He comes into this race without a trial, but his first up record is very good (5:1-2-1). He’s never won at this distance before (17:0-5-4), which is a little bit concerning but there’s no question mark on whether he can run it out or not. Incredible place value betting wise! Great Shot certainly wasn’t at his best last start, though the stewards’ report didn’t highlight anything that was drastically wrong. Before that run (and the trial leading into that race), he hadn’t raced for nearly twelve months so perhaps he needed that run. Despite coming last, he has to carry an extra 3kg (62kg), which won’t make this race easy. He’s a group one winner and if he can bounce back to that, he could give this race a shakeup. Yeah Dardy went into his first race without a trial, so was probably needing that run fitness wise. His second up record is good (7:1-0-2) and he placed second a listed race last preparation. He may just find my top tip a bit too classy though.
2 – Massimo
3 – Harry Thomas
1 – Great Shot
6 – Yeah Dardy

Race 5 – Amelia Park Plate – 1000m – 2:38pm

Friday Knight is one of three maiden horses in this race but absolutely must be respected from his trials alone. He’s had three trials for three wins, two of which have been this preparation, with the latest one being over 1000m, so it’s not like he’s desperately looking for more distance. He’s drawn wide but the field isn’t too big. There’s always the concern that a horse like him trials really well but then fails to fire at the races, but I’m willing to take that chance here. Brooklyn Pier should be winning purely based on his trial. Not only did he win his latest trial by 5.9L but he beat Ocean’s Fifteen in the process, who is a very good horse in my opinion. He showed us this ability at his first race earlier this year but then was probably a touch outclassed and under experienced in the group 2 Karrakatta. That’s in the distant past and like my top tip, I’d just be hoping that he can bring that trial performance here. Madam Torio has won three out of four starts this preparation. While I don’t know the racing pattern of the three maiden horses, this horse will definitely be taking up the lead. Based on previous times, it looks like she likes to set a hot tempo, which may give her an advantage here (in fact, it would be interesting to see her face Clairvoyance as they have very similar racing patterns). All three of her wins have come at this track/distance (4:3-0-0) and she’s won on a good track before (4:1-1-0), so she should handle those conditions. No reason she can’t win. Just A Pinch finished third behind Madam Torio first up. She gets 1kg on her for that result, which probably isn’t enough to make the biggest impact. All of her runs have come over this distance (3:1-0-1) and she is versatile on where she can sit in the race, which may prove valuable here. She may find one or two better but should improve off this run.
4 – Friday Knight
1 – Brooklyn Pier
2 – Madam Torio
6 – Just A Pinch

Race 6 – Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap – 1200m – 3:20pm

Nerodio has won two in a row leading into this race, which included beating Leading Girl two starts ago, which is very good form. In fact, the form surrounding all of his races has been particularly good. He’s been penalised 2kg for last start’s win, but 58.5kg isn’t a difficult task. He absolutely loves this track/distance (6:4-1-0), with the good track also in his favour. He can run on but should be able to settle mid-field once again from that barrier. Bad luck looks to be the only enemy here. Crystal Spirit has faced a few hiccups at his past two starts, with those performances certainly not what we were used to last preparation. The good news here is that he loves this track/distance (4:3-0-1) and may even appreciate running on a good track again. From that barrier, hopefully he can take up a mid-field position, as I don’t think he necessarily has that turn of foot to run on. Good place bet! Flower Of Scotland has been very kind to apprentices lately, given a couple of them their first city winner. She seems to win well at the zero metro win class races (won three in her past five starts), but then doesn’t always bring it to these Saturday class races. She gets another apprentice in Laqdar on here and only carries 58.5kg with his claim, which puts her back in the race. Her last 600m time last start was very impressive, especially with 62kg. If she can bring that performance here, she should go well. Utgard Loki burnt me a bit last start, so I was hesitant to put him that far up my list this time. His second up record is good (2:0-2-0) but I’m really surprised that they’ve dropped in down in distance when he runs so well over 2000-2200m. The 60kg is a concern once again and he’s on the one-week backup but at least he does like Belmont (3:0-1-1). I’d love for him to bounce back to his winning self (he was on fire last preparation), but I don’t think that’s going to happen till he gets over more distance.
5 – Nerodio
6 – Crystal Spirit
1 – Flower Of Scotland
3 – Utgard Loki

Race 7 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1300m – 3:55pm

Ration Aly looks to be a good horse in the making, winning her two starts this preparation. I particularly liked her turn of foot that she showed at her first up run. This race does look to be a little bit tougher in terms of competition but it’s interesting to note that she beat Super Teroitoa last start but gets 1.5kg on him here. The wide barrier is a concern but her turn of foot should help her overcome that. She’s a horse on the way up. Super Teroitoa finished second to Ration Aly has a previously mention. He is arguably in career best form, though these results have come from lower class races at Pinjarra. He generally likes to settle in the first few, so it will be interesting to see whether they use some energy early on to get that position. He only has to carry 56kg with Laqdar’s claim and has won at this track/distance previously (1:1-0-0). He’s definitely in with a chance. Tycoon Storm looks to be a horse with ability. She’s only placed outside the top three twice in her career (7:4-1-0), with one of those being where she finished fourth first up this preparation. The form surrounding her races isn’t the strongest and she may be another victim to a wide barrier. You can’t knock winning form though! Lacevinsky was disappointing first up but had plenty of excuses in the stewards’ report, so just put a line through that race. However, her second up record is good (2:1-0-0) and she definitely only improves as she gets further into her preparation. She was very consistent in the summer so can hopefully bring that form here.
8 – Ration Aly
5 – Super Teroitoa
6 – Tycoon Storm
2 – Lacevinsky

Race 8 – Budget Car & Truck Rental Handicap – 1000m – 4:30pm

Long Beach looks to be one to watch this upcoming carnival. He showed a great turn of foot last start, overcoming a wide barrier on the process. I’m hoping that this turn of foot is what will give him the ability to run down Condor Heroes and This’ll Testya. He’s unbeaten at this distance (2:2-0-0) and will definitely appreciate the good track (4:3-0-1). This is his toughest race to date. Condor Heroes is unbeaten since coming to WA, with both over those races being over 1000m. His last was particularly impressive, leading all the way to win by 4.2 lengths. The time off seems to have done him some good, coming out and winning a trial over 1000m by 5.1 lengths. His first up record is good (7:2-2-0) as is his distance record (5:2-1-0). He’s never seen Belmont on race day and has to carry 61kg but if they’re winning from the front by now, then watch out! This’ll Testya proved that she had come back just as good, winning first up. There was no way they were going to catch her last start, so it’s interesting to note that they might be taking a sit here behind Condor Heroes. From the wide barrier, that might be a smart move just to try and save a bit of energy. She’s unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). She makes it an incredible race and probably one to follow form wise going forward. Silkinize has drawn a bit of a short straw with this race being full of great horses! However, he shouldn’t be forgotten about, having yet to place outside the top three at this track/distance (4:1-2-1). With the speed in the race, he should be able to settle into a lovely position too. He can easily make this a four horse race.
2 – Long Beach
1 – Condor Heroes
5 – This’ll Testya
3 – Silknize

Race  9 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1600m – 5:10pm

Moderator surprised everyone last start when he won last start, showing a good turn of foot in the process. He’s had a few bad runs, but one of them he just got too far back. He steps up in distance but that should be a problem at this track (3:1-1-0). Yes, he’s drawn wide and the form surrounding his races could be stronger, but I’m surprised to see he’s at the odds he is. Playing Marika steps up in distance, which given where she’s been placing, I think this could be an advantage. She gets Lucy on board for the first time, with this fresh perceptive may be helping to turn this around too. There’s nothing really to complain about with her runs and she should put in another good performance too. Arnie’s Boy finished third at his last two starts, including behind Moderator last start. Despite that result he actually gives him 0.5kg here. He took a sit in both of those races which I think contributed to the improved performance, as did the better barriers. He’s drawn in a similar spot here, so should be able to run mid-field again. The very even field makes this a suitable race. Street Fair is on the one-week backup, where he probably just got a bit too far back for his liking. He’s drawn a better barrier here and drops back to 1600m, all of which should benefit him. We also saw a glimpse of a turn of foot three starts ago, so if he can bring that here, he may surprise. With a good distance record (6:0-1-3), he’d be worth a cheeky place bet.
6 – Moderator
7 – Playing Marika
9 – Arnie’s Boy
13 – Street Fair


Best Bet

Race 6 – Nerodio  

Confidence rating

It seems I’ve picked a bit of value early on, which certainly makes me nervous. However, I’m sticking with my gut so I don’t have any regrets. My confidence probably peaks in the middle of the day, while race 8 is a race I’d avoid betting in unless you’re doing a boxed trifecta. Leading Girl and Massimo would have been my other best bets, but their odds were a bit too short for me. Here’s hoping that I can get a win or two with my value tips!

Last Week’s Results

Winners in top 4 – 5/9
Top picks: 1st, -, 3rd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, -, -, –
Best bet: 3rd
Profit: -7.36

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