Belmont 12/05/2021

Conditions

Rail – 8m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, showers easing

Race 1 – Tabtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1000m – 11:17pm

3 – Bedouin Belle
6 – Express Time
7 – Snippy Miss
4 – Vital Blast

Comment: Bedouin Belle had a quiet trial leading into this race and looks to have just been beaten by a better horse. She only has to carry 57kg due to Kristy’s claim. She’s also won first up before (5:1-2-1) and place at this track/distance (2:0-0-2) and on a soft track before (6:0-2-3). Express Time was a bit disappointing first up after getting swamped. She returns to a soft track which is really going to help her chances (3:1-0-2) and she has won second up before (2:1-0-0). Look for her to bounce back here. Snippy Miss hasn’t finished that far off the winners this preparation. She’s third up here so should be spot on fitness wise and has drawn nicely in barrier 3.  In this even field, she could go close again. Vital Blast finished off last preparation strongly. He’s won a trial leading into this race and only has to carry 56kg with Kate’s claim. Areas of concern for me are his track/distance record (2:0-0-0) and soft track record (4:1-0-0).

Suggested bet: Bedouin Belle and Express Time – each way

Race 2 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Plate – 1400m – 11:57pm

2 – Guard The Safe
1 – Bandalera Beau
5 – Needs Time
3 – Disengo

Comment: Guard The Safe has been improving with each run. He placed second at this track/distance last start, so he should handle the condition.  He’s yet to race on a soft track but can run on to some extent. Interested to see how he goes. Bandalera Beau beat Guard The Safe last start and has to give him 1kg here. Seeing as the margin was so small and Guard The Safe has a better barrier, I think this may turn the tables. This horse is yet to race on a soft track too, so this factor may be a deciding one. He’s not without his fair share of ability. Needs Time simply got too far back last start. He won a trial on a soft track leading into that race, so he should handle the conditions here.  The small field also means he won’t get too far back. Great value chance. Disengo has been improving with each run. He showed a good turn of foot last start and with a slightly smaller field and an inside barrier, his turn of foot could be his biggest asset.

Suggested bet: Guard The Safe, Bandalera Beau, Needs Time and Disengo – each way

Race 3 – Dream Horse In Cinemas Handicap – 1400m – 12:37pm

1 – Son Son
4 – The Spruiker
7 – Jedi Mind
3 – She’s God To You

Comment: Son Son was a touch disappointing last start and I hope that wasn’t because of the soft track, because he’s going to get that here. However, he has won on a soft track before (3:1-1-0) and loves this distance (4:3-1-0). Look for him to bounce back. The Spruiker is unbeaten at this track (1:1-0-0) thanks to last start’s win. He consistently runs well and is unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0). She’s God To You finished third last start in a listed race. She loves this distance (3:2-0-1) and has won on a soft track before (2:1-1-0). As long as she behaves and jumps well, she’ll run a good race. Jedi Mind has really turned a corner this preparation, winning two races leading into this one. The only concern is his soft track record (2:0-0-0).

Suggested bet: Son Son, The Spruiker, She’s God To You and Jedi Mind – each way

Race 4 – Western Racepix Handicap – 1400m – 1:17pm

2 – Beat The Bro
5 – Secret Statue
6 – Brave Dream
1 – Zephyr Queen

Comment: Beat The Bro finished second first up after not having the ideal run. He’s placed second up before (3:0-2-0) and at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). He also loves a soft track (4:1-3-0). Secret Statue is up in class but has been racing well this preparation. He does have a good turn of foot and his only win in seven starts has been on a soft track (3:1-0-0). Conditions just look to suit Beat The Bro better. Brave Dream is also up in class and showed a good turn of foot last start, finishing second at Northam. She’s normally hitting her stride around this time in her preparation, so I’m interested to see what she can do here. Zephyr Queen was outclassed in a listed race two starts ago but did bounce back last start to finish third. She only has to carry 58.5kg due to Keshaw’s claim which puts her back in the race. She should handle the conditions but may find one better.

Suggested bet: Beat The Bro – each way

Race 5 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1200m – 1:57pm

3 – Ohbeeh
5 – Devoted Star
1 – Puli
6 – Island Missile

Comment: Ohbeed won last start and looks to face almost the exact same conditions here. His second up record could have been a little stronger (3:1-0-0) and there does look to be a couple of horses wanting to go forward. No reason for him to run a bad race though. Devoted Star was her own worst enemy last preparation. She looks to have bounced back here, with a second first up and probably could have won if she didn’t approach heels at the 200m mark. She’s yet to place at this track/distance (2:0-0-0) but has won on a soft track (5:1-1-1) and placed second up (3:0-0-1). Puli has a lot of statistics going in his favour. He loves this track/distance (4:3-1-0) and a soft track (5:3-1-1). He also won last start with 60kg. I just wonder whether the 62kg will get the better of him here. Island Missile was disappointing last start but threw his head on jumping, so they probably got way further back than they would have liked. He’s drawn barrier 1 so should get a better position here, but his soft track record could be better (9:1-1-0).

Suggested bet: Ohbeeh, Devoted Star and Puli – each way

Race 6 – Byron Bay Premium Lager Handicap – 1000m – 2:39pm

4 – Panzdown
2 – Nerodio
9 – This’ll Testya
8 – Madam Torio

Comment: Panzdown is four for four this preparation. He’s up in class so does drop 3.5kg off last start’s win. He’s had quite the gap between runs, so that’s a slight concern. However, he’s won at this track/distance (2:1-1-0) and loves a soft track (4:3-1-0). Nerodio is also coming off a win and is the definition of consistent! He’s actually unbeaten at this track/distance (3:3-0-0) and has won on a soft track before (4:1-1-1). He also only has to carry 57.5kg with Laqdar’s claim. Incredibly hard to fault! This’ll Testya finished second to Nerodio last start but actually has to give him 1kg here. She finished second to Panzdown the start before that too. Pike jumps back on board but I think her soft track record (2:0-1-0) may see it harder to turn the tables on one of those horses. Madam Torio was her own worst enemy first up. Her trial leading into that race suggests she’s better than that and she has won at this track/distance (6:3-0-0). She only has to carry 51kg with Keshaw’s claim, which makes her competitive.

Suggested bet: Panzdown and Nerodio – each way

Race 7 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1600m – 3:15pm

6 – Zaratite
5 – Staralign
3 – Naughty By Nature
1 – Not To Be Mist

Comment: Zaratite hasn’t been seen at the races since August 2019. So, it’s taken a few trials to get him fit, but his latest trial suggests he’s ready to go. He’s probably looking for a touch more distance and has drawn wide, but he’s won at Belmot (5:2-2-0) and on a soft track (5:3-2-0). Staralign has proven that his Kalgoorlie form is good. He finished third behind Billy Ain’t Silly last start which is good form. He’s got a good barrier, placed at the track/distance (1:0-0-1) and won on a soft track (10:3-2-1). With fitness on his side, he’s great value. Naughty By Nature chose to bypass the Hyperion in favour of this race. She’s still well weighted here and didn’t finish far off Leading Girl last start. She won at the distance (3:1-0-2) and on a soft track (4:1-1-2). She looks to be very well suited here. Not To Be Mist comes out of the same race as Staralign, where he finished second. I don’t think the 0.5kg swing is enough to make a difference on its own. However, this horse isn’t as consistent and I’m hoping that will be the difference.

Suggested bet: Zaratite, Staralign and Naughty By Nature – each way

Race 8 – Seacorp – Hyperion Stakes – 1600m – 3:55pm

13 – Leading Girl
3 – The Velvet King
11 – Dance Music
1 – Valour Road

Comment: Leading Girl won first up with a good turn of foot. She’s up in class but has won in all of these conditions including track/distance (3:2-0-1), second up (3:2-1-0) and on a soft track (2:1-1-0). She’s drawn wide so will probably have to go back, but she has the turn of foot to overcome it and that’s what makes me nervous. The Velvet King surprised everyone last start. Darren always said he’d be better suited to this race, but he does go better fresh. The soft track is our biggest advantage (8:4-2-1) and he has won at this track/distance before (3:1-2-0). I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t in the first few. Dance Music finished third behind The Velvet King last start after leading all the way. She doesn’t get any weight on us as a result of the conditions of this race. She has won at this distance (3:2-0-0) but never raced over it at Belmont. She’ll also love the soft track too (6:4-0-2). She’ll give them something to run down. Valour Road finished second to The Velvet King lad start. He’s never raced at 1400m, so it will be interesting to see how he goes at that. Drawn nicely in barrier 4 and has won on a soft track before (5:3-1-0).

Suggested bet: Leading Girl, The Velvet King and Dance Music – each way

Race 9 – Amelia Park Handicap – 2200m – 4:35pm

4 – Born To Try
1 – Black Shadow
3 – Blackwater Bay
9 – Lady Duckworth

Comment: Born To Try literally tries her hardest every time. She teams up with Pike again here but does rise up 3.5kg off last start’s run. From the wide barrier, she may have to go back, but we have previously seen a turn of foot over 2000m on a soft track. She’ll run an honest race. Black Shadow has been consistent at his past five starts. Lately, he seems to be finding one better and this could be because a few of these other horses have a better soft track record. However, he only has to carry 58kg with Ladqar’s claim and should be in the finish again. Blackwater Bay is coming off a win over 2100m, so while he’s never raced over 2200m before, I can’t see it being a problem. He has a good soft track (3:2-0-0) and is hard to fault this preparation. The wide barrier may be his only undoing. Lady Duckworth is significantly up in class but is coming off a win over 2100m at Belmont. She’s proven over long distances on a soft track and does seem to have a turn of foot. The wide barrier and class could just see her finding one better.

Suggested bet: Born To Try, Black Shadow, Blackwater Bay and Lady Duckworth – each way

Best Bet

Race 4 – Beat The Bro

Confidence rating

It was really hard to pick a best bet this week, just because the races are so even! Races 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6 look to be the hardest. I’ve taken a bit of a risk in race 7, but I’m hoping that pays off. I think people are underestimating what Leading Girl can, but I really hope they’re right about The Velvet King.

Last Week’s Results

R2-exacta
R4-boxed trifecta
R7-exacta
Winners in top 4: 8/9
Top picks: 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, -, 2nd, 1st, -, 3rd
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: +1.5 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)