Belmont 11/09/2021

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Soft 7
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, early shower or two

Race 1 – Glenroy Chaff Plate – 1200m – 12:43pm

4 – Red Fifty Three
2 – Kaymay
5 – War Gem
7 – Harmika

Comment: Red Fifty Three won in a really nice fashion at his first race. As a result of that win, he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and on a soft track (1:1-0-0). His trial form is good and Pike jumps back on board here. There’s no reason for him to run a bad race. Kaymay won at her first race but then was probably aimed a bit too high in the group 3 WA Sires. She comes into this race without a trial but does go well fresh and won first up last time (1:1-0-0). She’s yet to race on a soft track, but class could get her through here. War Gem seems to be in for a much better preparation this start, after winning first up. He’s yet to race on a soft track, but his trial form suggests that he should handle it. He’s one to watch. Harmika narrowly went down to Policiere last start, which looks like good form to follow. She’s second up, so should improve with one run under her belt. She is up in distance, so there is a question mark over that, but connections won’t know till she tries. It’s a very even race to start the day.

Suggested bet: Red Fifty Three, Kaymay, War Gem and Harmika – each way

Race 2 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Maiden – 1400m – 1:19pm

8 – Atlantis Beach
2 – Traded Crown
1 – Forty Niner
3 – Hoover

Comment: Atlantis Beach missed the jump last start, which probably didn’t help his chances. He drops down in class, which does mean he rises 3kg off last start, but he did carry 59kg first up and finished third. He steps up in distance, but this should give him more time to catch them. His odds are a little shorter than I would have expected, but he can run a good race. Traded Crown has been racing consistently, though be it in weaker company. This distance on a soft track doesn’t look to be a problem for him here and he has placed at Belmont before (5:0-1-1). From barrier 3, he should be able to settle in the first few, which is where he does his best work. He’s good value! Forty Niner was just beaten by a better horse last start. Three starts ago, he did finish second at this track/distance. Belmont is probably his favourite track (4:0-4-0), so he should run another consistent race. Hoover showed a good turn of foot first start, running on from the back to finish second. Having drawn wide here, I do suspect that he’ll go back again. He’s yet to race at Belmont, but he has placed at this distance (1:0-1-0) and on a soft track (1:0-1-0). It’s another race where the winner can come from anywhere.

Suggested bet: Atlantis Beach, Traded Crown, Forty Niner and Hoover – each way

Race 3 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1000m – 1:59pm

6 – Policiere
4 – This’ll Testya
1 – State Attorney
2 – Starfield Impact

Comment: Policiere faces the older horses here but did win first up. Her second up record is better (2:1-1-0) and thanks to last start, she’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). She’s never raced on a soft track, so there is a slight question mark over that. At least she’s drawn a good barrier though. Look for her to continue her great form. This’ll Testya put a good gap on the rest of the field in her trial leading into this race. She’s won first up before (3:2-0-0) and likes this track/distance (4:1-1-1). She probably would have preferred a good track, but she has placed on a soft track before (3:0-1-0). In a quality field, it always helps to have Pike riding, and this, combined with her form could be the winning difference. State Attorney wasn’t himself last start and maybe the 60kg did get to him. If it did, that is a bit of a red flag here, seeing as he has to carry 60kg again. He’s always the bridesmaid at this track/distance (6:0-3-0), but at least he has won on a soft track (7:1-2-0). He could surprise. Starfield Impact was a bit disappointing last start, but she did race wide throughout according to the stewards’ report. We saw a glimpse of her former self two starts ago, so maybe racing in the first two really helped her. She only has to carry 57.5kg due to Laqdar’s claim, which puts her back in the race. We’ll just have to see which version of herself she brings to the races this time.

Suggested bet: Policiere and This’ll Testya – each way

Race 4 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1400m – 2:38pm

3 – Ginger Flyer
4 – Justhandy
1 – Speedy Miss
2 – Beat The Bell

Comment: Ginger Flyer was beaten as slightly expected by her trainer last start (he said Smashing was a threat). She’s second up and has a good record (2:1-0-1). She’s also placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and on a soft track (2:0-2-0). Look for her to go one better here. Justhandy is up in class and looking to make it three wins in a row. He’s won at Belmont (5:2-0-0) and placed at this distance (1:0-0-1), but never raced at these conditions together. Given how he’s been handling 1300m at Belmont, the extra 100m shouldn’t be a problem. From barrier 2, he should be in the first few and he has won on a soft track (5:2-0-1). He’s a healthy each way chance. Speedy Miss just always seems to find one better. Except for two starts ago, she has been racing very consistently. Laqdar jumps on board here, and thanks to his claim, she only has to carry 58kg, which puts her back in the race. She’s certainly no stranger to this track/distance (9:2-3-2), which is probably the biggest thing in her favour. She’s also won on a soft track (12:2-2-2), so she could surprise. Beat The Bell beat Speedy Miss two starts ago and does have to give her 1.5kg here. This horse just isn’t as consistent as her though. She is third up here and looks to be in for a good preparation. She’s also well suited to this track/distance (6:2-1-1). There’s no reason why she can’t win.

Suggested bet: Ginger Flyer, Justhandy, Speedy Miss and Beat The Bell – each way

Race 5 – Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap – 1000m – 3:20pm

8 – Come Magic
7 – Type Won
4 – Devine Beast
6 – Stigwood

Comment: Come Magic looks to be in for a better preparation this time in, though she did finish third in the group 3 Gimcrack last preparation. Thanks to last start, she has placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and on a soft track (1:0-1-0). From barrier 1, she should easily get to the front and give them something to run down. Having Pike riding is always a positive too. Her odds are a little short, but hopefully, her form holds up. Type Won finally got another win on the board, though it was only in a class one. She jumps up in class and Pike jumps off in favour of Come Magic. She seems to be hitting her stride here though and she has won at this track/distance (4:1-0-1). If she can handle the class, she could win this. Devine Beast has been knocking on the door for a win at her past two starts. Both starts were on a good track, so I was worried that she might not handle the soft going here, but she has won on a soft track before (3:1-0-0). From barrier 8, I suspect she will go back, and whether the soft track will take her turn of foot away, I guess we’ll find out. At least she has placed at this track/distance before (2:0-1-0). Don’t rule her out! Stigwood is having his first start in WA and he hasn’t trialled leading into this race, so it’s hard to tell where he’s at. He’s also never raced over this distance. The biggest thing in his favour is his soft track record (2:1-0-1). He’s also placed first up before (3:0-0-1). He’s a watch and see.

Suggested bet: Come Magic, Type Won and Devine Beast – each way

Race 6 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1600m – 3:55pm

1 – Giant Leap
4 – General Grant
5 – Al Mahalo
3 – Karijini Aurora

Comment: Giant Leap is yet to place outside of the top three this preparation. Laqdar does take over from Pike, but I suspect that’s because connections wanted to use his weight claim, as the horse only has to carry 58.5kg now. He’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0), which was due to last start. His soft track record is the biggest thing in his favour (6:3-2-1). Combined with his class, he’s a winning chance. General Grant is looking to make it three wins in a row. He is up in class here, but his statistics are hard to ignore. Thanks to last start, he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and on a soft track (1:1-0-0). He’s on the one-week backup, but if he handles this and the class, he can win. Al Mahalo didn’t seem to handle 2000m last start, so dropping back in distance should suit him here. Even though he’s yet to win at this track/distance, he does have a great record (3:0-1-2). He’s also proven on a soft track (10:1-3-2). He’s incredible value! Karijini Aurora seems to be bouncing back to her old form. She’s placed at this track/distance before (5:0-0-1) and I do wonder whether she’s more a 1400m horse. From barrier 1, she should get a forward position and Pike will give her every chance. I’m curious to see what she can do here.

Suggested bet: Giant Leap, General Grant and Al Mahalo – each way

Race 7 – Hahn Superdry – Farnley Stakes – 1400m – 4:30pm

7 – Notorious One
5 – Tellem We’re Comin
1 – Trap For Fools
4 – Western Temple

Comment: Notorious One is looking to make it three wins in a row. The only race he hasn’t won this preparation is where he got a touch too far back and finished third. He’s up in class here, so drops 4kg off last start’s run. I love his track/distance record (3:2-0-1) and his soft track record (5:3-0-1). If he can handle the class, he’ll make his mark here. Tellem We’re Comin has really good form this preparation, finishing second in two listed races. He also drops 3.5kg coming into this race and has a great soft track record (3:1-1-1). While he loves Belmont (7:3-2-1), I do question whether he’s suited at this distance, as he’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0). He has previously won over 1600m, so 1400m shouldn’t be too far. He’s a threat to my top tip. Trap For Fools won a trial leading into this race. His form back in April was really good, but he is yet to win first up (9:0-2-1). Normally 62kg would be a concern, but he did handle 62kg last preparation over longer distances. There’s no doubt that he’s looking for further, but he should run a good race here. Western Temple has been a bit hit and miss this preparation. He’s finally drawn a better barrier here though, and Pike jumps on board. The step up in distance will definitely benefit him too and he’s placed at this track/distance (3:0-2-0). Being third up, he should be nearly spot on fitness wise. It’s hard to fault him.

Suggested bet: Notorious One, Tellem We’re Comin, Trap For Fools and Western Temple – each way

Race 8 – Schweppes Handicap – 1400m – 5:05pm

2 – Temptacion
3 – Downforce
8 – Avalon Bay
1 – Miracle Man

Comment: Temptacion looks to have needed the run first up. She’s definitely looking for more distance, so I’m surprised to see her start over 1400m here again. She has placed over this distance before though (2:0-0-1), but not at Belmont. She is up in class, so drops 3kg off last start’s run. This should help her chances as 61.5kg may have just gotten the better of her last start. Her second up record is much better too (2:1-0-1). I’d love to see her over more distance, but class could see her winning here. Downforce is on the one-week backup. Conditions look to be almost exactly the same here, so at least he’ll handle those factors. He’s versatile regarding where he can sit in the run and honestly, it’s hard to fault him. He just always seems to run into one better. There’s no reason why he can’t win. Avalon Bay hasn’t been at the races since March and his trials weren’t that flashy leading into this race. I really like his first up record though (4:1-1-2), plus he’s also placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1) and proven on a soft track (4:1-1-1). I’m curious to see whether he can bounce back to his 2020 winter form. Miracle Man didn’t actually perform too badly first up, after being off the racing scene for over a year. That race looked to be tougher on paper too. He’ll take great improvement off that run and he is second up record is good too (5:2-0-1). His track/distance record isn’t the best (4:0-0-1), but he has won on a soft track (10:2-1-2). The soft track should also help him, seeing as he’s got bar shoes on for the first time. The biggest concern is that he has to carry 61kg, but he could surprise.

Suggested bet: Temptacion and Downforce – each way

Race 9 – Seacorp Handicap – 1200m – 5:35pm

1 – Puli
3 – Cliffs Of Comfort
11 – Dunbar
4 – Em Tee Aye

Comment: Puli has had about 2 months between races. He comes into this race without a trial, but he does do well fresh (3:1-0-1). I also love his track/distance record (6:4-2-0) and his soft track record (6:4-1-1). The 62kg does look like a big ask, but he did win with 60kg and 62kg last preparation. If it’s a leader bias day by this time of the day, he’s one to watch! Cliffs Of Comfort hadn’t exactly shown his best this preparation. He’s finally drawn an inside barrier though, so hopefully, he’ll get the front a little easier. The soft track will suit him too (4:1-1-0). With Laqdar’s claim, he only has to carry 58kg, which puts him back in the race. Look for him to bounce back here. Dunbar recorded a better result last start, but was just beaten by a better horse. He’s on the one-week backup and might not be a fan of this track/distance (4:0-1-0). He’s up in class though so drops 3.5kg on last start. Hopefully, this leads to an improved performance. Em Tee Aye finished fourth in three listed races last preparation, though he was beaten by a decent margin. His trial leading into this race was good and he has won first up before (2:1-0-0). Seeing as he likes to race from the front, he will have to use a bit of energy from  barrier 13 to get this position. He’ll probably improve next start when he steps up to 1400/1600m, but he should run a good race here and he’s good value.

Suggested bet: Puli, Cliffs Of Comfort, Dunbar and Em Tee Aye – each way

Best Bet

Race 6 – Giant Leap

Quaddie

R6: 1, 3, 4, 5
R7: 1, 4, 5, 7
R8: 2, 3, 8
R9: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11

Confidence rating

My confidence is a bit all over the shop this week. Races 1, 2, 8 and 9 look like absolutely nightmare to tip. Races 4 and 6 also have a few chances. I’ve got a few favourites on top which always makes me nervous, but fingers crossed for a profitable day!

Last Week’s Results

R2-quinella
Winners in top 4: 9/9
Top picks: 1st, 2nd, -, -, -, -, -, 1st, –
Best bet: –
Quaddie: yes
Profit: -11.5 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)