Belmont 11/07/2020

Conditions

Rail – 7m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 18 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Peninsula Dining Room Plate – 1000m – 12:02pm

Born To Rule looks to be a horse with ability, having never placed outside of the top three in her career (3:1-1-1). She’s drawn wide in a race that looks to have a lot of speed, so that might result in some energy having to be used early on. She’s got good form surround her races and should go well. Clairvoyance is actually one of my horses having her debut race. I’ll be honest and say I’m pretty excited about this girl. She’s finally drawn a good barrier and her trials have been fantastic, including beating Mystical View who looks to be a good horse. No matter what the result, she’ll benefit from the race day experience. Mischievous Diva has been improving with each trial which is good to see. Given her trials, I think she’ll only improve over more distance and on a soft track. She’s making her race debut as well, so that does make it a little harder too judge where she’s at, but her weight, barrier and trainer/jockey combination all give her a chance at winning. Good value. Bumper Humper is on the one-week backup, after winning last start. Her two wins have come on a good track, so those conditions will suit her here. She’s a versatile horse that has drawn well and rounds out an even top four.
4 – Born To Rule
10 – Clairvoyance
11 – Mischievous Diva
2 – Bumper Humper

Race 2 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Handicap – 1200m – 12:42pm

Secret Statue steps up significantly in class but is coming off an impressive first up win! His turn of foot was just breathe taking, overcoming a wide barrier in the process. Surprisingly, his trials weren’t the best and I do question whether he’s better suited on a soft track. One to watch going forward though. Puckapunyal has a 100% place rate (6:1-3-2) and really has only been beaten by a better horse in Bright Diamond this preparation. She can sit back and run on or take a forward position, which should be an advantage here. She’s third up, so will have fitness on her side. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see her winning and is a huge threat. Platinum Bullet is the second most experienced horse in this race, if that counts for anything. Her only bad run in five starts has been when she got too far back. From that barrier she should be able to settle into a nice position and is coming off a win, so brings confidence from that run. Tiff Has Spoken raced last Saturday where he finished third behind Zero Demerits. He has shown us that he has a good turn of foot and it definitely looks like he prefers to sit back and then run on. Given the small field, at least he won’t get stuck in traffic. He’s not without his chances.
6 – Secret Statue
5 – Puckapunyal
1 – Platinum Bullet
4 – Tiff Has Spoken

Race 3 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1600m – 1:22pm

Aberdeen Queen would probably be an out and out winner had she drawn a better barrier. She can sit back and run on, so maybe the barrier won’t be as big of a problem, though given the size of the field, there is the opportunity to get stuck in traffic. With her ability, which is backed up with the horses she’s raced against, she should be at least in the top three, if not winning. Moderator is arguably in career best form, though the form surrounding those races doesn’t look to be the best. He too has drawn wide but gets 1.5kg on Aberdeen Queen since they met last start. This looks to be his ideal distance and he can turn the tables. Perceptive Miss has been getting pretty far back in her runs and without having watched the reply, she may have got boxed in. There’s always the chance this could happen again here but as she’s drawn the inside barrier, if she jumps well, we might be able to see her settle slightly further forward. Bonneville Black is a clear outsider that might actually have a chance. He finished last preparation with career best runs, though at a lower class. He’s won a trial leading into this race so looks to have come back just as good. There definitely a few things going against him such as his first up record (3:1-0-0), barrier and class, plus he’ll only improve as he steps up in distance. Cheeky chance I reckon though.
1 – Aberdeen Queen
3 – Moderator
9 – Perceptive Miss
6 – Bonneville Black

Race 4 – Swan River Vase – 2200m – 1:58pm

Material Man surprised us all last start, winning the group 3 Strickland Stakes after coming off some disappointing runs. As a result of that win, he does have to give the other horses some weight, but given he’s a group 1 winner, it could have been worse. Justin Warwick just seems to know what makes this horse tick and with another great ride by Paul, we should see this horse going back to back. Petticoat Junction is pretty consistent without getting any wins of the board. She’s no stranger to this distance and just loves swooping from the back. She absolutely won’t know herself with just 51kg on her back and with that inside barrier look for her to be running on strongly. Noir De Rue looks to be the obvious leader which may just require a little more energy from the outside barrier. He was racing well leading into the Strickland where he was slightly outclassed. Dropping down in weight and class should benefit, though this race doesn’t look to be much easier. Mizlecki doesn’t seem to have a pet distances, winning six races between 1000m and 2000m. This versatile is sometimes a blessing and a curse, as I assume it does make it hard to find an appropriate race for the horse. She really hasn’t put in a bad run this preparation, she just has either gotten too far back or just outclassed. Her good track record is better than her soft, so that is a positive here as is the barrier.
1 – Material Man
8 – Petticoat Junction
4 – Noir De Rue
3 – Mizlecki

Race 5 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1200m – 2:39pm

Windstorm is absolutely flying, and this really is his race to lose. His career statistics are just through the roof (5:4-1-0) and there’s interest from over east for him to target their feature races. He is facing slightly better horses here but with conditions to suit him, he should be winning. Son Of A God would be the race favourite if it wasn’t for Windstorm. This horse has great career statistics as well (7:5-0-0) but can also be his own worst enemy, as we saw two starts ago. He’s drawn wide and Pike jumps off in favour of my top tip, but I expect him to go well. Cryptic Love showed an amazing turn of foot last start, coming from the back to win. This turn of foot is a fantastic trait that we’ve seen before, though sometimes it’s been too little too late. However, I think it could be a deadly weapon here, especially given the good barrier. She gains 2kg because of that win but watch out if she gets out. Massimo is another horse that Pike has ridden before and one that also has its fair share of quirky behaviours. He’s always in the first but can’t quite get the chocolates and this doesn’t look to be an easier task. The good barrier and stepping up in distance are in his favour, but he’ll need to record a PB to beat Windstorm.
10 – Windstorm
9 – Son Of A God
5 – Cryptic Love
7 – Massimo

Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1400m – 3:15pm

Inspirational Girl’s trials actually haven’t been that good leading into this race, but her career statistics are (5:4-1-0), so I’m hoping she can bring that form. Her first up record is good, she has a good turn of foot and she’s won from a wide barrier before. Fun fact, six is actually my lucky number, so nothing makes me happier than having horse six in race six on top. Look for the Peters/Williams/Pike combination to get back to back wins. Flower Of Scotland is racing extremely well this preparation, being three wins for three races so far. These wins have been in a lower class, but one was won in a particularly nice fashion. Due to Madi’s claim, she only has to carry 58.5kg and that puts her nicely back in the race. Black Shadow ended last preparation on a positive note. This does look like a tough race for him to start out in, especially as he doesn’t have a very good first up record (3:0-0-0) and the trial wasn’t anything flashy. Look for him to improve over more distance. Fire Maker does have a good turn of foot and finished third behind Windstorm two starts ago. A good track over this distance looks to be right up his alley. He might just find my top tip a bit too hard to beat.
6 – Inspirational Girl
1 – Flower Of Scotland
5 – Black Shadow
9 – Fire Maker

Race 7 – Belmont Park Book A Bay Handicap – 2000m – 3:50pm

Roman Flirt’s results seem to be flying a bit under the radar, after recording some nice wins in the country. She’s won her last two starts at this distance, so that certainly isn’t a problem. What could prove to make this a more difficult race for her is the extremely wide barrier. At least she’ll have Pike to help her. Sentimental Gift put in a brave run last start, where she finished second. She looks to be another victim to a wide barrier in this race, but at least she’ll only have to carry 58.5kg with Laqdar’s claim. She’s yet to finish outside the top three (10:3-5-2) and is unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0). I expect my top two tips to be battling it out. Uncle Lino finished second to Roman Flirt last start and not only gets 2.5kg on him here but also has a better barrier. He seems to appreciate these longer races and should put in a good performance. Richardson also has drawn wide, though he is coming off a win where he won from out wide. This is a big jump in class and distance, but given that he’s been improving with each run, I think he deserves a crack at it. Good value.
4 – Roman Flirt
1 – Sentimental Gift
5 – Uncle Lino
8 – Richardson

Race 8 – Beaufine Stakes – 1000m – 4:20pm

Misty Metal brings some of the best form into this race, coming out of group 3s and the group 1 Winterbottom in the summer. It would have given connections more confidence if she’d gotten a better barrier, but her trials have been exceptionally good, and she has a great first up record (4:1-2-1). Essential Spice is no doubt the clear threat in this race and is the one horse that makes me nervous. She too performed well in the summer but wasn’t in the same level of races at Misty Metal. However, this distance is clearly her favourite and her second up record is good without winning (3:0-2-1). I have no doubt that she could change that statistic here! Samizdat has high expectations on him given his price tag, though I wouldn’t say he’s disappointed connections. His form is probably second best to Misty Metal, has he won the group 3 Asian Beau in the summer, beating Regal Power, which is incredibly good form! He then backed that up with a nice performance in the Railway Stakes. His first up record is good (4:3-0-0) but he may be looking for a touch further distance. Flow actually beat Essential Spice last start yet isn’t favoured as much. They meet evenly in the weights, though Flow only has to carry 57.5kg compared to 61.5kg last start. This should benefit, though I think he would have preferred a softer track.
2 – Misty Metal
8 – Essential Spice
6 – Samizdat
3 – Flow

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1200m – 4:55pm

Devoted Star went boom last start, winning after being last on the turn. Interestingly, it wasn’t his quickest 600m, but maybe he’s matured since last preparation. Pike show be able to get into a nice position in running from that barrier, though there is the potential to get stuck on the rail. As long as he can get out, he should be right in the finish. Seminole Brave only had his first race just over a month ago and is already two for two. He probably would have been my top tip, but I don’t think he’s got that x-factor (at this stage) and turn of foot that Devoted Star has. No reason why he can’t win though. Levitate ticks a lot of boxes for me. He’s been racing well this preparation (4:1-2-1), placing behind some very good horses. Dropping back to 1200m and getting a good track are also in his favour. The only absolutely minor things that deters me are that Pike jumps off in favour of my top tip and that this horse as drawn wide. He has the ability to overcome both of these factors though. Paris Report showed some ability last preparation and looks to have come back just as good this time round. She won first up, going into that race without a trial, so expect her to only improve off that run. Her second up record is good (2:1-0-1), with the class of her races the only reason she’s further down my list.
6 – Devoted Star
9 – Seminole Brave
4 – Levitate
8 – Paris Report

Best Bet

Race 6 – Inspirational Girl

Confidence rating

My tipping just took forever this week and I certainly don’t feel the best about it. The only races I’m really confident about are races 5 and 6. Sometimes my best results come on my not so confident days, so I’m hoping that’s the result here. Best of luck to Clairvoyance though, hope I’m wrong with that tip there!

Last Week’s Results

R4 – exacta
R9 – quinella
Winners in top 4 – 6/10
Top picks: -, -, -, 1st, -, -, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd
Best bet: 1st
Profit: -8.72