Belmont 10/07/2021

Sorry but I didn’t have time to write a comment on the horses that made my top 4 due to scratchings.

Conditions

Rail – 13m
Track – Heavy 8
Forecast – Max 18 degrees, possible early storm, morning showers.

Race 1 – Morley Growers Market Plate – 1200m – 10:43pm

9 – Vranyo
3 – Bigideas
4 – Kelora
1 – American Troop

Comment: Vranyo has been improving with each run and her two places could be put down to the soft track. She’s drawn a bit wide but that should enable her to get to the front easily. She’s placed at this track/distance before (1:0-0-1) and only has to carry 53kg with Holly’s claim. Experience could see her win this. Bigideas also won his latest trial. He only has to carry 55kg with Laqdar’s claim and has also drawn beautifully in barrier 3. None of his trials were on a soft track, so that’s the only question mark here. Kelora has placed third at both of his trials, though has only had the one trial leading into this race. He’s good value in what is a very open two-year-old race.

Suggested bet: Vranyo, Bigideas, Kelora and American Troop – each way

Race 2 – TABtouch Better Your Bet Plate – 1200m – 11:23pm

6 – It’sarayday
14 – The Velvet Queen
10 – The Front Bar
3 – First Missile

Comment: It’sarayday has good form surrounding his first trial and that was on a soft track. He’s trialed over 1000m, so the 1200m shouldn’t be too far for him either. The only concern is that he could get stuck on the rail from barrier 2. The Velvet Queen is a full sister to The Velvet King and I’m hoping she’s just as good as her brother! Her first trial did look disappointing on paper, but it was over 400m. She improved at her second trial, finishing second, plus she has a perfect barrier in barrier 5. Genetics suggest that she’ll handle the ground and the distance. I can’t wait to see how she goes. The Front Bar has shown good ability in her trial and her two trials plus her one race have been on a soft track. She’ll improve with one run under her belt, but I am worried that she’ll get lost from barrier 14. First Missile comes out of the same race as The Front Bar. Kristy jumps on her which is not only a positive in terms of her weight claim (he only has to carry 55kg), but also because she rode him at all of his trials (Troy Turner rode him first up). His trials could have been better, but the even field is in his favour.

Suggested bet: It’sarayday, The Velvet Queen, The Front Bar and First Missile – each way

Race 3 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1300m – 12:02pm

1 – Ohbeeh
2 – Fiery Water
5 – Vital Blast
6 – Classy Macro

Comment: Ohbeeh is coming off a win, with conditions nearly almost identical here. He only has to carry 58kg due to Holly’s claim, which puts him back in the race. From barrier 10, he should find the front easily too. He can be hit and miss but hopefully he’s on here. Fiery Water either didn’t like Kalgoorlie last start or got too far back, but it was definitely a forgive run. Pike jumps on board here and this horse is actually unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He also likes a soft track (6:2-0-2), so he should run a good race. Vital Blast usually takes a while to warm up, so he should be hitting his stride being third up now. He did run the quickest 600m first up, so if he can repeat that here, he could go close. I’m just not convinced he’s a Belmont horse (5:0-0-1). Classy Macro does his best work from the front, so the wide barrier could actually be a blessing in disguise. He’s placed at this track before (3:0-2-0), but yet to officially race over 1300m. His second up record (2:1-0-0) and soft track record (6:2-1-0) are good, so he should go well.

Suggested bet: Ohbeeh, Fiery Water, Vital Blast and Classy Macro – each way

Race 4 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1650m – 12:42pm

3 – Zaratite
4 – Salon Du Cheval
7 – Lonsdale Lady
5 – Gates Of Babylon

Comment: Zaratite is probably in the best form. He finished second behind Naughty By Nature first up, who then went on the win the Strickland Stakes, so this looks like good form to follow. He’s won second up before (2:1-1-0) and loves a soft track (6:3-3-0). It’s hard to fault him. Salon Du Cheval looks to have bounced back this preparation. He ran on well first up and he’ll be needing that power from barrier 8. He’s yet to place at this track/distance, which makes me a bit nervous (2:0-0-0), but he has won second up (6:2-1-0) and on a wet track. Lonsdale Lady was disappointing first up but she doesn’t seem to like it when she gets too far back. She’s placed second up before (3:0-0-1), but not at this distance (3:0-0-0). The one thing going in her favour is her soft track record (2:2-0-0).

Suggested bet: Zaratite – each way

Race 5 – Crown Perth Plate – 1400m – 1:22pm

6 – Searchin’ Roc’s
12 – Wise Words
7 – Mountain Ash
1 – Guard The Safe

Comment: Searchin’ Roc’s is coming off a win at her second start. She steps up in distance here, but she does like to run on from the back. She has the turn of foot to enable her to have this racing pattern and should go well. Wise Words opted to go this race over the Wednesday one, even though that Wednesday race got moved to today. She finished second behind Searchin’ Roc’s last start. She likes to lead and that should be achievable from barrier 2. Pike jumping on board is always a positive too. Mountain Ash put in a nice performance first up. He finished second behind Astrape which looks like good form to follow. He should only improve second up and he can surprise. Guard The Safe finished seventh behind Searchin’ Roc’s last start. He had a few excuses there and the wide barrier probably didn’t help. Seeing as he’s drawn wide here, there is a concern that he’ll have a repeat performance of last start. However, he steps up in distance, which will be the biggest advantage for him. He has a good track/distance record (2:1-1-0) and can bounce back here.

Suggested bet: Searchin’ Roc’s, Wise Words, Mountain Ash and Guard The Safe – each way

Race 6 – Peninsula Dining Room Handicap – 1200m – 1:58pm

8 – Secret Plan
3 – How’s The Serenity
2 – Ghost Who Walks
9 – Cable Boy

Comment: Secret Plan has some good form surrounding his races, plus his only time outside of the top 3 was where he finished fourth (6:1-1-3). He’s won at this track (2:1-0-1) and placed at this distance (3:0-1-1) but hasn’t raced these conditions together. He also loves a soft track (4:1-1-2), so it’s hard to fault him. How’s The Serenity has really improved this preparation. She’s coming off a win at this track/distance. She’s drawn wide for the first time in a few starts but seeing as she led all the way last start, the wide barrier could enable her to cross everyone. She only has to carry 55.5kg due to Holly’s claim, which makes her competitive too. There is a question mark over whether she has the class of Secret Plan, but I think she’s over the odds at $9. Ghost Who Walks is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) thanks to last start. Prior to that, he was a bit hit and miss, so he’ll probably need to have things go his way here. Laqdar’s claim and the 56.5kg is going to help. Cable Boy is yet to finish outside the top 3 in his career (3:1-0-2). His first trial this preparation was disappointing, but he bounced back at his second trial. All of his runs have been over this distance and he’s unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0). He’s up in class but that makes him a great outside chance.

Suggested bet: Secret Plan, How’s The Serenity, Ghost Who Walks and Cable Boy – each way

Race 7 – Mrs Mac’s Handicap – 1000m – 2:33pm

1 – Vane Tempest
4 – Forest War
2 – Ay Tee Emm
3 – Express Time

Comment: Vane Tempest is looking to make it two wins in a row. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), loves a soft track (3:2-1-0) and only has to carry 58.5kg due to Victoria’s claim. This is 2.5kg more than last start, but ability should see her go close. Forest War is coming off a win at Northam. Two starts ago he showed a really good turn of foot on a soft track. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and should run a good race. Ay Tee Emm was a touch disappointing towards the end of last preparation, but the longer distance races might not be up his alley. He looks to have bounced back this preparation after recording a win first up after coming off a winning trial. He’s won second up before (5:2-0-1) and on a soft track (10:3-2-1) and placed at this track/distance (5:0-0-2). The only concern is the wide barrier. Express Time has been a bit hit and miss lately. She drops down in distance here which looks to suit, especially as she’s won at this track/distance before (3:1-1-0).

Suggested bet: Vane Tempest and Forest War – each way

Race 8 – Beaufine Stakes – 1000m – 3:10pm

7 – Miss Conteki
5 – Amasenus
1 – Nerodio
3 – Gemma’s Son

Comment: Miss Conteki tasted defeat for the first time in seven starts, finishing second behind Long Beach. Pike jumps on board which is always a positive in a feature race (though Chris did pick Amasenus over this horse), she’s unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0), absolutely loves this distance (6:5-1-0) and placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). Barrier 9 would normally be a concern, but she has won from out wide before. Amasenus is looking to make it seven wins in a row. She’s on the one-week backup, so I’ll be interested to see how she handles that. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0) and has won on a soft track (3:1-1-0). Her turn of foot makes her a huge threat to my top tip. The only reason she’s not on top is because of the one-week backup and because I think Miss Conteki’s form is stronger. Nerodio is just ultra-consistent and looking to make it three wins in a row. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (4:4-0-0) and is proven on a soft track (5:2-1-1). There’s no reason why he can’t win this. Gemma’s Son finished third behind Long Beach and Miss Conteki last start. He did miss the jump slightly, losing 1L and he finished third by 1.1L, so if he jumps well here, that will certainly help his chances. He ticks the boxes in terms of soft track record (2:1-0-1) and track/distance record too (2:1-0-1). He rounds out a very even race.

Suggested bet: Miss Conteki, Amasenus, Nerodio and Gemma’s Son – each way

Race 9 – Furphy Handicap – 2100m – 3:45pm

1 – Black Shadow
4 – Secret Pearl
9 – Treasured Crown
5 – Sowar

Comment: Black Shadow got narrowly beaten last start. From barrier 4 he should be able to settle slightly further forward, which is where he does his best work from. He’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1) and only has to carry 58kg due to Laqdar’s claim, which puts him back in the race. Secret Pearl was good last start after getting way too far back. She’s drawn wide again here though, so I do worry we might see a repeat performance. Keshaw’s claim, meaning she only has to carry 55.5kg) may help to offset this. Treasured Crown really hasn’t been himself this preparation. Hopefully, stepping up in distance will help him improve and he’s placed on a soft track before (1:0-1-0).

Suggested bet: Black Shadow and Secret Pearl – each way

Race 10 – All Flags Signs And Banners Handicap – 1400m – 4:15pm

11 – Sentimental Hero
19 – Celebrity Man
4 – Beat The Bro
2 – Sentimental Queen

Comment: Sentimental Hero looks to be a horse with a lot of ability. He’s going off a nice win first up at Belmont, which means he’s unbeaten at this track (1:1-0-0) and on a soft track (1:1-0-0). He’s won over this distance before (4:1-1-1), but hasn’t faced it at Belmont. There’s nothing really to complain about, so he should go well. Celebrity Man replaces Brave Dream after getting a start due to scratchings. Beat The Bro is consistently in the first four. I’m surprised to see him drop down in distanced here, but he has placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-0). He could be another victim to the wide barrier though. Sentimental Queen had a quick spell after recording two for two last preparation. She comes into this race without a trial but has won first up before (3:2-0-0). She’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0), but I think she’s a better horse this time around. As she only has to carry 56.5kg with Holly’s claim, we could see her go close.

Suggested bet: Sentimental Hero, Celebrity Man, Beat The Bro and Sentimental Queen – each way

Race 11 – Western Racepix Handicap – 1200m – 4:55pm

4 – Puli
9 – Comes A Time
8 – Special Choice
12 – Notorious One

Comment: Puli has had a gap between runs, but that’s not unusual for him, as he does go well fresh. He’s looking to make it three wins in a row here. He drops 6.5kg off last start’s win, which is due to the increase in class and Holly’s claim. From barrier 6 he should easily find the front, though there is a bit of speed in this race. He loves a soft track (6:4-1-1) and this track/distance (5:4-1-0), so I suspect he’ll run a good race. Comes A Time has been pretty consistent this preparation. He has good form surrounding his races and has won on a soft track before (3:1-1-0). I just question whether this track/distance combination leaves him a bit vulnerable (3:0-0-1), especially with the wide barrier. Special Choice has been improving with each run and has good form, finishing second to Amasenus last start. She probably doesn’t have a turn of foot that we’re accustomed with for the cerise and white horses, but from barrier 3, she should get a lovely position. She’s placed at this track/distance before (2:0-1-0) and could surprise.

Suggested bet: Puli, Comes A Time and Special Choice – each way

Best Bet

Race 4 – Zaratite

Confidence rating

My confidence is pretty low this week as the track is going to be a mud pit! This often leads to a few upsets too. Honestly, I’m not even confident about the races going ahead!

Last Week’s Results

R1-first four
Winners in top 4: 4/9
Top picks: 2nd, 3rd, -, 1st, 3rd, -, -, 2nd, –
Best bet: –
Profit: -7.6 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)