Belmont 08/08/2020
Conditions
Rail – 6m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 21 degrees, partly cloudy
Race 1 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Maiden – 1000m – 11:42pm
Uncanny Timing was racing pretty consistently last preparation without getting a win on the board. He looks to have come back slightly better this preparation, winning a trial and placing second leading into this race. His last 600m times are some of the best in the race, he’s drawn well and has a good second up record (1:0-1-0). Ohsumi definitely prefers to run on speed, which shouldn’t be too hard to get from that inside barrier as long as he jumps well. He raced first up without a trial and placed second, so I expect him to only improve off that. He might be slightly better suited on a soft track, but he should be right in the finish. Petite La Femme showed a fantastic turn of foot first up this preparation, coming from last to finish second. If she can bring that here, there’s no reason she can’t win. She seems to be a pretty versatile horse, leading last start to finish third. This could be valuable given the wide barrier, which is a concern, as Alan will have options on where to place her. She’ll have fitness on her side and returning to a good track should benefit. Enduring Moment didn’t really show us much at his first two preparations, which were only a start each, but last start’s run was good. That start was at this track and distance, so we know he’ll handle those factors. It was on a soft track which looks to be his preferred goings, but he’s drawn wide here which may put him in a stick position. Value place bet.
2 – Uncanny Timing
4 – Ohsumi
10 – Petite La Femme
6 – Enduring Moment
Race 2 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1200m – 12:22pm
Pletto looks to be a standout horse in this field. It must be noted that the form surrounding her races doesn’t have any superstars in it, but she’s yet to miss a placing (7:3-2-2). I particularly like the turn of foot she showed last start too, winning from barrier 8, which she’s drawn again here. She’s third up so will be rock fit and just has a lot of ability in her favour. Bedouin Belle is a pretty consistent horse, with not much to complain about regarding her runs. This certainly doesn’t look a walk in the park, but she did finish third carrying 60.5kg so the 58.5kg here will be a slight relief. I question whether she’s better over 1000m, but she has placed at this distance before (4:0-2-0). Looking to go one better than her two previous thirds. Sea War was looking to make it three wins in a row last preparation, before he ran into some very talented horses. He won a trial leading into this race and won first up last preparation. Arguably he probably would have liked a soft track, but his only run on a good track was his maiden race, so that does make it a bit hard to judge. He’s drawn nicely and gets a drop in weight due to the rise in class. Paris Report was disappointing last start but had a few excuses in running. Seeing as she won at this track and distance the start before that, she can definitely bounce back here. I like her career statistics (9:3-0-2) and that she’s yet to finish worse than fourth (besides last start). She should be able to settle into a lovely position from that barrier and only carries 56.5kg with Chloe’s claim.
5 – Pletto
2 – Bedouin Belle
7 – Sea War
3 – Paris Report
Race 3 – Happy 30th Beau Plate – 1400m – 1:02pm
Billy Ain’t Silly looks to be a good horse in the making. He led all the way to win last start and with not much speed in this race, these tactics could be the winning formula once again. He beat Empire Reign in that race too who came out and won last start, so this suggests the form in that race was pretty good too. He’s drawn barrier one and should find the lead with no problems as long as he jumps well. He does step up to 1400m for the first time, so slight question mark on whether he can lead for that long, plus he’s never raced on a good track either. No doubt he’ll definitely be in the first few though. Queen Brown won in a nice fashion last start and there’s no reason she can’t do the same again here! She loves a good track (4:2-1-1) and has raced at this distance before (1:0-0-1) which may just give her an edge over my top tip. With a small field, she shouldn’t get too far back, especially with that barrier plus she also gets 2kg on Chix Chatter, despite beating him last start. Surveillance never runs a bad race when Pat Carbery is riding, instead just runs into one better. I think he’s a horse that is well suited to 1400m and again the small field should suit. He doesn’t have that electric turn of foot but that doesn’t look to be a problem here, with no obvious swoopers in the race. He beat two horses in this race last start and meets them evenly at the weight. No reason he should run a bad race. Keep Your Feet is great value if you ask me. My top tip does look hard to beat but this horse did win last start and looks to be in for a good preparation. His career statistics are great (4:1-0-2) as is his track record (2:1-0-1). He only rises 1kg off last start’s run due to Chloe’s claim though has drawn a slightly sticky barrier. He steps up to 1400m for the first time and connections would have been hoping that the rain came early but I think he can run a cheeky race.
3 – Billy Ain’t Silly
4 – Queen Brown
5 – Surveillance
2 – Keep Your Feet
Race 4 – Ngawyni Stakes – 1400m – 1:42pm
Massimo is a very good horse but sometimes he can be his own worst enemy. His last three starts he’s been on his best behaviour, recording a win and two seconds. The form surrounding his races is incredible and probably some of the best in this race. I’d be a little bit more confident if he was racing on a soft track, but his track record is good (8:2-5-0) as is his distance (3:0-3-0). This race certainly isn’t the easiest, but he should go well. Wrinkly is in a sticky situation, having a high rating yet no suitable races. The 62kg looks like a big ask, especially from that wide barrier, but he did win last start with 62.5kg, beating Jeraft in the process. His previous five starts with 62kg+ have actually been quite impressive too, placing in the top four, so he should be able to handle that here. The barrier is really the only concern, but he should be able to run a good race. Jeraft blew me a bit away last week, winning at good odds and beating some great horses in the process. His last two runs have probably been some of his best, especially last start with that turn of foot. This track certainly isn’t his favourite (12:1-1-0) but he does have a great distance record (9:5-0-1). He can surprise again. Missile Launch has been off the scenes since January, where he placed second in the Perth Cup. He did win one trial in April, though I’m guessing that something went wrong as he didn’t make it to the races that time. He’s won another trial leading into this race and has a good first up record (5:1-1-0). He’ll only improve with more distance and a bit of weight relief.
6 – Massimo
2 – Wrinkly
9 – Jeraft
1 – Missile Launch
Race 5 – Happy Birthday Robyn Handicap – 1600m – 2:18pm
Fuhrer looks to have found a very suitable race here, especially in terms of distance. He led all the way to win last start with 61.5kg. Due to the rise in class he does drop 3.5kg off that win, though he has drawn a similar barrier. I like his form behind Resortman five starts ago and it’s nice to see Mitchell team up with him again. If he can get to the front easily, he should be right in the finish. Luke’s Choice has finally drawn a good barrier, which should make it easier for him to settle into a nice position. However, he does seem to possess a good turn of foot, which we saw last start and three starts ago. He also won’t know himself with just 55kg on his back, which is due to the rise in class. Stepping up in distance should also benefit, though he would have appreciated the rain too. His worst career result is fifth and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change here. Black Shadow has just been getting too far back in his runs which may have resulted in him getting stuck in traffic (without having watched the replays). We saw last preparation that he’s much better when he’s racing on speed, beating and placing behind some good horses. From that barrier he hopefully won’t get as far back, though he’ll only improve as he gets over more ground. Majinika gets Madi on board who was on fire on Wednesday, recording three wins. With Madi’s claim, he also only has to carry 57kg, which puts him back in the race. His second behind Massimo two starts ago was good, but other than that he has been a touch disappointing. He has placed at this distance before (3:0-1-0) but he might just find one or two better here.
3 – Fuhrer
12 – Luke’s Choice
6 – Black Shadow
1 – Majinika
Race 6 – Bernard Couch Memorial Handicap – 1200m – 3:00pm
Leading Girl hasn’t been seen for over a year until she trialled last month. She placed second in that trial but there’s always a question mark over fitness when they’ve been off for that long. Other than that, her first up record is great (2:1-1-0) and she loves Belmont (2:2-0-0). If she’s just as good as her old self, she should be winning this. Nerodio has been racing really well this preparation. He only finished second last start, but he did beat Indian Pacific in the process, which is very good form. He loves this track/distance (5:3-1-0) and a good track also benefits him. If he brings that turn of foot we saw at the end of his last preparation and my top tip doesn’t bring her A game, then he can certainly be winning this. Regal Counsel has had five months off and comes into this race without a trial. Without a trial it’s a bit hard to tell where he’s at fitness wise, but last preparation he was racing really well. His first up record is good (5:2-0-1) and he does love this distance (8:4-1-1). He only has to carry 58.5kg with Chris’ claim and has a good barrier. His fitness is the only real concern. Put A Spell On You seemed to really appreciate stepping up to 1400m last start where she won, so it’s surprisingly to see her back at 1200m. She gets in incredibly well in the weights with Madi’s claim and this should hopefully off set the wide barrier.
9 – Leading Girl
3 – Nerodio
1 – Regal Counsel
10 – Put A Spell On You
Race 7 – Seppelt Wines Handicap – 1000m – 3:35pm
We’ve Got Dreams is just a horse you’d love to own. There’s no doubt that she loves this distance (10:5-0-2) and will be leading the race. There are quite a few horses that look to be wanting to take a forward position, so that will make for an interesting race. However, this horse has drawn well and only likes to lead, so I expect her to get to the front without much of an issue. Her track/distance record is fantastic (4:2-0-1) plus fitness and track conditions are on her side as well. This looks to be one of her toughest races to date, but she’ll put in a good run. Money Matters is a clear threat to my top tip! He won two listed races last preparation, after leading all the way, which must demand some respect. One of those listed races was over 1600m but I don’t think 1000m will be too short. He’s drawn directly inside my top tip, so I expect them to be tracking each other in the race, especially as this horse likes to lead as well. His first up record is great (2:1-1-0) and he can absolutely win this without a doubt. Pearls And Prawns won at this track and distance last start, after leading all the way as well. Due to the rise in class, she drops 4kg off last start and it’s the lowest weight she’s carried all preparation. The form surrounding her races isn’t as good as my top two tips, but she seems to like a good tempo race, which she’ll certainly get here. Little Fish hasn’t really been himself this year or at least the winning version that we know and love. At his last start he looks to have gotten too far back in a field of very good horses. Returning to Belmont should benefit (5:2-1-1) plus he has a great first up record (5:3-1-0), though he does come into this race without a trial. Last time he was at this class he won, but I’m just worried about where he’ll settle in the race from that barrier.
6 – We’ve Got Dreams
5 – Money Matters
7 – Pearls And Prawns
1 – Little Fish
Race 8 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1400m – 4:10pm
Tiff Has Spoken seems to just slip under the radar a little bit, despite looking like a good horse. She can run on and showed a good turn of foot three starts ago. She did have three runs in four weeks last month, but I think just spacing her runs more does suit her better. She’s yet to finish outside the top four this preparation and I think the 1400m will suit. This is certainly a tough race, but she should run well. Dark Mission is in a similar boat to Devoted Star (who has been scratched). She too has a good turn of foot, which we saw first up on a soft track. Her only bad runs have been at listed level over a bit of distance, so I would just put a line through them. She is on the one-week backup and has drawn wide but other than that she should run a really good race! Chesten Flyer is no cerise and white horse, but he does just tick along nicely, placing pretty consistently. The form just surrounding his last start is good enough and he’s just an honest horse, always trying his hardest. His track and distance records certainly aren’t the best, but he can run on from that barrier. Great value place bet! Playing Marika showed a good turn of foot last start, coming from last to finish third. She’s third up here so she’ll be fit going into this race plus her track/distance is good (2:0-1-1) and she’ll appreciate the good going. Just a slight question mark about the form surrounding her races.
5 – Tiff Has Spoken
6 – Dark Mission
8 – Chesten Flyer
4 – Playing Marika
Race 9 – Crown Towers Handicap – 2100m – 4:50pm
Queen Takes King is a bit of a hit and miss horse, but when she’s on, she’s great. She won at this track and distance last start, beating Sowar in the process. She does have to give him 1.5kg because of this result but I don’t think it’s enough to make a huge impact. She’s a mare on the way up, but this is a tough race. Sowar is a huge threat to my top tip! When they met last start, he showed a massive turn of foot, which is my main concern here. He hasn’t drawn as favourable but over these longer distances I don’t think the barriers are as big of a deal breaker compared to sprint races. He can definitely win and I’m surprised his odds are as long as they are. Axel ‘R’ Eight is another horse that has had ages away from racing, having not raced his the WATC Derby in 2019. He looked to be outclassed in the autumn feature races so just put a line through those runs. Leading into this race, he improved with each trial which is good to see, before finishing third to Queen Takes King, which looks like the form to follow. He gets 2kg on her but has drawn extremely wide. With no obvious leader in the race too, we could see him go forward, though leading all the way over these distances is a tough ask. His second up record is good (2:1-0-0) and I expect him to improve with one run under his belt. Bombay Style is on the one-week backup and is yet to race beyond 1600m, all of which raise questions. His last three starts have been the best of his career, especially the one where he beat Aberdeen Queen. The barrier and weight are a concern for me too, plus I’ll assuming that Mitchell chose Axel ‘R’ Eight over this horse. If he can handle the above factors, then he should run a good race.
3 – Queen Takes King
4 – Sowar
6 – Axel ‘R’ Eight
1 – Bombay Style
Best Bet
Race 2 – Pletto
Confidence rating
This is certainly one of my lowest confidence weeks. I’m concerned about races 1, 3 and 8, while race 7 and 9 should be a battle between my top two tips. I feel like this weird weather and storm brewing is going to result in a few upsets plus it’s always an interesting meeting when Pike’s not riding. Fingers crossed I’ve tipped a few winners for you all though!
Last Week’s Results
R2-boxed first four
R5-exacta
R9-boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4 – 6/9
Top picks: -, 2nd, 1st, -, 1st, -, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd
Best bet: –
Profit: -7.22
