Belmont 07/09/2019

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 22, sunny

Race 1 – Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1400m – 12:03pm

It’s hard to knock the two wins from two starts for Black Ducati. His trial was slightly disappointing though. Zephyr Queen had a nice win last start and is performing consistently. I’m Icey is performing well too but doesn’t have as strong of form as Zephyr Queen. Divine Shadow wasn’t so good last start but did run second to Zephyr Queen earlier this year.
5 – Black Ducati
2 – Zephyr Queen
4 – I’m Icey
3 – Divine Shadow

Race 2 – Free Entry to Belmont Park Maiden – 1200m – 12:38pm

Nerodio showed ability last preparation and his trials have been good, however, he is up in class. Jovella was knocking on the door last start and will be fitter here third up. Alien from Mars came into this preparation with no trial. She’s third up here with Carbery on board for the first time. Ebony‘sWay seems to be improving with each run.
5 – Nerodio
8 – Jovella
10 – Alien from Mars
9 – Ebony’s Way

Race 3 – Susan Olive Plate – 1200m – 1:17pm

Brave Dream is a winner of both trials, including one on a soft track. This is her first time at the races, so anything could happen but she certainly has the form. Some Sort is definitely a horse with ability, placing in the top 3 at all starts this preparation. He should find the front with Amarillo Rose. AmarilloRose had a nice win last start but is up in distance here. Rio Del Mar trialled nicely and won a group 3 last preparation, so she can definitely surprise here.
8 – Brave Dream
5 – Some Sort
2 – Amarillo Rose
3 – Rio Del Mar

Race 4 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1400m – 1:57pm

Sir Mambo ran second in his past 3 starts. He has a great soft track record (4:1-3-0), with the only concern being that Pike has chosen to ride another horse. Monash has fantastic Kalgoorlie form but can he bring that to the city? Pike is a positive while his soft track record is a negative (3:0-0-0). Locklear is up in class but his previous races have been good, including a good soft track record (3:1-1-0); perhaps just one to watch. Zero Demerits is up in class and third up here but did beat Locomotive last start who came out and won on Wednesday.
6 – Sir Mambo
7 – Monash
9 – Locklear
8 – Zero Demerits

Race 5 – Ascot Racing Carnival Handicap – 2200m – 2:37pm

Spiritual Warrior is starting to build a picket fence and he can definitely add to that here in what seems to be a slightly weaker race. No Say In It got too far back last start but he was performing well before that and should appreciate the step up in distance. Mr Alby is a hit and miss horse but did win 3 starts ago. It would be nice to see At the Ready settle not so far back.
3 – Spiritual Warrior
2 – No Say In It
5 – Mr Alby
4 – At The Ready

Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1000m – 3:15pm

Amelia’s on Fire has trialled very well and competed in group 2 and 3 races last preparation, with no weight we could see her winning. Shinju seems to appreciate the 1000m, though there’s nothing to complain about last start at 1200m where he finished 4th . At Tee Emm should be giving them something to chase down and has a good soft track form in his favour (5:2-1-1). Dawn Mission is a horse I’m willing to give another chance too after a poor performance last start, plus Pike jumps on board.
10 – Amelia’s on Fire
3 – Shinju
4 – At Tee Emm
5 – Dawn Mission

Race 7 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1300m – 3:52pm

Regal Counsel showed his Kalgoorlie form was good, coming out and winning last start. Jedaffair won a listed race last preparation, while her trials could have been better, she obviously has some ability. I loved Cryptic Love’s turn of foot two starts ago. Get OverIt is an ok horse but gets in my top 4 with his soft track record (5:2-1-1).
5 – Regal Counsel
6 – Jedaffair
9 – Cryptic Love
3 – Get Over It

Race 8 – D’Orsogna Handicap – 1200m – 4:30pm

Little Fish has proved that weight is no barrier, coming out and winning last start. Cup Night won all three starts last preparation and trailed well so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he won. Dutch Spy had some nice trials and was racing well last preparation; however, he is up in the weights. Nelson’s Flight has a good soft track record (4:2-0-1) and I think will appreciate going back to 1200m.
1 – Little Fish
5 – Cup Night
3 – Dutch Spy
8 – Nelson’s Flight

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1600m – 5:10pm

Misty Lad has placed 4th every start this preparation so surely he’s due for a win. Beaucount’s last two starts have been good and if they’re winning from the front he’s one to watch. Blackwood River won two starts ago but I’m not convinced about this horse. Purist is a bit of an interesting horse with not so good form but did win at amazing odds last start.
8 – Misty Lad
7 – Beaucount
9 – Blackwood River
13 – Purist

Best Bet

Race 6 – Amelia’s on Fire

Confidence rating

It’s not too bad actually, the winner should be in my top four hopefully. My biggest worries are race 8 with the battle between Little Fish and Cup Night and race 9 which is fairly open.