Belmont 07/08/2021
Conditions
Rail – 6m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 20 degrees, late shower or two
Race 1 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1600m – 11:42pm
9 – Star Present
1 – Buster Bash
3 – Hip Wiggle
2 – Street Fair
Comment: Star Present is looking to make it 3 wins in a row. She’s up in class but Pike jumps on board. She’s yet to race on a soft track or at Belmont, but she seems to have really appreciated the move to WA. Buster Bash is also looking to make it 3 wins in a row. He blew them away last start on a heavy track, winning by 6 lengths. He should easily find the front here from barrier 9 and only has to carry 57kg with Kristy’s claim. He does have a better heavy track record than a soft track, but he’s a threat to my top tip. Hip Wiggle does like things to go her way, but she does have good form surrounding her races. She’s won at this track/distance (3:2-0-0) and on a soft track (6:1-3-1). She also only has to carry 56kg due to Laqdar’s claim. She’s hard to fault. Street Fair doesn’t like getting back, so he did have a few excuses in his past 2 runs. He’s drawn wide here, so will either get back again or have to use energy early on to take up a forward position. It’s concerning that he’s never placed at this track/distance before (5:0-0-0), but he could surprise.
Suggested bet: Star Present, Buster Bash and Hip Wiggle – each way
Race 2 – Crown Towers Plate – 1000m – 12:22pm
2 – The Front Bar
9 – Story Book
10 – My Fury
8 – State Of Power
Comment: The Front Bar is coming off a win on a soft track. That race was also at this track and distance. She’s drawn wide here but does like to lead, so she should easily be able to get to the front. She also finished second from barrier 12 two starts ago. She should be hitting her peak right about now. Story Book was considered good enough by connections to race in a G3 in March. She definitely got too far back in that run though, so just put a line through that. She’s had just a quiet trial leading into this race and maybe didn’t handle the heavy going. She’s unbeaten first up (1:1-0-0) and on a soft track (1:1-0-0). As long as she doesn’t get too far back from the wide barrier, she’s definitely a winning chance. My Fury has slightly different form lines to Story Book, but this filly also got too far back from a wide barrier in a G3. She won a trial leading into this race and has placed first up before (1:0-1-0). From barrier 2, hopefully, she’s in the first few. She’ll only improve as she gets further into this preparation. State Of Power finished third behind The Front Bar last start and gets 2kg on her here. She’s won at this track/distance (3:1-0-1) and placed on a soft track (2:0-0-1). Not without her chances.
Suggested bet: The Front Bar, Story Book, My Fury and State Of Power – each way
Race 3 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Handicap – 1000m – 1:02pm
4 – Wilchino
1 – Express Time
5 – Daishio
2 – Pearls And Prawns
Comment: Wilchino looks to be in for another good preparation after winning last start. She generally doesn’t have many starts in a preparation, so it will be interesting to see how she goes third up for the first time. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and has placed on a soft track (2:0-0-1). With not a lot of speed in the race, she should get an ideal run from barrier 6. Express Time didn’t have enough power to lead all the way last start and this could be put down to the heavy 10 track. She returns to a soft track here which she’ll appreciate (5:2-0-2). She’s also won at this track/distance (6:2-1-0) and only has to carry 58.5kg due to Laqdar’s claim, which puts her back in the race. Look for her to bounce back here. Daishio is up in class but is looking to make it 3 wins in a row. She’s no stranger to a soft track (11:4-0-0) and has won at this track/distance (4:1-0-0). Her biggest advantage is that she only has to carry 53.5kg due to Beaux’s claim, which makes this horse very competitive when combined with that good barrier. Pearls And Prawns brings Kalgoorlie form to this race but has actually won at this track/distance before (2:1-0-0). The soft track will also suit her (2:1-1-0). While Pike jumps on board, the 60.5kg does seem like a big ask in this field, even though she won with 60kg two starts ago.
Suggested bet: Wilchino, Express Time, Daishio and Pearls And Prawns – each way
Race 4 – Bernard Couch Memorial Handicap – 1600m – 1:42pm
4 – Vital Flirt
5 – Mr Delegator
2 – Nelson’s Flight
1 – Aberdeen Queen
Comment: Vital Flirt has just been on fire at her last five starts, recording four wins and a second. She’s up in class but it does mean she only rises 0.5kg off last start’s win. She has won at this track/distance (2:1-1-0) and on a soft track (8:1-1-2), though she may have even liked it a little wetter. It’s just a question of whether she’s reaching the end of her preparation. Mr Delegator has won a race leading into this one, though be it in a lower class. Surprisingly, he’s actually unbeaten at this distance (3:3-0-0), though has never raced over it at Belmont. The soft going will suit him (3:2-1-0), plus he only has to carry 54.5kg due to Kate’s claim, which makes him ultra-competitive. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him winning here. Nelson’s Flight finished second to Vital Flirt last start and actually gets 3.5kg on her here, which is partly due to Victoria’s claim. Track/distance and soft track records are in his favour and I think he can run a cheeky race. Aberdeen Queen has never finished that far off the winner at her past four starts. She steps back up to 1600m here which looks to suit. She does tend to race further back in the field, so she’ll need a bit of luck. This is where Pike jumping on board could prove extremely valuable!
Suggested bet: Vital Flirt, Mr Delegator, Nelson’s Flight and Aberdeen Queen – each way
Race 5 – Mrs Mac’s Handicap – 1000m – 2:18pm
6 – Silkinize
4 – Dia De La Raza
3 – State Attorney
2 – Ambiente
Comment: Silkinize finished second to Dia De La Raza last start and gets 1kg on him here. Given the narrow margin last start, this could be enough to turn the tables. This horse has also drawn a much better barrier. Combined with the fact that he’s won at this track/distance (9:1-4-1) and on a soft track (7:1-3-1), there’s no reason why he can’t win. Dia De La Raza has surprised two runs in a row now. He’s no stranger to this track/distance (19:5-3-3) and looks to be well suited to these conditions. He does rise 2.5kg off last start, but he should be hitting his peak being third up here. State Attorney showed a good turn of foot last start, though that was back in June. He comes into this race without a trial, but he does go well fresh (7:1-2-2). He’s placed at this track/distance (4:0-2-0), but I think he will only improve as he steps up in distance. Ambiente showed great potential at his trials leading into this preparation but hasn’t quite hit the mark at the races. He rises 2kg off last start’s fifth, which isn’t going to make this race any easier. While he has won at this track/distance (6:2-1-0), that was literally years ago.
Suggested bet: Silkinize and Dia De La Raza – each way
Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1300m – 3:00pm
6 – Giant Leap
3 – Notorious One
8 – Vital Blast
7 – London Miss
Comment: Giant Leap won first up after having just the one quiet trial leading into that race. He showed a good turn of foot in that race and from barrier 1, if he’s able to settle a little bit further forward, that turn of foot could be the winning difference. He’s actually yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0), but he does love a soft track (5:3-2-0). Notorious One finished third to Giant Leap last start and gets 2kg on him here. This horse showed an incredible turn of foot in the process and even the narrow margin between 1st and 3rd, this makes me nervous. This turn of foot should mean that it doesn’t matter if he gets too far back from barrier 9. Combined with the fact that this horse is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and has won on a soft track (3:1-0-1), he’s a huge threat to my top tip. Vital Blast finished second to Giant Leap last start, so this really looks like the form to follow. He gets 1.5kg on him here. This horse is actually unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), which could prove to be the winning difference. He has drawn wide though, so hopefully, he doesn’t get too far back. He’s great value though. London Miss brings different form lines to this race but has performed well at her last two starts and maybe that’s because she likes to run for Lucy. She’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0), but her soft track record does concern me a little bit (5:0-0-1).
Suggested bet: Giant Leap, Notorious One and Vital Blast – each way
Race 7 – Seppelt Wines Handicap – 1200m – 3:35pm
2 – Kaptain Kaos
6 – Dunbar
13 – Rocky Path
1 – Zephyr Queen
Comment: Kaptain Kaos hasn’t raced since April and comes into this race without a trial. He goes well fresh (2:1-0-1) and he has a great distance record (5:3-1-0). There’s just a question mark on whether he’ll handle the soft track and where he’ll land from barrier 11. Dunbar is versatile on where he can sit in the run and hasn’t finished far off the winner at all three starts this preparation. He’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0), but he has won on a soft track. He’s definitely going better this preparation than last, so hopefully, he can overcome the wide barrier. Rocky Path showed a really good turn of foot last start. She only has to carry 53kg here due to Kristy’s claim, which makes her very competitive. She’s also won at this track/distance (5:2-0-1) and on a soft track (9:2-2-0). She’s incredible value! Zephyr Queen finally returned to the form that we saw last preparation. She carries 58.5kg due to Keshaw’s claim, which puts her back in the race, plus she should easily find the front from barrier 1. She’s actually unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0) and has won on a soft track (12:3-0-4). There’s no reason for her to run a bad race.
Suggested bet: Kaptain Kaos, Dunbar, Rocky Path and Zephyr Queen – each way
Race 8 – Ngawyni Stakes – 1400m – 4:10pm
6 – True Attraction
9 – That’s Funny Az
3 – Too Close The Sun
5 – Montelena
Comment: True Attraction drops dramatically down in distance here but has previously raced well over 1600m. He’s also unbeaten over this distance (1:1-0-0), loves a soft track (5:3-1-0) and Pike jumps on board again. He should go well. That’s Funny Az comes into this race without a trial, but he has placed first up before (3:0-0-2) and at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). While barrier 8 is wide, it should actually suit this horse, as he’ll be able to get to the front easily. I’d be more confident if he was racing at Ascot, but hopefully, he’ll give them something to run down. Too Close The Sun returns to Perth after a not so successful Melbourne campaign. He finished second in the Railway Stakes last year, so he certainly has class on his side here. He’s also unbeaten on a soft track (3:3-0-0). There’s just the question mark on whether carry 62kg will take its toll. Montelena did finish last first up but wasn’t that far off the winner and probably needed the run fitness wise. She does love Belmont (8:5-0-1) but is yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0). She should get a lovely position from barrier 5 but may just be looking for a touch further.
Suggested bet: True Attraction, That’s Funny Az, Too Close The Sun and Montelena – each way
Race 9 – Congratulations On Your Career Peter Hall Handicap – 2000m – 4:50pm
1 – Tena Koutou
4 – Crossaro
3 – Aragain
6 – Sluice Box
Comment: Tena Koutou is coming out of a listed race where he only finished 1.6L off the winner. He did strike the front of the barriers in that race, which probably meant he had to use some energy early on to get to the front. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and on a soft track (3:3-0-0). He also only has to carry 58kg due to Victoria’s claim, which puts him back in the race. He’ll have to use some energy early on to get to the front from barrier 18, but if he gets an ideal run, he should go close. Crossaro has really turned a corner at his past two starts and is looking to make it 3 wins in a row. Pike is the common factor for both of those runs and he rides again here. This horse is unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0) and should get an ideal run from barrier 7. His soft track record could be better (4:1-0-0), but otherwise it’s hard to fault him. Aragain finished second to Crossaro two starts ago, whereas Crossaro hasn’t had a run in between. She actually has to give him 1.5kg here though. She races at 2000m for the first time but did show a good turn of foot over 2100m last start. She’s no stranger to a soft track too (10:2-2-1), so should go well. Sluice Box has been getting back in his runs and I suspect that will be the case again here from barrier 15. This is his second time racing beyond 1700m, so he should improve here, plus he’s placed on a soft track before (7:0-3-2). He may just find one better here.
Suggested bet: Tena Koutou, Crossaro and Aragain – each way
Best Bet
Race 3 – Wilchino
Confidence rating
My confidence is on the lower side this week. Races 1, 2, 7 and 9 look to be particularly nasty. Race 5 looks to be a battle between my top two tips too.
Last Week’s Results
R1-boxed first 4
R3-exacta
Winners in top 4: 6/9
Top picks: 2nd (no pay), 2nd, 1st, 1st, 3rd (no pay), 2nd, -, -, 2nd
Best bet: 1st
Profit: -1.8 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)
