Belmont 06/07/2019

*Disclaimer for followers: Due to the large increase in people interested in my tips, I wanted to be honest and say that I do not bet on my tips nor do I encourage gambling. I simply tip for fun (bragging rights) and for an online and friendly tipping competition.

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Soft 7
Forecast – Max 17 degrees, partly cloudy with a chance of a shower

Race 1 – Go Racing For Free Before The Footy Plate – 1200m – 12:38pm

No Apology handled the heavy last start, so should have no problems here. He did get stuck back last start and still won, which is a positive. Cryptic Wonder trialled well including one on a soft track. He would only need to repeat that performance here to win, so he’s a serious threat. Rapid Eye Movement didn’t do so well in her recent trial, but she does have form behind Jericho Missile. Phantom‘s Star has trialled a few times over 1000m, including one behind Cryptic Wonder and Laverrod (who I had in my top 4 before he got scratched), so she should have fitness behind her.
1 – No Apology
8 – Cryptic Wonder
9 – Rapid Eye Movement
11 – Phantom’s Star

Race 2 – Barry Cooper Birthday Handicap – 1000m – 1:18pm

Battle Storm just has that winning form that you can’t knock and looks hard to beat here once again. Beat the Devil has very consistent form but is not proven on a soft track. These two should definitely run the first two. Saracino is just not bringing that winning trial form to the races. Pretentious Chant is the only horse left in the race.
5 – Battle Storm
6 – Beat the Devil
2 – Saracino
4 – Pretentious Chant

Race 3 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1000m – 1:58pm

Don’t Fuss is a very consistent horse and simply just got beaten by a better horse in Battle Storm last start. I can see him bouncing back here. Black Sabbath was going well before last start, however that run was on a heavy track which is a concern. Night Voyage can certainly place, having run 3rd in his last 5 starts. His first up record is also good (7:2-1-2). Transgressor got too far back last start and is just ticking along nicely. His soft record is good (6:2-2-0) and second up form is ok (6:1-1-0).
2 – Don’t Fuss
7 – Black Sabbath
1 – Night Voyage
10 – Transgressor

Race 4 – Aquanita Stakes – 2000m – 2:33pm

True Attraction has the best form of these runners, with a great soft track record as well (3:2-1-0). It would be an upset if he didn’t win. Rivalry Galore has placed at this distance and on a soft track (2:0-1-1). He’s only unplaced once where he just got too far back and has a 0.5kg swing on Luke’s Choice, however, he is yet to win a race. Luke’s Choice has won on a soft track (1:1-0-0), though is on the quick back up having raced on Wednesday. Play Hard is the best of the rest and should find the front with The Last Breeze.
1 – True Attraction
7 – Rivalry Galore
4 – Luke’s Choice
3 – Play Hard

Race 5 – Belmont Oaks – 2000m – 3:10pm

Mystery Miss I expect Mr Peters to take out both listed races. She has a good turn of foot the last two starts and has always placed on a soft track (3:1-0-2). Ping Me Another should give Mystery Miss a run for her money as she is a consistent horse and has raced over this distance before. Forgotten Star ran fourth to Mystery Miss last start, but I can’t see her turning the tables unless Mystery Miss doesn’t handle the distance. I can’t see winning Over There but she was performing well prior to last start.
1 – Mystery Miss
2 – Ping Me Another
4 – Forgotten Star
6 – Over There

Race 6 – Karl Bearman 80th Birthday Handicap – 2200m – 3:45pm

Friar Fox is in good form, with a good turn of foot. She won impressively last start after getting boxed in and only finding a gap late, with her distance record also a positive (1:1-0-0). Musical Art has placed at this distance and track combination (2:0-1-1) before. Salon Du Cheval has Pike jumping back on board. Not sure what happened last start but maybe he got too far back and it was too short. Noir De Rue got too far back last start and will hopefully improve.
2 – Friar Fox
11 – Musical Art
5 – Salon Du Cheval
3 – Noir De Rue

Race 7 – Demerit Standing at Rangeview Stud Handicap – 1200m – 4:20pm

I don’t know what happen last start to State Attorney, but he was going well before that. Father Knick ran a great race last start and his second up record is very good (3:2-0-1), definitely a big threat. Route Eighty Eight is a bit of a hit and miss horse, but does have form behind Battle Storm, Don’t Fuss and Festival Miss. Spirit and Fire is up in class but seems to be a good horse coming from the east.
8 – State Attorney
1 – Father Knick
9 – Route Eighty Eight
2 – Spirit and Fire

Race 8 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1300m – 4:55pm

Great Again is performing very well and is one to watch if the track gets dug up by the end of the day. War God beat Great Again last start and gets here better with the weights despite that. Nikitas just hasn’t performed yet and I would want to see an improvement with Pike jumping on board. Mad Brad should benefit from the step up in distance.
1 – Great Again
2 – War God
6 – Nikitas
3 – Mad Brad

Best Bet

Race 2 – Battle Storm (odds are too short for me now though)
Race 8 – Great Again

Multi Bet

Battle Storm into True Attraction into Mystery Miss