Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 06/06/2020

Conditions

Rail – 8m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 25 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – Welcome Back To The Races Handicap – 2200m – 11:53pm

Utgard Loki put in a good enough last start but was no match for Freez’emoff. I do worry that this might be the case again here, but he does get 2kg on her. His form is slightly better than her form too, plus with the small field, he’s not going to get too far back. I’m hoping he can turn the tables. Freez’emoff showed her deadly turn of foot again last start, coming out and beating Utgard Loki and Touch of Silver. As I said though, she does have to give them weight because of that result. I’m interested to see where she settles in the run given that she’s drawn the inside barrier. Whether they’ll go too slow for her does have a question mark over it, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see her winning, especially as the track is a good 4. Touch of Silver was racing quite well at Belmont this time last year, so maybe Belmont is his favourite track. He raced well last start, recording the second fastest 600m behind Freez’emoff. He’s drawn well and only has to carry 58.5kg with Jade’s claim. Volkswagon Frank was disappointing in his previous two starts, but this could be put down to weight and a soft track. He won’t know himself with just 54.5kg, though Lucy did choose Utgard Loki over him. With the small field he shouldn’t get stuck in traffic and may run a cheeky race.
2 – Utgard Loki
3 – Freez’emoff
1 – Touch of Silver
6 – Volkswagon Frank

Race 2 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1200m – 12:33pm

Mr Delegator has had just the one start, finishing second to Cliffs Of Comfort in March. This looks like good form to follow, especially as it was over 1200m. He hasn’t had a trial since then, so it’s a bit hard to tell where he’s at fitness wise, but I expect him to go well. Western Rhythm is making is race day debut, so connections must have some confidence if they’re stepping her out in a Saturday race. She’s had just two trials in her career, winning one leading into this race. She may get lost from that wide barrier, especially as it’s her first race, but at least she has Pike on board to show her the ropes. Rapid Transit trialled nicely before finishing second first up. He did finish second to Zenaze last preparation, who is a very good horse. He’s yet to win in six starts (6:0-2-1) but his two seconds have been over this distance. Seminole Brave was a bit of a Tom Melbourne in his trials, finishing second in all three (two of which were this preparation). The encouraging thing was that he did narrow the margin each time, though the trials do suggest he might be better on a soft track. He should improve off this race day experience and is one to watch going forward when the rain comes.
3 – Mr Delegator
9 – Western Rhythm
1 – Rapid Transit
6 – Seminole Brave

Race 3 – Gourmet Takeaway Plate – 1200m – 1:13pm

Reign Of Fire looks to have a bit of ability based off his three trials, including beating Charleton Eddie in December. He’s drawn well so gets every chance at winning. Miss Ivy League has the most experience in this race which could prove to be valuable. The wide barrier is a concern, given that she doesn’t tend to finish well if she settles near the rear of the field. Hopefully, she’ll jump well and get that forward position, or she may have to use a bit of energy to early on to get there. Private Number is bred to win, being related to horses such as Rebel King and Rebelson. I like that she’s had a trial over 1100m, so that extra 100m shouldn’t be an issue (compared to the normal 1000m trials). She’s definitely a watch and see horse. Nobellity scared us all a few weeks ago, giving the favourite Dunbar something to run down. With so many maidens in the race, it’s hard to tell who will be leading, but I expect this horse to try the “catch me if you can” tactic again. She’s third up so she should be fit going into this race.
5 – Reign Of Fire
1 – Miss Ivy League
10 – Private Number
6 – Nobellity

Race 4 – Perth Racing At Home Handicap – 1000m – 1:53pm

Prim And Proper steps up in class but has a pretty good career record (8:2-3-1). I would have been slightly more confident if it was a soft track, but her second up record is faultless (2:2-0-0). She rises 2kg off last start but has drawn well. La Vina finished fourth in a listed race behind Angelic Ruler at just her third start. That was over 1400m, so I think dropping back to 1000m should benefit, especially as that run was six weeks ago. Huge threat, so don’t rule her out. Downforce has a good first up record (3:1-0-2) and his two trials that suggest this record should continue. He’s faced some good horses and the wide barrier may be a problem but he’s definitely at his best when he’s fresh over this distance. Ziebell looks to be the obvious leader in this race, which should be easy to gain from the inside barrier if she jumps well. She’s been racing well, finishing second last start after having six weeks off. I’m surprised that she’s got a sixth jockey aboard in as many starts but dropping 4kg on last start should benefit.
2 – Prim And Proper
7 – La Vina
3 – Downforce
4 – Ziebell

Race 5 – Raconteur Stakes – 1400m – 2:37pm

Kay Cee is coming off two really good trials. She does jump up in the weights but considering that she won a group 1 last preparation in the Kingston Town, I think she gets off pretty lightly. She’s also proven that she has a fantastic turn of foot and combined with her class, she should be winning. The only things getting in her way is that she is yet to win first up (1:0-0-0) and she may be looking for a touch further. Laverrod is not without his fair share of ability and it feels weird to have him not on top. He did win first up over 1400m so at least we know that he’ll handle the distance. Really the only thing that prevented me from putting him on top was that he hasn’t beaten the same level class of horses as Kay Cee and that he’s also yet to win second up (3:0-2-1). There’s no reason why he can’t win though. Platinum Bullet has faced some pretty good horses this preparation and there are some fantastic horses in this race too. Last start wasn’t her best race, but I’m going to put that down to her getting too far back in the run. I think she may be bettered suited over 1000-1200m but getting Pike in the saddle is a huge positive in a listed race. Power Of St George is another horse that was disappointing last start. The stewards report said that he didn’t handle settling near the rear of the field, so I’m just going to put a line through that race. Prior to that he has been racing well, but I think he could be outclassed here.
1 – Kay Cee
2 – Laverrod
6 – Platinum Bullet
4 – Power Of St George

Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 3:10pm

Massimo is always there but has been missing the chocolates this preparation. His career record suggests his better than that (10:4-4-0) so I’m willing to give him one more chance here. He’s drawn well, has a good track record (3:1-2-0) and good distance record (3:2-1-0) though hasn’t raced over this distance at this track before. Other than bad luck there are no excuses for a poor performance. Black Ducati is another horse that is racing particularly well at the moment. Just this preparation she’s won one race and finished third in two. This start she’s drawn well so should be able to settle near the front, which is where she races the best. With her low weight and class too, she’s a serious threat. Sir Mambo is yet to finish outside of the top three this preparation, where he’s carried 60kg. Dropping to 57.5kg should benefit, while last start he finished second from a wide barrier, so that isn’t a concern here. Jade does jump off in favour of another horse, so I’m not sure what the story is there, but he should be in the finish once again. Fred Dag is a horse I have a lot of respect for, though I don’t think he’s been at his best this preparation. Stepping up to 1200m should benefit, as is returning to Belmont. It’s not a concern if he gets too far back, as he is quite versatile with where he can sit in a race. Looking for him to bounce back here. Good each way bet.
1 – Massimo
8 – Black Ducati
5 – Sir Mambo
2 – Fred Dag

Race 7 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1000m – 3:40pm

Son Of A God is four for four this preparation and it’s hard to see him not adding to that record here. It’s probably his hardest race to date and I’d be more confident over 1200m, but he has a stack of ability. He would have been my best bet, but I think his odds are a touch too short given We’ve Got Dreams is in the race. We’ve Got Dreams would probably be winning this if it wasn’t for Son Of A God. She looks to be leading this race with Kramden and giving them all something to run down. Her second up record is good (2:1-0-0) and Kyra is on fire at the moment. State Attorney is probably a bit of a dark horse in this race. He finished a close second to Condor Heroes first up, wasn’t so good second up but then bounced back third up with another second. It’s hard to tell which version of the horse will turn up here but from the inside barrier, he may be able to settle further forward and then use that good turn of foot. Wanna Be Good is your classic sit and run horse, so don’t freak out too much if he’s last on the corner. He’s arguably in career best form, though his two starts this preparation have been on a soft track. As long as he doesn’t get stuck in traffic he should go well.
4 – Son Of A God
9 – We’ve Got Dreams
5 – State Attorney
7 – Wanna Be Good

Race 8 – Heineken 3 Handicap – 1400m – 4:15pm

Showmanship has beaten better horses in my opinion, which is the main reason why I have him on top over Resortman. I also really like the turn of foot he showed last start. There’s a slight question mark over 1400m but you can’t discount the Pike/Peters/Williams combination. Resortman is unbeaten in three starts and probably would be winning this without a doubt if it wasn’t for Showmanship. He’s proven over 1400m which is a huge positive, as his versatility. However, his last 600m times aren’t as good as Showmanship nor the class level of the horses he’s beaten. He can absolutely win this though and is a huge threat! Moschard has to carry just 60kg with Jade’s claim, though this is still a big ask for a horse. He’s been racing well in a lower class over this distance. He normally likes to run on from the back, though given his weight and inside barrier, it may be beneficial to sit at least mid-field. My top two picks look hard to beat and the weight may just get the better of him here. Bruce Almighty is coming off a win last start over this distance, beating a Saturday class horse. He steps up in class, but it means he won’t know himself with just 54.5kg. I think he has a bit going for him, but again, may be outclassed slightly.
10 – Showmanship
7 – Resortman
1 – Moschard
11 – Bruce Almighty

Race 9 – Schweppes Handicap – 1300m – 4:47pm

Western Pride is looking to make it four wins in a row, after being unbeaten last preparation. Her first trial this preparation was disappointing but then she did finish second to Kay Cee at her second trial. This doesn’t look like an overall strong race and she’s drawn perfectly. No reason why she can’t win. Zephyr Queen has been improving with each run this preparation. She seems to be a horse that flies under the radar though her win last start was on a Wednesday. Given the quality of that win, she deserves another crack at a Saturday race. Trutiara may be facing better horses here, but her country form is pretty good. She hasn’t finished outside the top three in her passed five starts and showed a sensational turn of foot last start. She’s up in class but I think she’s pretty good value. Three Secrets is not an obvious top four horse and another one that is great value! Yes, he has a very wide barrier to overcome and doesn’t get in well at the weights. However, he’s trialled quite well leading into this race and has a pretty good first up record (4:1-2-0).
10 – Western Pride
2 – Zephyr Queen
16 – Trutiara
4 – Three Secrets


Best Bet

Race 9 – Western Pride

Confidence rating

There are some classic head to heads today that excite the racing fan in me. These races being Kay Cee vs Laverrod and Showmanship vs Resortman. Besides these races, I’m mostly concerned about Utgard Loki vs Freez’emoff, race 4 and race 6. My confidence does increase as the day goes on and I’m hoping the “back Pike drink what you like” is true in the quaddie!

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