Belmont 05/09/2020

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 22 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Maiden – 1400m – 12:03pm

Enduring Moment is recording career best results this preparation with two seconds and a third from three starts. All of those results have been at Belmont and he will handle the soft track (2:0-1-1). The step up in distance should benefit him and hopefully see him break his maiden. Wardian is in a similar boat to Enduring Moment, looking to get her maiden win (3:0-1-2). She looks to have ability and I particularly like that she can sit back and run on or take up a forward position, which could make all the difference here from that wide barrier which is a concern. Her form behind How’s The Serenity is good and she should also appreciate the step up in distance. There’s no reason why she can’t win, with the barrier and last 600m times being the only difference between her and Enduring Moment. Yamatai looks to have come back better and stronger this preparation, recording two seconds from two starts. The improved performances could also be put down to her liking a soft track, which she won’t get here (with the track being upgraded to a good 4 since I did my tips). She’s placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0) and has drawn a nice barrier. The form surrounding her races is the only thing that puts me off. Traded Crown showed some ability two starts ago but then did quite a bit wrong last start. With Jordan taking the ride for the first time, he’ll hopefully be able to get him to jump and settle a bit better. He seems to be a horse wanted some more distance so that could result in an increased performance.
1 – Enduring Moment
8 – Wardian
6 – Yamatai
2 – Traded Crown

Race 2 – Crown Perth Plate – 1200m – 12:38pm

Eliminate got a big wrap from trainer Neville Parnham after she won at her maiden start, beating the favourite quite comfortably. There’s always a risk that she won’t put in the same performance here, especially against a much stronger field. However, her trials back up her win plus she drops 2kg due to the conditions of this race. Her barrier could have been better, but she did come from the back last start. Her ability should see her performing well. Starfield Impact won a listed and group three race last preparation which people seem to have forgotten about. Her races this preparation have been good, with the third behind Clairvoyance while carry 60kg looking very good after we saw what she did at her third start. Stepping up in distance plus only carrying 57kg due to Laqdar’s claim certainly swings in her favour. If my top tip isn’t as good as her first race suggests, this horse will be winning. Dom To Shoot raced really well last preparation, placing second in a group 3 race behind Watch Me Dance which is very good form. His only bad race came in the Karrakatta where he simply got too far back, so we can just put a line through that run. His trial leading into this race was very good and while he’s yet to even place first up (1:0-0-0), he can run a good race here. Zadok absolutely flew home first up this preparation. He then finished third to Eliminate, which does look like good form to follow. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t get any weight on her despite that result. He does have a better barrier that her this time and will have fitness on his side. With not many horses here having a deadly turn of foot, if he brings that here he can win despite being a $26 chance. He rounds out an incredibly even field.
7 – Eliminate
1 – Starfield Impact
2 – Dom To Shoot
5 – Zadok

Race 3 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1600m – 1:17pm

Chatter Session has won her past two races, so something definitely must have clicked in her head. Those wins were at a lower class, but it means she isn’t penalised too heavily here because of the rise in class, increasing just 0.5kg from last start. Her last 600m times certainly weren’t the fastest, but she did come from mid-field to win. I suspect she shouldn’t get too far back from that barrier, though she could potentially get stuck on the fence. Stepping up to 1600m should benefit and the soft track doesn’t look to be a problem (4:1-0-1). As long as she can handle the class, she should run a good race. New Amsterdam probably isn’t a horse you’d have in your top two for a metro race given his country form, but he does have a few things going for him. The first is his distance record (2:1-0-1) and soft track record (3:0-2-1), so at least he should handle those conditions. He’s also shown a good turn of foot and he’s got a good barrier. The only thing that could let him down is the form surrounding his races and whether he’s up to these city horses. Friar’s Fantasia has been getting quite far back in her races. However, last start she did show that if she can get out, she can go close. I’m hoping that with the slightly better barrier and the smaller field, she won’t get too far back and can then run on nicely. Thanks to Chris’ claim she does only have to carry 56kg, which is 2kg less than last start, if that counts for anything. Stepping up in distance should only give her more time to catch them. Altamont has been placing consistently over this distance, recording a third and fourth at his previous two starts. He too likes to get back, which looks to be the case again here from the wide barrier. However, at least he can run on. He may just find my top tip too good for the win.
1 – Chatter Session
7 – New Amsterdam
4 – Friar’s Fantasia
10 – Altamont

Race 4 – Vale Delicacy Handicap – 1600m – 1:57pm

Leading Girl was narrowly beaten by Lonsdale Lady last start but I’m looking for her to turn the tables here. She gets 1.5kg on her because of that result, though has drawn a wider barrier. She’s previously shown us that she can overcome a wide barrier, when she finished second behind Free Trade last preparation. stepping up in distance should also help her get the edge over her rivals. She’s only placed outside the top three once in her career (8:3-3-1), though that was when she was third up in her first preparation. I like her individual track (4:2-2-0) and distance record (2:1-0-1) plus she’s placed on a soft track before (1:0-1-0). I’d be surprised if she doesn’t at least place. Comfort Me won a Saturday race quite comfortably a fortnight ago, so deserve a crack at this higher-class race. He too looks to have a tonne of ability, only placing outside the top three in his career once (6:2-2-1), where he finished fourth. He’s got a good barrier and drops 1kg of last start. The step up in distance and incredibly competitive field are the only concerns for me. Lonsdale Lady won last start, but does pay the price with an extra 3kg this time in. Last preparation she won over 1800m, so the 1600m shouldn’t cause her any issues here. She’s also second up (1:0-0-1) and loves a soft track (2:2-0-0). There’s absolutely no reason why she can’t win. The x-factor and weight of Leading Girl and Comfort Me just drew me towards them more. Aconite just seems to be finding one or two horses better lately but has been racing very consistently. The good news here is that she loves this track/distance (6:1-1-3) and only has to carry 56kg with Laqdar’s claim. She should be able to settle into a lovely position in the race and maybe even follow Lonsdale Lady into the race. She’ll have her chance and rounds out another open race.
6 – Leading Girl
8 – Comfort Me
2 – Lonsdale Lady
1 – Aconite

Race 5 – Mrs Mac’s Handicap – 2200m – 2:33pm

Montelena has had no trouble making her way through the grades and stepping up in distance. She steps up to 2200m for the first time, but with the roll she’s on, four wins in a row is very possible. Things have obviously clicked in her head and I love how she can run on too, which should help her overcome that wide barrier. Belmont is quickly becoming her favourite track (6:4-0-1) as is a soft track (5:3-0-1). She can be her own worst enemy, which looks to be the only thing standing in her way. Burning Pride has really appreciated these longer distances on a soft track this preparation, with form behind some very good horses including Sentimental Gift. She’s yet to place over 2200m (3:0-0-0) but this can change here, especially with her soft track record (7:2-2-1) and how she’s been racing now. She too can run on, which is going to make this a very interesting battle between my top two tips. The only reason she’s not on top is that Montelena is on fire at the moment and a horse on the way up. Noir De Rue last two starts certainly haven’t been his best, but I’m hoping he can bounce back here. The 60kg looks to be a big ask, but he did win five starts ago with 60kg over 2000m from an extremely wide barrier. His track/distance record is good (6:1-2-1) and he looks to be unchallenged for the lead, so will be able to set a tempo that suits him. It’s going to be hard to turn the tables on Montelena though. Dark Musket has an absolutely terrible second up record (9:0-0-1) which makes me nervous given that last start he was slow out of the barrier. At least here he has a better barrier and steps up in distance. In fact, his track/distance record is actually pretty good (4:2-0-2). Unfortunately, he just looks to be outclassed here though.
6 – Montelena
3 – Burning Pride
1 – Noir De Rue
4 – Dark Musket

Race 6 – Jolly Beggar Stakes – 1000m – 3:15pm

Money Matters won last start on a soft track, so brings a tonne of confidence into this race. He does increase 2kg off that run, but everything else looks to suit. He’s got a great barrier, track/distance record (4:2-1-0), soft track record (3:2-0-0) and is unbeaten third up (1:1-0-0). He perhaps doesn’t have the class as some of these group wining/placed horses, but he did win a listed race earlier this year. It’s a competitive race once again but one that is right up his alley. Tawny Pete has won three out of his past four races (placing second three starts ago) between December and June this year. He comes into this race without a trial, but if he can lead all the way like he did in those races he could surprise. His first up record is good (6:2-1-1) and he won’t know himself with just 55kg. Look for him to improve off this run but he can surprise. Vital Silver is a group one placed horse, coming second in the Manikato in Melbourne and the Winterbottom last year. He must be respected based on this CV alone! We haven’t seen him since March, so it’s hard to know where he’s at fitness wise. However, he does have a good first up record (6:2-1-1) and has previously won at the track before (5:1-0-2). Class alone should see him winning this, but there’s a big question on the 62kg and time off. Belter put in a breath-taking trial leading into this race, winning by 6.7 lengths! Prior to that (and the trial before) we hadn’t seen him since February, but that trial suggests he’s ready to go. His first up record confirms that (6:1-4-0) and he’s got a good barrier. As he is such a good horse, he also gets 60.5kg to carry, which is 5.5kg more than his last start. However, class should get him through.
4 – Money Matters
8 – Tawny Pete
1 – Vital Silver
3 – Belter

Race 7 – Quayclean Handicap – 1400m – 3:50pm

Utgard Loki is a horse that I like to tip, but with his record it’s not hard to see why. He only had a short spell and the trial leading into this race was ok, but probably way too short for him. His first up record is good (2:1-0-0), he’s placed at this track (2:0-1-1) and does like this distance (5:2-0-1) though has never raced at this track/distance. The 60kg is a concern for me but is a result of a drop in class. He should put in a good run but will only improve with more distance. Sophie’s Song looks to be a dark horse in this race. She didn’t like racing from the back last start, so just forget about that run. While she’ll need to use a bit of energy to get to the front from that barrier, it should be worth it. She loves this distance (9:2-4-3), though is yet to race at this distance at Belmont. Her second up record (3:0-1-2) and soft track record (5:0-1-2) is good. She’s a great tip if you’re looking for value. Zero Demerits has been racing well this preparation, with nothing much to complain about. He’s finally drawn a better barrier, which should help his chances. He also seems to possess a turn of foot to some extent, coming from last to finish third last start. That third was behind Lonsdale Lady, who takes on a very competitive race earlier in the day, with this looking like good form. His track/distance record in particular is good (4:2-0-1) and he can run another good race here. Regal Counsel comes out of the same race as Zero Demerits, with this horse finishing sixth. He only gets 0.5kg on him which isn’t enough to help turn the tables in my opinion. He just seems to run for Mitchell, so it’s good to see the two team up again. He steps up in distance, though has won at this track/distance before (2:1-0-0). Combined with his soft track record (8:2-0-3) and the form surrounding his races, he’s right in this.
1 – Utgard Loki
10 – Sophie’s Song
12 – Zero Demerits
6 – Regal Counsel

Race 8 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 4:25pm

Eeyore Wayz showed us he was a horse to be reckoned with, absolutely coming out of nowhere to win last start. For a soft track, his last 600m time was also impressive. He steps up in distance but won over 1200m four starts ago. He’s unbeaten at this track (2:2-0-0), all of which have come in his previous two starts. He gets a better barrier here and only increases 2kg (which is still 1kg less than his win two starts ago). He looks to be a good horse in the making! Lucky Linda Lulu put in a really nice performance two starts ago, where she won, and backed that up with a solid third when she came from the back. This versatility in where she can sit in the race could be valuable and just give her that edge. I also really like her track/distance record (4:1-1-2). The only thing letting her down is the form surrounding her races. Indian Chant showed a really nice turn of foot when first up at Kalgoorlie. He was first up there and went into that race without a trial, so that just makes the performance that little bit better. His second up record is good (3:0-1-1) and he does like this distance (7:1-0-3). Just a question mark on whether he has the same ability as my top two tips. Sir Mambo just can’t seem to get a break at the moment. The biggest thing in his favour is that he returns to a soft track (6:2-3-0) and that he does like this distance (10:2-4-0). He only has to carry 60kg with Chloe’s claim and has a good barrier. He may just get swapped by a few of these horses running on from the back.
3 – Eeyore Wayz
5 – Lucky Linda Lulu
4 – Indian Chant
1 – Sir Mambo

Race  9– Seacorp Handicap – 2000m – 5:00pm

Uncle Lino looks to be well suited over this distance despite having never won over it (8:0-3-2). He’s drawn wide but I don’t worry too much about that over these longer distances. In fact, it could benefit as it will allow him to get a forward position without being crossed by too many horses (as long as he jumps well). Ideally, he’d get cover from Marxian, who looks to be the leader in this race. He only has to carry 57kg with Chloe’s claim and I’m hoping he can go one better here. Throwdown has drawn outside Uncle Lino which is going to make for an interesting race. However, this horse does possess a turn of foot over these longer distances, so may choose to just sit back. Unlike my top tip, this horse has a better distance record (2:0-1-0). He too only has to carry 57kg with Chris’ claim which evens the playing field once again. The form surrounding his races is arguably better but I’m hoping the consistency of Uncle Lino is the winning difference. Diplomat Express has shown a really nice turn of foot, three and two starts ago. At both of those starts he overcame a wide barrier, so that shouldn’t be a problem here. He’s been racing consistently and definitely prefers it when his runs are spaced out, which he gets here. Great value at $18 in a race that’s anyone’s to win. Freedom By Choice won last start but does face a different type of race here. He steps up in distance which should benefit (7:0-2-1) but then I question that if he can’t win over this distance at Geraldton can he place here. He also rises 2.5kg off last starts win though draws a better barrier. The only run really to complain about was his first up race this preparation. He went into that race without a trial, so probably needed that run for fitness and got too far back, two good excuses in my opinion. You just can’t knock that winning form though!
2 – Uncle Lino
1 – Throwdown
6 – Diplomat Express
3 – Freedom By Choice

Best Bet

Race 3 – Chatter Session

Confidence rating

I thought my confidence last week was bad but then these races came along and boom we’ve set a new low record. The races I’m most confident about this week are races 1, 3 and 5, though I’m hoping my top tips in races 2, 4, 6 and 8 at least place.

Last Week’s Results

R1-exacta
R3-boxed first 4
R7-exacta
Winners in top 4 – 8/8
Top picks: 1st, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, –
Best bet: 1st
Profit: +9.57