Belmont 05/06/2021

Conditions

Rail – 6m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 21 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Tabtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1400m – 11:57pm

3 – I’m Pretty
6 – Interstate
2 – Bollinger Boy
8 – Petite La Femme

Comment: I’m Pretty won a trial leading into this race. Her form last preparation wasn’t the best but I’m thinking that she’s better suited to Belmont. She’s won at this track/distance before (2:1-0-0) and Pike is riding. Interstate comes into this race without a trial. He’s placed first up before though (3:0-1-0) and at this track/distance (1:0-0-1). He may just be looking for a touch further though. Bollinger Boy put in a good performance first up behind Born To Try. He’s placed second up before (3:0-1-0) and at this distance (1:0-1-0), but Belmont is certainly not his favourite track (8:0-1-0). This may be his undoing. Petite La Femme is consistently in the top four but can’t quite get the chocolates. She only has to carry 52.5kg with Madi’s claim which once again makes her competitive.

Suggested bet: I’m Pretty, Interstate and Bollinger Boy – each way

Race 2 – Old Mate’s Sports Bar And Eatery Handicap – 1000m – 12:37pm

2 – Brooklyn Pier
7 – Time Scale
3 – Sunnysilk
1 – Madam Torio

Comment: Brooklyn Pier had a nice trial leading into this race. He goes well fresh (3:2-0-0) and likes this track/distance (2:1-1-0). He probably had some of the strongest form in the race and I’m hoping this is the winning difference. Time Scale was scratched from last week’s race. She’s hard to fault and has recorded career best results this preparation. She’s yet to place at Belmont (1:0-0-0) but she’s a better horse this time round. Sunnysilk won last start after an ideal run. Conditions really look to suit here, as she should get a good spot from barrier 3 and has won at this track/distance before (2:1-1-0). There’s no reason why she can’t win. Madam Torio won a trial leading into this race. She’s won first up before (3:2-0-0) and at this track/distance (5:3-0-0). The biggest positive is that she only has to carry 59.5kg with Kristy’s claim, which certainly puts her back in the race. You can make a case for so many horses in this race!

Suggested bet: Brooklyn Pier, Time Scale, Sunnysilk and Madam Torio – each way

Race 3 – Amelia Park Plate – 1000m – 1:17pm

1 – Ultimate Command
13 – Madam Kisses
14 – Searchin’ Roc’s
5 – Bopping Blue

Comment: Ultimate Command has really appreciated stepping back in class at her last two starts. She has some of the strongest form and should easily get to the front from barrier 2. Combined with her distance record (2:1-1-0), this race looks to suit. Madam Kisses won a trial by 6.8L leading into this trial. It’s hard to tell how well that trial form will hold up here but she’s great value! She’ll only improve off this run. Searching’ Roc’s also won a trial but not by the biggest margin. She has a better barrier than Madam Kisses which could be the difference. Bopping Blue was his own worst enemy at his maiden start. His trial performance before that race was good, so maybe with one run under his belt, he can bounce back here in this very even race!

Suggested bet: Ultimate Command, Madam Kisses, Searchin’ Roc’s and Bopping Blue – each way

Race 4 – Crown Perth Handicap – 2200m – 1:57pm

2 – Adornment
1 – Bella’s Idol
3 – Double Digital
8 – Mrs Brown’s Boy

Comment: Adornment won last start over a distance that I thought would be too short for her. She steps up to a more suitable distance here (5:2-0-2), though she’s yet to race at Belmont. Class should see her get through. Bella’s Idol looks to be in for a good preparation after winning a trial and then placing second first up. His second up record really isn’t the best (7:1-0-0), but he has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). He only has to carry 57kg with Beaux claim too. Double Digital really hasn’t had the best preparation so far. A few things going in his favour here are his track/distance record (1:0-0-1), the same field and that he only has to carry 54kg with Kate’s claim. May just be outclassed by my top tip though. Mrs Brown’s Boy hasn’t finished that far off the winners but will be tested here.

Suggested bet: Adornment – win

Race 5 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Handicap – 1000m – 2:40pm

1 – Long Beach
7 – Amasenus
3 – Eeyore Wayz
4 – Comes A Time

Comment: Long Beach raced wide throughout last start and seeing as he was first up, that probably got the better of him. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0), won second up before (3:2-0-0) and only has to carry 59kg due to Laqdar’s claim. Amasenus recorded three wins in a row at the end of last preparation. She has a great turn of foot which she’ll need from barrier 10 and loves this distance (5:3-1-0). I just would have liked to have seen a little bit more from her trial given her first up record (3:1-0-0). Eeyore Wayz was his own worst enemy first up. His statistics suggest that he can definitely bounce back here though, with his track/distance record (4:3-0-1) and second up record (2:1-0-1). Comes A Time is coming off a win where he probably got his ideal run. He’s drawn barrier 5 here so he should get another lovely spot. He’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). Not without his chances.

Suggested bet: Long Beach, Amasenus, Eeyore Wayz and Comes A Time – each way

Race 6 – Bluestone Handicap – 1600m – 3:15pm

5 – Tri For Us
11 – Piccola Signora
4 – Sky Five
2 – Treasured Crown

Comment: Tri For Us is still yet to place outside of the top three (5:3-2-0). She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and on a good track (2:2-0-0). No reason why she can’t win again here. Piccola Signora is up in class but does seem to have a turn of foot. The 52kg due to Laqdar’s claim makes her very attractive too. She’s also placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). Sky Five has really appreciated settling in the first few at his past two starts. If he can do that again here, he’s great value at $19! Chili Is Hot actually beat Sky Five last start, but only has to give him 0.5kg. She’s been improving with each run and is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0).

Suggested bet: Tri For Us – each way

Race 7 – Raconteur Stakes – 1400m – 3:50pm

7 – Graceful Girl
2 – Billy Ain’t Silly
3 – Solaia
5 – Written Matter

Comment: Graceful Girl won in a really nice fashion last start. She’s still yet to finish outside of the top three (6:3-1-2) and has drawn beautifully in barrier 5. My only concern is that she steps up to 1400m for the first time and the one week backup. Billy Ain’t Silly is on fire this preparation, having won four out of his last five starts (he was second in the fifth). He’s proven at this distance, unlike Graceful Girl, and this could just give him the winning edge. Solaia had a nice trial leading into this race. She’s won first up before (2:1-0-1) and has placed at this distance (3:0-2-0) but has never raced at Belmont. If she continues the form we saw at the end of last preparation, she can win this. Written Matter is unbeaten in his career (2:2-0-0). The only concern for me is the big step up in class. If he handles that though, he can surprise.

Suggested bet: Graceful Girl, Billy Ain’t Silly, Solaia and Written Matter – each way

Race 8 – Furphy Handicap – 1200m – 4:20pm

1 – Excellent Dream
6 – Hot Zed
8 – Chantorque
3 – Serenity Bay

Comment: Excellent Dream has had a while between runs with no trial in between. He does go well fresh though (4:2-1-0) and over this distance (4:3-1-0). He also only has to carry 59kg with Laqdar’s claim. Hot Zed placed fourth last start which was his first time outside of the top three for a while. He’ll have to use a bit of energy from barrier 11 to get to the front but loves this distance (7:4-2-0). He should go well. Serenity Bay just didn’t show her usual turn of foot last preparation. She’s yet to race over 1200m but does love Belmont (7:3-2-3) and has a good first up record (5:2-2-0). She has every chance to return to her winning ways here. Chantorque had excuses last start. She just hadn’t been herself this preparation though. She has some of the strongest form so, hopefully, she can bounce back here.

Suggested bet: Excellent Dream, Hot Zed and Serenity Bay – each way

Race 9 – Cool Ridge Handicap – 1400m – 4:50pm

11 – Bright Diamond
9 – Angelic Miss
5 – Comfort Me
1 – Tinsnip

Comment: Bright Diamond is yet to place outside of the top two (5:3-2-0). She’s up in class but has a good barrier and is unbeaten at this track/distance. This is her toughest race to date, but it’s not hard to see why she’s the favourite. Angelic Miss has a good turn of foot and she’ll be needing that from barrier 11. This is her first time racing beyond 1200m but the extra distance should only give her more time to catch them. Good value bet. Comfort Me is unbeaten over at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), but his overall distance record (4:1-0-0) and second up record (3:0-0-1) doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence. However, he absolutely loves Belmont (5:2-2-1). He looks to be in for a good Belmont preparation. Tinsnip has been in the top four at his past four starts. The wide barrier and 60kg are a bit concerning though.

Suggested bet: Bright Diamond – each way

Best Bet

Race 6 – Tri For Us

Confidence rating

There are quite a few tough races to tip this week. Races 2, 3, 6, 7 and 8 are where my confidence is the lowest, in particular race 2. Bright Diamond did look like a good best bet, but her odds were a little too short for my liking. I’m hoping I’ve picked the right horse for my best bet!

Last Week’s Results

R2-boxed first 4
R7-boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4: 9/9
Top picks: 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, -, 1st, 3rd, –
Best bet: 1st
Profit: +4.94 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)