Belmont 04/09/2021

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Soft 6
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1600m – 12:03pm

2 – General Grant
5 – Nick Of Time
7 – Strawberry Mist
6 – Many Mansions

Comment: General Grant is coming off a win and showed that he can run on from about midfield. He’s up in class here so does drop 2.5kg. He also steps up in distance and hasn’t raced on a soft track before. If he can handle conditions, he should go close. Nick Of Time was disappointing last start, finishing last behind General Grant. He gets 1.5kg on him here and despite finishing last, he was only 3.6L off him and looks to have been way too far back. His distance record makes me nervous (3:0-0-0), but if he gets a better run, he can surprise. Strawberry Mist has had excuses at her past two starts. This distance does look to be her favourite though (4:2-1-1) and she has placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1). Combined with the fact that she’s won on a soft track (3:1-1-0), we could see an improved performance. Many Mansions is a bit hit and miss and the majority of his races this preparation have been at Kalgoorlie. He only finished a length off General Grant last start though and he does have a good distance record (2:1-1-0). He’ll need a bit of luck if he’s going to turn the tables.

Suggested bet: General Grant and Nick Of Time – each way

Race 2 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Plate – 1400m – 12:38pm

1 – He’s A Sizzler
2 – Trix Of The Trade
4 – Cheerful Moment
5 – Elite Fighter

Comment: He’s A Sizzler finally got a much deserved win on the board last start. He’s up in distance, but has placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and loves a soft track (3:1-2-0). He rises 2kg off that run and whether this will benefit Trix Of The Trade, who finished second to him last start, we’ll find out here. This horse will run a good race though. Trix Of The Trade finished second to He’s A Sizzler last start and as I previously mentioned, the weight shift may be enough for him to turn the tables. All of this horse’s runs have been at Belmont (3:2-1-0), so he’ll handle those conditions and the wet track. The only small concern is that he’s up in distance. There’s no reason why he can’t win though. Cheerful Moment also recorded a win last start, though be it in weaker company. He’s placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-1) and has won on a soft track (2:1-0-1). His versatility on where he can sit in a run will prove to be valuable as well. Certainly, don’t rule him out! Elite Fighter finished third to Trix Of The Trade two starts ago, before recording a win last start. His distance record does make me nervous (2:0-0-0), but he looks to be a better horse this time in. He’s also unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0). He rounds out an even race.

Suggested bet: He’s A Sizzler, Trix Of The Trade, Cheerful Moment and Elite Fighter – each way

Race 3 – TABtouch Better Your Bet Handicap – 1200m – 1:17pm

6 – Atlantis Beach
1 – Sassy Trader
2 – Dunbar
5 – Mickey Blue Eyes

Comment: Atlantis Beach is dramatically up in class here, after placing third at his maiden start in a class one. However, his trials suggest that he has some ability and with one run under his belt, he should improve. While he’s yet to race on a soft track, which does concern me slightly, his trials suggest that he should handle it. He’s good value. Sassy Trader is probably a safer bet and is coming off a win. He looks to be bouncing back to his former form and he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). I’m not convinced that he’s a wet tracker (1:0-0-0), but he does only have to carry 56kg due to Keshaw’s claim. This is 2.5kg more than last start, but class should get him through here. Dunbar has been unlucky at his past two starts. He’s drawn barrier 5 here, so hopefully, he’ll be able to settle a little bit further forward, which should help his chances. He’s yet to place at this track/distance (3:0-0-0), which does raise a few red flags, but at least he’s won on a soft track (5:1-0-1). In this open race, he gets one more chance. Mickey Blue Eyes seem to have bounced back second up and showed what we saw at trials. Whether that improvement can be put down to the good track, we’ll find out here, but he did win a trial on a heavy 8. He’s yet to place at this distance (3:0-0-0), but his record over 1000-1300m doesn’t say why he shouldn’t handle 1200m. I’m surprised to see him open that short, but he could surprise.

Suggested bet: Atlantis Beach, Sassy Trader and Dunbar – each way

Race 4 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1600m – 1:57pm

5 – Roman Flirt
8 – Special View
7 – Seminole Brave
1 – Final Chill

Comment: Roman Flirt is coming off a win at Northam, with her and second placed Lonehand Larry putting a good gap on the rest of the field. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and loves a soft track (4:2-0-1). Pike also retains the ride. There’s just a question mark over whether she’ll handle the class. Special View can be hit and miss but didn’t finish that far off the winner last start. He’s up in class here and gets a jockey change, with Shaun taking the ride. This horse has won at Belmont (3:1-0-1) and placed at this distance (2:0-1-1), but he hasn’t faced these conditions together. From barrier 2, he should easily be able to get to the front and give them something to run down. Seminole Brave saw a real improvement last start, finishing third behind Brave Dream. Thanks to that run, he has placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1). He’s also previously won on a soft track (3:1-0-1). The step up in distance could have led to that improved performance, so we’ll see if that’s true here. Final Chill will definitely be looking for further, but he has placed at this track/distance before (2:0-1-0). It also tends to take him a few runs before he’s hitting his stride. He has won on a soft track though (7:1-1-0) and his form is some of the strongest in this race. He’s an outside value chance.

Suggested bet: Roman Flirt, Special View and Seminole Brave – each way

Race 5 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1400m – 2:37pm

3 – Campese
1 – Ohbeeh
5 – Lonehand Larry
9 – Rocky Path

Comment: Campese has strong form surrounding his two runs this preparation. His distance record could be better (7:1-1-0), but it must be kept in mind that 6 of those runs were in Melbourne and the 7th was his first run in WA. He’s no doubt a better horse this preparation and he’s previously won on a soft track (4:1-2-0). He’s third up here, so should be spot on fitness wise and from barrier 6, he should get a lovely run. It’s hard to fault him. Ohbeeh narrowly tasted defeat last start after leading all the way! He’s placed at this track/distance before (2:0-2-0) and loves a soft track (8:3-2-1). He also only has to carry 58kg die to Keshaw’s claim. He’s knocking on the door for a win and will give them something to run down. Lonehand Larry finished second to Roman Flirt last start, who I really like in the previous race. As I mentioned, those two put a good gap on the rest of the field. He’s consistently in the top 4 this preparation and can run on to some extent. I would have liked to have seen a better distance record (3:0-1-0) and soft track record (4:0-1-0), but he can run a good race. Rocky Path seems to run into a lot of bad luck, especially as she likes to race at the back of the field. So, despite drawing barrier 5 here, I suspect that she’ll get back. She’s up in distance here and has placed at this track/distance (3:0-0-1). The extra distance should just give her more time to catch them. If she does, she’s great value!

Suggested bet: Campese, Ohbeeh, Lonehand Larry and Rocky Path – each way

Race 6 – Mrs Mac’s Handicap – 1400m – 3:20pm

6 – La Farola
5 – No Apology
9 – Fangio
3 – Red Publisher

Comment: La Farola put in a nice performance first up. She looks to be well suited here, having placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and on a soft (1:0-1-0). She’s also won second up before (3:1-1-0) and should get a lovely run from barrier 3. It’s hard to fault her. No Apology won first up and as a result, is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). His second up record probably isn’t as strong (4:0-1-1), but he does love a soft track (5:2-1-1). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him win. Fangio comes into this race without a trial, but she has placed first up before (2:0-1-0). 1600m looks to be her pet distance, so 1400m isn’t ridiculous short, plus she’s won on a soft track before (4:1-2-0). She’ll only improve next start. Red Publisher has been consistent at his past 4 starts. He’s having start 117 here, so he is getting on with age. He’s also only placed at this track/distance (8:0-1-1) and on a soft track (14:0-2-3).  He was never far off the winner in those runs, so hopefully, it’s the same case here. 

Suggested bet: La Farola and No Apology – each way

Race 7 – Quayclean Handicap – 2200m – 3:55pm

1 – Born To Try
2 – Picture Perfect
10 – Sugar Cain
6 – Decoy Noxious

Comment: Born To Try literally tries every time. She’s transitioned to the step up in distance nicely and is yet to place outside of the top 3 this preparation. I really like the turn of foot she’s shown on a soft track. She’s won at this track/distance (2:1-0-1) and on a soft track (9:1-4-2). With Keshaw riding, it means that she only has to carry 57kg, which puts her back in the race. The form surrounding her runs is good and I suspect she’ll put in another good performance here. Picture Perfect did finish second to Born To Try’s third last start. Due to Laqdar’s claim, he only has to carry 57.5kg, so he has to give Born To Try 1.5kg here. Despite stepping up in distance this preparation, he is proven at this track/distance (3:2-0-0) and on a soft track (6:2-2-0). It’s hard to fault him. Sugar Cain returned to her best last start, recording her only win at this track/distance (4:1-0-0). Pike keeps the ride and while her soft track record could be better (12:2-0-0), she could surprise. Decoy Noxious has really improved at his last two starts over 2000m and 2200m. Two starts ago he finished 0.27L second to Sugar Cain and gets 1.5kg on him here. His form prior to these two runs wasn’t the great, so I’m interested to see which horse turns up here.

Suggested bet: Born To Try, Picture Perfect, Sugar Cain and Decoy Noxious – each way

Race 8 – Jolly Beggar Stakes – 1000m – 4:30pm

8 – Iseered Iseered
1 – Excellent Dream
3 – Don’t Fuss
7 – Charleton Eddie

Comment: Iseered Iseered is coming off a nice win at this track/distance, which means he’s unbeaten at these conditions. He went into that race without a trial, so while he’s yet to place second up (1:0-0-0), that will hopefully change here, especially as he’s proven on a soft track (3:2-0-0). He is up in class, but otherwise, there’s no reason for him to run a bad race. Excellent Dream was narrowly defeated last start. He’s been improving with each run and has won at this track/distance (5:2-1-0). The biggest thing in his favour is his soft track record though (7:2-2-2). The only concern is that he does have to carry 60kg. Don’t Fuss was just beaten by a better horse last start. He’s certainly no stranger to this track/distance (12:3-3-2) and a soft track (12:4-1-2). Pike also jumps back on board, which is always a positive in a feature race. He can win without surprising. Charleton Eddie was disappointing first up, but he did go into that race without a trial. His second up is much better (3:2-1-0) and he’s unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0). He’s up 3kg on last start, but 57kg isn’t anything ridiculous. From barrier 2, he should easily find the front. He’ll be giving them something to run down and if they can’t catch him, he’s good valid.

Suggested bet: Iseered Iseered, Excellent Dream, Don’t Fuss and Charleton Eddie – each way

Race 9 – Furphy Handicap – 1000m – 5:10pm

10 – Strathmore Rose
12 – Spin The Knife
6 – All Day Session
1 – Weaponson

Comment: Strathmore Rose proved that she was still one to follow this preparation, coming out and winning last start. She’ll absolutely love the soft track here (6:4-1-0) and she’s also won at this track/distance (4:1-2-0). The wide barrier may cause a few problems for her, but I suspect they’ll elect to settle her in the first few. Look for her to make it back to back wins. Spin The Knife started off his career with a win but then connections probably aimed a little bit too high. His trials suggest that he has a tonne of ability and no one brings out a horse’s ability like Pike. He’s yet to race on a soft track or a Belmont, so there is a question mark on whether he’ll handle these conditions. If he does, he’s a winning chance. All Day Session was just beaten by a better horse last start but he really has improved at his past 3 starts. He can run on from the back, so barrier 9 isn’t too bad. He’s also proven at this track/distance (6:2-2-0) and on a soft track (5:2-1-0). Don’t rule him out. Weaponson was disappointing last start but he did miss the jump. He has a much better second up record (3:1-2-0), which is in his favour here. He also only has to carry 58kg due to Kristy’s claim and he didn’t finish that far off the win. He’s often the bridesmaid at this track/distance (6:0-4-0) and on a soft track (6:0-3-0). With a bit of luck, that could change here. He’s great value!

Suggested bet: Strathmore Rose, Spin The Knife and All Day Session – each way

Best Bet

Race 9 – Strathmore Rose

Quaddie

R6: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9
R7: 1, 2, 6, 10
R8: 1, 3, 8
R9: 6, 10, 12

Confidence rating

There are some even races this week! I’ve gone for value in race 3 while races 2, 4, 5, 7 and 8 look to be a battle between a few. For my best bet, I wouldn’t say that race 9 is my most confident race and I’m obviously tipping against Weaponson, but Strathmore Rose seems like good value. In regards to Weaponson, if he jumps he could surprise, but there are some handy horses in race 9. I think once we get back to Ascot, we’ll see an improvement.

Last Week’s Results

R1-first 4
R2-boxed trifecta
R4-boxed first 4
R8-boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4: 7/9
Top picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, -,-, -, 1st, 3rd, 1st
Best bet: 1st
Quaddie: no
Profit: -2.1 ($1ew on top tips (win only R1) & $2ew on bb)