Horse Racing,  Tipping

Belmont 04/07/2020

Conditions

Rail – 5m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 23 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden– 1600m – 11:23pm

Just Under showed a really nice turn of foot last start. She’s drawn better here and seems to be well suited at this distance. The class surrounding her form is questionable and she may be more of a wet track horse but she should go well. Miss Margaux is a pretty consistent horse, finishing in the top five at all of her four starts (4:0-1-1). She does seem to be one of the pacesetters in the race, along with Fair One, but she may have to use more energy to get to the front then him. Given that she likes to lead, the extra 200m may be a slight problem but she is a threat. Spirited Lad doesn’t look to be a superstar horse at this stage, but has found a suitable race here, as it doesn’t seem to be overly strong. He actually finished last to one of my horses, Weaponson, at his first start but looks to have come back better this preparation. He’s never raced at this distance but given where he likes to be in the race, I think connections are smart for stepping him up in distance. Obstination is a bit of a disappointing horse, to be honest. She shows us glimpses of ability but then never backs that up. Being a half-sister to Gatting, she’s bred to win, so I’m willing to give her one more chance here, despite coming off some bad runs. Drawn nicely, isn’t carry a lot of weight and will be fit third up. 
9 – Just Under
8 – Miss Margaux
5 – Spirited Lad
7 – Obstination

Race 2 – Free Entry To Belmont Park Plate – 1200m – 11:58pm

Surveillance was quite impressive as a two-year-old, especially in the two-year-old Magic Millions race. His trials leading into this race have been good, though nothing that makes you say wow. He’s placed second at both of those starts last preparation, so I expect him to go well here. Miss Ivy League is the most experienced horses in this race, which could prove to be very valuable. She’s drawn wide but her past few starts have been good, she’s simply run into better horses. Her only win has come on a soft track, so if the track doesn’t dry out by Saturday, that won’t be a problem. Shock Result has also drawn wide, but given that he likes to lead, this could actually be a blessing. First up run behind Mystical View, who looks to be a very good horse, was good. He should only improve with that race day experience. I’m also assuming that Craig had his choice of the two Paul Jordan horses and chose to go with this guy. She’s God To You could be a surprise winner in this race. She showed a good turn of foot last start and again is another horse that will benefit from the race day experience. Jade does jump off in favour of Blow Me Out, assuming she was offered the ride on this horse, but Shaun is an equally good rider.
1 – Surveillance
2 – Miss Ivy League
5 – Shock Result
11 – She’s God To You

Race 3 – Old Mate’s Sports Bar And Eatery Plate – 1200m – 12:37pm

Mystery Man has had two great trials leading into this race. It is a hard race to gauge, with so many horses have their first or second starts, so I do worry that an outside barrier isn’t the place to be, as he could get stuck in traffic. However, Jordan is riding very well at the moment and should keep him out of trouble. Bumper Humper is on the one-week backup after an alright run last start. She didn’t jump the best and there were a few excuses in the stewards’ report, so maybe just put a line through that run. She steps up to 1200m and hasn’t drawn the best, but Pike does take the ride which is always a positive. La Farola got stuck in a bit of traffic last start after coming from the back. Like a lot of my top picks this week, she hasn’t got the best barrier and to avoid traffic she may go forward as she did at her first start. She’s second up so will have some fitness on her side and is a watch and see horse. Holyoake comes out of Mystical View’s race, where she finished second, which looks to be a good form race to follow. She may have gotten a touch too far back, so I would love to see her settle further forward and then run on from there. Not without a winning chance!
7 – Mystery Man
1 – Bumper Humper
2 – La Farola
12 – Holyoake

Race 4 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1400m – 1:17pm

Showmanship is going for four wins in a row and it’s just hard to see him losing. Good weight, good barrier and Pike retains the ride. The biggest thing in terms of his ability is how versatile he is regarding where he can sit in a race. Not To Be Mist will miss Pike not riding him but he’s a good horse in his own right. He put in a good performance first up, only to be narrowly beaten by Mankind. He gets 5kgs on Mankind here (who isn’t in my top four), though has drawn wider. His second up record is good (2:1-0-0) and he’ll appreciate stepping up to 1400m. Abdicator drops down in class after performing well at listed level. This is probably his ideal distance and he only has to carry 59kg with Laqdar’s claim. No reason he can’t win this. Wrinkly has been racing well with 60kg-63.5kg on his back at his past four starts, so the 62.5kg here isn’t too much of a concern, however, this is 4.5kg more than the next horse. Chris does take over from his brother Brad who isn’t riding on Saturday, so don’t worry too much about that change. He’s just a gusty horse who is definitely one to include in your top four.
8 – Showmanship
6 – Not To Be Mist
2 – Abdicator
1 – Wrinkly

Race 5 – Devil’s Lair Handicap – 1400m – 1:53pm

Truly Great is probably facing his toughest race to date but he seems to have the ability to win this. He does step up in class and has a wide barrier to overcome but Pike will hopefully settle him in a forward position with cover. His trial suggests he’s come back just as good this preparation. Sowar showed a fantastic turn of foot last start, coming from last to finish second. If he can bring that here, he can definitely cause an upset. His second up record is also good (2:0-1-1) and he drops 3.5kg off last start due to the rise in class. Montelena’s only bad runs have come when she’s been outclassed. She has a good track record (2:1-0-1) and good second up record (1:0-1-0). She also won’t know herself either with just 55.5kg on her back compared to last starts 61kg. She can run a good race. Jag The Joker showed a really nice turn of foot two starts ago, though this was on a soft track. The form surrounding her races probably isn’t the strongest and she steps up in class here, however she is very consistent. Good place bet.
7 – Truly Great
9 – Sowar
11 – Montelena
12 – Jag The Joker

Race 6 – Seacorp Handicap – 1000m – 2:33pm

Mood Swings has never placed outside the top three in his career (4:2-1-1) which only started a couple of months ago. He beat Bright Diamond last start which is good form in my opinion, though this is another tough race. I do find it interesting that connections have chosen to drop him back to 1000m when his past two starts have been at 1200m, but maybe there were no suitable races at that distance. Looks to have ability and can overcome the wide barrier. She’s Enchanted was racing extremely well before finishing sixth behind Mood Swing last start. She did get bumped in the straight then, which may have resulted in a loss of momentum. Look for her to bounce back here! Wine Night won a mid-week race last start, which should give her some much needed confidence. She probably brings some of the best form into this race, placing third in two listed races in February. I would say she’s come back better this preparation and is one to watch going forward. We’ve Got Dreams tasted defeat for the first time this preparation last start, finishing fourth last start after missing the jump. Interestingly, Chloe replaces his usual rider of Kyra, but perhaps connections wanted to make use of Chloe’s claim, meaning that she only has to carry 58.5kg. If she can behave herself then she’s right in this race and rounds out a very competitive race!
6 – Mood Swings
9 – She’s Enchanted
5 – Wine Night
1 – We’ve Got Dreams

Race 7 – Kirin Megumi Handicap – 1200m – 3:10pm

Long Beach has pretty good career statistics (5:2-1-1) and had a nice quiet trial leading into this race. His form probably could be better, but I do particularly like him beating Lipstick Flickers and then his third to Talladega (who was sold to Hong Kong for a lot of money). The barrier could have been better, but I don’t think it will matter if he gets too far back in the race. Indian Pacific probably will be winning this, but I’m willing to take a chance with my top tip. However, this horse has nearly perfect career statistics (5:4-0-1) and has beaten Windstorm, who everyone has a very high opinion of. From that barrier, as long as he jumps well, he should be leading with ease. He’s a huge threat and will be giving the field something to run down. Sir Mambo is just a super consistent horse without winning that often. The only bad run in five starts is when he got too far back, so just put a line through that run. He can win this without causing too much of an upset. Nerodio is third up so will have fitness on his side. There’s nothing really to complain about his previous runs and he did win two starts ago. He also finished third to Sir Mambo over this distance in November, though the form this preparation is good, but nothing really stands out. One positive is that he did show a good turn of foot at his last start last preparation.
12 – Long Beach
4 – Indian Pacific
2 – Sir Mambo
6 – Nerodio

Race 8 – Aquanita Stakes – 2000m – 3:45pm

Uncle Dick performed well at his three career starts recording two wins and a second. He also looks to have a very good turn of foot, though I’ll be interested to see if this is still the case over 2000m, a distance he’s never raced at before. The wide barrier isn’t ideal, but not as crucial over these longer distances. He looks to have ability and having Pike in the saddle for a feature race is always a positive! No Apology has improved with each step up in distance this preparation, so I don’t think he’ll struggle too much over 2000m. He did win last week, so the quick back up is a slight concern. However, he’s drawn well and can settle either in a forward or back position with his good turn of foot. Fuhrer was thought to be good enough by connections that they put him in the listed J C Roberts earlier in the autumn. He was disappointing in that, which does raise question marks here as that race was over 1800m. He bounced back well from that, winning two out of four races this preparation. Last start wasn’t his best run, where he got too far back. This horse seems to run for Mitchell, so connections be disheartened that he couldn’t ride because of the low weight. He should go well though. Marxian is an interesting horse in this race, jumping significantly in class. However, he’s one of the few in this race that has previously run 2000m+, so at least we know the distance won’t be an issue. He looks to be the obvious leader with That’s Funny Az and with the light weight, he may just give them something to run down.
8 – Uncle Dick
3 – No Apology
6 – Fuhrer
7 – Marxian

Race 9 – Belmont Oaks – 2000m – 4:20pm

Cambist went close to Kay Cee last time they met but was no match for her turn of foot. As previously mentioned, she also doesn’t get any weight relief because of the conditions and they’ve drawn pretty similar barriers this time too. However, one thing to note is that she has previously raced at this distance (and won at 2200m), which may give her an advantage compared to last start. Whether this will be the winning difference, we’ll just have to wait and see (which unfortunately we won’t see now with the scratching of Kay Cee). Chantrea brings different form lines to this race but is unbeaten in her four career starts. She steps up in class, with not that strong of form lines surrounding her races and steps up in distance, having only raced at 1700m before. She’s won from a wide barrier before, with a good turn of foot, so that could be valuable here, as is Pike. Petticoat Junction has raced over these distances before as well, though with not the same level of success and difficulty as Cambist. From that wide barrier, I do hope Kyra can place her in the first few, though she does seem to prefer to race from the back. This always leaves the door open for the opportunity to get stuck in traffic, but 2000m should give her enough time to get out and get going. Hoping her distance experience can see her place in the first four. Karinjini Aurora got blocked in the straight last start, where she finished fourth behind Kay Cee. Had this not happened, she possible would have finished closer! She had been racing well in slightly weaker company, so deserved a crack at those previous two listed races and now this one. The distance is a query, as it is with many of these horses, but I think she’ll appreciate the extra distance.
2 – Cambist
4 – Chantrea
5 – Petticoat Junction
3 – Karijini Aurora

Race 10 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1600m – 4:55pm

Serenity Bay is yet to place outside the top three in her eight career starts (8:4-3-1) and looks to be set for another good preparation once again. She has quite a few positives heading into this race, including winning last start, having a good second up record (2:1-1–0), drawn nicely and gets in well with the weights. It’s probably one of her toughest races to date plus she steps up to 1600m for the first time but ability should see her winning this. King Blitz has been racing well, with recording two wins, a second and a third for his past four starts. He actually ran the fastest 600m last start so this turn of foot could be an against my top tip. Weight isn’t an issue, as he only had to carry 57kg with Laqdar’s claim and he won carrying 62kg this preparation. Don’t rule him out! Burning Pride looks to have come back in a fabulous fashion, winning two trials leading into this race. Pike jumps off in favour of my top tip, plus her first up record isn’t the best (5:1-1-0) and she’s drawn wide. However, I think she’s worth a cheeky each way bet (at good odds!). Fred Dag seems to be getting a touch too far back in his runs and facing some tough opponents. This certainly doesn’t look like an easier race but stepping up in distance will certainly benefit. His last start run was good and if he settles into a nice position, he’ll be right in the finish.
14 – Serenity Bay
1 – King Blitz
8 – Burning Pride
5 – Fred Dag


Best Bet

Race 4 – Showmanship

Confidence rating

Can Pike please stop riding so many good horses, because it makes me nervous having him on top for that many races (5/10 races today). I’m definitely taking a risk on a few of his rides though. My biggest concerns today are race 1, 5, 6 and 7 (mostly just Indian Pacific though). I tried a new technique this week with my tips too where I type out my top four and then go back to say why I tipped them. Hopefully, this will stop me from overthinking things and conclude in better results! One thing I’d like to add this week, I’m going to say that when comparing the Aquantia Stakes and Belmont Oaks, I think the 3-year-old fillies are much better than the colts this year. I’ll be interested to see if my theory is true when we get to the spring/summer carnival.

Last Week’s Results

R4 – boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4 – 4/9
Top picks: 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 1st, -, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, –
Best bet: 1st
Profit: +1.02

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