Belmont 03/07/2021

Conditions

Rail – 6m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 21 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1600m – 11:59pm

1 – Speedy Miss
2 – Bollinger Boy
4 – Street Fair
6 – Hip Wiggle

Comment: Speedy Miss is racing for the third Saturday in a row. She steps up in distance, but in a slightly smaller field, she shouldn’t get as far back. She also only has to carry 58.5kg due to Kristy’s claim. If she can handle the distance, she should go well. Bollinger Boy looks to be better suited at this distance, but his track/distance record doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence (6:0-1-0). With a good barrier and good form, he could surprise. Street Fair is looking to make it three wins in a row. He’ll benefit from the small field as he doesn’t necessarily have the turn of foot to overcome the wide barrier. My biggest concern is his track/distance record (4:0-0-0). Hip Wiggle’s last two runs at Kalgoorlie have been good. 1600m is definitely her favourite distance (7:3-1-2) and she has previously won over 1600m at Belmont (2:1-0-0), but that was last year. The soft track will suit (5:0-3-1), but she may just find one better.

Suggested bet: Speedy Miss and Bollinger Boy – each way

Race 2 – Breast Cancer Research Centre Of Wa Plate – 1000m – 12:39pm

9 – Wuhan Warrior
6 – Forever Autumn
4 – Nights Mystery
1 – Beads

Comment: Wuhan Warrior has shown great potentially at all of his trials, but his one this preparation was extra impressive, winning by 8.2L. His only start was in the listed Supremacy, and he went into that race without a trial, so maybe he wasn’t ready yet. I’m hoping his trial form holds up here. Forever Autumn is in the exact same boat as Wuhan Warrior, however, this horse’s winning trial wasn’t as impressive. I’m worried that he may get lost from the wide barrier, but otherwise, he should improve off this run. Nights Mystery finished second at his first start after coming off a winning trial. That race was over these exact conditions (1:0-1-0) and he’s drawn beautifully here. No reason why he can’t go one better! Beads is unbeaten over this track/distance (1:1-0-0) thanks to last start. He’s been improving with each run and should be hitting his peak here. There is just a question mark over whether he’ll get too far back or have to use too much energy from the wide barrier.

Suggested bet: Wuhan Warrior, Forever Autumn, Nights Mystery and Beads – each way

Race 3 – The Walker Family Handicap – 1200m – 1:18pm

5 – Dunbar
10 – Real Grace
3 – Bedouin Belle
2 – London Miss

Comment: Dunbar looks to have found his form from two preparations ago. He’s unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0), which is one of his biggest drawcards. He’s also won at this track (3:1-1-0) and distance before (2:1-0-0), but not together. I just hope he doesn’t get too far back and stuck in traffic from the wide barrier. Real Grace did have a few excuses last start. Her trials suggested that she was ready to go this preparation, so hopefully, she can bounce back here. Pike does jump off in favour of Dunbar, but this horse has drawn a better barrier. It’s hard to split the cerise and white horses. Bedouin Belle is consistently in the first five. She does seem to do better when she settles in the first few and this does look to be a little bit difficult here from barrier 8. She’s great value though given that she’s placed at this track/distance every time she’s faced these conditions (2:0-2-0). London Miss improved with each trial and won her latest one. She’s won over this distance before (3:1-0-1) and placed first up (3:0-0-1), but it actually yet to race at Belmont. Barrier 3 and the 56.5kg due to Kristy’s claim makes her attractive, but her soft track record does turn me off slightly (4:0-0-1).

Suggested bet: Dunbar, Real Grace, Bedouin Belle and London Miss – each way

Race 4 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1000m – 1:53pm

3 – Amasenus
8 – Lipstick Flickers
7 – Brooklyn Pier
4 – Miss Frost

Comment: Amasenus is looking to make it six wins in a row. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and is very versatile on where she can sit in the run. She’s up in class, but I think her soft track record is where she is most vulnerable (2:0-1-0). Lipstick Flickers won a trial leading into this race. A lot of statistics are in her favour, including first up record (5:1-0-3), track/distance record (1:0-1-0) and being unbeaten n a soft track (1:1-0-0). This makes her a huge threat to my top tip. Brooklyn Pier just found a few better last start. He drops down in class here but has drawn wide. He loves this track/distance (3:2-1-0) and has some good form surrounding his races, but he’s yet to face a soft track. Whether he can handle it or not will be the difference in this classy race. Miss Frost was first up without a trial last start. Her form towards the end of last preparation was quite good, so she should improve here being second up (4:0-1-2). From barrier 3, she shouldn’t get as far back either. She’s placed at this track/distance (2:0-0-1) and should run another good race.

Suggested bet: Amasenus, Lipstick Flickers, Brooklyn Pier and Miss Frost – each way

Race 5 – Byron Bay Premium Lager Handicap – 1400m – 2:25pm

1 – Timely Outburst
6 – Real Charisma
3 – Jedi Mind
9 – My Rani

Comment: Timely Outburst is a horse that is going places. She’s yet to place outside of the top two in her career (6:4-2-0) and has some really good form surrounding her races. She races at 1400m for the first time but did place second over 1300m three starts ago. She only has to carry 57kg with Holly’s claim which puts her back in the race and she likes Belmont (3:1-2-0). Real Charisma is up ever so slightly distance after recording a win last start over 1300m. She’s dramatically up in class here and has drawn wide, but she’s yet to place outside of the top 3 in her career (4:2-1-1) and is unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0). She’s a horse with ability but is that enough to win? Jedi Mind has been racing really well this preparation, recording career best results. He’s shown a good turn of foot and has placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1). His soft track record just leaves him a touch vulnerable (3:0-0-1). My Rani’s two races have been at Pinjarra for two thirds (2:0-0-2). Both runs have been on a soft track too, so she should handle that here. I like the turn of foot she showed last start and she’ll be needing that from the wide barrier. She’s significantly up in class but that makes her great value.

Suggested bet: Timely Outburst, Real Charisma, Jedi Mind and My Rani – each way

Race 6 – Peninsula Dining Room Handicap – 1400m – 3:05pm

7 – Comfort Me
3 – Excellent Dream
10 – Eeyore Wayz
8 – Moschard

Comment: Comfort Me has improved this preparation, having yet to finish outside of the top two. He’s looking to make it three wins in a row here and there is some great form surrounding his previous wins. He’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (3:3-0-0) and has won on a soft track (4:1-2-0). He ticks a lot of boxes. Excellent Dream got too far back two starts ago, but otherwise has been racing really well. He’s drawn wide here, so I do worry that he’ll get back again. He also steps up to 1400m for the first time. He should run a good race. Eeyore Wayz just seems to be finding a couple of better horses lately. He steps up to 1400m, but I do question whether he’s a better 1000m horse. If the track stays in the soft track range, that will benefit him (5:2-0-2). Moschard does have a good turn of foot. From barrier 4 though, I suspect he’ll be able to settle a little bit further forward though. He’s no stranger to this track/distance either (8:2-1-1).

Suggested bet: Comfort Me and Excellent Dream – each way

Race 7 – Belmont Oaks – 2000m – 3:35pm

4 – Baronova
1 – Sheza Chalmer
2 – Tri For Us
7 – Rebel Heart

Comment: Baronova is one of the few horses that is proven over these longer distances. She’s recorded 3 wins leading into this race over 2200-2300m, which gives me confidence. I also really like the turn of foot she’s shown over these distances on a soft track. She’s dramatically up in class but I’m hoping her form sees her win. Sheza Chalmer won the Belmont Guineas, a key lead up race to this race. It’s hard to fault her, but I am surprised to see her odds so short seeing as there is just the question mark on whether she’ll handle the distance. Tri For Us finished third behind Sheza Chalmer last start. She doesn’t get any weight on her though due to the conditions of this race. She’s slightly more consistent that Sheza Chalmer, having yet to place outside of the top three (7:3-3-1). Again, it’s just the question of whether she’ll handle the distance. Rebel Heart placed fourth over 2100m last start, so she should be able to handle the distance. Pike jumps on board which is always a positive in a feature race too.

Suggested bet: Baronova, Sheza Chalmer and Tri For Us – each way

Race 8 – Aquanita Stakes – 2000m – 4:05pm

3 – Crescent City
4 – Tradem’ In
7 – Tena Koutou
1 – Kerman Rock

Comment: Crescent City is looking to make it three wins in a row. He’s handled each step up in distance so far, so hopefully, he’ll handle the 2000m too. He’s drawn nicely in barrier 7 and Pike keeps the ride. Tradem’ In has shown a good turn of foot, including on a soft track. He’s up in class but doesn’t get any weight relief due to the conditions of this race. Other than being up in distance, he’s hard to fault. Tena Koutou deserves a crack at this. His two wins leading into this race have been in weaker races, but you can’t knock winning form. Plus, those races were on a soft track too. It looks like he should benefit from the step up in distance. Kerman Rock surprised a few people last start, finishing second in the Belmont Guineas. He’s form before that was pretty bad, but if you look back to April, he did finish third in the Derby. This suggests that he will handle the distance here and if he repeats that performance, he could go close.

Comment: Crescent City, Tradem’ In, Tena Koutou and Kerman Rock – each way

Race 9 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1600m – 4:40pm

2 – I’m Pretty
9 – Tiff Has Spoken
5 – Sowar
14 – Melarab

Comment: I’m Pretty is looking to make it three wins in a row. She’s up in class but as a result, she does drop 1.5kg off last start’s win. She races beyond 1400m for the first time, but other than that she’s hard to fault. Tiff Has Spoken is coming off a win at this track and distance, resulting in him being undefeated at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He beat Tri For Us in the process which looks like good form to follow. He’s just a horse that is consistently in the first few. Sowar just found a few better last start. He’s no stranger to this distance (8:2-2-2) and has placed at this track/distance before (3:0-0-2). He does have a turn of foot and he’ll absolutely be needing that for barrier 14. Melarab just got too far back last start, so put a line through that run. From barrier 1, he should be able to find the front easily, which is where he does his best work. He only has to carry 51kg due to Beaux’s claim. He comes into this race without a trial, but has won first up before (2:1-0-0).

Suggested bet: I’m Pretty and Tiff Has Spoken – each way

Best Bet

Race 6 – Comfort Me

Confidence rating

My confidence really isn’t that good this week. The races I’m most confident about is races 6 (hence Comfort Me is my best bet) and I’m Pretty. I’m hoping the track doesn’t dry out too much because I have tipped on the softer side.

Last Week’s Results

R6-first four ($10,220)
R9-quinella
Winners in top 4: 8/9
Top picks: -, 3rd, -, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, -, 2nd
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: +7 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)