Belmont 01/08/2020
Conditions
Rail – 4m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 19 degrees, mostly sunny
Race 1 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1200m – 12:16pm
Fire Goddess is coming off two nice seconds after running from the back in the first and leading in the second. The form surrounding her races isn’t the strongest and she rises 4kg off those runs, but as drawn nicely here. Sound Awake looks to be better suited on a good track (and I expect the track to have dried out by Saturday morning – which it doesn’t seem to have happened) so put a line through last start. She’s drawn wide, so she may get a little bit further back then connections would like. If she brings her She’s Enchanted form, she’ll run a good race. Petite La Femme showed an incredible turn of foot first up this preparation, coming from last to finish second. She then got stuck in traffic last start, so probably didn’t show us what she’s truly made of then. She steps up in distance but given her racing pattern, this doesn’t look to be a problem. She can win without surprising. Goodbyefeds is a pretty consistent horse without winning a race (11:0-3-3). His second up record isn’t good (2:0-0-0) but he should appreciate stepping up to 1200m. His barrier is ok and Pike is always a positive but his odds are a bit too short for me.
6 – Fire Goddess
8 – Sound Awake
7 – Petite La Femme
1 – Goodbyefeds
Race 2 – Vale Harvey Crossman Plate – 1000m – 12:56pm
Panzdown proved that his trials were just as good as they looked, coming out and winning at his first start. With that experience under his belt, he should only improve. He doesn’t have the class of wins as Starfield Impact, but it’s interesting to note that this horse’s last 600m was faster on a soft track than Starfield Impact’s last four races on a good track. I’m hoping this fun fact will be the winning difference. Starfield Impact won a group 3 earlier in the year, which people seem to forget about. Those classy wins do mean that she has to carry 60kg. However, her trial was good, and she has won first up before (2:1-0-0). The weight is the only thing standing in her way, so if she can handle that she can certainly win. Clairvoyance is in a similar boat to Panzdown. She won at her first race after coming off some nice trials. The thing that surprised me the most was that she actually ran the second fast 600m in that race, despite leading all the way. From that barrier, as long as she jumps well, she should be able to find the front easily again. If that’s the case, she’ll be given them all something to run down and there’s no reason she can’t win. How’s The Serenity ran on nicely at her first race in March. After four months off, she looks to have come back better, winning a trial over this distance which is always nice to see. She’s got a great barrier and weight and rounds out a very even top four!
2 – Panzdown
1 – Starfield Impact
4 – Clairvoyance
8 – How’s The Serenity
Race 3 – Crown Perth Handicap – 2100m – 1:36pm
Burning Pride looks to have found a very suitable race here. Based on last starts improved performance, she’s most comfortable at distances like this. Her second behind Sentimental Gift was very good, though she was no match for her. I’ll be interested to see where she lands from that barrier, but hopefully it’s in the first few. Marocchino has been racing well at listed level behind some great horse, placing second and third respectfully. Considering these results, he gets in incredibly well at the weights. The distance is in his favour, as is his barrier. The only concern is that he’s yet to win on a good track (9:0-1-2). Dark Prospect just doesn’t seem to have luck on his side. His races haven’t been bad, but nothing outstanding either. His best race was five starts ago, where he finished second behind Showmanship, where he showed a great turn of foot. That race was over 1400m, so whether he’d be better dropping down in distance has a question mark over it. As long as he can get out, he should go well. Gangbuster seems to do his best racing at Kalgoorlie around this time last year. He had seven months off the scene before returning in June this year. We saw a glimpse of that ability second up at Kalgoorlie, but then he seemed to hit a flat spot since coming to Belmont. He’s a hit and miss horse, but will appreciate the distance and only has to carry 57kg with Laqdar’s claim which puts him back in the race.
2 – Burning Pride
8 – Marocchino
7 – Dark Prospect
1 – Gangbuster
Race 4 – Barry McGougan 70th Birthday Handicap – 1600m – 2:13pm
Not To Be Mist is just an ultra-consistent horse, with this preparation being no different. He seems to have simply been beaten by a better horse, though getting back in his races probably hasn’t helped. This is another competitive race, but he’s got a good turn of foot and has drawn well. Lordhelpmerun was disappointing first up, especially as we know he’s better than that. That race was on a soft track and he went into it without a trial, so maybe he was a bit underdone fitness wise. He’s drawn wide here and rises 1kg off last start but look for him to bounce back to his winning self with the increased distance. Fred Dag is racing really well without recording a win, though he did go close two starts ago. I’d like to see him settle a little closer to the speed, just because his turn of foot doesn’t seem to be as deadly as some other horses. The distance and weight are all to suit and he should be right in the finish once again. Military Ruler is a bit of a surprise horse, especially with his second to Windstorm three starts ago. There’s no doubt that connections would have been praying for rain, but I think his performances on a good track have been nice. Three of his wins have come at this distance, but he might just find one or two better here.
3 – Not To Be Mist
1 – Lordhelpmerun
6 – Fred Dag
5 – Military Ruler
Race 5 – Quayclean Handicap – 1300m – 2:55pm
Serenity Bay is interesting on the one-week backup, after finishing third behind Inspirational Girl. With no Peters Investment horses in the race, she gets Pike back on board. That, combine with the step down in distance and her amazing career statistics, having never finished outside the top three (10:4-3-3) should all help offset the wide barrier. Position Of Power has been racing extremely well this preparation. Arguably, he probably goes better on a soft track, but his second last start on a good track was great. He won’t know himself with just 54kg on his back due to Chris’ claim and has won from a wide barrier before. He’s on the one-week backup but is a huge threat to my top tip! Crystal Spirit is a cheeky place bet in my opinion. He had two years off before returning to the races last month. His trials and that run, where he finished third, suggest that he’s come back pretty well. His second up record isn’t the best (3:0-1-0), but he should improve greatly fitness wise off that run. Obviously, the 60kg has a huge question mark though. Inflation does rise in class after finishing second to Position of Power last start. He gets 1kg on him for that result, but it’s hard to see that causing the tables to turn. He should be able to get to the lead easily from that barrier and with that weight he may be able to go all the way. He’s a watch and see horse for me though.
8 – Serenity Bay
4 – Position Of Power
2 – Crystal Spirit
7 – Inflation
Race 6 – Seacorp Handicap – 1200m – 3:25pm
Born To Try looks to be a horse with a tonne of ability. She’s never placed outside the top three in her career (5:2-2-1) and looks to have come back just as good, winning two trials leading into this race. Her first up record is good (1:0-1-0) but I do worry about the wide barrier and the fact that Pike has chosen Dark Mission over her. Dark Mission showed an amazing turn of foot last start, coming from near last to win. She was thought highly enough to tackle the filly listed races in the summer/autumn but did fail to fire there. They were her only two starts outside of the top three. In the time off I expect her to have matured and start to put things together, which combined with her turn of foot, makes her a lethal horse. She’s a massive threat! Rewrite The Stars is coming off two wins, though these were at a lower class. She’s certainly improved this preparation, which is always good to see for connections. Her thirds behind Showmanship and Bright Diamond are strong form but my top two tips are just in a class of their own here. Apollo is one of the most experienced horses in this race. He has been placing well but hasn’t recorded a win since May last year at Albany. He does have a nice barrier and can run on, but I think he’ll be outclassed here when it comes to winning.
9 – Born To Try
5 – Dark Mission
2 – Rewrite The Stars
3 – Apollo
Race 7 – Jockey Celebration Day Sprint – 1000m – 4:00pm
Essential Spice was just breathtaking in the listed Beaufine and looks to be in with a good chance here. There’s no doubt that this is her ideal distance and she has the class to be winning. However, she rises 5kg off last start and has drawn extremely wide compared to her previous starts. She’ll try her best, but these factors may just get the better of her. We won’t know till she runs though. Floyd was racing well last preparation and can continue that form here, winning a trial leading into this race. He may be looking for a touch further but this by no means is too short. Saracino doesn’t have the same career statistics as his stable mate Floyd but he did finish second to Essential Spice last start, where he showed a good turn of foot. He gets 2.5kg on her here and given the narrow margin, that could make a huge difference. He may be slightly outclassed, but I think he’s a great place bet. Jericho Missile certainly didn’t run his best race last start. That was on a soft track so hopefully by this time of the day the track would have dried out. 1200m looks to be his pet distance but I don’t think this is too short for him. The biggest thing in his favour is his second up record (2:1-1-0).
3 – Essential Spice
5 – Floyd
6 – Saracino
10 – Jericho Missile
Race 8 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1000m – 4:35pm
Cliffs Of Comfort is a bit of a freak, win all three races last preparation. He beat some good horses in the process, which just adds to how impressive he is. The wide barrier is a concern as he may need to use some energy early on to get to the lead. He also could be forced to race wide. Other than that, there’s no reason he can’t win. Silknise has an opposite racing style to Cliffs Of Comfort, which makes this such an interesting race. His turn of foot last start was amazing, and he’s drawn way better than my top tip. I’m hoping that the Laverrod form holds up, as this horse finished fifth to Laverrod last preparation and Cliff Of Comfort has beaten him, which suggests he should be winning here. However, anything can happen in racing and this horse is the real deal! Shinju comes out of the same race as Silknise, where he finished fifth. However, he probably just got a bit too far back in that race and was first up. His second up record is a lot better (4:1-2-1) and he’s drawn a more favourable barrier. The good track and distance conditions will suit him. Missing Pro is coming off a win, though at a lower class. She’s recorded two wins in the past five starts, though it’s the form surrounding the horses that she’s placed behind that is the best. She runs well from a wide barrier and if they’re going fast, she’s one to watch.
7 – Cliffs Of Comfort
10 – Silknise
6 – Shinju
8 – Missing Pro
Race 9 – Go Racing For Free Before The Footy Handicap – 1600m – 5:10pm
Bombay Style seems to have just clicked, winning two in a row leading into this race. I particularly like last start’s race, where he beat Aberdeen Queen, as I have a high opinion of her. He’s drawn the best he has for a while, though hopefully that doesn’t mean he’ll get stuck on the fence. Montelena is an interesting horse that I can’t quite wrap my head around. She seems to have some untapped ability but doesn’t always bring that to the races. She ran a great race behind Money Matters in February and then finished third with 61kg on her back this preparation. This looks like a very suitable race and she should go well. Aconite is probably not an obvious top four horse. She definitely goes better on a soft track but the thing that draws her to be the most is her race records. This distance is clearly one of her favourites (6:1-1-2) while her track/distance record is pretty good (3:1-0-1). She really hasn’t put in a terrible run and I think she’s a bit of value if that’s what you’re looking for. Fire Maker has been outclassed in his previous races, though he did manage to hold his own and finish third to Windstorm three starts ago. I do worry about the wide barrier, but this doesn’t look to be an overly strong race full of superstars. Outside chance.
3 – Bombay Style
11 – Montelena
1 – Aconite
6 – Fire Maker
Best Bet
Race 4 – Not To Be Mist
Confidence rating
I think there are some great races today, but race 2 looks to be a cracking one and not just because Clairvoyance is in it. Besides that race, I’m least confident about races 7 and 9, while races 5, 6 and 8 look to be a battle between my top two tips! Serenity Bay would have been my other best bet, but she was just a bit too short for my liking, especially with Position Of Power in the race. I also really like Born To Try, but again, Dark Mission makes me nervous. Personally, I’m hoping to start off the season with a win both as an owner and a tipster!
Last Week’s Results
R8 – boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4 – 7/9
Top picks: -, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, -, -, 1st, 1st, 3rd
Best bet: 1st
Profit: -4.56
