Ascot 31/10/2020

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 25 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – Crown Perth Plate – 1000m – 12:39pm

Chantorque looks to be a very good horse and is a bit unlucky that she’s running into Clairvoyance here (before scratchings). She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0) while running good times. With the small field she won’t get too far back, though I think they’ll be hoping to follow us into the race. She rises 2kg off last start’s win, but she has placed second with 56kg before. Nothing really to complain about other than she might just find one better here (which is not the case anymore). Charleton Eddie is a very good horse but was no match for Clairvoyance last start (which was actually his first time out of the top three in his career). He actually gets 3kg on her due to Laqdar’s claim (only has to carry 57.5kg) and Clairvoyance’s rise in the weights, but it’s hard to see this resulting in him turning the tables, given how convincingly she won by. He can run a very good race, but I’m just not sure he can handle Clairvoyance’s hot tempo. Our Danni has probably really benefited from the few scratchings there has been already since final fields have been released. She was probably a touch outclassed last preparation but her performances this preparation have been good. The form behind Brooklyn Pier and Gemma’s Son is particularly good. Dropping back to 1000m looks to be an advantage (3:0-1-1) and not leading will also suit. She drops 2.5kg off last start’s run and will come into barrier three with scratchings. She may just be outclassed here. All Day Session is literally the last horse left in the race. He did end last preparation well but his trial wasn’t very flashy leading into this race. He’s yet to place first up (2:0-0-0), but has placed at this distance before (3:0-1-1). I think he’ll find one or two better here.
5 – Chantorque
1 – Charleton Eddie
4 – Our Danni
3 – All Day Session

Race 2 – Tabtouch – Westspeed Platinum Series Heat 2 – 1200m – 1:15pm

Time To Sizzle ran a very good race when first up without a trial. That race was back in September, so there are a few question marks as to why she’s had such a big gap between races. From that good barrier, she could potentially lead or just sit behind them. She does step up in distance but has placed at 1200m before (1:0-1-0) and Ascot is one of her favourite tracks (4:3-0-0). I’d be more confident if she was racing on a soft track, but there’s no reason for her to run a bad race here. Western Rhythm comes into this race without a trial, so it’s a bit hard to tell where she’s at fitness wise. However, she does have a good first up record (1:0-1-0) and career statistics (3:1-1-1). She’s drawn wide but her only win did come from a wide barrier, though whether it was more she appreciated the soft conditions in that race is yet to be seen. She has placed at this distance before (1:0-1-0), but I suspect she’ll only improve next start over slightly more distance and one run for fitness. Not without her chances here though. Bolshoi Gal was a bit of her own worst enemy last start, over racing in the middle of the race. Before that, her form was pretty good though, so hopefully she can bounce back here. She has a good distance record (3:0-2-0), though I wouldn’t say that Ascot is her favourite (6:0-1-1). She does get a good barrier, so Jade should be able to settle her into a lovely position. Interestingly, Jade takes over from Chris who has chosen to ride Time To Sizzle (and who he obviously thinks is the better horse). I think she might just find one better here. Devil’s Dust was recording career-best results this preparation, before finishing fifth at Ascot last start. There was nothing written in the stewards’ report to explain this result, but perhaps he just got a little bit further back than he would have liked. He drops 2kg off that run and has a better barrier, so hopefully he won’t get too far back here. His distance record isn’t the best (3:1-0-0) and he’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0), but I think he can run a cheeky race.
2 – Time To Sizzle
11 – Western Rhythm
8 – Bolshoi Gal
10 – Devil’s Dust

Race 3 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1800m – 2:02pm

Truly Great showed a really good turn of foot first up, which resulted in him winning the race. We’ve seen that turn of foot before and I’m hoping that could be the winning difference here. Some people might be concerned about the step up in distance (and to a distance he’s never raced at before), but I think given his racing pattern that should only give him more time to run them down. He did get penalised 3.5kg for that win, but he’s won with 58.5kg before so the 57.5kg here shouldn’t be a problem. He has a good second up record (3:1-1-0) and track record (4:2-1-0). I can totally see why he’s the short priced favourite that he is.  Kelly’s Callisto is also coming off a win, though at a lower class. The form surrounding his races this preparation probably isn’t the strongest, but you can’t knock winning form. He also steps up to 1800m for the first time, which will be interesting, because unlike my top tip, this horse likes to lead and looks to be the obvious pace setter in this race. Mitchell takes the ride due to Chris choosing Truly Great, but this horse has had plenty of jockeys in his time, so it’s not like he only loves to run for one particular person. He drops 2kg due to the rise in class, but I think it’s the quality of this class (in particular my top tip) that might be his undoing. Morning Song looked to have had enough last preparation, so I wouldn’t read too much into that run. She looks to have bounced back with a solid third first up. Her second up record is ok (3:1-0-0) but the 1800m is definitely going to suit her (3:1-0-1). She doesn’t have a turn of foot like her stablemate, so given the wide barrier, she may have to use some energy early on to take up a forward position. That barrier really looks to be the only chink in her armour. However, she will only improve with more distance and runs this preparation. Red Hot Tip finished third behind Truly Great last start and gets 2.5kg on him here as a result. Last preparation he was in great form, finishing second in the group 2 WATC Derby. So, while he’s yet to race over 1800m, it certainly doesn’t look to pose any problems for him. This preparation he did seem a bit flat in his trial and first up run, but last start seemed to blow out the cobwebs. He likes Ascot (5:1-2-1) and can run on if he gets back from the wide barrier. If he brings his group 2 form, he’s right in this and a great value bet. 
5 – Truly Great              
2 – Kelly’s Callisto
6 – Morning Song
4 – Red Hot Tip

Race 4 – All Flags Signs And Banners Handicap – 1600m – 2:37pm

Heaven’s Gift seemed to have just gotten a bit too far back when first up. That race was over a shorter distance than what she would have liked too, so I’m willing to forgive that run. She’s unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and over this distance (1:1-0-0), so I expect her to improve here. She also has a much better barrier. I’d be more confident if she was running on a soft track, but she should run a good race. Sentimental Queen is no longer one of Mr Peters’ horses, which says to me that he thought she wasn’t going to make the grade and wasn’t even good enough to keep as a broodmare. In saying that she did win two starts ago. She does seem to get a bit too far back in her runs and seeing as she’s drawn wide, it may be useful to spend some energy early and take up a more forward position. She’s yet to place at this distance (2:0-0-0) and is probably looking for further. She’s a watch and see for me and how she performs for her new stable and owners. Notorious One had the whole racing world excited after he won his first two races in a nice fashion. However, he was then disappointing when racing at Ascot. There were a few excuses in the stewards’ report, so he has the addition of winkers this time to help improve his behaviour. I’m assuming that Jordan was offered the ride on this horse first but elected to go with Glamour Packed instead. This horse does have a turn of foot but if he’s going to use that in the upcoming feature races, he will need to improve here. Midnight Blue ran a good race first up when finishing second behind Kelly’s Callisto. He was racing well last preparation, though was probably just outclassed slightly in the WATC Derby. He’s yet to place second up (1:0-0-0) but does have a good record at Ascot (4:0-2-1). He can surprise here but will only improve with more distance.
4 – Heaven’s Gift
11 – Sentimental Queen
7 – Notorious One
2 – Midnight Blue

Race 5 – Seacorp Handicap – 1000m – 3:15pm

Tommy Blue looks to be a horse on the way up, with great performances last preparation! He’s yet to win first up (2:0-2-0), but his trial leading into this race does suggest that this can change here. There does look to be a lot of speed in the race, so it will be interesting where he settles in the race. From that barrier he should get too far back. He only win has been at Ascot (5:1-2-1) and he’s placed at this distance before (1:0-1-0). He’s a horse to put in your black book. Miss Frost managed to run on from mid-field to finish third first up. She went into that race without a trial, so she should only improve here, especially with her good second up record (3:0-1-1). The thing I love most about her is her track/distance record (4:2-1-1) and I think this could be her biggest advantage. She can win without surprising. River Beau has had a trial between each run which is interesting to note. The latest one was probably due to his behaviour, but he won that trial so looks to have bounced back well. He’s third up so will fit and he has a pretty good track/distance record (6:2-1-0). Don’t rule him out. Dew West is first up here and comes into this race without a trial. Her first up record isn’t the best (3:0-1-0) so it would have been nice to have seen where she’s at fitness wise in a trial. Her performance last preparation was good, with her second behind We’ve Got Dreams probably being some of her best form. That race was also in a class that was only one lower than this, so she should be up to the standard here. She’s placed at this distance before (3:0-2-0) but may just find one better.
5 – Tommy Blue
7 – Miss Frost
2 – River Beau
10 – Dew West

Race 6 – Quayclean Handicap – 1200m – 3:50pm

Niccovi looks to have found a very suitable race here. Her races in Melbourne were very good, placing third in the group 3 Red Roses this time last year. She then placed third in the lost Placid Ark before having a year off. Her trial and first up race (where she finished third) this preparation were good and I think she should only improve here, especially with the step up in distance. She’s yet to have won at this distance (6:0-3-1) but has won second up before (2:1-0-0). She does rise 3kg off last start’s run due to the drop in class. She’s also drawn wide but given her racing pattern this shouldn’t cause too much trouble. Look for her to get her first WA win on the board here. Comes A Time won first up after coming off a winning trial, beating a horse on the way up in the process. His thirds behind Laverrod and Cliffs Of Comfort is also great form to follow. He’s yet to win second up (2:0-0-1) but he looks to be a better horse this time in. His track/distance record (3:1-0-2) also points to him running a good race here. There’s no reason why he can’t win. Sherpa Lass started off her career really strongly but faded off at the end of last preparation. She had about five months off before finishing third at Kalgoorlie first up. She’s unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and at this track/distance (2:2-0-0), which is definitely something to consider here. Her barrier and weight are also on her side. Hopefully, she can bounce back to her old self here. In Love With Paris hasn’t been seen since this time last year (almost to the day). This certainly raises a few red flags for me, especially as he hasn’t even trialled leading into this race. However, he has a pretty good first up record (4:2-1-0) and track/distance record (9:3-3-1). He also only has to carry 57.5kg with Beaux’s claim. Fitness wise he’ll probably be needing this run.
4 – Niccovi
10 – Comes A Time
8 – Sherpa Lass
2 – In Love With Paris

Race 7 – TabTouch – Prince Of Wales Stakes – 1000m – 4:25pm

Stageman looks primed for this race. He’s third up so will definitely be fit, though he’s actually yet to win third up (3:0-1-1). He’s also yet to win at this track/distance (3:0-1-2) but this distance is one of his favourites (8:3-2-3). Last preparation he was probably a touch outclassed in the Winterbottom, though he did place third in this race last year. With the year off he looks to have come back bigger and stronger. You must always respect the cerise and white in these feature races. Essential Spice put in a good performance last start after getting a bit further back than she would have liked. She has drawn wide here so I do worry that she might find herself in a similar situation. Her second up record is very good (4:1-2-1) as is her track/distance record (4:1-0-2). As long as she gets a clear running, she should run a good race. Valour Road is probably one of the classiest horses in this race, winning one listed race and placing in two earlier in the year. He did all that while carry 58-60kg, so if he can repeat those performances here, he’ll definitely go close. There were no real excuses to the poor performance first up, other than perhaps he needed the run. His second up record (4:1-0-0) and track/distance record (3:1-0-0), also doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence. I would have loved to see him step up to 1200m. However, his class could end in a surprise result. Eeyore Wayz is definitely a bit of an outsider in this race. He doesn’t have listed runs under his belt but still has to carry the same weight as horses that do. The biggest thing in his advantage is that he’s unbeaten at this distance (3:3-0-0). He also has an amazing turn of foot, which combined with the good barrier and forward position could be very deadly. He’s a great value place bet!
5 – Stageman
11 – Essential Spice
4 – Valour Road
9 – Eeyore Wayz

Race 8 – Hosemasters – Asian Beau Stakes – 1400m – 5:00pm

Inspirational Girl is a personal favourite of mine and it’s not hard to love her with those career statistics (9:7-1-1). Despite the good results, she gets in on the minimum here of 54kg. Her runs have been spaced, but this isn’t too much of a concern as she certainly does her best work when she’s fresh. She has a good track/distance record (2:1-1-0) and a good turn of foot. I’d be surprised if she doesn’t at least place! Cup Night got too far back in the Northerly, but still managed to finish fourth. Given that result, connections are probably trying to lock in a Railway start here. He’s drawn much better here, so he should be able to get into a much favourable position. He’s third up record is also good (4:2-0-1), though his results at this track/distance are mixed (4:2-0-0). This time last year he was on fire (even beating The Velvet King) and it looks like he can certainly bounce back to that form here. Taxagano surprised literally everyone last start, coming out and winning the group 3 Northerly at $91/1. Based on last preparation and the one before that, the improved performance could be put down to return to a good track and Ascot. His last 600m was the second quickest in the Northerly (behind Cup Night) so we could very well see another upset performance. He has drawn wide here, and this may result in him sitting just outside Too Close The Sun. We’ll have to wait and see whether last start was a fluke, but he should improve as he gets deeper into this preparation and steps up in distance. Red Can Man hasn’t been his usual perky self this preparation, despite coming off a very good, winning trial. He won a listed race back in July and has won at this track/distance before (3:2-0-0). Look for him to bounce back here.
9 – Inspirational Girl
3 – Cup Night
2 – Taxagano
4 – Red Can Man

Race 9 – Byron Bay Premium Lager Handicap – 1400m – 5:35pm

True Attraction hadn’t been seen for nearly a year since stepping out at trials in September. As always, massive amounts of time off is a concern for me. However, he has had two trials and one race (which he finished second in) leading into this race. That second was behind fellow cerise and white horse, Inspirational Girl, who as I said before, I’m a huge fan of. His only time outside the top three is when he finished fourth in the Fairetha Stakes and WA Guineas two years ago, so a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then. He’s drawn wide, but we did see him handle that challenge last year/preparation, with his turn of foot helping him to overcome it. He’s yet to win second up (2:0-1-1) or at this track/distance (2:0-1-0), but this can certainly change here! She’s Alight should really appreciate the step in distance, especially as she loves to run on from the back. This does always pose the problem that she can get stuck in traffic which looks to have been the case last start. Given her racing pattern, the wide barrier isn’t too much of a concern. She also drops 3.5kg due to the rise in class and has a good second up record (2:1-1-0) and track/distance record (4:2-0-1). With those statistics and her great odds, I was very tempted to put her on top. However, I think my top tip just has an x-factor about him. The Fugazi has won a trial leading into this race. His first up record is also extra impressive (4:2-1-1) and he drops 3.5kg due to the rise in class. Connections would probably be a bit more confident if the rain had come, as he certainly goes better on a soft track. However, he should be right in the finish. Position Of Power has really on put in one bad run this whole preparation, which was his only time outside the top three this preparation (which has consisted of nine runs). He’s drawn another good barrier and teams up with Joey who he loves to run for. This distance is definitely one of his favourites (8:3-3-0) and there’s nothing I can fault. He rounds out an even top four.
6 – True Attraction
11 – She’s Alight
14 – The Fugazi
9 – Position Of Power

Best Bet

Race 3 – Truly Great

Confidence rating

I wouldn’t say my confidence is a complete disaster this week, but races 4, 5, 7, 8 and 9 do look like very even races. I’ve also tipped quite a few favourites and a lot of horses that Chris is riding, so this does make me a touch nervous. Fingers crossed it’s a winning day all round though!

Last Week’s Results

Saturday 24/10/2020
R2 – quinella
Winners in top 4 – 8/9
Top picks: 1st, 2nd, 1st, -, 2nd, -, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd
Best bet: –
Profit: -2.7
Wednesday 28/10/2020
R4 – boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4 – 7/8
Top picks: -, 1st, 1st, 3rd, -, 1st, -, 2nd
Best bet:1st
Profit:+0.94