Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 30/11/2019

Conditions

Rail – 4m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 30, sunny

Race 1 – Tourism WA Trophy – 1500m – 12:24pm

Cockney Crew was meant to race in the Railway Stakes last weekend but had to be scratched due to lameness. However, this suggests he has some class and ability, which is confirmed by his second to Regal Power in the derby. If he can set a good speed and not let them run him down, he should go well. Abdicator won last start after not doing very well in Kalgoorlie. He gets in well with Chloe’s claim and if Cockney Crew gets tired, he’ll be there to run him down. Western Temple has been racing well this preparation and there’s nothing really to fault about him. He meets Abdicator better in the weights and with the small field, he’s not going to get too far back. Superior Smile is up in class after a second last start. He came into that race off disappointing trials, which makes me question last starts performance. He’ll be fit second up, though I’d perhaps be waiting till next start before I put him further up my list.
2 – Cockney Crew
1 – Abdicator
4 – Western Temple
7 – Superior Smile

Race 2 – Mrs Mac’s Plate – 1000m – 1:04pm

Downforce is on the one-week backup, but he is on a winning streak, being two for two this preparation. Despite the weigh, he has the class and ability to win here. Levitate won last start at Bunbury at his second start. His turn of foot two starts ago was also good as were his trials leading into that race. He seems to be another one to keep your eye on and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he won. Put A Spell On You won at her first start and I would expect her to improve on that run, despite Pike jumping off. Her trials suggest that she’s good enough to win here too. Snippy Miss is really another horse you can’t knock. She’s placed in the top four in all of her four starts and again has trialled really well into this race. One thing to note is she came fourth to War Saint at her first start, which is very good form after last Saturday. Although she’s down my list, she rounds out a very strong race.
2 – Downforce
4 – Levitate
8 – Put a Spell on You
6 – Snippy Miss

Race 3 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1100m – 1:44pm

Fire and Rain has had a long time off but going off his trial and what the stable has said, he’s ready to return. The 60kg is a concern and only time will tell if he can overcome this. Rebel Knight ran well last start and meets Undisclosed 2kg better here and will be looking to go one better, with no reason why he can’t win. The Nicconian seems to be back to his old self after a terrible winter. He comes out of the Undisclosed race too where he came third. This race is going to go either way for him, he’ll either do very well or not at all, but he’ll be given every chance from the barrier with Steven riding. Exercise Free is a horse that really intrigues me, she was racing pretty well and has only had two disaster races in his career, but then she was taken to Albany to race (which she won). It’s an interesting path for a horse that has shown potential. She’s now won three in a row which should have helped her confidence (if that was an issue) and while she’s up in class, I’d definitely be keeping my eye on her.
2 – Fire and Rain
8 – Rebel Knight
7 – The Nicconian
4 – Exercise Free

Race 4 – Furphy Handicap – 1800m – 2:24pm

British Bessy won at good odds last start and continued to show she has a good turn of foot. She has a few things going against her this time, including an increase in class and the wide barrier, though she came third two starts ago from a wide barrier and got too far back that time too. Pike also jumps back on. Royal Command won last start and confirmed he’s come back just as good after having a twelve-month break. Chris Graham takes over from Pike, but this is understandable, as Chris puts the horse back in the race with his weight claim. Son of Bacchus was no match for Sublime Image last start, but he still ran a good race. Nothing really stands out with him, but he is consistently up there, and he can do the same here. Scintillating is getting his last chance here. He drops in weight, gets a good barrier and seems to prefer this distance, so with all of that going for him he has no reason not to do well, but whether he does has a question mark over it.
10 – British Bessy
1 – Royal Command
9 – Son of Bacchus
6 – Scintillating

Race 5 – Magic Millions – Tattersall’s Cup – 2100m – 2:59pm

Forceful was just beaten by a better horse in Taxagano last start and only beaten by a small distance. Look for him to bounce back here, despite the increase in distance. Missile Launch has been racing well and also comes out of the Taxagano race. The biggest thing going for him is that he has won over 2200 which gives me confidence. Whether his class can see him winning is a question, but he’ll definitely be in the finish if he brings his previous performances this preparation. Taxagano won last start but meets those horses worse in the weights. While this form looks to be the one to follow, I just have a question mark over his performance at this distance. Spiritual Warrior is another one out of the Taxagano race. The increase in distance should certainly benefit him. He should also be leading and if they’re winning from the front, he’s one to watch.
4 – Forceful
5 – Missile Launch
1 – Taxagano
3 – Spiritual Warrior

Race 6 – TabTouch – Westspeed Platinum Series Final – 1400m – 3:35pm

Sir Mambo was racing so well till he got fourth last start. He’s a very good horse and luckily doesn’t have to carry the 61kg due to Jade’s claim. The wide barrier is a concern, as is the fact that he would prefer a soft track. Not To Be Mist won last start and definitely has ability but he falls victim to a wide barrier and will be carrying the full 60kg, compared to the two above him who makes use of the apprentice weight claim. He’ll be needing a good steer from Pike, luck and skill to be overcome these challenges. Lacewinsky has finished second behind Sir Mambo and Not To Be Mist in his previous two starts. His win record isn’t the best, but his place record is. From that barrier, if he jumps well, he’ll be able to lead like previous runs and if they’re winning from the front then watch out. Position of Power is a pretty consistent horse, running in the top four at every start this preparation. He won at this distance two starts ago after racing greenly, so if he’s improved on that run he’s one to watch a good odds.
1 – Sir Mambo
3 – Not To Be Mist
8 – Lacewinsky
5 – Position of Power

Race 7 – TabTouch – Country Championship Final: The Road to Ascot – 1200m – 4:10pm

Mr Genoa is originally an Eastern States horses who has been unbeaten record since coming to WA. While these wins have only been at Kalgoorlie, they were won in a nice fashion and with three different jockeys on board. Pike re-joins the horse here and while the 62kg may seem like a negative, he has won with 61.5kg before over 1400m. M’Lady is another horse that is unbeaten after moving to the country. She is three for three at Geraldton this preparation. The wide barrier is a concern but the thing I like most about her is that she has city form too, so she can handle the big atmosphere today. Concrete Madame gets into this race after coming second to Mr Genoa. She was unbeaten three starts before that and gets in better in the weights. Nemiroff also placed third to Mr Genoa and while his country form isn’t as impressive, neither is the wide barrier a good thing, I also like how he has raced in the city before.
1 – Mr Genoa
2 – M’Lady
8 – Concrete Madame
5 – Nemiroff

Race 8 – Crown Perth – Winterbottom Stakes – 1200m – 4:50pm

From the point of a racing fan, I’m really looking forward to this race! Trekking will probably start favourite but you can totally understand that with his form, coming third in the Everest and with his incredible turn of foot. I’m really excited to see him race and if he has travelled well and at his best, it’s going to be a tough job for the other horses. Flirtini is the best from the West in my opinion. She’s won two group threes leading into this race, so will be race fit and should be able to settle in a good spot, despite the wide barrier (Regal Power also showed last weekend that horses can overcome wide barriers to win races like this). The Eastern States horses look to be hard to beat but she’ll give them a run for their money. Vital Silver ran quite well this preparation in Melbourne and has good form from the Perth Autumn carnival too. Connections have opted for his Melbourne jockey, who perhaps doesn’t know the horse or track as well as a local jockey, but this horse can make his own luck, being three for three at this track. Endless Drama ran third to Trekking in the winter in a group one. Last start he was disappointing and he hasn’t raced since then (August), which has me slightly concerned, but if he can bring his best then watch out.
1 – Trekking
13 – Flirtini
10 – Vital Silver
9 – Endless Drama

Race 9 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1200m – 5:30pm

Zenaze rises dramatically in class but I think she’s a horse with some ability, given his career record (5:1-2-1) and having won last start. Dance Cockney has drawn wide and Pike jumps off, but he seems to be hitting his straps this preparation and also won last start. Significant Hero also won last start, though that was at Bunbury. He does have turn of foot and perhaps just needed time to mature from the winter. Heart of Coeur has the form behind good horses compared to others in the race and also won last start. I’m just not convinced about him though.
14 – Zenaze
15 – Dance Cockney
16 – Significant Hero
1 – Heart of Coeur


Best Bet

Race 9 – Zenaze

Confidence rating

It could have been better. There are a few value picks which make me nervous, as does how evenly matched some races are.

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