Ascot 30/10/2021

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 25 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Seacorp Handicap – 1600m – 11:04pm

2 – Mahaleo
4 – Success Play
1 – Twice Lucky
7 – Feels Danish

Comment: Mahaleo steps up in distance here, though if he gets back like he has previously, that should only give him more time to run them down. He’s unbeaten at this track thanks to last start’s win (1:1-0-0) and he only has to carry 56kg due to Beaux’s claim. He’s one to watch. Success Play has some of the strongest form in this race. It looks like he’s ready for the step up in distance and he’s placed on a soft track (1:0-1-0). He rises 3kg off last start’s run, but he should go well. Twice Lucky is also coming off a win over 1400m, so he too steps up in distance. He’s yet to race on a soft track, so I do wonder how he’ll handle that. The 60kg is the biggest concern though. Feels Danish improved out of sight last start, with the win perhaps being put down to the fact she led all of the way. She drops back in distance here, so should be able to lead again, especially from barrier 3. She faces some classy horses here though.

Suggested bet: Mahaleo, Success Play and Twice Lucky – each way

Race 2 – Amelia Park Plate – 1000m – 11:44pm

3 – The Front Bar
4 – Ultimate Command
1 – Ain’t No Other Man
6 – Ponyo

Comment: The Front Bar put in a nice trial leading into this race. Se’s actually yet to win first up (1:0-0-0), but that was her first ever run, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. She’s proven on a soft track (4:2-0-1) and at this distance (3:2-0-0), though she’s yet to race at Ascot. Conditions really look to suit her here. Ultimate Command took a while to get going last preparation, but she has won two trials leading into this race. I suspect that she’s also matured since her last preparation. She’s proven at this track/distance (2:1-1-0) and has placed on a soft track (1:0-1-0). She’s ready to rock and roll here. Ain’t No Other Man had a quiet trial leading into this race. His track/distance record is a little bit concerning (2:0-0-0) and there’s no doubt that he’s probably looking for at least 1200m. The biggest thing in his favour is that he’s unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0) and that he only has to carry 57.5kg due to Laqdar’s claim. He has the class to win this. Ponyo handled herself really well last start when stepping up in class. She’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1) and with the small field, she shouldn’t get too far back. Don’t rule her out.

Suggested bet: The Front Bar, Ultimate Command, Ain’t No Other Man and Ponyo – each way

Race 3 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Series Heat 2 – 1200m – 12:30pm

1 – Standout Rose
4 – Smashing
6 – Nowhiteflag
8 – Dais

Comment: Standout Rose really could have placed in the top three at all starts this preparation if she hadn’t got blocked in the straight first up. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:0-0-0) and looks to be really well placed here. There’s a question mark over her soft track (1:0-0-0), but that was at her very first career run down in Mount Barker. She does rise 3kg off last start’s run, but she should run a good race here. Smashing was unlucky not to win last start. She’s got good form surrounding her races and she loves a soft track (4:1-3-0), so fingers crossed for connections that the track doesn’t dry out. She can win at good odds. Nowhiteflag looked really good in a trial leading into this race. He’s placed first up before (1:0-1-0), but other than these conditions are unknown to him. From barrier 1, he should be able to settle in the first few. I’m curious to see how his trial form holds up. Dais is up in class here but is yet to finish outside of the top 2 in her career (2:1-1-0). She steps up in distance but the extra 100m shouldn’t be a problem and she’s unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0). She rounds out a very even race.

Suggested bet: Standout Rose, Smashing, Nowhiteflag and Dais – each way

Race 4 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1400m – 1:15pm

2 – Ginger Flyer
10 – Fashion Queen
12 – Jaguar Grey
1 – Lordhelpmerun

Comment: Ginger Flyer is making her way through the grades nicely. She’s coming off a win and despite dropping back in distance, she’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). She’s also proven on a soft track (3:1-2-0) and only has to carry 57.5kg due to Holly’s claim, which puts her back in the race. She’s going to have to use a bit of energy early on to overcome barrier 12, but she did finish second from barrier 10 two starts ago. Hopefully, she can continue her winning ways here. Fashion Queen is coming off a win at Geraldton in a lower class, but she didn’t finish fourth in a listed race last preparation. This distance is by far her favourite (3:3-0-0) and everything else looks to really suit her. She can easily win this. Jaguar Grey was a touch disappointing last start, with nothing written in the stewards’ report, though she did get a bit further back than she normally does. I thought she was more a 1000-1200m horse, but she has won over 1400m at Ascot before (2:1-0-0). She could surprise. Lordhelpmerun gave us a glimpse of his former self last start where he finished third to Jaguar Grey by the smallest of margins. He went into that race without a trial, so he should take great improvement from the run fitness wise. While statistics aren’t in his favour, he does only have to carry 59.5kg due to Laqdar’s claim but even then, he still has to give Jaguar Grey 1.5kg. He may just find one better here.  

Suggested bet: Ginger Flyer and Fashion Queen – each way

Race 5 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 1:54pm

9 – God Has Chosen
2 – Beret
5 – Secret Statue
6 – Marlize

Comment: God Has Chosen is up in distance here but has previously placed over 1500 in Albany. He’s yet to finish outside of the top 2 in his career (4:2-2-0) and he’s placed on a soft track (1:0-1-0). Pike jumps on board and this horse has a good turn of foot. He’ll make his mark here. Beret didn’t finish that far off Real Charisma last start, which looks like good form to follow. She’s won at this track/distance (3:1-2-0) and the soft track will be in her favour (5:1-2-1). She’s been the bridesmaid at all three starts this preparation, but that can change here. Secret Statue looked to have needed that run first up. Last preparation he lost and won by the narrowest of margins and while he’s placed at this distance (4:0-1-1), he’s yet to place at Ascot over 1400m (1:0-0-0). Laqdar jumps on board, which means he only has to carry 56kg, 2kg less than last start. Barrier 9 is slightly concerning, but he could surprise at good odds. Marlize has been disappointing at her past 2 starts, but her form before that was really good. Whether she’s come to the end of her preparation, we’re about to find out here. She’s another horse that will benefit from the track staying in the soft range (7:2-2-1). Looking for her to bounce back here at great value!

Suggested bet: God Has Chosen and Beret – each way

Race 6 – All Flags Signs And Banners Handicap – 1800m – 2:35pm

1 – Outback Jack
5 – Savanik
6 – Brother Paddy
7 – Real Passion

Comment: Outback Jack was a bit too fresh last start, over racing early on. There was no doubt that he was looking for further, so it’s good to see him step up here to a distance that he’s placed over at Ascot (1:0-1-0). He’s also unbeaten second up (2:2-0-0). The three red flags for me are that he has to carry 60kg from barrier 10 and that he’s never raced on a soft track. If he can overcome these conditions, he can win. Savanik was a bit unlucky two starts ago, because otherwise, he may have won all four starts this preparation. She steps up in distance, but given her racing pattern, this could suit her. She’s also unbeaten on a soft track (2:2-0-0). She’s performing much better this preparation and that should continue here. Brother Paddy has improved at his past two starts, but who knows why. He’s up in class, but I do like his form surrounding Ginger Flyer and Celebrity Witness. He’s up in distance and I hope that for his sake, the track dries out. He may just find one better here, but he is great value, even for a place. Real Passion looked to have needed that confidence boost in Geraldton. I’m still a bit concerned that if she can’t win in Geraldton, can she win here, but Pike does jump back on board, and she has a good weight and barrier. She’s never raced on a soft track or placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-0), but hopefully, she’ll improve here.

Suggested bet: Outback Jack and Savanik – each way

Race 7 – Mumm Champagne Handicap – 1600m – 3:14pm

8 – Real Charisma
3 – Em Tee Aye
2 – Big Bada Boom
5 – Avalon Bay

Comment: Real Charisma showed a really good turn of foot first up, making it her third win in a row across two preparations. She steps up in distance, but she should be able to handle it. She’s also unbeaten on a soft track (2:2-0-0). I’m not surprised to see her open so short. Em Tee Aye finished third behind Real Charisma last start and gets 2kg on her here. He placed fourth in a listed race last preparation, and he’s recorded two thirds out of three runs this preparation. He’s also placed at this track/distance (3:0-1-1) and on a soft track (1:0-0-1). It’s hard to see him turning the tables here though. Big Bada Boom used the wide barrier to his advantage last start and lead all of the way to win. He has a much better barrier here and has he’s up in class, he drops 1kg to 59kg. From barrier 4, he should find the front a little easier and he’s unbeaten at this distance (2:2-0-0). He can easily surprise here. Avalon Bay didn’t seem to perform well for Paul, so it’s good to see Shaun jump back on board here. This horse doesn’t have the best track/distance record (3:0-0-0) but he’s going to appreciate the soft track (5:2-1-1), which could see an improved performance here.

Suggested bet: Real Charisma, Em Tee Aye and Big Bada Boom – each way

Race 8 – Quayclean Handicap – 1000m – 3:52pm

7 – Wilchino
4 – Graceful Girl
9 – Triple Missile
8 – This’ll Testya

Comment: Wilchino is a horse that I sometimes underestimate. She won by such an impressive margin last start. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (3:3-0-0) and the soft track will definitely suit her (5:3-0-1). She’s on the one-week backup, but from barrier 4, she’ll easily find the front and the rest of the field is going to have to try and run her down. Graceful Girl showed a good turn of foot first up and looks to be in for a good preparation. She’s won second up before (2:1-0-1) and is unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0). She’s only placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1), but with her class and ability, that can change here. Triple Missile ticks a lot of boxes too! He’s coming off a win and is unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). He also has a turn of foot and the soft going won’t worry him (2:1-0-1). He’s just unlucky that he runs into a few good horses here, but I wouldn’t rule this horse out! This’ll Testya won a race but has had over a month since that run. She’s won a trial in between though and by a good margin too, so there’s no question mark over whether she’s ready here. Whether she and Wilchino are going to burn each other out too early, seeing as they both will want to go to the front, we’re about to find out. $13 seems a bit ridiculous given that she’s placed at this track/distance (3:0-2-0) and won second up (3:1-1-1) and on a soft track (4:1-1-0), but this race is all class!

Suggested bet: Wilchino, Graceful Girl, Triple Missile and This’ll Testya – each way

Race 9 – TABtouch – Prince Of Wales Stakes – 1000m – 4:30pm

4 – Indian Pacific
5 – Stageman
2 – Elite Street
1 – Rock Magic

Comment: Indian Pacific didn’t quite live up to expectations first, after coming off a winning trial. That was his first time outside of the top 3 at this track/distance (6:4-0-1). Due to the conditions of this race, he doesn’t get any weight on the horses that beat him. At least he should easily find the front from barrier 1 and he has a good soft track record (3:2-0-1). Look for him to bounce back here. Stageman finished third to Elite Street last start. He’s drawn a touch wide here, but he does have a turn of foot to help him overcome it. His track/distance record isn’t the best in the race (5:0-1-3), but I love his soft track record (6:3-2-1) and second up record (5:3-0-2). Look for him to bounce back here. Elite Street is last year’s Winterbottom winner and considering that he’s really well weighted here. He also doesn’t have to give any of the other horses’ weight due to the race’s conditions. He’ll get an ideal spot from barrier 3 and he’s won at this track/distance (3:2-0-0) and second up (3:2-0-0). If I was being picky, some of the other horses have a better soft track record, but I don’t think that should let him down too much here. Even though he’s fourth (now third due to scratchings) on my list, he can easily win this. Rock Magic looked to not be showing any signs of his age, when he finished second last start. He does rise 3.5kg off that run, which is mostly due to the conditions of this race. He’s got a good barrier though and he’s proven at this track/distance (5:1-1-1). He could surprise again.

Suggested bet: Indian Pacific, Stageman, Elite Street and Rock Magic – each way

Race 10 – Hosemasters – Asian Beau Stakes – 1400m – 5:07pm

9 – Western Empire
5 – Kissonallforcheeks
8 – Notorious One
3 – Naughty By Nature

Comment: Western Empire has trialled really nicely leading into this race. Considering he won a group 2 last preparation, he meets these horses incredibly well in the weights. He’s only placed first up (1:0-0-1) and at this track/distance (2:0-1-1), though there’s no doubt that he’s looking for further. He’s also yet to race on a soft track, so there is a slight question mark there. Class should see him at least going close. Kissonallforcheeks has fitness on her side, being third up here. Unlike my top tip, she’s proven at this track/distance (3:2-1-0) and on a soft track (3:2-1-0), so conditions look to suit her to a tee here. She is up in class, but she can match it with the best. Notorious One has been really consistent lately, having yet to place outside of the top 3. It’s been 7 weeks since his last run, but he does go well fresh. I worry that Ascot isn’t his favourite track, but the distance and soft going will suit him. He could surprise. Naughty By Nature missed the jump last start, so placed herself at a disadvantage early on. I would have liked to see her step up in distance but her soft track record is her biggest advantage (5:2-1-2). She’s a sneaky chance.

Suggested bet: Western Empire and Kissonallforcheeks – each way

Race 11 – Byron Bay Premium Lager Handicap – 1800m – 5:45pm

4 – Roman Flirt
2 – Midnight Blue
3 – Son Of Bacchus
7 – Temptacion

Comment: Roman Flirt is looking to make it 3 wins in a row. She drops back in distance, but thanks to her run two starts ago, she’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). Connections probably would have preferred a good track, but she has won on a soft track before (6:2-0-1). There’s no reason for her to run a bad race. Midnight Blue improved with each trial, but Pike does jump off in favour of Roman Flirt. Laqdar takes the ride though and as a result, he only has to carry 58.5kg, which puts him back in the race. He’s won at this track/distance (2:1-0-1) but is yet to race on a soft track. He’ll be on track for the Perth Cup, so despite his good record at this distance, he will only improve over further. Son Of Bacchus has good form surrounding his races, including winning last start and beating Karijini Aurora in the process. He’s up in distance but has placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). The only red flag for me is that he’s yet to place on a soft track (6:0-0-0). Temptacion steps up in class, so drops 3kg off last start’s run. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), but the wide barrier and soft track (3:0-0-1) may cause her a few problems. She can run on to some extent though, so hopefully, that will offset the barrier.

Suggested bet: Roman Flirt, Midnight Blue, Son Of Bacchus and Temptacion – each way

Best Bet

Race 7 – Real Charisma

Quaddie

R8: 4, 7, 8, 9
R9: 1, 2, 4, 5
R10: 5, 9
R11: 2, 3, 4, 7

Confidence rating

My confidence is on the low side this week. I’m confident that my top tips should do well and hopefully place but in terms of winning, there are often 2 or 3 horses fighting for that position. Races 2, 5, 7 and 11 are my most confident, while races 4, 6, 8 and 10 look to be a battle between my top two tips.

Last Week’s Results

R3:exacta
R5:exacta
R6:boxed first 4
Winners in top 4:7/9
Top picks: 3rd, -, 1st, -,1st, 2nd, 3rd, -, –
Best bet: 1st
Quaddie: Yes
Profit: +1.6 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)